Watch our Special Earnings Recap on BYD Vs. Tesla

Welcome everybody. Thanks for being with us today. We have a special earnings watch. Look, I saw the headlines coming in yesterday from BYD and, and then other headlines around Tesla over the last few weeks, and I thought now was a good time to maybe come back and touch on What we think about Tesla and what it means for the competitive landscape to see BYD taking so much market share. I'm gonna go, I'm gonna go a little, be a little different today. I'm gonna go through a few slides and make this a little more structured than I have in the past for these earnings watches. As always, if you've got tickers you want me to take a look at, if we have time in the end, I will be happy to try and do that. And I love your questions. Let's make this interactive. I, we're an open book here at New Constructs. We're not afraid of questions. We like questions. So if you disagree or you think I'm off on something, by all means, let's talk about it. Let's talk about it. Because look, at the end of the day, I don't, I care a lot less about being right than, than I do about getting to the truth. I think we all win if we get to the right answer. And if you can help me get there faster, I am all for it. So. Let's go, let's go through a few slides here to summarize my thoughts, make it a little easier, I think, on everybody. One of the things I always got to do is like disclosure and disclaimers. We're not giving any advice. That's a big part of the New Constructs message. We are not registered investment advisors and we do not pretend to be. But let's take a look at the latest headlines, right? Tesla rival BYD reported huge 4th quarter full-year earnings early Monday. Stock rose to record highs. It's doing really well. Meanwhile, Tesla shares are headed in the opposite direction. And I think the big question here is this last point. For a long time, for many years, Tesla has been treated— the market value— as if its leadership position in the EV market would never be touched, a perpetual first mover advantage. And we've really got to take some— take a minute to question that. What we've seen with market share losses in China related to BYD, what we see with BYD's advancements in battery technology and full self-driving, I think it's hard to make a straight-faced argument that Tesla's doing very well in China. They're losing market share in a big way. They're also losing market share in Europe. And so what, what are the themes that I'm seeing? Here, in terms of big picture, I think two big themes continue, and I'm going to sort of summarize. Number one, looking losing market share, and two, you still got the super bulls. Every time there's bad news that comes out, they say they're just more bullish. Whether it's Kathy Wood or Dan Ives, they are permabulls. And look, and we'll get into a little bit as to why that is the case. But when people sort of stake out territory for themselves in a certain position. Like being a bull for Tesla, it's hard to give that up because once one card in the house of cards sort of comes down, the whole house comes down. And I think that's the issue with Tesla. If you're really honest about what's going on, there's no question the valuation is, is a ticking time bomb. So let's dig in that a little bit more. Let's really talk about losing market share. And I think it's important to talk about losing market share because the valuation of Tesla, as we all know, Is greater than the valuation of all other car companies combined, right? So they're expected to dominate the world. But what we're seeing is that Tesla is seeing a dismal run in Europe, like a 40% drop. We're no longer talking about a deceleration in growth because growth was great for a while. First mover advantage, growth is great. We are seeing sales decline. Tesla sales in Europe have fallen in 10 of the last 12 months with a 40% drop in February compared to the same month last year. This is not deceleration. This is decline. This is market share decline. This is going negative, not just a deceleration. The company's sales declined 43% in the first 2 months of this year. This is from Bloomberg, right? This is actually an article from Bloomberg here, and I got a link to it there. I'll share these slides out in the follow-up replay so you can get to that link. It's not me. Tesla sales declined 43% in the first 2 months of this year. Despite a 31% rise in industry-wide EV registrations, Tesla's going in the wrong direction. If the whole industry was declining even faster, when you would say, yeah, Tesla's taking market share, Tesla's losing market share. And I would, and I would say at a pretty rapid rate here. And it's not just BYD. BYD is a great headline because BYD is kind of, it's winning on multiple levels, not just sales. But in self-driving technology and batteries. And then lastly here, Tesla. Tesla's counting on its redesigned Model Y to boost sales, which were impacted by production pauses at factories around the world earlier this year. These