Adrian Reid advises against waiting to start trading until after a predicted market correction; timing the market often causes missed opportunities. He recommends implementing a systematic, backtested trading system with an acceptable drawdown and sufficient capital allocation, then going live and compounding returns over time. Reid emphasizes diversifying across strategy types (long-only trend following, mean reversion, short-side systems), timeframes (long and short term), and markets (e.g., Australia, Hong Kong, U.S.), so performance is less dependent on any single market move. The core message: get educated, build systematic rules, diversify, and start trading sensibly rather than trying to time a correction.
Chapters
Now, I don't know about you, but one of the biggest concerns that I've seen most people have in the markets is I don't want to start trading because the market is like so overextended. And surely there's going to be a correction or a bear market or a crash soon. I'll just wait and when the crash happens, then I'll get in and that way I don't have to go through all that pain. The trouble is you might feel like there's a crash just around the corner or a correction just around the corner. And people might be saying that there's a correction just around the corner, but that doesn't mean one is just around the corner. And if a correction is five years away.
And that correction is like a 10 or 20% decline and you wait for that, you miss out on all of that opportunity for profit. And yes, you'll go through that correction, but you'll still be well up or you should be well up from where you start now. Now sure, if you start trading tomorrow and the correction happens the day after tomorrow, okay, you, your account is going to take a dive, take a dip. But if you have implemented a trading system using what I've been talking about all night, which is a systematic approach that's back tested, that has a drawdown that you're comfortable with, and you allocate enough capital such that you're comfortable with that level of drawdown, then if the correction happens tomorrow, the correction happens tomorrow, you're still going to be comfortable with that. But the key is to get educated, get systematic, get in the game and, and follow the rules and over time compounding will take care of the rest. So it's really tempting to just wait for the crash, the correction and try and time it, time your entry and be that clever one that started trading straight after the crash. But the reality is it's probably never going to happen. Life's going to get in the way, you'll probably never start trading, the crash will happen and it won't be convenient anyway. You will have taken that money and spent it on something else in life. And so you won't be able to start trading after the correction. And then the market will rally and then you'll start waiting for the next correction, and so on and so on and so on. So get educated, get in the game in a safe way. That would be my advice rather than waiting for a correction. And when you go live with a long only system, don't take too long to diversify into different types of systems. It's important to have long only trend following. It's important to have mean reversion. It's important to have short side systems. If you're allowed to trade, if you can trade those so that it doesn't matter so much what the market does, you've got a different strategy that will make you some money. It's also important, as much as you can, to trade across different markets. You know, I don't just trade Australian stocks. I live in Australia right now. I trade Australia, Hong Kong and the U.S. i trade long and short. I trade long term and short term. I've got quite a few different approaches, all diversified, so they combine together into a system that works. So that would be my suggestion, rather than worrying about timing, when you get in, just get in in a sensible way and get, get in the game.
