In this solo presentation, Gary Stocker, who has spent five years researching the financial health of private U.S. colleges, evaluates the viability of the nine remaining Concordia colleges and universities. He applies a consistent assessment framework that looks at enrollment trends over six years, changes in tuition‑and‑fee revenue, expense‑to‑revenue imbalances, endowment size (using a $50 million minimum as a health threshold), and six‑year graduation rates (with a 70 % benchmark). For each institution he reports the key numbers, notes where the school meets or falls short of the thresholds, and interprets the implications for long‑term stability. The analysis highlights several schools with strong endowments or balanced finances but low graduation rates, and others with declining enrollment, weak endowments, or large expense‑revenue gaps that raise concerns about possible closure or program cuts. Stocker concludes by promoting his College Viability app as a tool for prospective students to compare these financial indicators before making enrollment decisions.
Chapters
Are you looking for information about the financial health of a private college? Are you concerned private colleges you are considering might be in financial trouble or might close? Or maybe just struggle to provide a quality education? Hi, my name is Gary Stocker. For the past 5 years, I have been researching the financial health and viability of private colleges in the United States. Today I am reviewing the 9 remaining Concordia colleges and universities. Here are the 9 Concordia College or Concordia University schools that we're going to look at, and we'll go through each one on the list briefly. Let's start with Moorhead, Concordia College at Moorhead up in Minnesota. And some concerns, their enrollment is down over 500 students over the last 6 years. The revenues, the fees they collect from students, down about $8 million. A little bit of an imbalance in expenses. You can see their total expenses have gone up not quite $2 million and their revenue down just a little bit. They do have one strength when we look at their endowment. The endowment at Concordia College is $135 million, probably $140 million by now. So that does provide them some flexibility. I will also add that the 6-year graduation rate for Moorhead, at 72%, is the top graduation rate over 6 years for this entire list of schools. The threshold that we use is about 70%, so they're above that. None of the other schools are at that level or higher. Let's move on to Concordia College in New York. They show good, solid FTE enrollment growth over the 6 years, over 900 students. They've been able to grow the fees they collect from tuition, about $9 million. Uh, there's quite a bit of imbalance with the total expenses, up over $13 million. And again, they have grown the revenue, as we saw from tuition and fees, but not as much as expenses have grown. That's got to be a concern. When we look at the endowment for Concordia College in New York, at $13 million and change, not a good number. It's not just a low number. We use a threshold of $50 million, 5-0 million, but it really shows, as I've said before, an inability for this organization to put in place the systems and processes to raise gifts from alumni, friends, community, whatever the source may be. And then we will look at the graduation rates for Concordia College. We'll look at the graduation rates for Concordia College, and at 46%, not a good number, not a good number at all. Our threshold for success on this is 70%. And look at it this way, for every 100 students who started at Concordia in 2014, only 47 graduated from Concordia in 2019. Now some may have transferred elsewhere and graduated, some may be continuing their process, but as a comparison to these other colleges, and you can use this data in the College Viability app as well, Not a good number for Concordia College in New York. For Concordia University in Texas, we see really good numbers on this summary page. Enrollment is up a little bit. That's not a lot over 6 years, but it is trending in the right direction. They have been able to grow their tuition and fees revenue. Their expenses have been lower than their revenues. You don't see that very often. Congratulations to this organization for that balance. I just don't see that hardly at all with private colleges in the country. A couple areas for concern is the graduation rate. Concordia University in Texas, a graduation rate of 49%. Again, not a good number. You want to see that closer to 70%. It just shows an ability, or in this case inability, to put in place the systems and processes to get students graduated from this university in 6 years. And then we'll look at the endowment for Concordia College, Concordia University, Concordia University in Texas, and again, a low number, about half of what we like to see as a bare minimum. That would raise concerns about the long-term viability of a college with such a modest, even low, endowment fund. Looking at Concordia University in Ann Arbor, Michigan, We can see they have had good enrollment growth over the last 6 years, up almost 440 students. You have to wonder how much tuition discounting they had to do to get that growth because their tuition and fee revenue is down over $6.5 million. It's a fair assumption to make that they're discounting the tuition a lot. We could look up that number. It's interesting and commendable that they have lowered expenses almost $16 million over the last 6-year reporting period. While growing core revenues $10 million. I'm confused as to where these numbers are coming from because their tuition and fee revenue is down 6%, yet their core revenues are up $10 million. They have a modest endowment at best. Let's take a look at that. The modest endowment is not even $13 million. They didn't even report it in 2018-19. I don't know why. I have some