Watch Our Earnings Recap on Exxon, Chevron, Cigna, Advanced Micro Devices, and More

Hello everybody, welcome to our latest earnings watch. We've got a shorter list today, so we'll go into a little more depth, but we've got a lot of variety in this list. We've got a lot of different industries we're covering. Thanks for getting your requests in for looking at specific stocks. We are going to be running through The list that I sent out in the email, and we're going to be showing off our professional membership and going through sort of what you get to see when you're looking at that membership. So the list of stocks we're looking at today, I've got it up here on Google to just see what you know what's moving. Why don't we start with Arista? Because it's it's getting crushed today, and over the last five days, last month, it's doing great. I think we saw that big big jump in all the tech stocks year to date still down pretty bad. So. This little blip we have here in the last month is not enough to compensate for what we saw in the beginning of the year, where I think we've seen a reset. They beat, but they missed on guidance. So what does new construct say about Arista? So going down here, I got it on my list. I created a portfolio of these tickers to look at today. And I would say we called it probably dead on here. We had a beat. So those guys, they beat on earnings in the current quarter. So we had that part right, but they had lowered some guidance. And that's kind of what we see in our rating here, where you've got great quality of earnings, good company, bad stock, or expensive stock. And that good company, bad stock thing, if you all have been on these with me before, you know what that means is that Look, expectations are really high. This is an expensive stock. What do I mean by expensive? I mean that the future cash flow performance embedded in the stock price, the price implied expectations for cash flow are way too high. Way too high. This metric in particular, the market implied growth appreciation period, looks to measure the number of years assuming consensus earnings estimates or consensus growth rates, the number of years of profit growth required to justify the price. Over 100 years. That's a really long time. That's really expensive. That means anything but really, really, really good news is going to send the stock down. Price for perfection is, is really the way to think about that. And if you want to kind of get a deeper breakdown here into Arista, you can see economic earnings, reported earnings looking pretty good. The earnings beat, the earnings distortion beat score comes from this section. And, and that's because we're seeing core earnings slightly above GAAP earnings. Notice that core earnings are different from economic earnings. Core earnings are just a cleaner income statement. It's like the cleanest income statement. That's the number that we put up against Wall Street estimates, pro forma estimates, company estimates, reported GAAP earnings. That's our super clean traditional earnings number. That number by itself is shown to have alpha. By alpha, I mean specifically there are ETFs or indices, I should say they're indices, not yet ETFs, But there are indices that are based on core earnings. For example, this is an index. Bloomberg has put these indices together that compares the S&P based on market cap weighting, which is traditional S&P, versus an S&P holdings with core earnings as the weighting criteria. And if you see here, if you weight stocks based on core earnings, you see significant outperformance. Significant outperformance in the long term and in the short term. We don't even pick the stocks, we just weight them more intelligently. And the outperformance here is even more impressive. And then look, if you're interested in our ratings, there's an index based entirely on our ratings. It outperformed significantly so far this year, but over 5 years, you're getting close to a double of the S&P 500, not quite a double, but close to it. So there's real value in this analysis and this data. Real, real value in the data. You get the ratings here. And by the way, that very attractive stocks index, that's what it means. It holds all the stocks that get a very attractive rating. So you can have a good business, good quality of earnings, and Arista does 100% return on invested capital. That's outstanding. But the valuation is expensive. And we see a lot of that these days. Look, the market has been awash with liquidity for a long time. I mean, ever since COVID right? We don't have to look too far at the Fed's balance sheet. Here, and we can see liquidity has just been kind of nutty, right? This was COVID, right? And we've so we've really not come back. This is a great financial crisis. Bam! Well, we loved it. We got addicted to it. Let's do it some more. Everything looks great. Oh, COVID! We know how to fix that. Bam! So we are awash in liquidity, which is why we've seen markets, I think, be as volatile as they've been this year, because people are like, oh my gosh! Are we suddenly going to get efficient? Are we suddenly going to be held accountable for capital allocation decisions? And they got scared. They started selling because they know there's a bunch of junk out there. Well, then risk came back on and people started buying