pauses are, I think, also a reflection in some of the flaws in Tesla's business model, whether it's the type of labor they use, whether it's the type of deals they have in certain countries where they build things, or maybe it's their production processes, which have long been potentially questioned as Too fast and too reckless, whether it's recalls. What I'm trying to say here is that I think the bloom is coming off the rose, folks. Let's just be honest, right? These numbers are sort of hard to argue with, especially when you put them in the context of the valuation of the stock. So another consistent theme: Tesla's got all these other revenue sources. Oh, it's not a car company. It's all this other kind of companies, right? So solar panels, not exactly great business. And guess who produces the heck out of solar panels super cheap? China. Competitive disadvantage there and not a great business. The technology is not there yet. Technology is not really there on the solar panels. It's getting there. But are they going to dominate that business? I mean, so far it's a super fraction of the— it's a fraction of the overall revenue. Optimus robots. Raise your hand if you believe in Optimus robots. Put something in the chat here to let me, to give me an indication as to why we should believe in Optimus robots or Q&A. You know, I think the, the last AI Day there was in Austin, there were a couple things that came out of that where I think that I would, I would call disturbing. Number one, the Optimus robots. No, no, no. Number one is that All the cars that drove, you know, without a human in them, that was a predesigned track. That was a Hollywood set. You know, it's almost like, you know, it's like you preprogrammed it to drive on a road or a fake road or a set that was predetermined. So let's hope they can do that. Nothing really showing that the cars could autonomously operate in what is a random, often random environment. Which is what you're dealing with when you are on the road. It's not the other robots that are the issue. It's the other humans. If, if, if machines were driving all the cars, I would feel much safer. But they're not. You've got a lot of humans out there, and that's, that's the problem. And then on the Optimus robots— sorry, I got a little bit off track. We're doing number 2 and 3 at the same time. It was revealed afterward that the Optimus robots were actually controlled, controlled by remote control humans. They're not remote. They were controlled by humans by remote control. So it wasn't a real robot experience. So yeah, I don't, I'm not buying it, right? Going to Mars. Have you guys looked at Mars recently? Do you really want to live on Mars? I'm sure there are some people that want to live on Mars. How many people are going to want to live on Mars? Be like living in a cave. I mean, it might be cool for a little while, but I don't think that that's a long-term. I mean, for sure, if like the world is blowing up, it's a better alternative. But unless the world is blowing up, in which case, what's the value of anything, right? I don't think Mars is really a viable option for revenue and profits. Battery business. You know, when, when BYD revealed this 15-minute charge for 400 miles or 5-minute charge for 400 miles, I mean, that's kind of a big deal. As far as I've heard, none of the battery technologies for Tesla just aren't doing that well. And they're actually buying as many batteries from other people as they're making on their own. to make to produce their cars. So not a good thing. Starlink, xAI, SpaceX— these are different businesses, folks. These, these will not affect the profits of Tesla. Neuralink won't affect the profits of Tesla. These are other projects. These are distractions. These are negative forces on Tesla because they're taking away from, you know, the CEO. Insurance business— yeah, that was one they were talking about getting into, and that just kind of has, you know, just kind of gone away. So consistent themes. Yeah, the car business is not doing well, but you know they've got other businesses, and that's what's going to save them. That's been the it's been the dialogue for a long time. I don't you know I just don't know if it's ever going to happen. And then look look the reason we're seeing Cathie Wood super high stock prices, the reason we're seeing Dan Ives and Gene Munster and these people talk about it as positively as they do is because. Wall Street's all about buy ratings, my friends. Wall Street's about selling stock. Wall Street's about being that bank that helps Tesla sell debt, sell equity to continue to fund the money-losing operations. That's another thing. Tesla's not making as much money as you think. That's how Wall Street makes their money. They don't make money on research. They don't make money on buy ratings. In fact, I saw a study last night. I didn't have time to pull it in today, but it said that Sell ratings are the best place among the best places to look for good long ideas amongst Wall Street. One of