Watch Our Earnings Recap on NVIDIA, Agilent, HP, AutoZone, Salesforce, and More

Glad for you to be with us today. Thanks for joining. We're going to jump into the presentation right now. Let me get to my other screen, and we will start with a couple of slides about what's going on today. We're going to be covering NVIDIA, Agilent, HPQ, Didi Global, Salesforce and AutoZone. A lot of interesting stuff happening here, and I think these— this group of stocks is like a perfect reflection of what's going on in the market. There's a lot of churn. We're seeing a lot of great headlines, but there's a lot of churn. Let me remind you that we are not advisors. We're not providing investment advice. That is not what we do. We are publishers of information. We help you make more informed decisions. We do not make decisions or recommendations. Let me know in the chat. I want to know mainly Give me your tickers. Already got one. I love it. Somebody signed in right away. The first thing he did was say, okay, let me know about this one stock, attractive or not. All right, that's a good question. You're heading down the right path if you care about our ratings, because our ratings matter. Let me know also if this is your first time with us. We'd like to have special prizes for those whose first time is with us. And a quick background before we jump in. I want you to know that that. Before I was part of New Constructs, I was on Wall Street. I saw how the sausage was made. I was there before the tech bubble, back in the mid-'90s, during the tech bubble, and after. And what I saw changed me forever, and it made me want to start New Constructs. What I saw was the people that were supposed to be doing the work to understand companies and valuations and providing information to the rest of the world, the people we called equity analysts became compromised. They were no longer focused on investors. They were fully and totally captured, beholden to the investment bankers. Why? Because they made a ton of money. And I saw it happen right in front of my eyes. Credit Suisse effectively cleared out the older, more mature people, brought in a bunch of really young kids and said, hey, you know, we're going to cover these tech stocks. Guess what? We make billions if people buy it, billions. That is what people did. The aha moment for me, the epiphany for me was, if there is not a firm that is going to go through and do that work that used to be done by equity research analysts, who is going to do it? By the way, we are not going to be able to get millions of people to go through and read filings anymore. We are going to need a technology to do that. By the way, Also, the filings have gotten so complicated that very few humans even know how to do this or want to do it. So we needed a technology to get the truth. We needed a technology to scale expertise about how to read filings to get to the truth, especially to get to the truth at scale. So I decided to build something better to give investors like you clear, Honest answers. So big headlines, Agilent, NVIDIA looking good, nice big beat there. CRM, a little more complex, looked pretty good on the top line, but underneath they were lurking some sort of issues around really what was the net real subscription growth. It was decelerating. And with stocks like CRM, I'll show you, deceleration is not allowed. And then we've got AutoZone, HPQ, both missed, but they had different, different stories there in terms of what their performance was. And then Diddy, Diddy, Diddy Global, one of the most joke stocks of all time. We were early on this. We told people before the IPO, watch out, and we hope you didn't fall into that trap. This is a really classic, classic trap with an IPO, and I'll go into more detail on that later. So let's jump in. I'm going to be demonstrating our Stock Tracker 50, and I'm going to quickly show you how easy it is to create a portfolio here. You just come in and say, all right, I'm going to copy these tickers. I'm going to go in here, I'm going to paste them in. Bam! Now I've got this portfolio. Thanks for the answers to my questions in the chat. You know what, Walt, you picked a stock that's on our list, so you're going to be in good shape. There's the answer for CRM. All right, let's talk about these guys in pairs like I did before. We said Nvidia and Agilent both had beats, and we can take a look at the overall performance here. I created a portfolio in Google. So Agilent and Nvidia, both these guys did great. Let's take a quick look here at Nvidia. So, you know, we've done quite a bit of work on Nvidia. Very interesting situation with this company, right? This is something that I think a lot of people don't quite understand. This is a nuance that's been lost on the market in a world where money is free and people can invest effectively without risk. It feels like, right? There's even a Trump put. What do they call it? The Trump chicken call? Because he's actually going to be chicken and back off a lot of stuff, right? We've seen it happen a few times. Oh, we're going to do these tariffs. Oh, this is bad for the markets. Maybe we shouldn't do that. So, you know, something tells me that's not going to stick. I think that that's maybe— Trump is good at misdirection. So who knows? Regardless, we are looking at stocks at heights that