indiscriminately again. I want to be really clear that we are here to help you make intelligent capital allocation decisions. That's what we do at New Constructs. There's no hype. There's no conflict. There is no narrative. There simply is the risk-reward Any good? Does it make sense? Should you own stocks that are extremely expensive even if they have good profits? No, you should not. Risk-reward is the one thing we can control. The risk-reward we take is the one thing we can control. We cannot control the market. We cannot control valuation. We cannot predict the future. So risk-reward analysis is what we focus on at New Constructs. Turns out, it generates some pretty good returns. Over the short term and the long term, as you can see by these indices. So we think the work we do is extremely good, and we're here to help investors. That's what this is about. So yes, in the ratings breakdown for the professional subscribers, you can see return on invested capital. And by the way, we do return on invested capital better than anybody in the world. We also break out return on capital into its key drivers, NOPAT margin and invested capital turns. Free cash flow, we measure that better than anybody in the business. Again, you know, Arista looks great on all these measures, looks great, except that the yield is pretty low for what we'd like to see. We like to see yields above 10% on free cash flow yield. That's typically been a recipe for really great stock price performance. That's one of like my favorite metrics. Favorite metric is market implied growth appreciation period because it's been the most predictive as a single individual category. Free cash flow yield is a big one as well. But where things start to get a little off base here for Arista is the valuation. This is the underlying economic book value of the stock based on the no-growth value of the profits. So we just assume profits stay flat forever. That's the value of the stock if that's the case. You can see the price was in pretty decent range of that until recently. We really sort of disconnected. That's just essentially telling you that it's really expensive. Then here's a summary of our market implied growth appreciation period. Look, if we're assuming a CAGR of revenue growth of 4% over 100 years and seeing also meaningfully improvement in profitability on average over that 100-year timeframe, we can't get to a $90 stock price in our reverse DCF model. That's what that shows. And here's a picture of our reverse DCF model. You can see we've got the ability to do different scenarios here. I've got an optimistic and a neutral. And in both of these, what we're doing is we're jacking up the revenue growth rates, right? And over 8 years or 15 years, that's a high level of revenue growth. And then these are all implied values over that 100-year timeframe, right? So, we're not forcing our valuation into a specific timeframe like, oh, 5 years. And then after that, we just assume whatever. No. Why don't we just keep the timeframe? Why don't we relax that assumption and just let the model go out until it generates a value equal to the current stock price? And then we can look at the effectively the price implied timeframe or the price implied competitive advantage period. Price implied growth appreciation period is what we call it. But to get a sense of what this means in terms of revenue, you know, you're talking about $36 billion in revenue. I think that's around the level of some of the biggest companies in the market. I have a model. Here that we can use to take a look at that. And so if we can, this is the S&P 500. If we rank by total revenue, largest to smallest, here it is. $36 billion would put Arista ranked just outside of the top 100. So maybe you think that's realistic. It's almost $36, $37 billion. Maybe you think that's realistic. I don't know. Return on invested capital, NOPAT, over a similar timeframe. What's the implied NOPAT? That puts them at $13.6 billion. So we could rank based on NOPAT. $13.6 billion puts them in the top 25. That's, I think, the cool thing about the new construct system is that it's going to really give you a very specific understanding of what good company, bad stock means. So that, that's our takeaway on Arista. You notice I don't go into details on like the earnings per share because the earnings per share, to be honest with you, they don't matter, right? When you look at a model like this and then you look at a model like this and you see the implied NOPAT, right, what they're doing in the next quarter or 2 or year or 2, which is as far out as Wall Street's going, is a drop in the bucket compared to what the big picture of expectations are. This is why earnings season needs to be dissected. This is why we do what we do, because it's a game. They're going to have you obsess over a penny here or a penny there, a nickel here or nickel there, when it doesn't really matter in the big scheme of things. Why does Wall Street want to keep you focused on this very myopic set of earnings? Because if you do focus on that, you don't see the big picture. You don't see the big picture in terms of valuation that shows you that, like, you know what, no matter what they do in this next quarter, unless it's like 20x what What the market expects, it doesn't justify the valuation. Wall