Enlightened Stock Trading - Weekly Update 22 January 2024

Hey, it's Adrian reed here. It's the 22nd of January and this is my weekly update for enlightened stock trading. So what's going on in the markets this week?

Let's start with a big quick look at the, the main markets that I trade and follow. The big news this week really is that The S&P 500 is back into all time highs. On Friday it closed above its previous all time high. So we're now in uncharted territory.

That's pretty interesting and look forward to seeing what happens with the bull market from there. But if you look at the other markets that I trade, Australia, Canada, Hong Kong, gold and bitcoin, none of them are showing anywhere near the same degree of strength. I mean most markets were up a little. Australia was up on Friday, Canada was up on Friday, Hong Kong of course was down because it's just a basket case right now. But the strength really is only in the US market. Gold has been flat for quite some time. So that's a big nothing burger right now. And Bitcoin is off its highs of about a week or so ago. So nothing terribly exciting. Let's have a look at the US market by exchange. And we've got here the nasdaq, the NYSE and the AMEX exchange. You can see that the strength is all in the nasdaq. Same story as it's been for months and months. Getting a bit boring saying that over and over again. Let me just put my thing up here. So the New York Stock Exchange is fairly flat. I mean it's, it's holding up and the AMEX is pretty weak. But again all of the strength is in the Amex right now. Let's have a look at the US large versus small. This story hasn't changed for quite some time now. At the top we've got the S&P 500. At the bottom we've got the Russell 2000 equally weighted index. So this is a much better representation of the broad market, including small caps. And you can see that this has been really weak quite a few weeks now where the S and P has been pushing higher and higher. Let's have a look at the ASX starting at the top here we've got the ASX top 50 going all the way down to the ASX all ordinaries and the ASX small ordinaries. And looking at this chart we can see basically the pattern of price behavior is very similar for all, all sizes, all sectors within, not sectors, all stratas within the market. So smalls and Large caps are behaving kind of similarly right now, so, so very different than the US market. Okay, let's have a look at the crypto market. So here we've got the S and P mega cap crypto index and we've got the S and P excluding crypto, excluding the mega caps. You can see both of those are still clearly in an uptrend, although we're off the highs of a couple of weeks ago. So still a little bit of strength in the market. But we're just resting right now and we'll see whether that that strong market continues. I mean, basically the pullback here has happened ever since the announcement of the approval for the Bitcoin etf. So let's see what happens when that market settles down, where that trend continues. So out of everything that's going on in the market right now, what I'm enjoying the most is actually the bare market in Hong Kong stocks, if you can believe it. I'm just going to pull it up over here for you. Just bear with me one sec.