are dangerous. And what you see with Nvidia here is really, really simple. This is called good company, bad stock. Got green on the fundamentals, great quality of earnings, super high quality earnings. Everyone's heard this, profits are awesome, right? But Mr. Buffett likes to say, and Mr. Munger said as well, there's a difference between a good company and a good stock. And this applies to anything in life, right? There's a difference between a good company and a good deal. You might love a particular car, but is it worth paying that much? Everybody wants a Lamborghini, but do you want to pay that much for it? And the same is true for stock, right? The way to get a good rating in our system is to have good quality of earnings and a cheap valuation. That's great risk-reward. In a world where we can't predict the future, the best thing you can do is risk-reward. So what we're showing you here is that all the good news is priced in, folks. All the good news is priced in. Now, is that going to mean that the stock's going to Go down right away? No, this is a meme stock. You get people piling into it, just like they piled into GameStop. They got smart and said, oh, instead of investing in a complete junk stock, let's invest in a company with good fundamentals. Just keep driving it up. I'm going to show you what I mean in terms of valuation in just a minute. If you've been following us for a while, you also know that we've done some really interesting work showing just how expensive this stock is, what's required to justify $139 stock price. It would shock you. It's absolutely shocking when you do the math. Sorry, I keep going to the wrong page. When you do the math behind what it takes to justify this stock price, it will shock you. It will shock you. We've done a special— call it tutorial documentary on just that. If you guys haven't seen it, let me know or email support. We'll make sure and get you a copy. But the takeaway is current stock price implies their revenue is going to be greater than the GDP of Japan, assuming GDP— Japan's GDP grows at 4% compounded annually for another decade. Yeah. So yeah, I'm telling you, good news is priced in. Don't be surprised, right? Because this has been a super popular stock for a while. All right, let's talk about Agilent. So how do they do? Agilent doing pretty well. They had a beat as well, a nice, nice performance in that company, not up as much, not as high quality. You got an unattractive rating because the business isn't as strong, valuation is still expensive. This plays right into where our theme is here, and that is to say, good company or bad stock is better than bad company, bad stock. This is what you have here in unattractive. Even with a beat, you're seeing a much less sanguine performance, a much less good performance. All right, speaking of not as good a performance, let's talk about HPQ. So looking at HPQ down 8%, what does our rating system say about it? Quality of earnings, okay. Valuation, pretty cheap, right? This is a dying business. And so when they miss, You're going to see a pretty big, pretty big hit. And I think this stock is just recently gone to attractive. I don't believe it's been that attractive for that long. It does have a suspended rating. And if we wanted to look at the suspend— the reasons for a suspended rating, we would just simply go to our education section and We would go to suspended ratings and analyst notes, and this will explain to you all the reasons why a stock's rating might be suspended. As a Stock Tracker 50 member— and let me show you how to find out more about being a Stock Tracker 50 member. This is for individual investors, and we've got a special deal right now, an annual deal. If you buy, buy now, you get a month free. I will put this into the chat. Stock Tracker 50, it's like an intro. It's a starter package, right? It's for people who don't necessarily have— are not professionals and don't need all the data behind everything. And you want to get in at a super cheap price. I mean, we're talking about less than $49 a month when you buy the annual deal. You know, it's closer to $45 a month, and you're getting access to ratings, one of the best rating systems in the history of the universe, certainly currently the best stock rating system in the market now for a really super inexpensive price. So HPQ missed, got crushed. AutoZone, higher quality earnings, already pretty expensive, right? Didn't get crushed as much. Why? Higher quality earnings, higher quality business. That's why we're seeing HPQ down, both missed, But AutoZone, not down much at all. HPQ down a lot. Why? It's just a higher quality business. Can afford that. And it's been a super high quality business for a long time. This is one of the stocks that has been very attractive for us for a, a long time. So we've covered HP, Salesforce, AutoZone, Didi, Agilent, and Nvidia. We got one more here before we move on. Diddy Global. All right, bad company, bad stock. Suspended. Why this one? I think, yeah, I think it's because it's just— I think it's got some stuff going on with their— its reporting. Maybe it's the disclosure has problems. And that is something with a professional membership, we give you all those details, you know, for just $45 a month, which is the global monthly or annual monthly rate. We're giving you