Watch Our Earnings Recap on Eli Lilly, McDonalds, YUM! Brands, Disney, Airbnb, Caterpillar, and More

Let's get started then.

Start off with a quote that might make a little more sense after seeing David's screen there with Sweetgreen. Earnings season is about understanding what the numbers actually mean and where the market is mispricing the story. Welcome in. This is our monthly podcast, and today we're combining it with our earnings watch parties. I am Kyle Guskey. We're here with David Trainer as well. Start off with the disclosures and disclaimers. The main thing is we are not providing advice. We are a publisher, but you can check these out in our replay. For the monthly podcast today, we're going to touch on a few different topics and then jump into the earnings watch party. Our next podcast, we do these, like I said, we're saying monthly, once a month. If you're signed up for this one, you are already signed up for that one as well. So you don't have to resubscribe there. You'll get alerts on it when it comes up as well. So you can join then. But going over a little bit of our latest research since we last talked on this monthly podcast, we published a few different long idea updates, some danger zone updates, published model portfolios once a week, both between updates of the monthly portfolios, like most attractive, most dangerous dividend portfolios. And we've had a few different focus list updates as well. Those are not necessarily monthly, but more as we go through our long idea and danger zone picks and decide what should be on the focus list, which should be taken off. So we had a few updates there. We've posted our best and worst by sector and style reports. So you can check out all of the research on all the sectors and styles, deep dives on best mutual funds, worst mutual funds, best and worst ETFs as well. I've had a few different feature and product enhancement posts. We talked about that in our last podcast here. We've also sent out some emails about those as well. And lastly, free stock picks. Every week we're putting out the featured stocks in our model portfolios. And we've also started publishing some of the featured stocks in our— in the Bloomberg New Constructs indices as well. So check those out as a brief look into what a long idea or danger zone kind of report would look like. Today's agenda, we're gonna talk about footnote season a little bit, talk about those indices I just mentioned. Some of the posts and trade idea discussion on our community, some upcoming training sessions, and jump into the earnings watch party. But to kick it off with the footnotes season is upon us. We are in the middle of the, I guess, what is it, 2Q25 filing season, footnotes season, where we're getting all the 10-Qs for companies with a normal calendar year. Right now through August 6th, you know, starting from July 24th through August 6th, we're up to almost 1,300 filings we've parsed so far, which is a little under, I think, half of what we did last 2Q. So we're, you know, just halfway there parsing these, getting them into the models. We look at, you know, the value created upwards of $1.1 million if you're paying someone, you know, $100 an hour to parse each of these filings, and we're knocking it out all in you know, 24 hours to get these into our new models as soon as we get the filings in. So a ton of work going into getting all these earnings into models and the models out to you guys through all our ratings. You know, whether you're a Stock Tracker 50 or pro or institutional member, all this work goes into those ratings that you see on the website. And also, it goes into the indexes that we've got with Bloomberg. And all that work drives outperformance. And we talk about this Weekly, almost in everything we're presenting, every training we do, because it's important, you know, the performance of these indices proves our value add. We've got stock picks that outperform the market, we've got ratings that outperform the market. And we've got indices to back that up. The Various Attractive Stocks Index, which holds only very attractive stocks, outperformed the S&P by just under 1% in the first half of the year. But over the past 5 years, this is through August 1st, beat the S&P by over 66%. So it's not an immaterial number there. You've got huge outperformance on the very attractive stocks index. And we've also got the Bloomberg New Constructs 500 return, we call the core earnings weighted S&P 500. It only picks the top 500 companies in the US market. And instead of weighting them by market cap, weights them by core earnings, which is, you know, proven superior measure of earnings. And that also leads to outperformance, you know, just a little bit in the first half of the year, but then big outperformance over the last 5 years as well. So we're very proud of these 2. And then the last one, also the Core Earnings Leaders Index, which leverages our core earnings and earnings distortion to find the most understated earnings in the market, beats the S&P by around 7% in the first half, and then 36% over the past 5 years. So we're happy to see the success that we've seen in some of our own data and then in actively traded indexes as well as real proof of the alpha our data can bring. These indexes we talked about, they're not publicly traded, you know, they're not available for purchase. But you do get all the research directly from us, like all of our ratings, all of our core earnings data is driving these indices. And so that is exactly what you get from us when you are a member. To our ratings and all of our research as well. Let's see. I think I just touched on this one. But you know, you're getting all that data through our ratings. So we always bring that to you guys. And one of the ways we do that, we'll transition here into the community. We'd love to hear from you guys. We've got a community if you haven't joined it yet. I think it's newconstructs.com/society. We can also send out that link as well. We've got members, you know, Paid members, non-paid members on our site that go to the community to trade, share trade ideas, discussions. Right now, just this past one, we've got, you know, a nice post on AI and Excel and spreadsheets. We've got a lot of AI, you know, apps coming out trying to get into the Excel and spreadsheet game. So nice discussion going on there. We've got some good community members and trades and option discussions. You know, this just this past week, I think it was on Gilead, Sunrun, Peloton, and Aflac. Some option trading strategies there. So a nice way to layer into our existing research. If you are a paid member, you might notice some of these tickers from some recent reports, and a way to layer that option discussion onto that. Because, you know, we're not normally doing option research, but our members are. And so you guys can benefit from that. So we want to hear from you guys in that community, jump in and share your own thoughts, share what you're looking at, we can dive in You know, David and myself are on there. We've got some other members as well. We can have a great, just a way to, you know, discuss further the research that we're already putting out. You can join the community here. That link will be available in the replay. We will share the slides when we post that. And we'll share that in the chat as well, as soon as I turn it over here, if you're not already a member of that community, but we also post all these replays in the community. And so I want to talk about some of those upcoming and recent training sessions. Recent trainings, we've been doing the earnings watch parties. If you have not checked them out, you're going to find out one at the end of the thing. At the end of today's training, we've done earnings watch party on July 30th, August 1st, and August 6th this past week. Unfortunately, there was no recording on the August 1st. You had to catch that one live. You'll notice there was a lot of big names there, but going over the biggest names in the market, some of the most interesting names in the market, and covering those in depth as we'll do in just a few minutes here. But as for the upcoming trainings, I wanna make you guys aware of, we do have our Ideas Dinner August 19th, which is available for pro and higher members only. David'll talk with those members, dive into our, you know, current long ideas, potential long ideas, questions they might have. And we do have an August deep dive training coming up on August 20th. We'll be looking at current market trends and how to leverage our AI to make sense of earnings season and beyond. You know the entire market and how you can use our tools to really dive in and make sense of what's going on. That was a lot. That was quick, but that is because we want to get to the main event. Got our earnings watch party coming up, so I will turn that over to David. We got quite a few tickers to get through today.