my team members actually asked me the other day, like, "Yeah, David, we talked about how bad the buy ratings are. What about the sell ratings?" Well, they're good if you look at them as buy ratings, and the reason you know they're not they're not good in general is because Wall Street rarely capitulates and puts a sell on anything until it's already too late. The last thing they want to do is alienate or hurt the relationship with the company. What do you— how much business do you think Elon Musk gives people that have a sell rating on his company? What do you think Elon Musk does to people on Twitter who are negative? You think their tweets get suppressed or elevated? What has he done to people in the legal system who've been on the other side of him? He's gone out and tried to destroy their careers. It's documented. So yeah, buy ratings are a thing. Buy ratings are a thing to get business from people like Elon Musk and other CEOs. You know, and it's not just big Wall Street firms. It's the other firms out there, the Morningstars of the world, right? They've got very different ratings from us, right? And we had someone in our online community, free to join. I highly recommend you take a look at it at some point. Free to join our online community. Question me, oh my gosh, David, why are your ratings so different? From Schwab or Guru Focus. Oh, is that an issue? No, it's a point of pride. If we had the same ratings everyone else, what good would we do? Our data is different. Our diligence is different. We should have extremely different ratings. They don't do the same work. They don't do the same diligence, right? Why are we different? Diligence. And this is what I'm talking about today. Really, the difference between BYD and Tesla is diligence. BYD is out there delivering. They're beating Tesla in total EV sales, total EV revenue, battery technology, right? That's diligence. That's making it work. The other is hype. It's a narrative. And Tesla's an example of narrative. Wall Street's an example of narrative. New Constructs is an example of diligence, going out and finding data that people don't— other people don't see. And you don't have to take our word for it. MIT, Harvard Business School, Ernst Young, Journal of Financial Economics, written papers proving our data is superior. Yeah, we're different. Is it better? How about 43 months, 43 straight months ranked by— ranked number 1 by SumZero? How about our indices that Bloomberg has launched, right? This is, this is the index rated— this is the index of stocks that holds only very attractive stocks. Outperforming the S&P by over 7% so far this year. This was as of the end of last week, I think. Same is true for the Core Earnings Leaders Index. This is an index that holds the stocks in the Bloomberg 1000 have the strongest core earnings beating by a large margin. This is an index that says, you know what, you pick the stocks, S&P, we'll just weight them differently. The core earnings weighted S&P 500 outperforms the regular S&P 500. Better data makes a difference. And Bloomberg is hosting a special webinar to discuss these indices. There's the link for the Bloomberg webinar. One of the things I want to tell you, like when you're looking at how non-Wall Street things outperform versus how Wall Street ratings perform, how often they're buy ratings, right? And it comes back to a saying we mentioned in a training recently is that trusting Wall Street is like trusting tobacco companies who said cigarettes are not harmful. Addictive. Remember, for a long time, the tobacco company said cigarettes were not harmful or addictive. All right? And we know that to not be the case anymore. Right? We know that is not true. And look, Wall Street keeps telling you stuff that seems to be untrue. The sell-rated stocks are the best ideas. The buy-rated stocks are the worst. Right? Up is down. Down is up. You know, look for people who you can't trust. So let's get into some details around What our system says about Tesla. Talking about diligence, let's do some diligence. Okay, here's our rating for Tesla: unattractive. A strong miss earnings distortion score, which means they're very likely to miss, among the most likely firms to miss in terms of earnings. That means their, their Wall Street earnings are overstated, which is a big deal because Wall Street spends a lot of time lowering that number to make it an easy beat, and yet it's still understated. We look at even accounting earnings taking a big dip here, right? Tesla is no longer a growth story, my friends. It's no longer a growth story. Trades at a PE of what? PE something ridiculous. 