Street doesn't want you to know that because they want to keep pumping the stock and a lot of other similar stocks. All right, let's take a look back here again at our earnings watch list for today. Let's take a look at Fluor next. Attractive rating, Fluor. All right, I think they may have reported a day or so ago. It's down post-earnings results, beats estimates about $0.23 a share, sees increased price target. Amid Q1 performance exceeding expectations, Citi raises price target. So people are positive on Fluor. We had a strong miss. We missed on this one in terms of that expectation, but we get an attractive rating and it would make sense that somebody would be willing to upgrade this stock. The earnings can continue to come in better than expected. You've got a cheap valuation here. This 0.9 price-to-economic book value means that the stock price is implying Fluor's profits will permanently decline by 10%. So if you believe profits are going to grow for this business, then you're in good shape. Even if you believe they're going to stay flat, you're in good shape in terms of risk-reward. So that's a good situation. Credit rating, not so good. The interest coverage ratio is not a good one. That's a bad sign. Interest coverage is equal to EBIT over interest expense. I think a negative EBIT here looks like a bad thing, even though cash to debt is strong. Interesting. I wonder if our EBIT is showing something. EBITDA to debt. So EBITDA to debt looks a lot better. Our EBITDA to debt adjusted is interesting. So is it our EBITDA that's way different? Our traditional. So our EBITDA is very different from the Fluor EBITDA. Very interesting. And this is why We have the earnings distortion miss, because what we're seeing here is if we go into more detail on Fluor, we're going to see, I'm guessing, a pretty big disconnect between, yeah, accounting earnings and economic earnings. Accounting earnings are jumping up. We saw something in the numbers that caused our core earnings to stay much lower. Notice how this core earnings number is so much more Normal or flat, and doesn't have the volatility. So Fluor, we think this Fluor number is probably a bit of an overstatement. Let's see here. Yeah, gap net income of of 1845 versus NOPAT of 176. Now a big increase in NOPAT. That's looking good. That's why the valuation is still cheap. But we've got some hidden items in here, and if we want to actually look up what those hidden items are. Let's see, is it in the current quarter? Not so much. It doesn't look like all the current quarter and the current K. Yeah, you see this pretax gain that's buried in the footnotes. That's the big number that's jacking up. There's other additional pretax gain that gives us the 2.2 gain on sale of assets. Add all this stuff up and we're getting to that number that we say is hidden, $2.2 billion. And, and unusual gains that you're not seeing on the income statement. So if we go into the income statement, you know, you're not going to see that gain. So the, the net earnings, not in the first quarter so much. Well, it's a big increase here, but in the 10-K, we'll see probably the net earnings significantly increase. 124, net earnings loss equity method. Yeah, there we go. Equity method earning earnings. Yeah. So if you include these unusual items from the investments, the numbers look way better. So that, that's misleading. That's not going to be sustainable. So whether or not Wall Street has, doesn't have that unusual gain in its numbers or not, I'm not sure, but the GAAP number certainly does. We've already seen it come down a little bit in the first quarter. Let's take on some of the bigger cap names here. Let's talk about Marriott. What happened with Marriott? Doing well over the last 5 days, last month, year to date, not so great, down about 8%. They trimmed their forecast, flags hit from government spending, US government demand. I guess they were a big— the government was a pretty big client. They beat estimates on the bottom line, but the revenues lag. So One of the key metrics looks good year over year. Marriott. Yeah, this is kind of a ho-hum. I mean, look, pretty good company, expensive valuation. So we are not surprised to see it down for the year. Good that they had a pretty decent quarter. But clearly, yeah, they're going to potentially be sensitive to a declining economy, which is probably going to be, you know, going to be a result of tariffs. So they're affected by tariffs as well. Less government spending if they're— the government is a big client. We're getting a new K— I'm sorry, a new Q here any day now. We just suspended it because we're expecting that to come in right away. By the way, we're going to see our ratings change a lot. At least 800, I think, upgrades and ratings changes across our system are going to be in the next, you know, as we speak. Every day we're getting in tons of 10-Qs and some 10-Ks. So if you want to be— if you're a client, you want to be logging in, checking your portfolio. If you are a client, you will get an update. You will get an alert if our ratings change. You'll get an alert when a rating gets suspended. So we'll let you know when things— what things are going on. But Marriott, yeah, nothing too exciting or special there. Neutral rating. And again, we're getting a new filing, so who knows what's