Alrighty, let's do it. Good to be with you guys today, and it's always fun when one of the stocks that. we have warned about for a long time shows up with a big resounding, hey, we told you so kind of message. Sweetgreen, let's see, zombie stock number 31 back in March 2013. We put it in the danger zone before the IPO. Here's the pre-IPO report. Yeah, this was one of my favorites. This is a great chart. I remember you put this together, Kyle, and I was like, oh my God, this is a great way to point out just how much competition.

Yeah.

the company's facing. And I think it's important for people to recognize that, like, these companies aren't— companies aren't born into a vacuum. It's a capitalist system. There's competition. If you're making a lot of money, people coming after you. And it's not like all the delis in New York that have been doing this same salad kind of thing for 30 years aren't gonna— are gonna stop doing it because, oh, you know, Sweetgreen's doing it, so, you know, we're just gonna give the business up. I mean, Anyway, really, it's kind of a dumb idea as an IPO, period. Dumb idea. Not making any money. Probably never going to make money. And we're going to lead off with this one today just because it's something we warned about. Zombie stock list, danger zone, focus list short, down 80% since the IPO. How low can it go? You want to know? We have seen things get better. But still negative, negative earnings, negative economic earnings, negative margins, like still really negative, negative 10%.

Yeah, not a good sign when you see that up and to the right, but it's still negative.

