Dylan PatelFounder and Chief Analyst, SemiAnalysis · The semiconductor-AI stack

How GitHub Copilot Fell From 100% to 25% Market Share in a Year

8 Dec 2025 · 1 min

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Dylan Patel breaks down how GitHub Copilot's market share collapsed from nearly 100% to under 25% in a year, even as the AI coding market exploded from $500M to $5-6B. The space got crowded fast, and Microsoft couldn't hold its dominance.

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These AI coding agents have grown from, you know, call it $500 million run rate at the end of last year to now $5, $6 billion now for the Q4 of this year. No question Microsoft takes a slice of that, but you've gone from near 100% or certainly way above 50% to sub-25% market share in just one year.
The point is even having a decent share in what is a much more expansive market, right? I mean, you could say we had a high share in client-server, server computing. We have much lower share than that in hyperscale, but is it a much bigger business? By orders of magnitude. So at least there's existence proof that Microsoft's been okay, even if our share position has not been as strong as it was, as long as the markets we are competing in are creating more value.