College Viability Top-Bottom Reports for Missouri Private Colleges (Regional)

It's time for another episode of College Viability's 2023 Top and Bottom Reports, where we look at the best-performing and the not-so-best-performing performing private colleges in the state of Missouri this week. And we're looking at Missouri regional private colleges. And of course the data comes from the National Center for Education Statistics and its IPEDS database. And the years we look at are 2014 through 2021. And you can see the 4 fields, the 4 reports that we look at in the middle of the screen. They're not all the reports by any stretch, but they're ones that provide a relatively easy comparison of those colleges that are doing well over the last 8 reported years and those colleges that are not doing so well by comparison over the last 8 reported years. And we always start off with enrollment, and we always start off with the top. And so you can see the top-performing enrollment colleges in the state of Missouri. These are all private regional colleges. And we always jump over to the right-hand side of the report. You can see the individual years on your own. We look at the 8-year change. And we can see, for example, that Maryville University, they're up almost 3,000 students over the last 8 reported years. And I know they got a jump on the online binge a few years ago, and they've done very well with that. And you can see the others that have done so well. It's important to note that, you know, some of these colleges with, you know, 60 or 50 or even 30 students, that's over 8 years. So while they get some credit for growing enrollment, it's really not that much. And keep in mind, we used some conditional formatting on the right-hand side. Green is really good, yellow is, eh, okay, and there's no reds on this one because these colleges have at least had some enrollment growth. That won't be the case when we look at the bottom list. This is the bottom enrollment, and again, we use FTE enrollment. And FTE is just the best measure to compare students and the number of credits they take. It's an inside baseball kind of number, but it's the one we always use. And as long as we're consistent, the comparisons are valid. And we see across the board that each of these colleges, look like there's 8 or 10 there, have had decreased enrollment over the last 8 years. Again, you can look at the data on your own. They're all red, which means it's well below the threshold of what we have, and that's proprietary. But their enrollment is down. And we can look at the individual list, and we see many have had issues. Columbia College has been in the news for issues, Webster University for the news. Fontbonne has all sorts of issues. Avila University just recently had layoffs. Hannibal-LaGrange, you look at their financial statements and more data, just there's all sorts of stories here. But the reason there's value in these top/bottom lists, it gives you a tool. If you're looking at these colleges, if you're considering these colleges, to ask them, hey, why has your enrollment gone down, Webster University, 5,000 students over the last 8 years? Why has it gone down, Fontbonne University, almost 600 students? More than 40% of your total enrollment. Ask them the questions and then judge the responses that you get. Let's take a look at graduation rates. If you've heard my podcast, if you've heard my Top Bottom Reports before, if you've read my blogs, this is a hidden trauma, this is the hidden tragedy in American higher education. Now we're starting with the top, and the college viability, the minimum threshold we use for 4-year undergraduate graduation rates is 50%. And you can see that really the top 5 or 6 here are at or above that. St. Louis University, a strong Jesuit college, you would expect that. Rockhurst, very similar. Maryville just does a good job with many things, and you can see the others as well. It's worthy to note that while some of these are close to that 50% threshold, they're really below it. So the top colleges really should be Stevens and above, but sometimes they just let some of these fly. When we go to the bottom, it's scary. And again, there's 25 regional private colleges in Missouri, there's 10 or so here. Look at their 2021 number. Now, Cox College, I'm assuming, doesn't know how to enter the data, 'cause they can't have zero graduating, so that in itself, to me, is an indicator of issues, but I left it on there. You can look at all these colleges, but all these are well below that 50% threshold. How can you look at Missouri Valley College, looks like it's been pretty consistent from 2014 on, They've graduated about 15 students, 15% of their students. And let me put that in clear terms. For every 100 students that started at Missouri Valley College, for every 100 students that started at Missouri Valley College in 2018, 15, 1-5, graduated in 2021. Now some continued on and graduated after 5 years or 6 years, that's fine. Some transferred and graduated elsewhere. Elsewhere, that's fine. But it's the comparison that matters. 