Yeah. Yeah. I mean, look, I mean, it's going to get better as a business, but like, come on, we're selling lettuce here, folks. So lettuce and toppings. And don't get me wrong, I don't dislike the product. Keep— remember, Like, we have a Chopped near us here in our offices. It's probably where we go to eat most often. It's awesome. Love it. Been, I've been getting those sort of custom salads ever since, you know, I was in New York in the, in the mid-'90s. Like the delis, they have like a little thing. They have a bunch of, if you ever been, they, you go in, they have like one of those same little containers that you get from a Sweetgreen or anywhere else. They, they like have a bunch of 'em stacked back. They pull it off. There's a salad thing with all the different toppings. They put it in there, mix it up before you go. I mean, this is not a new idea. It's a money-losing idea when you're doing it the way Sweetgreen's doing it, where there's that much competition. Look at all this free cash flow, negative free cash flow, negative economic book value. What's the economic book value here? Negative $10 a share. And it's still trading at around $12. This one probably goes to zero, folks. I just, I don't know how. I don't know. I don't know how it ever does anything.

That $12 a share was before today. It's around $9 a share now.

That's— yes, good point. That was yesterday's close. So, so you have to—

To your own horn a little bit on market timing, we did post an update on Sweetgreen at the beginning of this year because it had a, I think, +200% 2024. We wanted to, you know, jump in front and be like, hold on guys, this is not warranted.

There it is.

Now we're down, you know, 70% plus this year.

Good call, Kyle, right? I like this. This is a good title. Some of our titles are better than others. This is one of the best ones. This salad is not good for your portfolio. Yeah, that was the beginning of the year. We put it back in because it had been going up so much. Its rise in recent months compels us to remind investors of its serious downside risk.

Boom.

Okay, let's talk about some more stocks. And keep in mind, put your questions in the Q&A. If you're new, let us know. We like to say, give a special shout out to those that are new to the community. And if you have requests, if we have time at the end, we will probably take a couple requests and put your tickers into the system and give you a review. But let's go. We usually like, I usually like to go here in terms of market cap. Eli Lilly. So yeah, Eli Lilly's got some interesting news here lately. They have a weight loss drug that they talked about, but I don't think it's doing as well as people thought. Obesity. The obesity pill shows modest late-stage trial results. Worst day in years. Slide is WeightShare. Let's see, how do they do? Raises full-year earnings forecast on surging demand for weight loss. So good earnings report, but which we predicted, but not enough good news on the weight loss drug. This is a great example of good company. Expensive stock. What happens when things get expensive? Doesn't matter if you blow the number out of the water. If you don't give me the good news I want in every single way, going to get crushed.

Right.

So Eli Lilly, you know, a stock that we were really early on. This is one of our all-time great picks. I think we were early on this thing, so early on it that it was up like, I don't know, thousands of percent since we first identified it. But Yeah, but it got expensive, right? Same thing with Nvidia. We were in Nvidia. We're telling people to buy Nvidia when it was like split-adjusted $0.25 a share or something. And that's our, that's our, that's our, that's our way. We were going to be really early. We're going to jump off earlier than maybe some people would. But that's our, that's our risk nature is to take the gains and not hold really expensive stocks, which is not the greatest strategy in a world where things get super expensive. But when you look at the performance, as Kyle pointed out, of our ETFs or our indices and our stock picks, we still do pretty darn well. So, from a risk-adjusted perspective, I think new constructs is really crushing it for folks. That's Eli Lilly. Good company, bad stock, which is why the stock got crushed. We should be getting the new 10-Q in the system. If this came out yesterday, it will be up and ready by midnight tonight. All right, Advanced Micro Devices. What was the word on Advanced Micro? I don't remember. Been looking at a lot of earnings. I think they did pretty well. Flat really this week. So I think this is around the earnings report and bounced back. So it was not a great report. Trying to remember earnings live. 2nd quarter miss. 2nd quarter miss. So This was a miss, which I guess we predicted. And yet the stock held up pretty well. Surprising given how expensive it is. I would have imagined this would have been something that took a pretty big hit. It looks like it did for a day or so, but then bounced back. Look, everything semiconductors is popular and exciting. So what can I say? It's a really expensive stock and it's obviously got some backing. So We just— we actually updated the models of yesterday. Got a new 10-Q. The credit rating looks a little bit better. The stock still looking pretty bad, folks. I mean, you've got negative economic earnings, positive accounting earnings. That's a pretty big spread. I wouldn't trust that. I wouldn't trust people selling stock into a jacked-up stock price is what you've seen here in '22 and a little bit more in the, in the In the following years. So be careful, be careful with AMD. McDonald's. Oh, one of our best ever long ideas. Long time ago we wrote this thing up and I remember we were just sort of building out the team and it took us a while to get this one done. And the more work we did, the better, the better, the more we liked the stock and just the better the report was. And it was such a no-brainer. Back when it was all green here and greens over here, stock was cheap. Gosh, it was a no-brainer. And anyway, it was a lot of fun, a lot of fun writing that report, the original McDonald's report way back in the day.