going to happen. Monster Beverage, good company, bad stock. Same thing we were saying before about Arista. Same idea. Strong quality of earnings, not quite as strong as Arista, but again, valuation really high. Again, this red, this red one is a big red flag. Big red flag. Another way to look at the valuation. I like this number. It's kind of simpler and more intuitive. The current stock price implies that profits will get 280% greater than where they are today. The present value of the future profits is 280% where it is today. So, so that's The present value of the future NOPAT peak that this company has to get to is 280% versus where it is today. That's really high expectations for any company, right? And the idea is with good risk-reward, you want to buy low expectations, sell high expectations. When expectations are already high, it's a crowded trade. Monster's done well all year and Not surprising. Good company, but yeah, expensive stock. Exxon. What happened with Exxon? Beat and cost cuts will offset the sting of tariffs. So pretty good. Pretty good stock. Flat today for the most part. I would imagine the stock's been under a fair amount of pressure given oil prices, but it's held up well compared to the S&P so far this year. You know, Exxon, I think full disclosure, I think own this in one of my retirement accounts. Yeah, the valuation looks okay. The profits of the business have been tough. They kind of got sideways with all the green energy stuff going on, had to sell off a lot of assets and then buy them back at a higher price later because of all that pressure. But this has been one of the kind of great value creators over time. I imagine that economic earnings down here recently, I would expect these guys to come back. They're one of the best in the business. And as you'll see in a lot of the long ideas that we've written up, over the years for energy companies that fossil fuel demand and energy demand is only going to rise for a while. It takes like 25 years before they expect it to really start to decline. It's just, we're just not there on the alternative energies. We need to get there and we are, but until we do, we should take advantage of the cheap energy we have to get there. We shouldn't force ourselves to pay extra for energy that's just not quite ready yet when there's a bunch of cheap stuff around. Our competitors are doing that. Other countries are doing that, right? We don't— there's no reason to impose an additional tax on ourselves. So Exxon, you know, as you guys know, personally, I like it, but I would stay away. I would wait to see some improvement in quality of earnings. You know, just being independent and blunt with you here. Look, the rating's not great. Big acquisition done recently. We did just get the new K. So this is the latest. I'm sorry, the new Q. This is the latest. It was updated. All this was done and updated yesterday. So, you know, the earnings are out. We processed immediately, and we're seeing, you know, kind of a continuation or flattening out in economic earnings. Return on capital down, flattened out. Economic earnings, really, that's a pretty big drop here from 47 cents for the full year and then 17 cents for the quarter. That's a trailing 12 months number. So that's not— that doesn't look so great. So we're probably seeing margins. Flat here, a little bit better, I guess, in the TTM. So that's good. Free cash flow, yeah, big acquisition, so big negative free cash flow. Looks like maybe some more. I think they're buying back some of these assets that they sold off previously. Not great deal, but long term should be good generators. And here you can see the economic book values dipping down below, back below stock price. So it was up above and it was really cheap, but the market was expecting some of this. You can see the stock price is kind of Steady Eddie, up some, but more, much more steady than the stock price, than the economic book value. And that's markets like seeing through. And so here it is, good stock price appreciation, but economic book value's taken a pretty big fall. EVX, Chevron. Isn't this one of Warren Buffett's favorites? Did you guys see the recent article in Wall Street Journal? Warren Buffett talks about how Warren Buffett has read over 100,000 financial statements. Like, amazing. How many of you guys have read 100,000? How many of you have read 100? Guess how many we've read at New Constructs? How many our systems and our experts have meticulously marked up? 500,000 and counting and more. And that doesn't count the ones that the machines have practiced on. If you take into account the ones the machines have practiced on where we've said, hey, here's what the humans have expertly done when going through a filing and building model. All right, machine, see how much of that you can replicate based on the 500,000 examples we have. And we've done that probably, I don't know, another 500, maybe millions of times because we run those reps constantly. And there was a time in our, in our company when we were really advancing our auto parser. We were doing that like, I mean, almost every day across large numbers of filings over and over and over and over and over again, teaching the machine, giving it lots of reps. So our AI, I love that comparison. Warren Buffett's with 100,000. We've read 