15% graduated here. We go back up to the top list, let's go in the middle, Stephens College, 52%. That's a threefold-plus increase at Stephens College, just as an example. And to me, that indicates a couple things, that Stephens College compared to Missouri Valley has better systems and processes in place, that's number one. And number 2, and this is kind of new and I've just been noting this recently, is you have to wonder about the quality, the academic capacity, the academic capability of the students at both of those places. Maybe too many of them at Missouri Valley College just aren't ready for college, and yet the good folks at Missouri Valley College enroll them anyway. Let's move on. Let's take a look at something that's again kind of an inside baseball term, If you've heard me do top/bottom reports before, the technical term is admissions yield. It's the percentage of students that a college accepts that actually show up, pay tuition and show up on the first day. I call it a popularity indicator, that's my term, not anybody else's, because it reflects the popularity of the institution by students that that college, that institution, has accepted. So let's look at the top, and typically with religious or very tight regional colleges, you see some good numbers. And all of these colleges are what's called non-selective. They're very generous, they're very liberal with their admission standards. Anything above 20%, give or take, is pretty good, with the exception of St. Louis University. They are kind of, sort of selective. They have a little bit higher standards, so they want that number to be pretty low. They're okay with that because they manage that lower number. But really, every other one, I think, is below 20% is kind of low. But what's interesting over here in this right-hand column is the 8-year change. And with the exception of William Jewell and Calvary, every one of the top admissions yield colleges of the 25 regional private colleges in Missouri had decreasing admissions yield. And when I go to the bottom admissions yield list, they all do. Now it looks like I went way beyond 10 colleges here, But look at the pattern. You can look at the individual numbers on your own. Every one of them has decreasing admission yield, decreasing popularity. Now, there's a couple reasons for this, and the first could be that more and more students are choosing other colleges. I'm not sure I even buy that, but I think another factor is more and more students— and I can't support this with research— more and more students are applying to college, being accepted to a college, and then not choosing to go to any college. That's the only reasonable explanation that I can come up with for so many, and that's not just the state of Missouri, it's in almost, if not every one of these top/bottom reports that I do. So you can look at their colleges on your own, you'll ask them, why are more students not accepting your offers of admissions? And then finally we'll look at the last indicator, and that's the endowment value, and of course endowments are the value of gifts donations from alumni, friends of the college, etc. And the minimum threshold we have at College Viability for an endowment is $50 million, 5-0. And you can see every one of these meet this nicely. It's well known here in St. Louis, where I'm from, that SLU does a good job, and their endowment is well over a billion dollars. College of the Ozarks, even though it's rural, has done a really good job with their endowment. And you can see the other colleges as well. But as always, it's when you go to the bottom And again, keeping in mind the minimum endowment threshold is $50 million, none of these, none of these 8 or 10 colleges meet that threshold. And even the ones with a negative number, those numbers in parentheses, at Calvary, at Cox, at Fontbonne, anytime that endowment has a negative value, and again, we use an 8-year reporting period, either they've done a really bad job with investments, which is what happens with endowments, Or they're borrowing against the endowment, they're borrowing the principal, a donated gift from that endowment to keep the lights on. They're borrowing against that endowment to make payroll. So when you see a negative value, change value for the endowment, really be concerned. To me, that's an indicator of a college in really, really significant financial trouble. Here's the kicker. When you look at these top bottoms, you probably don't even need to listen to my audio, but just use it for your own benefit for comparison. It's the comparisons, it's the trends that matter. No college anywhere is perfect, and we saw that this past week with all the news out of the Ivy Leagues and the traumas they have had. There's no perfect college for any student. The result of a college is a piece of paper that says, "Hey, I got a bachelor's degree," or, "Hey, I got an associate's degree, I got a master's degree." That's a commodity. That's what almost all employers looking for is just that degree. Whatever level they're looking for. You wanna make sure in this day and age with so many colleges in financial duress, which so, with so many especially private colleges closing, that you look for the financial health, and yes, even the viability of these colleges. And I can tell you some of the colleges on this list will not make it. Most will, but they'll have to fight their way through some serious financial challenges. So as a student or parent, focus on the stronger. Or if you really found one on the weaker or the bottom list, ask them some tough questions. Ask them, why did the enrollment decrease so much? Why is your endowment so low? Why did you have, or what have you done to improve your graduation rates? What assurances can you give me that my child or myself can graduate in 4 years? Ask tough questions. Judge the questions. I say this, I've said this before, I'll say this again. In most cases, a bad history equals a bad future. What we have done in the past, we will do in the future. That's not always the case by any stretch, but when you see this kind of data, especially if your college shows up on every one of the bottom lists, be concerned. If you have any additional questions about these colleges or like your college, your state, either public or private colleges on the Top 10 Report list, drop me a note at gary@collegeadmissions.org. Gary@collegeviability.com. That's one word, gary@collegeviability.com. I'll be happy to add that to the roster, be happy to answer your questions. Until next time, until next Sunday when we do the next Top Bottom Report, this is Gary Stocker for College Viability. Good day.