concerns about that overall balance. But even saying that, that's a low endowment, even though they have shown some enrollment growth and expense-to-revenue balance over the last 6 years. And then when we look at their graduation rate for Concordia University in Ann Arbor at 39%, it begs the question, why go to a college when they show no capacity to graduate even half of the students who start there? Concordia University in Chicago is next. Good enrollment growth over the last 6 years, up almost 550. They have been able to grow their tuition and fee revenue. Expenses are up about $16 million and change. Revenues, core revenues, up about not quite $11 million and change. A little bit of an imbalance there, but I see much, much worse imbalances over many private colleges. Let's take a look at their endowment. Again, for Concordia University in Chicago, we're going to see A really low endowment at $24 million and change. And when we look at their graduation rate, a pattern that we see with these Concordia colleges and universities, for Concordia University in Chicago, 47%. Not a good number. Not a good number for a lot of reasons. So they have to be concerned, they have to be disappointed with that number. The challenge, the argument that I can make is that they don't have the systems and processes in place to graduate 7 or more out of every 10 students who start there. Just not a good record. Next on the list is Concordia University in Irvine, California. They have had some enrollment issues with a drop of over 400 students over the last 6 reported years. Yet they've been able to grow their tuition and fee revenue. Be interesting to find out how they did that. We'd have to ask. Quite a bit of imbalance to the negative with a change in expenses and change in core revenues to the tune of about $10 million. Over the last 6 years. They have to be looking at ways to cut that difference so there's not as many expenses. Let's take a look at the endowment for Concordia in Irvine, and again, a really modest, low endowment number. Not good. Let's look at the graduation rates, and they are slightly better for Concordia in Irvine at 63%. Better than many of the others we have seen in this Concordia group. Not quite at the threshold, but As a comparison tool, it's a good resource. Given everything else is equal between, for example, Concordia University in Texas with a 6-year graduation rate of 49% and Concordia University in Irvine with a graduation rate, 6-year graduation rate of 63%, it can be a deciding factor. Concordia University in Nebraska has effectively had flat enrollment over the last 6 reported years and also relatively flat growth in their tuition and fee change. It has gone up, unlike many, but hasn't gone up that much, especially when you look at that over a 6-year time period. A little bit of imbalance between the total change in expenses and the growth or change in core revenues, about a $3 million difference there. And the graduation rates for Concordia University in Nebraska at 64%, below our threshold of 70%, but better than many of its competitors. Next is Concordia University in St. Paul. Again, we see some, really some strong enrollment growth over the last 6 years. Equally strong growth in tuition fees charged, tuition fees collected. You like to see a kind of a good balance here with both going up aggressively in the same direction. A little bit of noticeable imbalance between change in expenses, up about $16 million, and change in core revenues up over about $6.5 million. And here's an example. And it may or may not be happening at Saint Paul, but that kind of expense-to-revenue imbalance is one of the areas where I see colleges start to making cuts. So if you're looking at Concordia Saint Paul or any other with an expense-to-revenue imbalance, ask them, have they recently cut degrees or programs or faculty or staff? Or do they have any plans to cut degrees, majors, programs, faculty, or staff? It's one of the concerns I have when I look at colleges like this. Let's look at their endowment. Concordia Saint Paul at $34 million. Still doesn't meet our threshold, but it's getting closer. We look at the graduation rates. The 6-year graduation rates for Concordia Saint Paul at 51%. Barely half of the students who start at Concordia in 2014 graduate, have graduated from Concordia in 2019. Again, they may have transferred and graduated elsewhere, but it is a good comparison from one college to the next. Concordia University in Wisconsin is last on our list. An interesting set of numbers here. Enrollment down almost 800 students over the course of the 6 years reported, 2014 to 2019. Tuition and fee revenue is up almost, well, over $15 million, but really significant expense to core revenue imbalance. So we're seeing expenses up about $36 million, core revenues down over $3 million. Remember, that would include the tuition and fees. So somewhere a revenue source has fallen off the table for this organization. Again, you have to be concerned with such an imbalance. Ask them about plans or histories of layoffs or program closing or major closings, those kind of things. Let's look at the endowment for Concordia Wisconsin. And it's at $92 million, so a good number, especially when you compare it to others in this group. Look at the graduation rate for Concordia, Wisconsin. And again, 64%, um, below our threshold, but still compares better than many of its Concordia peers. I created the College Viability app to make it easy for you to compare the financial health of the private colleges you may be considering. Don't make a college decision without checking on its financial health, especially private colleges. It's only fair. Colleges check on your financial health with the FAFSA. You should check on their financial health with the College Viability app. I have included a link to the app in the description section down below. Mm-hmm.