And I think, I think that was back in 2012 or '13 or so.

Yeah, was it that far back? Were you with us back then, Kyle?

I was right after that.

Okay.

Yeah, I remember those. Yeah.

That was Andre. Andre and I worked on that report a bunch, and it helped us kind of also flesh out our template in the wiki for how we write a long idea. It's all the questions you need to ask around competitive position, peers, growth, profitability, all that, and then valuation. And yeah, the issue with McDonald's, I think they had a great report. But the issue with McDonald's is it's gotten expensive. It's really seen a bunch of ups and downs, but it's really been since we wrote that. What'd you say, 2018 or something?

No, this would have been late 2012.

Okay. Yeah. So, it's done really well since then. Late 2012. Yeah. Done really well since then, too. But yeah, that means, look, I mean, I'll be honest with you folks. Stuff that we discover doesn't stay undiscovered for long. We do good work. We've had great picks. We've got a great track record. People pay attention when we highlight a stock. You know, I would pay attention. I would act sooner rather than later, considering the fact that our track record is as good and people understand that. So yeah, so McDonald's has just gotten expensive, folks. I mean, this is why we always say you got to get there early. And despite, I think, a good, a good like sales rebound, Hammer's value message. I think they had a good quarter after earnings beat. Yeah, sales rebound, things look good. But you know, what are we seeing? Blah, right? It's not a sexy stock, so the valuation doesn't look ridiculous. But this is expensive. This is expensive. It's not crazy expensive. And it's a neutral rating, and you guys know what I say about neutral ratings, right? Meh. Like, you know, you don't need to short, you don't need to go long. It's just the market's getting it right, and the market's going to get it right on the majority of stocks. That's what a semi-efficient market does. It gets value right on the majority of stocks. And thank goodness we live in a semi-efficient market. Perfectly efficient doesn't give us any opportunity to do anything. Completely inefficient means There's no reason to do any work because it won't do any good anyway. So semi-efficient is what you want to be in, and that's what we have. So let's take a look at Disney. This one is, it's kind of been a thorn in our side for the last few years. It's a focus list stock that did really, really well. Then COVID came and then so did a bunch of other stuff. And, you know, they, they let, they let go of the great CEO they had for a while when we first put them on the focus list. I'm blanking on his name. Yeah.

Bob Iger.