136. It's a trailing PE. 136 PE compared to Ford, Tesla, Volkswagen, BYD, right? Their PEs are in the teens. They're under 20. Or much less than that. Tesla's at $136. It's not a growth story, my friends. Earnings are going down. This is reported economic earnings going down even faster. Return on invested capital on the decline. They did well for a little while. You know, capitalizing expenses works for a little while, doesn't work forever. Not a good sign. Margins coming down. We've heard about that, right? Having to give out more and more discounts. Free cash flow. How much free cash flow does Tesla generate, folks? I told you it's not as profitable as you think. How about negative free cash flow? Every year in the last 5 years, negative free cash flow. Right? That's what happens when you capitalize expenses. The cash flow don't lie. You can say, oh, my expenses are less because I'm just going to put that on the balance sheet. Doesn't, doesn't help you with free cash flow. And this is from a company that's cut back on R&D. To try and make earnings look better. Free cash flow is still negative. And by the way, that's okay if you're a growth story because you're investing in growing and you're going to have a bigger business, right? And what we're seeing, it is not a growth story and your free cash flow is negative. I got a great question here about— let's talk about price to economic book value and economic book value. You're saying economic book value is kind of all over the place. Yeah, mostly been negative. I mean, 2022 was a really good year for them on the income statement. So they had positive economic book value. You can see it still pales in comparison to the stock price. Pales in comparison to the current stock price. Yeah. So the price-to-economic book value ratio been kind of all over the place. Yes, it's been high, it's been low. It's now negative. That's a negative economic book value. You know, the profits just aren't enough to compensate for the debt. And we can take a look at what's going on the balance sheet here and on the income statement, right? So here's the report in earnings. Here's what they report in NOPAT. You can see 2022 was a pretty good year, good year for them, and it's been on the decline ever since. Net operating profit after tax, 2023, total head fake year. Earnings went up, NOPAT went down. So we've got positive NOPAT, which is great because that didn't happen right away. Now they do capitalize a lot of expenses, so this artificially boosts NOPAT. Meanwhile, you see the balance sheet's growing huge, huge, nearly, you know, doubled, 2.5x in the last few years. Invested capital, same thing, 2.5x. the last couple of years. And if we look at debt, debt's a big number. You got $14.6 billion. Another really big number that people don't talk about is options, right? It's not just Musk who's holding a bunch of options, unexercised options. It's a lot of other people to the tune, you know, when the stock price is even higher, it was $92 billion. It's dropped to $61 billion. $61 billion and $14 billion. So you're talking about nearly $75 billion in liabilities. That's why you've got a negative economic book value, because the value of the current cash flow, even if you look at the perpetuity value of that NOPAT, it's not enough to cover the liability or the amount of capital owed to existing investors. So if like you're a marginal investor thinking about investing in Tesla, You're looking at getting— you're looking at zero. You got a negative economic book value. So let's talk a little bit about, about what we're looking at in terms of— and I'm going to go with some optimistic numbers here. And this is a, this is a market share analysis in terms of the implications of the valuation. And this kind of goes back to, you know, Cathie Wood's got a $2,600 stock price, right? And we think that probably a fair value is probably closer to What do we show here? Like $25? So, you know, 1/100th of what Cathie Wood is saying. Let me show you how I come to the math. Because for me, I want to be able to talk to people with a straight face, with an honest face. And I like— and I think math is helpful for valuation. It's better than narrative. Remember, we got narrative and we got diligence. We got diligence, got performance. Narrative, you don't have good performance. So I'm suggesting go with the diligence, the math, because the narrative hasn't paid. And certainly this year it is a penalty. And so what we decided to do is look at the implied number of vehicles that Tesla would have to sell. This was back when the stock was at $290. Right? So I don't know, what is it today? She didn't look recently. I know it's bounced all over the place. $280. All right. So this analysis holds up pretty well. I was going to go through and redo some of it, but I don't think we need to. Right. So in scenario 1, we're talking about here to justify $290 a share, the revenue's got to be about $1.7 trillion. And this was in 2000— this is for 2032 based on assumptions for electric vehicle market. And well, sorry, this is their revenue in 2021. That's what it takes to justify the $290 stock price. Right. And if we assume that automotive revenue remains 86% of total revenue, then Tesla generates $1.5 trillion in automotive revenue to justify $290 a share. So, you know, maybe it's— if we're talking $280, maybe we're talking $1.4 trillion. But, you know, we're close enough. We're