Erik TorenbergGeneral Partner, Andreessen Horowitz

🌏 'Pacific allies are MORE MUSCULAR than European ones' 💪

4 Apr 2025 · 2 min

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1:35

In this commentary, the speaker argues that a potential peace deal in Ukraine will not embolden China, because Beijing observes how the United States reacts to geopolitical crises. He contrasts the current administration with a hypothetical Trump administration, claiming Trump would have acted more decisively on issues like the Afghanistan withdrawal, the Chinese surveillance balloon, and cyber‑hacking, thereby deterring China. The core of the analysis focuses on the differing posture of U.S. allies: Pacific partners such as Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Australia are rapidly rearming and are willing to operate under the U.S. nuclear umbrella, making them “more muscular” than European allies who face a different threat environment. The speaker notes the logistical challenge of confronting China across the Pacific and predicts a shift from reliance on expensive aircraft carriers to massive deployments of maritime and aerial drones—potentially tens of thousands—to damage the Chinese fleet without needing to bring carriers close to Chinese shores.

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Yeah, I think very quickly China's looking at this and I'm not sure that if we have a peace deal, I don't think they're going to be encouraged that it was an easy thing for Putin to go in there. And he didn't get what he wanted. He wanted all of Ukraine. And I think he looks at this administration now, whatever Trump is, he deters China much more. There wouldn't have been an Afghanistan debacle under Trump. I can guarantee you the first day that balloon started to traverse the United States, he would have shot it down and he wouldn't have allowed the hacking. So China knows that and they think he's unpredictable. The other thing about it is our allies in the Pacific that are worried about Chinese aggression are far more muscular than our allies in Europe that worry. In other words, Japan is massively rearming right now. South Korea is spending more. Taiwan is Rearming. Australia is rearming. And although they're terrified of China, they want to enlist if we're going to lead them and they're under our nuclear umbrella. So they're different type of allies is what I'm saying. It's a lot harder to go across 90 miles of water and take an island than it is just go across your border. And I think we're going to see a new type of armament. You know, it's great to have $12, $14 billion carriers, but you can't put them anywhere near the Chinese shore. But when you have maybe 20,000 or 30,000 drones, maritime drones, air drones, you could really do a lot of damage to the Chinese fleet.