500,000, if not millions, to teach our AI to put together models like this. Chevron, similar story to Exxon, right? Not great economics. Valuation looks better. They also recently did a big acquisition. So yeah, decent dividend, kind of like Exxon's got a decent dividend as well. We'll take that. Marriott's got an okay dividend. Yeah, so, you know, things got to kind of, you know, fall out a little bit. I don't want to be too much in the business of trying to predict where energy prices are going in the short term. Do I think these energy stocks will be good longer term? Yes. I like valuation a lot. I think this is where you really manage risk the most. And then if you're comfortable with this, then your real question is, will the quality of earnings improve? And if you think it will get back to where it has been in the past, which I think is probably more likely than not, then these could be good stocks, could be great stocks to own. All right, let's knock out a few more of these. So I said we're going to go through a lot of different industries today. We're covering consumer cyclicals, energy, financials, industrials, technology, utilities. This is the beauty of our system. When we've trained it on 500,000, we didn't just say, oh, we want to be one particular sector. No, we've got experts in every sector making sure that the system understands How to build the model in the right way based on those companies' financials. All of our AI is based on every individual, right down to the individual company. It starts with, hey, what, how does this company like to report? And then it goes from there. There are a lot of things across companies that we can, that we can trust, but there's a lot less than you think. And when you, and if anyone has looked at more than a handful of filings, you know that the reporting, the disclosure, Is crazy. Like the variations in disclosures would blow you away. You know, if you're wondering if the SEC is looking at these filings and making sure companies do things in the right way every time, it won't take you long to realize they are not. We see income statements that don't add up, balance sheets that don't balance. We see entire required disclosures just missing. Yes, I've told the SEC. Yes, but they don't have the capacity to do anything about it. They're trying to do other stuff. And who's reading these things anyway? They're like, oh yeah, whatever, Trainer. Yeah, yeah, I'm sure. I validated the balance sheet. Nobody cares. Not a congressman calling me about that. And so, look, there's not a lot of discernment these days. Not a lot of attention to detail. Not a lot of people want to do the work. Fortunately for you, we're doing it for you. Cigna, attractive rating. You know, we found that in a lot of cases, we're seeing some attractive ratings in the financial sector, cheap valuations, right? Maybe this is because we got a recession coming at us. But I think like for companies though, like in the insurance business, whatever's happening, you kind of still need your insurance, whether it's property and casualty or health insurance or commercial liability insurance. You still gotta pay those bills. I know as running a business, I mean, I, I don't really have to think about my insurance. I gotta do it. So these are pretty steady businesses and I expect that they will continue to do well. A lot of these guys are big and, and have a lot of scale. Let's see what's happening here with Cigna. Anything exciting? Not much today. Over the last month looks pretty good. Year to date looks really good. 20 up 20%. So this is one of those stocks that, you know, I have to put in the category of being pretty tariff-proof. We have a special offer out there for folks if you want to know our top 3 tariff-proof stocks. That's a special deal. But Cigna is in that area of stuff we like for those kinds of stocks. So yeah, beat. What happened in the earnings here? Balanced risk-reward scenario, strong earnings with cautious outlook. Interesting. TipRanks sounds like they're taking a page out of our book. Balanced risk-reward scenario, strong earnings with cautious outlook. Not surprised. We've got a lot of copycats out there. I've seen people actually take stuff on Seeking Alpha and copy and paste into their own article, literally. And I went to the Seeking Alpha people and said, this is plagiarism. They're like, what do you mean? Like, it's when somebody copies your stuff. Like, don't you guys have filters for this? Because I know my kids in their school, like, there's like a simple button that teachers have had for a long time. They just push it, it automatically checks for like plagiarism. And I would imagine you would have that on your own platform, Seeking Alpha. Oh, I don't know what you mean. What are you talking about? That's not— is that really plagiarism? Like, they copied verbatim, like entire paragraphs. So we took our stuff off Seeking Alpha for a little while. We only put stuff on there. delayed. So the real stuff is on our site, but kind of a shame. So Cigna, yeah, pretty good earnings, you know, is— and that's what we suggested. You know, we had a good strong earnings distortion score here for a beat, good quality of earnings, cheap valuation. What can I say? I think this has got to be one of the ones you wish you could— this would be