Bob Iger. Bob Iger. Yeah. And they brought him back. I thought that was good. I think the whole Netflix thing kind of just messed with them because Netflix was a horribly unprofitable business. And but they had so much backing that they could use capital as a weapon. I'm borrowing that phrase from Bill Gurley. I thought that was an awesome insight when he brought that concept up and he talked about Netflix like it was an irrational, bad business, lost tons of money. But they had so much capital they could use as a weapon to sustain an irrational business. And now it's profitable, but it's still super overvalued. And yeah, Disney's like, they're figuring it out. I think the theme park stuff has fallen back. We keep thinking we're going to see and expect a rebound here. And I remember in some of the reports we've written on Disney over the years, It's a really good chart. This is, this is it. This is the money chart. This is a business that's done a, done a bunch of acquisitions, and yet the return on capital just kept rolling. And I don't know if that's been the case since with the Fox acquisition. Uh, and so yeah, but they bought Star Wars. They paid a lot of— they paid huge money. People like, oh my God, that's way too much. Wrong. And, and so it's tough. Stuff. They're pretty dominant, not as dominant. So yeah, we think about this one a lot. Every time I come around, I'm like, oh my gosh, I don't know about Disney. It's got a lot of red here. Still on our focus list. And that's a good example of like our ratings aren't everything. Ratings are awesome, right? I mean, I think Kyle pointed out, you know, in the beginning, we talk about it all the time. The very attractive stocks as a portfolio are proven to outperform in the live Traded indices on Bloomberg. But the rating is the beginning. Sometimes it can be the beginning and the end. When we first liked Disney, it was attractive rated, I believe. It was a long time ago we first wrote that report, but I'm almost positive it was attractive rated. And then things moved against it and it got better, then it's worse again. So, an interesting situation. And I would tell you, if you ever have insight into a business and you know that the quality of earnings is going to meaningfully improve, Then you know you really owe it to yourself to to use a DCF model here and and try typing in different forecasts around like what we do here on the forecast page, typing in different forecasts. Like for example, for Rivian, if we believe their margins can go to 20%, well then the stock actually might be it's cheap. It only needs three years of growth. Now that's three years at 33%. Revenue growth and a very dramatic improvement in return on capital, which I can highlight for you here. All right. So, you're going to see return on capital go from negative to very positive, 13.9%. So, you know, can they do that? They've never been close to making a profit on a car or truck. But that's what this kind of analysis allows you to do. If you believe in that kind of a rebound, well, let's model out what that would imply and how that looks. We've done that with Disney and we still like it, which is why it remains on the focus list. But look, I spent a lot of—

That same chart is really interesting for Disney too, because we saw that one you pulled up in the report and the trend looks identical except there's a massive drop from 2019 to 2020. Oh yeah. So, you know, they've continued up into the right, but they started from such a lower base after 2020. So yeah, ROIC before 2020 was around 14% and it fell down to 2%. Now we're up to 6%.

