Adrian Reid argues that the best path to success in (crypto) trading is a systematic approach: define absolute, objective rules for entry (when to buy), position sizing (how much to buy), and exit (when to sell). Objective if–then rules remove emotion from decisions and allow historical testing to verify profitability. Reid emphasizes momentum-style tactics (buying tokens that have rallied) and warns against the common impulse to buy falling assets to "get cheap" and then hold to break even. He also stresses diversification and acceptance of a high losing-trade rate (many traders have 40–70% losing trades) so long as winners are large.
Chapters
I believe the best way for most people to achieve success in trading and in crypto trading especially, is to adopt a systematic approach. A systematic approach means you have absolute objective rules that tell you when to get in, how much to buy, and when to get out. So if A and B and C happen, you buy. If D or E happen, you sell. And the reason this is important for a couple of reasons. The first one is when you have objective rules that tell you exactly, not maybe it's a buy, exactly when to get in, the emotion doesn't come into the decision. So the biggest problem is, one of the biggest problems is emotion. We've got to get that out of the way. So we have to know when to buy and know when to sell, even if we're scared, even if we're feeling greedy system. The systematic approach helps do that because you know exactly when to get in, when to get out. Second thing that is really powerful about having a systematic approach is if you can write your rules down in if then statements like they're purely objective, like a formula, then you can test them. And if you can test them, then you can build confidence that they're actually profitable. Now, if you've read, if you've looked at some trading books or you've read some trading blogs or whatever, you've probably seen some ideas about what you should do, when you should buy, when you should sell. You know, oh, if you, if this crossover happens or if this indicator does that you should buy. And the funny thing is, most of the rules don't really work very well, but you don't know that unless you know how to test the rules. So having objective rules is great, gets rid of the emotion, but you have to be able to test the rules to satisfy yourself that they're profitable. And so I've tested thousands of different trading ideas over the years and in crypto, probably, well, hundreds, not thousands yet, but soon.
And a lot of things that you would think work based on your experience outside of trading just don't. We've got to almost do the opposite of what our human nature drives us or compels us to do. And, and so things like.
Buying tokens that have rallied strongly.
Is a good idea, even though it feels expensive, because they've got momentum in the right direction and momentum tends to persist, particularly in this market.
And selling them when they're falling is a good idea, typically because.
The trend is over. But most people want to buy something when it's cheap, and then when it keeps falling, they want to hold on to get back to even, which is almost the exact opposite of what you've got to do to make money. Now, there's different strategies that work. You can buy things that are going up, hold them till they go up further, when they turn around and go down and sell them, you'll make a lot of money. You can also buy things that are going up, but then have a sudden dip against the trend. And if you buy it, chances are there'll be a rally. But you've got to define what is the dip, how big is that? And that has to be objective. So anyway, let me step back. The key thing is, have a system, a set of rules, be able to test it on past data so you know it's profitable. And then once you know it's profitable, diversify. Hold lots of positions with those rules so that if you're wrong on one of them, it doesn't matter. If you're wrong on two of them, it doesn't matter. You've got to be prepared. You can have a lot of losing trades. In fact, most successful traders have 40, 50, 60, 70% losing trades. But the key is your winners have got to be big.