one I would suggest considering for addition to your portfolio. On the other hand, AMD. Yeah, I knew this one's an expensive one. 10.2 price-to-economic book value ratio, 1,000% better NOPAT is already priced in. 1,000% better NOPAT already priced in. And if you assume it grows at consensus estimates for 100 years, it's going to take more than— you're never going to get to the current stock price in the model. This is what I mean by estimates, these near-term, short-term estimates meaning nothing related to the overall valuation of the company. They are dropping the buck in terms of what the expectations for future cash flows really are. Again, why does Wall Street want you to focus on the short term? Because then they can get you obsessed about a penny here, a penny there, then get you to dial into CNBC and focus so much on this day-to-day noise that you don't see the big picture. And New Constructs, you type in a ticker and we give you the big picture immediately because we care and we care about the integrity of the capital markets. That's our mission. Yeah, this would be one I would definitely recommend avoiding unattractive rating. Economics of the business don't look that good, and the valuation looks really expensive. You can see a bad divergence here between economic earnings, reported earnings. Earnings distortion looks better here. Core earnings above GAAP earnings. Surprising. So that's why we didn't say much. But what matters more, and to our rating and to me in the big picture, is economic earnings. I created core earnings so that people could go in and test our data quality directly against other benchmarks out there. It created an apples-to-apples metric. It's a great metric. It has alpha, as I showed you in these indices from Bloomberg. Great alpha. There's even more alpha when you take into account the rest of the financial statements and the digging in them and the corrections we make there. And by the way, we show you all the corrections we make. So for example, you know, this is all the work we're doing to convert GAAP net income into net operating profit after tax. Here's all the work we're doing to convert total assets to invested capital. Here's all the work we're doing to capture the valuation adjustments we're making on, on our price-to-economic book value and reverse DCF. So Advanced Micro Devices, expensive, and I don't really care what the earnings were. This is something that I think you want to be avoiding if you care about risk-reward. This is a bad— that's a bad stock. So the utilities are interesting to me because they've been expensive for a while. I feel like they got crowded a while ago when there was really sort of a run on dividend stocks and they've stayed expensive. And we've even looked at trying to lower the cost of capital for these firms. We find our cost of capital actually ends up being really mostly the cost of debt is what we care about because these guys are really highly indebted. Like, we go to credit ratings, you're going to see cash-to-debt. The debt levels are really high for these businesses typically because they can borrow a lot. Borrowing is cheaper than equity. They can borrow a lot because the The lenders know that there is a— the fix is kind of in and that if they're really in bad shape, well, then they can raise rates. So that means lower downside, but also lower upside. And you're not ever really going to see really great returns on capital from utility companies and you're not expected to, right? If they're super profitable, then they're charging too much of their ratepayers. So you got to kind of come back. But yeah, these stocks have been expensive for a while. I'm not a big fan. I think the utility sector in general, which we could take a look at, We go to ratings here and we go to sectors. You can see utilities is down here at the bottom. By the way, it changes a lot. Those ratings change, like, especially during earnings season. We're seeing that flip around as we get a ton of new data in on thousands of companies. But yeah, you can see in general, poor economics, expensive valuation. Utilities have not looked that attractive to us for a while. Let's go back to our Earnings Watch portfolio. Duke, not so great. Last month, year, year to date, done pretty well, done pretty well. Utilities have been a safe haven. I don't know how long that can last given how expensive the valuations are. Don't know how long that can last. I would recommend looking for stocks that have good, better, better risk-reward. American Electric Power Company, another utility. Another good dividend yield. Same stock or same sector, same story, different stock. I think almost exactly sort of similar looking rating as what we saw for Duke Energy. Very similar. Yeah. Economic earnings not looking so great. Reported EPS, economic earnings dropping. We're seeing return on invested capital really pretty flat. Cost of capital going up. on the margin because the cost of debt is higher. And so you're seeing sort of lower net profits on that front. And that's just something they can't avoid. You know, when you've got tons of debt like these guys, it's going to be an issue. We'll see that here. Yeah, $42 billion in debt, really a lot of debt. Deferred tax liability, small. Excess cash is small, but $42 billion in debt on a market