ballpark. Trust me, it's enough to make the point, right? This revenue figure implies Tesla will sell the following number of vehicles based on these different average selling prices. So if the ASP at the time Tesla was $47,000, well, that's 31 million vehicles they'd be selling in 2032, right? That's just dividing $1.5 trillion by $47,000. If you're selling at the average new car price, that was back in June of 2023, that's 29 or 30 million vehicles. So, you know, about the same, about the same. If you have to sell at the ASP of the average new car price across the world, then you're looking at $28,000 per car, and that's 51.6 million vehicles. So what does this mean for the implied market share for Tesla in 2032? So in this scenario, the vehicle sales noted above would represent the following implied market share. 31 million vehicles is 59% of the expected vehicle market. This is what we looked up back from the International Energy Association. So they'd be at 59% market share. I think that's— what is Tesla's market share now for the world? Is it even that high now? I don't think so. At the, at the $48,000, $49,000, it's about the same if they're selling at the, at the global new car price. And by the way, I think the lower ASP is probably the more realistic ASP because you're going to have mass market appeal. You got to be— have a mass market car. Trust me, Teslas are not a mass market car right now. Not even close, right? So they got to get that average selling price down. And that's something Musk has admitted to and talked about a lot. In the past, right? So if it gets down to something that's like the average new car price, that's 51.6 million vehicles. That's like— it's 98.5% market share. It's 98.5% market share. That's at $290 a share. So Cathie Wood says $2,600 a share. Anyone think that that makes sense? Is there a straight-faced argument anywhere in the world where $2,600 makes sense for Tesla when you do the math like this? I'm asking, help me out here, folks. I don't think there is. I'd love to be proven wrong. I'd love to believe that this is going to be the car company and Musk is going to be the person that saves the world, but the math doesn't let me believe that. And, you know, I'm just not one of those types that wants just to believe what I want to believe because it makes me feel better. That tends not to work out very well over the long term. Tends not to work out very well over the long term. Alright. Let's see. I got another Q&A here. Where's my Q&A button? Alright. You know, a couple other stats that I think are interesting as benchmarks. Toyota did 10.5. They're the number 1 carmaker and has been for a long time. Decent margins. They did 10.5 million sales in 2022. I think they're around 11 or 12 here in the last few years. 11 to 12 million, right? That's the best car company in the world. And Tesla's expected to sell, what, 30 million or 50 million vehicles? That's what the stock price implies. And we're seeing market share go down. So yeah, I think when it comes to comparing BYD to Tesla, it's very difficult to say you want to put your money in BYD. You know what? And let's take a look at Differences in valuation. Down a fair amount today. Yeah, whatever. It was up a bunch recently. Oh wow, look at this. Year to date, it's up 50%. Okay, that's good. Let's compare to Tesla, right? Tale of two stories. This is the honest narrative, my friends. This is the writing on the wall. Right? So our friends at at Data Trek in their note last night made a comment. What do you think about Wall Street sell ratings? It turns out it's a better place to find long ideas than anything else. So do not wait for Wall Street to change its opinion on Tesla. You're gonna have to wait for the stock to go way, way down. It's gonna be way too late. And new constructs, we're about giving you insight into what's gonna happen, not what has already happened. That's how we outperform. That's what diligence is about. That's kind of, you know, my honestly, my sort of the American way. I go out there, I work harder, I create value, I do something that no one else does, and it gives me insight. And I share that with other people and it creates value and we grow and we all benefit. In particular, in the capital markets, society benefits because capital goes to better places when markets are more efficient. So do we get anything in here from Google on like any kind of valuation, like a price-to-earnings ratio? Because we do not cover BYD. And I'm not saying it's a great stock. I'm just saying when it comes to valuation, BYD is a whole lot cheaper. All right. If we don't have any more questions, I'm going to end it there. Oh, here we go. Somebody came in. David, in case of Tesla, what about EV trucks, autonomy, succeeding in autonomous taxi, etc.? Future bets optionality. There should be some value assigned to such future options over time. Tesla's shown it can surprise long-term. Has it surprised? Has it delivered? I think he's surprisingly led people to believe that he's going