the signal you need to understand what's good and what's bad. For Diddy, we warned people about the stock before the IPO. If we go back and look at Diddy, you can see, yeah, it came out really high and has since gone way down. It's an I told you so moment for New Constructs. Just so you know, this was one we warned against and it's down almost 70% since its IPO. And look, this is not a good company, not a good stock. It's a bad business, as is all the rideshare businesses, in my opinion. Like, they just got no margin. There's no real margin. It's a commodity business, right? Like, what happens, you know, to Uber if, like, Tesla works? And what happens to Tesla if Uber works? Taxi businesses, buses— these things are commodities, utilities. They're not profit centers. because they provide a commodity service. And when somebody figures out a way to take the cost out of that service, everyone does it. There's no margin. There's no margin in these businesses. So Diddy, what's the news on Diddy? They give us any news for what happened? Were they beat or not? Kind of doesn't matter. It's a bad company, bad stock. We highly recommend you avoid this one at all costs. So let's talk a little bit, and I'm going to take your— I'm going to come back and take your requests here in just a second, but I want to talk a little bit about Why our earnings matter in new constructs. Why are these earnings so good? Why do you care? Well, one of the main reasons is because they work. And demonstrating that they work is our number 1 ranking on SumZero for multiple categories for 47 straight months. And again, on SumZero, we're competing against professionals, not the sell-side guys that are just trying to sell you stock. By the way, we would beat them even worse, but— I want you to know that the bar is higher when we're talking about SumZero. We've also been vetted and validated by the most prestigious institutions in the world. MIT Sloan School of Management, the Harvard Business School, Ernst Young. These are all places whose professors or senior people have published papers proving the superiority of our research. Proving it, proving it. That's what these folks do. And then if that's not enough, how about performance of actively traded indices or indexes based on our research? Here's what I'm talking about. Bloomberg's created an index called the Very Attractive Stocks Index. They got a kind of funny name for it. We call it Very Attractive Stocks Index. First quarter of this year beat the market by 9%. Going back over 5 years, beat by 80%. Not bad. Are very attractive rated stocks. This is all this index holds are very attractive rated stocks crushing the market. Superior fundamental data, which is which is really what these guys talk about on this page. So really about superior fundamental data here and and superior ratings and superior analytics. And you can see that that translates into superior performance. There's also the Bloomberg New Constructs 500 Total Return Index. This is basically just a core earnings-weighted S&P 500. Think about it like an enhanced S&P 500. And this enhancement can work for any portfolio. You just weight the stocks based on core earnings as opposed to market cap or equal weight. Right? Makes sense. If you really want to understand or have outperformance, and find alpha, you want to know the companies that are more profitable than the market thinks. And that's what this core earnings weighted S&P 500 index does. It weights those companies that are more profitable, more than the companies that are less profitable. Outperformed by 1% in the first quarter, outperformed by 33% over the last 5 years. There's another index, Core Earnings Leaders Index. This is an index strategy that focuses on just holding The companies with the strongest core earnings or most understated earnings. It's an easy way to think about it. The understated earnings leaders, right? Not a great number, not a great title. That's why they call it the core earnings leaders, right? These are the companies with the most robust fundamentals. Outperformed by 5% in the first quarter, outperformed by 43% over the last 5 years. Now, it's important. These indexes are managed by Bloomberg, But they're not available to the public to purchase. Can't do it. Not yet anyway. However, they're all based on our research, which you can get from us. And why it's better than everything else out there? Well, 96% of all stocks covered by Wall Street are rated as a buy or hold. Why? Because they're in the business of selling stock. That's how they get paid. More recently, we looked at the number of buy ratings. 