cap of $57 billion. That's a big number. So just super levered up companies, both for Duke and utilities in general. They're going to have decent cash flow. It's going to be steady, but just not necessarily the kind of upside in a business that doesn't have a rate cap. That's the problem with utilities is they ever get too profitable. Well, then rates either got to come down or they got to do something because they're not supposed to be bilking. They're not allowed to bilk the citizens and the ratepayers. In the way that unregulated companies are allowed to bill their clients. All right, we're going to take a couple requests here. First one that came in, HBI, Hanesbrands, looking for a strong beat. Yeah, you know, I think Hanesbrands— what's been happening? The action here been recently with Hanesbrands, really tough here. I think there's some bad news that came out around this time. We're expected earnings pretty soon here. It looks like we should get a beat. So, and it's looking really cheap and the stock price implying a permanent 60% decline in profits. So kind of a tough business, like the apparel business is, is pretty commoditized. But, you know, we are seeing economic earnings greater than accounting earnings. So clearly the, the numbers we're getting at here are way better than what we're seeing on the income statement. That's why we've got a strong beat earnings distortion. I think we're going to see core earnings way better than accounting earnings. So I'm guessing there's a lot of unusual expenses baked into the accounting earnings that are depressing the stock. Credit rating, not so good. A fair amount of debt for these guys, not a lot of cash, not a lot of cash flow. So this is one that is kind of interesting, right? You know, look, the rating looks great, a lot of positives on this. But if these guys' business is really commoditized and it's not going anywhere, I don't know. On the other hand, tariffs could be great. They don't have to compete against Firms around the world that are basically using slave labor to build their apparel, and that's what we've been consuming for a long time. Is is I think a lot of products built under working conditions that we would not allow in the United States, and so we send our dollars over there perpetuating those unfortunate situations while our own people are you know not getting a job. So yeah, a lot to like on this stock. Very interesting. EQNR, Equinor. I've been asked about this a lot in the past. This is an insurance company. Yeah. So this is an ADR. We just got a new, a new 6-K. Yeah, this one looks attractive all the way across the board. Tax rate under review. So we're seeing some interesting issues with its tax rate. So we're not 100% sure about what's going on with this one. But yeah, I mean, high return on capital. Price-to-economic book value of 0.2. I think that's probably because they're not paying any taxes is what I would guess. That looks a little bit low. You know, anytime honestly I see something look this cheap, it makes me think, eh. But I've gotten questions about this one a lot because it's come up pretty strongly in the ratings. Economic earnings above accounting earnings, which is always impressive. 26% return on capital. Yeah, Stephen, that's pretty interesting. Very interesting. Thanks for suggesting that one. IBKR, Interactive Brokers. Again, economic earnings above accounting earnings. We're talking about some good ones, some good ones here. Yeah, that's right, Equinor. I remember looking this up for, for a friend. We talked about this quite a bit. Yeah, Norwegian Oil and Gas, that's a good place to be, good place to be on Equinor. Interactive Brokers, yeah, it looks like a great stock. We've, we've, we've been very positive on Interactive Brokers for a while, and I believe it's done really well by clients. Still positive for the year. Over the past year, up 50%. I think we've been positive about this since around like right here. Some of you may know what I mean. Purchasers of some of our special products, some of our special bundles. IBK has been a real winner for our clients on that front. Exponent. Yeah, interesting. High return on capital. Doesn't look like things are trending in the right direction though. Return on capital has been good, or profit's been good, but it's not— economic earnings on the decline, return on capital's on its way down, even though it's been really high. And we got a really expensive valuation. Really expensive valuation. So, all right, well, thanks very much, everybody. We have 45 minutes. I was able to take a bunch of suggestions. We're going to be doing this tomorrow, another earnings watch tomorrow at 11 AM Eastern. And then on Friday, we'll be going at 12:00 PM Eastern. Friday's Earnings Watch will be part of our monthly Intelligent Capital Allocation webinar where we take— we always take questions. I always take suggestions. But we usually cover sort of a little bit more about what's going on with the business and research and things like that with respect to new constructs and generally in the markets, what interesting research has been posted to our society. But we'll cover some stocks on Friday as well. But I hope you enjoyed it today. Please leave me some comments in the, in the survey at the end, and I look forward to seeing you tomorrow.