Okay, let's have a look. So here is the chart of the Hang Seng and I'm going to zoom right out. And I've talked about this quite a lot. So Hong Kong has been down well and truly since 2021. There was a strong rally here towards the end of 2022 into the beginning of 23, but ever since it's been falling. So shorting in Hong Kong has been pretty great. And in January 2024, my short system in Hong Kong, slippery dip Hong Kong is up 12, just a bit over 12%. So that's the market that I'm loving the now it may not make the most money, but I do take a perverse sort of pleasure in making money when the market falls. I don't know why, just kind of tickles me. But if you haven't learned to short, then short selling in a systematic way with low risk really, really is the bomb. Because there's nothing like making money when stocks fall and everyone thinks the world is falling apart. Next thing I want to do is give you a quick update on how our signal service is doing. The Dolphin is the EST or the first of the EST signal service strategies. And and on the chart here you can see the portfolio equity curve. This is a linear scale and this one is a log scale. And you can see that systems holding up nicely, making new highs just here. So there's no drawdown right now. And I just want to show you in January it's up 1.7%. So if we go back to the chart, sorry, to the backtest, what we should be able to do is show you the last few trades. So. So it hasn't taken a trade for a couple of weeks now, but the last Trade was on the 4th of January, closed out on the 8th of January for a 4.36% gain. And then the two trades before that were a 2.81 and a 15.77% gain respectively. So Dolphin performing pretty nicely. If you haven't tried the Dolphin signal service, you can get a free 30 day trial. So click the link below this video and, and check it out. You can get 30 days for free. And then if you, if you want to keep the strategy and you don't cancel it, then you can start obviously as a paid subscriber and continue access. The next system I want to share with you or talk to you about is really exciting because it's the second of the EST signal service systems. It's not available publicly yet, but I want to give you a little sneak peek. So here what we've got is the, the Ultimo system. Ultimo is really interesting because it's a combination of seasonality and momentum in the same system and it trades highly liquid ETFs, so very little slippage, very easy to get in and get out even if you've got a big portfolio. So I'm really excited to bring this one to you, looking forward to sharing it in the next couple of weeks when we finally launch. But right now, how's Ultimo been performing and what are the stats? The system? Well, this is the version I've got right now and this is pretty much going to be the launch version. I'm doing a few tweaks here and there, but the backtested annual return has been 24%. It's right on 62% of trades. The average win is three and a half percent. The average loss is 2.6%. And across winners and losers, the average profit for all trades is 1.2%. What's even more interesting and what I'm excited about here is the max historical drawdown was 15%. So the compound annual return divided by max drawdown for this system is 1.58. So for an ETF system that trades not so frequently, they're pretty good stats. Here's the back tested equity curve and drawdown profile. So you can see that's nice and stable. So looking forward to sharing Ultimo with you. Now. The cool thing about this is that there's two versions of the Ultimo strategy that you're going to be able to choose from. One is the leverage version, what I've just shown you, and that trades the leveraged ETFs, and the other one trades unleveraged ETFs. So depending on your risk profile and also which instruments you've got access to, you'll be able to trade either. Obviously, the leverage version performs better. Much stronger growth, slightly higher drawdown, but better performance overall. But you can also trade the unleveraged version if you prefer. So that's the ultimate strategy. Looking forward to sharing that with you in the near future. All right, what's next? Let's talk about Student of the Week. This week I got an email from one of my students, John, and in the email was a selfie. John took a photo of himself sitting in his hospital bed with his laptop on that little wheelie desk. And on the laptop, what do you think he was watching? The Trader Success System. So I was watching his training to improve and master systematic trading while he was sitting in hospital recovering and waiting for all of his tests to be completed. So, John, I'm glad you're on the mend and feeling better in your home, but what I want to say is congratulations on your discipline, your dedication, your focus, and your, you know, your consistency in working towards your trading goals. Absolutely brilliant. So, Student of the Week, John, well done. Super, super proud of you.

Okay, so what other news do we have at est? Well, the big news coming up is, is the Ultimo signal service, as I said. So if you want to be first in line to find out about the Ultimo signal service and maybe even get a special deal, what I want you to do is comment below this video where wherever you're seeing this video, just comment Ultimo and I'll put you on a list to make sure that you're first in line. If you got this as part of my weekly email newsletter, reply to that email with the word Ultimo and it will add you to the list to let you know about our special launch date deal for Ultimo. So that's the big news. What other things are we working on right now? Well, January for EST is all about simplification. So we're busy stripping out unnecessary complexity in the business, hopefully to streamline things and make it better so that we can serve you better. So if you, if you have any ideas on how we can improve, I'd love to hear from you. We'd love to hear from you if you could just comment below or shoot us an email and let us know what ideas you've got to improve for us to improve so that we can serve you better and bring you more value at enlightened stock trading. Alrighty. So what's going on on the home front? Well, for me right now the family is just cruising into the end of school holidays. It's been a long one. Christmas holidays in Australia. Kids have been off school for what, eight weeks, something like that. Now they're back to school in a week, so everyone's trying to get back into the normal sleep schedule. And, you know, we've been staying up late watching movies and sleeping in and getting up late. So now it's time to get back to normal. The only other exciting thing is on the weekend I went for a surfing lesson, which was my first surfing lesson in over a year. And I got to say, I'm pretty terrible. I'm not a great surfer. I went with my daughter, who took great delight in laughing at me and telling me to fall off every time I tried to stand up and so on. But we had fun and I think I'll be back next, next week. I did discover a few muscles that I didn't know I had, so I was a bit sore the next day. But anyway, practice, practice, practice, right? Just like trading. Keep working at it and I'm sure we'll all achieve our goals. So that's it for enlightened stock traders. Update this week. If you've got any thoughts on how we can serve you better, comment below. If you want to find out about the Ultimo strategy and be the first in line, comment Ultimo below this video and I'll make sure that you're first in line to get the details when we launch it in just a minute. Couple of weeks. It's all for this video. See you in the next one. Bye for now.