to deliver. For a long period of time, is FSD there? All right, let's do let's do man. We've done this before. Let's see. We can do this. How does Tesla self-driving compare compare to peers? There have been some great charts that show, and we've got we've got these in some of our reports. that show Tesla's way behind in terms of self-driving. So I think, yes, everyone wants to talk about— and I've, you know, I put this on the screen a minute ago when we were talking about all these other things, this optionality. And yet when I was on Wall Street, I remember Mobergson wrote this great report called Real Options. And it was a particularly prescient report for Amazon because at the time Amazon was just a book company. And obviously became all these other things. And so there's option value for Amazon to do incredible things. And it's happened before. And it will probably happen again. But what I would tell you is that all the good news about these optionalities, when you look at the extreme valuation of Tesla, it's already priced in. It's already priced in. And when we look at these, some of these markets, it's not like they're the only firm out there. Have you seen the robots that Boston Scientific's put together? And other companies have put together the dogs, the other robots that are doing flips and gymnastics. They're light years ahead of where Tesla is on robots. All right, so it's not like he's like the only robot guy. I mean, the best we've ever seen this robot do was it was somebody dressed up as a robot. Come on, like, when has he actually demonstrated the success? FSD is behind all the— like, it's like ranked 10th out of like 15. Companies doing autonomous driving. And a lot of people think that the hardware is just never gonna work. You know who's got like tens of thousands, if not millions of miles of actual robo-taxi training data to work with? Waymo. They got these taxis actually out there working. So I'm not saying it can't happen. What I'm saying is it's not gonna make a lot of money. You hear about Google bragging about how much money Waymo is making for them? Is it a revenue source? Is the taxi business going to be a big, huge source of profits? Optionality. Yeah, he's going to have a full self-driving robo-taxi car. Great. Okay, how does that make money? You go out there and you lease it out. And whoever charges the cheapest rate for the taxi ride is going to get it because guess what? The taxi ride from one robo-taxi to another, do you care? As long as you can trust it. Is it a Tesla? Is it a Waymo car? Is it a Buick? Is it a Ford? Is it Volkswagen? Is it BMW? Is it a Volvo? As long as it's safe, maybe you'll pay a little bit more for a nicer car, but not that much more. Is going to be a profitable business? I don't think so. It's not like he's got the market cornered on FSD. So yeah, to the— to that— to that point, yeah, I don't know. I just don't think that those— I think there's optionality value there, but I don't think it's that big a deal. There have been some great charts here that show kind of a makeup of how Tesla compares. Maybe this is the one. First mover advantage lost a long time ago is what we've said. Market share— this is, this was back in 2022, pointed this out. It's a great Bloomberg chart that showed full self-driving technology and ranking it. Maybe you have to go back a little bit further on the Tesla front. But the takeaway is, yeah, it's never been that good. Never been that good. I'm sorry, it was good for a while, but it's fallen behind quite a bit. Full self-driving lags. And this is, this is years ago. It's been lagging, but I think people pointed out. So yeah, I think that's the bear— the bull case, Casper. That's the bull case. There's future bets, optionality. I'm saying the options are already super in the money. Like they are overpriced. There are like the valuation of the stock is like giving full option value. Like the options are good. Like it's not even an option. It's going to happen. And so I think that that's silly. And I think that like, you know, especially compared to BYD, to Ford, to BMW, like all these other stocks, there's zero optionality for them. All of it, like all the value for all these things is going to Tesla. And it's assuming that again, they will be profitable enterprises. I'm not sure that they'll be profitable enterprises. I can't make an argument that they will. I mean, literally, let's say right now the taxi comes out there. It's amazing. There's no pedals. There's no steering wheel. How does that make money? He sells a ton of them. Okay, sells a ton of, of robo taxis. Is he, you know, how many taxis need to be out there? Right? I mean, technically, you need a lot less taxis than you do cars. Because if people don't all own their own individual car and it doesn't sit in the driveway, you know, like 70% of the time, well, then we're all in taxis. Well, that's a whole lot less. Now all of a sudden you're selling less vehicles. Is that a good thing? Right? Does anyone ever like take