AI Market Beat: Anthropic Dominates

The AI market, has it beaten or has it missed versus expectations we had in 2025? A massive beat. But then what I think is super interesting is what is the composition of this beat? Did everyone beat or is it just a few companies? Right. And I think it's actually kind of interesting on the frontier side. It's basically one company. It's just Anthropic. Monster beat. Google is probably tracking behind to some extent when you look at just the Gemini adoption and how much people are spending on Gemini. OpenAI is tracking behind. Obviously, xAI, Meta, nowhere to be seen. You could have hoped that they would have had something. They don't really, to be fair, on the open source side, I think that it's also been a beat. I think there's been some good adoption, but the dollars spent are still pretty small. So I don't know, I think it's an interesting composition of massive beats where it's basically all driven by one company, which kind of gives you a sign that it's pretty much winner takes all. And if you're state of the art, you get the bulk of the value. And if you're not, yeah, people don't spend on you.