Here we are. Here we are. Yeah, up into 14%. And so there's a huge drop. Whoops. Huge drop down. And we're coming back, but we got a ways to go. And you see this return on tangible invested capital much higher because that's going to exclude the acquisitions. That's putting us right back into that 14% range. But the rest of the business has still got to come. This is a great example of why return on real capital, not just tangible capital, which excludes Intangibles. That's why it's important, because I think that's why the stock has suffered, because they spent a lot of money on the acquisitions and that's weighing down the business. I do like to see shares outstanding going back down here. That's a good sign. That's showing some confidence. I believe that management has it. Iger's gonna hopefully get things turned around. All right, Caterpillar. Neutral rating. Good company, bad stock, expensive. This is, yeah, this is a good example of, I think, another popular stock among sort of your old school stocks. Caterpillar, an industrial, it's been pretty popular. I think they had a decent report, but I think they did say tariffs hurt them a little bit. Maybe not as much as expected. Stock down 3%. So not a ton. Yeah. But it's, you know, good company, not such a great stock. That's the takeaway. So until we see some dramatic improvement in profitability or significant decrease in valuation, this is a neutral. Meh. Don't touch it. Don't play with it. AppLovin. This is one of those high-flying stocks. Yeah. Good profits. Very expensive. What did these guys do recently? Doing well today, doing well this week. Looks like they had a pretty good beat. Apple epic fallout as stock pops. Apple even sees the benefit. Second quarter financial results yesterday. Looks like they had a good quarter. Well, one of those popular stocks, folks. You can ride the merry-go-round or ride the musical— play the musical chairs until the music stops. And when it does, you know, I think we're looking at this stock— what is it, $437 a share now? Let's see. Let's look at economic book value. It's around $43. So you know, look, I think this thing probably ought to trade around $100. You know, back in here where it is back in this range, that probably makes sense. This is these are crazy times. So if you're playing this stock, you're playing, you're speculating, you're not investing. It's way too expensive. Period. Pfizer. This is one that was attractive for a while. I think they've taken a step back in profitability. It's an interesting story. So we've seen a lot. We've talked a lot in these. In these sessions around good company, bad stock. Well, we got bad company, good stock here with Pfizer. And so, that's a very interesting situation, especially if you believe that the profitability is temporarily depressed. And so, look, there's economic earnings, took a big hit. We'll probably see the same thing return on capital. If the company can get back to some of these places, now, these are maybe COVID numbers, with COVID vaccines, so they'll never be back in that place. But if you do believe that they can get close to back to that, you're talking about a really, a pretty, pretty, pretty amazing potential opportunity for stock because it is very cheap and it's expecting that profits are not just going to be bad, but get a lot worse. This 0.7 is telling us that the market's implying that the company's profits will permanently decline by 30%. And the economic book value of this business, right, is at $33 a share when the stock price is at $24 a share. So this is a value play if you think that the business is not going to continue to be in decline. If you think they turn this around, this could be a tremendous pick, be a tremendous pick. So I think they had a pretty good week this week, up 4%, pretty strong earnings. The turnaround has truly started. So this is one of those where I tell you not much of the turnaround is priced in. So they had a nice beat and the turnaround is not priced in. So depending on what you think about Pfizer, that could be a pretty tremendous opportunity. Airbnb, infinite return on capital. They got no invested capital. Their working capital is negative because they get paid before they actually have to pay out, right? Because people pay for the pay-to-stay when they reserve. Money comes out, at least the deposit, and then they're not having to pay the people who own the property until I think people use the property, right? So that's a spread they can take advantage of. But all the good news here is priced in, my friends. Airbnb expensive. How'd they do this week? Down 8%. Wall Street is cautious. Tough months ahead. Yeah, I think the outlook on a lot of consumer discretionary spending has not been so strong. And so It could be a time for Airbnb to maybe not see as much growth or profitability as they've seen in the past. And look, I mean, it's kind of flatlining. It's, you know, pretty— I mean, economic earnings are pretty low for a company that has return on capital this high. But yeah, just $3.69 a share, less than accounting earnings as normal. Yeah, I would say this is a dangerous stock in general just because the valuation's so high. It's a great business model, but there's VRBO. And again, you're not doing something that special. We went from— it's a nice innovation, right, that people are able to get utility out of homes and properties that they don't use all the time. They can rent it out. I recently stayed in a place I think was probably owned by somebody's grandparents. And they're like, okay, well, what do you do with the house? Middle of nowhere. Why don't we put it on VRBO? And I was down in the middle of nowhere for a wrestling camp and we stayed in this place and it was kind of funny. We called it Grandma's House. And so, the family can get something out of that. That's a good thing. Are there infinitely high margins in that? No. Huge amount of growth and profitability in that forever? No. So, I think the good news here is all priced in, folks. I'd move on to something else.

Yum Brands.

Why do we put Yum Brands on the list, Kyle? I think because a bunch of these—

Yeah, we had a lot of restaurant/fast foods.

Yes, reporting.

Reporting.

Yeah, so kind of a— I think it was sort of a not great report for Yum, and they're down a bit. Looking at the stock, good company, not super expensive. So, you know, not a great, not a great report. But since it wasn't super expensive, didn't need to get killed. You know, neutral is safer than unattractive and very unattractive, period. And I think we're seeing that play out here. So nothing too exciting.

That rating looks interesting only because it is very similar to McDonald's as well. So you've got a little bit of the same happening with both Yum and McDonald's.