57% of all stocks get a buy rating. What? How many companies? How many firms on on Wall Street have a buy rating on Nvidia? I think all of them, despite the fact that it's super expensive. They want you to keep buying that stuff. They want the market to keep going up. Rah rah rah! Because they make money in good markets. They care about good markets, robust markets, overvalued markets. That's where they make their big bucks. Trust me, I've been there and I've seen it. When you dig into the real financials, though. And understand what's going on, you see the real risk. You see risks in the gap between valuations and current cash flow. This is a gap that Wall Street does not want you to see, because if you did, you'd be scared. And Wall Street's approach is to say, we're going to give you earnings estimates. We just talked about earnings estimates. And if you got the impression that I don't care that much about what the actual number was, whether it's the top-line revenue or the bottom-line earnings, it's because I don't. Because a penny here, a penny there, a nickel here, a nickel there doesn't matter. It doesn't really matter in the big scheme of things. Let me show you why. So here's a report on the estimates that were provided for free in the public going out about 6 years for 3 stocks. Those are the analyst estimates. This is the visibility you get about what the company's going to do. Now, what I'm going to show you is what you deserve to see about what the company's got to do, because the gap between what Wall Street's showing you and what the company really has to do is going to stagger you. Here's what I mean. So this in red is when we model out the free cash flow per share over time required to justify the stock price. That's when you do the real work. You model out the free cash flow Over the life of the stock, over the life of the company. Right now, we we don't pick a life a lifetime for the company. We model out cash flow growth until the model produces a value equal to the current stock price. Makes sense, right? We're reverse engineering what the cash flows have to be to justify the price. The real cash flows, those cash flows, those earnings numbers that we measure better than anyone else. That's what we're look. That's what we're modeling out. And when we do that. You see that the earnings per shares compared to the required free cash flow per share are a drop in the bucket. Same is true for Nvidia. Both of these stocks terribly overvalued. So I hope I made my point clear. EPS estimates are a way to manipulate you. They're a way to keep your eye off the ball, and they are not nearly enough to make informed investment decisions. Definitely not. Not in this environment. So what are we doing at New Constructs? What is our secret edge? Well, if you've known and been part of our community for a while, you know that our edge is the robo analyst technology. This is the technology we've been designing and working on for over 20 years. Some of the most sophisticated investors in the world have been our clients for that time, for most of that time as well. And our job is not here to bamboozle you with a bunch of fancy mumbo-jumbo and complicated financial language. It is to make things simple for you. Because if you're not reading the 200-page filings every quarter for every company that you want to look at, you don't know what's going on. And nobody has time to do that anymore. So we do that work for you. And we boil it down to very simply, green means good, red means bad. We have a 5-point rating system, as you saw. All 5 elements of the rating system play a role. Now, if you wonder how good this rating system is, it's the only one in the world with a US patent. It's the only one in the world that's got papers written by it, written on it. It's the only one in the world that has 3 indices from Bloomberg on it. If you know something comparable, please let me know. Put it in the chat. I'll give you a free report on the company of your choice. It's important to understand the comprehensive nature of what we're doing entails countless pages of data documentation. And if you're familiar with financial statements, you know you've got balance sheets, income statements, cash flow statements, more importantly, footnotes. You can see on this page, a balance sheet fits on just one page. An income statement does too. Cash flow statement does too. Maybe it needs 2 pages. Maybe in the worst crazy scenario, it's like 3 or 4. So let's say it's 4 pages for 3 statements. You also got a statement of shareholders' equity, throw that one in there too. Let's say you got 16 pages, right up to 20 pages for the statements, for the most ridiculous, like, crazy thing. By the way, we see ridiculous stuff in the filings all the time. And if they're averaging 200 pages, that's 180 pages footnotes. Why? Because companies want to be able to obfuscate performance. If you don't really know what's going on, you have to listen to them or listen to their Wall Street analysts. And they're going to sing you a tune that's going to get you to open your wallet and buy their stock. That's why these, these, you know, took me a while to even do earnings watches because I was like, no, it's a waste of time. Earnings calls are commercials to sell stock, not to inform you. If they were going to inform you, they would talk about real free cash flow. They talk about economic earnings. They don't. They make up metrics like adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EBIT and Pro forma earnings. They make up numbers to make the business look better. It's a crime. It's a travesty. But what we're doing is the real work, and we can show it to people. That's why the most prestigious institutions in the world publish papers, and that's why our alpha is real. That's why big firms like Bloomberg are willing to work with us, because again, we can show you where we're getting the footnotes information. We don't mess around. So I hope that helps you understand why what New Constructs does is special. And now