these, these ideas and run them down the logic path? You know, so I, I just, I, I don't know, like, oh, he's gonna, he's gonna be the, the number 1 seller of taxis. I mean, you know, I don't know. I lived in New York for a long time. I think most of those taxis were Fords for a long time. Did Ford ever brag about how many taxi cars they sold? Now I see a lot of Toyotas out there. Did Toyota ever brag about how many taxi cars? Is that like a good business? Like the fleet business is better than maybe the regular car business? Is it a panacea for profits like we're seeing with Tesla? Right? And, and guys, it's not just about revenue either, right? When we do the— when we run the model on Tesla and we gotta, you know, we gotta really look at a very, very Extreme forecast. This is, this is 30%. To justify $278 a share, the company's got to grow revenue at 30% compounded annually for a decade. What's it doing the last few years? Did 30% 5 years ago. Last 3 years it's at 9%. Last fiscal year it's negative. Okay, they're going to go to 30% for the next 10 years. You know how many companies in the history of the world have Have S&P companies in the history of the world have grown revenues at 30% for a decade? Bet it's zero, right? But now let's look at like what this implies for profits. I've shown you what it implies for revenue, $1.3 trillion. We talked about that just a second ago and what that meant for the number of cars they had to sell. Let's talk about NOPAT. What does this mean for profits? I mean, check this out. Like, this is all a history of NOPAT. Right? Almost $200 billion in NOPAT. I think you guys have seen before, I've got a, I've got a model that ranks S&P 500 companies for a bunch of metrics from our database. So we can go in and we can actually rank the S&P 500 based on NOPAT, largest to smallest. And you can see Apple is about $100, $110 billion, $109 billion. Again, this data is a little bit old. I'm not giving out my entire S&P key stats to everybody, right? Fresh data. We've got, we've got 10-Ks that have come in since this data has come out. So it's changed a lot. We got Q1 filings coming in soon. So it's changed a lot. So Apple's at $109 billion and Tesla is expected to do $196 billion. So whatever optionality you want to give them credit for, I'd say it's more than priced in. And I honestly don't really believe in optionality like this vague thing. Oh, because we can't value it. I just did. I just valued it. Like, so, you know, you give me, give me this, give me the business case scenario that tells me how FSD, solar panels, etc., how do they get to this? Right? Break each one of them down for me. Why not? Right? Because in many ways, as much as I like Mobison's paper on real options, I think option valuation is a bit of a cop-out. Because you're just assigning it based on a Black-Scholes model, the option value. And, you know, Black-Scholes is largely affected by the volatility number. Like, the higher the volatility, the better. Like, the Black-Scholes model is an overly simplistic assessment of valuations. Let's face it, overly simplistic. So if I can give you the actual numbers, okay, how are you going to get to $196 billion in NOPAT? Then, then, then come back and tell me how each business case is going to do that. Tell me how the robo, robo taxi does it. Tell me how the cars do it. Tell me how the robot does it. Show me how you're going to sell these things, how you're going to sell them at a profit, at scale, sustainably, so that you can get to a point where you can maintain $196 billion in NOPAT every year, because that's what the stock price is saying you're going to be able to achieve and maintain. I think that's a better way to do things. Do the math. And part of the reason, you know, the option thing made a lot of sense for Mobison back in the day is because people didn't have models like this. New Constructs created these models to bring transparency to the marketplace, right? There's no reason to just put it all in a big option bucket when you can reverse engineer the cash flows required to justify the stock price. Specifically, and then you go in and say, well, this much has got to come from this business line. This much comes from this business line, and you add it up. Sum of parts. Let's do that. We do that all the time for current businesses. You hear companies or analysts talking about sum of parts for the current business. Do sum of parts for the future business. Just a bigger number. Show me how it grows. If you can't show me how it grows, why should I believe that? Right? This is part of why the narratives are kind of such a joke. They're like, oh, this is going to happen in the future. Without any specifics about how it's actually gonna happen. We'll give you that kind of specifics. I would trust specifics if I was in your position. Okay, everyone, thanks very much. We'll send out a replay along with a copy of the slides. Appreciate you being with me today, and I look forward to doing more of these with you in the future. Thank you.