Yeah. Yeah. You know, I think, look, with so much money flooding into the market, I made a joke about this a long time ago. People realize, hey, you know, since the meme stock flood or whatever, and I think meme stocks 2.0, we haven't seen them go as high or stay there as long. And I think people got smarter, like, you know, if I'm going to speculate and pile into a stock, isn't it better to do that in something like Berkshire Hathaway or McDonald's? Because that won't go to zero. Whereas GameStop and Kohl's and some of these other complete junk stocks, they may go to zero. So there's maybe a little more reward, but way more risk. And so why don't you pile in? Pile into a Yum or pile into McDonald's. It's a better way to go. Yeah, here we go. QSR, another restaurant stock. Looks a little cheaper, but you're right. You know, these 2 look exactly the same, right? You got, well, they got green-green for Yum. And I think so did McDonald's, right? Was McDonald's a green-green? Yeah, green, green. QSR, Restaurant Brands International, not as good, but yet it's a little cheaper. So, but still neutral. Kind of makes sense. Hey, not as high-quality business, going to have a cheaper valuation. Neutral. Same idea. I'm getting a new queue into these. By the way, folks, this is my— this is our professional subscription. And this is sort of the Cadillac. Of new constructs capabilities, and you get a lot of information there. So QSR down 5%. Maybe it wasn't so cheap before that happened. We can take a look at that. We can go to rating history, and it's been neutral for a bit. Let's see. Yeah, I think it was probably neutral coming into this. So still a little bit expensive. But you know, with the the price decline this week, probably helped with this rating, but didn't affect this one or this one as much. Maybe they were a little bit higher. Who knows? But yeah, neutral rated stock. All right, let's take a couple of requests. Go with what came in first. Let's see here. Dac Danos Danaos Industrials. What is Danaos? What kind of company is that? Greek shipping company. Oh, doesn't even have a website here on Google. Not a good sign or summary of the— sorry, doesn't even have a company summary.

Yeah. Yeah. Seabourn Transportation. Yep.

Greek shipping company, I'm guessing. So we get questions about these guys a lot and, and we always see these really super low valuations. I think there's a lot of risk. I think there's sometimes some manipulation of numbers that I've seen people accuse these companies of. I guess goes in and out of coverage, possibly because filings are intermittent. Looks pretty profitable. Looks really cheap. Yeah, I also know that the ownership structures in these are sometimes can be a little bit complicated. So I just been I've been told to be careful about about about these stocks. All right, two more. TTD, the Trade Desk. Somebody was talking about this recently. I saw a bunch of talk about it. Good company, bad stock. So yeah, no one else to say. Good company, bad stock. Very expensive. Very expensive. What was I seeing in the headlines about Trade Desk? Do they have a good report? Oh no, they got crushed here recently. Okay. Tariff impact on advertisers. Yeah, that's what I saw. Got crushed. Guess they probably had a bad earnings report. I guess we predicted that despite the fact that it's been getting crushed, my friends, it has still got a ways to go. So maybe that's mostly all today. Okay. I'm guessing that 33% puts it down to $55 a share. How much farther could it still go? Let's go take a look at the price to economic book value. Is around 6. It's still at 88. I would not take a look at this thing and I, you know, we'll be able to crunch the numbers when they come out. But I'm thinking this thing has got to get well below $40, $30 a share before it begins to look attractive. Alrighty, last one. I like to talk about this one because this was— I remember when a long time ago we were talking with some folks at Motley Fool about kind of using more new construct stuff. And when we were in a meeting with a bunch of the people on the research team, And they brought up MongoDB and we pulled it up and it looked like this. And they're like, oh, it's wrong. I didn't want to hear it. They'd already decided they liked MongoDB. And I remember thinking, these guys are just like, everybody's just a speculator these days. Like, this is part of their sort of their analytical team. They didn't want to hear any of it. And I was very straightforward. I was like, okay, look, here's why it looks expensive. And we did a reverse DCF on it. And it was just like, look, man, it implies like 30% compound annual growth in profits for many, many years. And it was just ridiculously overvalued, as you see now. And it still is. But you can see with the stock price, it's been a terrible underperformer pretty much just about every timeframe for this many years, 2008, compared to the S&P. Right? It's going to be dramatically underperforming, you know, overall. For a little while, it looked really good, and that was short-lived. Even in today's crazy market, you know, it's, it's looking pretty bad. But you can see compared to the S&P, it's been a pretty bad performer year to date, 1 year, 5 year, 5 days, 1 day. This is a great example of a stock to avoid.

For sure.

Okay, thanks everybody for being with us today. We had a nice big crowd. Appreciate the questions, the requests. We'll send out a recording, and otherwise have a great weekend, and we'll see you next week.