I will get to a couple of requests. Go to the ratings page. We'll type in CRM. Oh, wait, we already got CRM. Qualcomm. Somebody asked me attractive or not. Get right to the point. All right. Qualcomm, good company, bad stock. We're seeing this a lot. Great fundamentals, expensive valuation. Great fundamentals, expensive valuation. Not really much to say besides that. That's the beautiful thing. Neutral rating. What does really neutral rating mean? It's like, right? You shouldn't invest in stocks. You should invest in stocks that have a very attractive rating. That's what should be on your shortlist. That's where you should be thinking about allocating your money. Because by the way, very attractive stocks outperform. Here it is on the Bloomberg website versus the S&P 500. How's the very attractive stocks doing index year to date? Up more than the market for a year, up more than the market 5 years, up way more than the market. You want to think about stocks that get a very attractive overall rating. When it's neutral, good company, bad stock. Classic Buffett and Munger have talked about this forever. Right? There are times when a stock's valuation can get so far ahead of it that you have to hold it for a long, long, long time before the earnings catch up. And we live in a world where, look, everybody's looking to borrow and spend. And that's what happens when stock prices get really, really high. You're borrowing from the future. You're already— you're discounting more and more earnings. So it's going to take a long time for that stuff to have any real fundamental reason to go up, which means in a market like today, when things could blow up at any point in time, You hold stock like stocks like this, you'll get blown up. Doesn't matter that the stocks have good fundamentals because the valuations are expensive. Now, some are worse than others. Showing you some that are worse than others, they'll go down more. But that's why we give you this detail, so you can know really what kind of risk you're taking. You deserve to know what kind of risk you're taking because no one else is willing to give it to you. How about Dell? All right, similar profile here. Similar profile here. Dell Technologies, good value, good, good, good fundamentals, expensive stock. Good fundamentals, expensive stock. All right, any other questions before we finish up here? Okay, well, one more time, I'm going to put this link in here for our Stock Tracker 50 membership, which gives you immediately the truth about profitability, valuation, what makes a company good, what makes a company bad. You can also get access to ETF ratings, mutual fund ratings. You can add these to the portfolio. When you do have a portfolio, you get alerts on everything you keep— get in it. So we will send you an email first thing the next day if there's a new filing, there's a rating change, if a stock gets suspended. All that stuff, you were kept in the know right away, and you can manage your email alerts here. You can say, okay, I want my portfolio alerts, I want them daily or weekly. Do I want them to go to my email address or somebody else's email address? Manage all that for you. And the other thing you get access to is the education section of our site. We put all this behind a firewall. A lot of this used to be free. I believe in informing the world. But I can't have that large language model stealing. So we put it all behind the firewall and this is gonna give you the best education in the business. Why do I know? Because, well, I've done guest lectures at Harvard Business School, Columbia Business School, Chicago Booth School, Vanderbilt, and maybe some others. And they bring me in because nobody knows this stuff better than we do. You know, look, I can tell you, we get our former analysts have gone to these schools and they can basically teach the class on financial statements analysis. And so, and I've also had clients who've told me that they've gotten big jobs, institutional jobs, and they learned pretty much everything they know about finance from us. So this is great stuff. It explains what everything, you know, how everything works. We're very transparent about how all of our stock ratings work, all of our credit ratings work, mutual fund ratings, all that. We'll show you the accounting loopholes. Folks, we want you to know how much work we're doing for you. I hope you all recognize it. Other firms don't do this. They don't show you how everything's done. It's a black box. We're an open book because we're proud of what we do. Okay, thanks for being with us today. I hope you guys enjoyed this earnings watch. I appreciate the suggestions on and the requests. I thought you guys had some good ones. Qualcomm and Dell. Have a great rest of your day, and I look forward to seeing you next time. Don't forget tomorrow we've got another one of these. And we're going to be doing a big focus on dividend stocks. We're going to go through all the ways dividend stocks are misleading. There's a lot of good dividend stocks out there. There's a lot of really bad ones. And we're going to be talking about that every Friday at 12 Eastern for the next 3 weeks. So tune in for that. You should be getting an email later tonight and then tomorrow, but we're doing a deep dive on what's really safe in the stock market today. Thank you.