In this solo video, Gary Stocker of College Viability presents a data‑driven review of Pennsylvania’s private and private‑regional colleges, using IPEDS data from 2014‑2021. He evaluates four key performance indicators—enrollment trends, 4‑year graduation rates, admissions yield (a proxy for popularity), and endowment size—applying his own minimum thresholds of 50% graduation and a $50 million endowment to flag strong versus weak institutions. The analysis highlights top performers such as Thomas Jefferson University, Carnegie Mellon, and the University of Pennsylvania, which show enrollment growth, high graduation rates, rising yield, and sizable endowments. Conversely, bottom‑ranked schools like Drexel (enrollment loss), Keystone College (low graduation rate), and Harrisburg University of Science & Technology (tiny endowment) illustrate negative trends. Stocker explains why these metrics matter for prospective students, parents, and staff, urging viewers to question colleges that consistently appear on bottom lists. He promotes the College Viability app as a tool for comparing any U.S. college across these dimensions and invites listeners to request state‑specific reports via email.
Chapters
Hey, it's January 2024 and we're going to go to Pennsylvania. And I'm guessing on this Sunday evening as I record this, it's cold and snowy. We're going to take a look at the top and bottom private colleges in Pennsylvania. And as always, we're going to compare the enrollment, we're going to compare 4-year graduation rates, admissions yield— we'll talk about that— and endowment. And as always, the data source for all these comparisons, all these top/bottom reports, is the National Center for Education Statistics and its IPEDS database. You'll see the years are from 2014 to 2021. Any day now, I'm really hoping that the good folks at the National Center release the 2022 data so I can update the College Viability App and all of these top and bottom comparisons. To the data that we go, and we always start with enrollment, we always start with the top. So let's do that, and we're going to see, as we do in almost every state, some, some private colleges, some private regional colleges doing quite well in Pennsylvania. And you see I've highlighted the column to look for for each of the top and bottom reports, you can see Thomas Jefferson, Carnegie Mellon, excuse me, and others are doing well. We even kept the University of Pennsylvania in with its 23,000 students, and even a large college like that is doing well. So there are certainly, as there are in almost every state, good private college options that are growing their enrollment. And you can also see the conditional formatting that we have. Green is good, yellow is, eh, Okay, but as always, let's go to the bottom. And again, you can see we've highlighted the 8-year changes. And which college groups would you wanna go to, those who are enrolling more and more students or those who are not? You can look at the data on your own, but even a large university like Drexel, it's lost a couple thousand students. It's a relatively small percentage. It still earns our red conditional formatting. But look at the other colleges with much smaller enrollment than Drexel and much more substantial, by comparison as a percentage, losses in enrollment. When you lose enrollment, you lose the revenue that comes from that enrollment, you lose students in your classes, and all sorts of things that aren't good. And so what's the purpose of this? Well, as you look at colleges for your student or look to transfer colleges, as many do this time of year, This is a comparison. The College Viability app is a comparison that lets you compare one college to another, private or public, across the country to see which ones are growing, which ones have good graduation rates, and on and on it goes. And speaking of graduation rates, let's take a look at the top 4-year graduation rate percentages in Pennsylvania. Really, really strong numbers. And there's 88 private colleges, private regional colleges in Pennsylvania, And so we've got a really strong set. The, the minimum threshold for those who follow the top-bottom reports each week, the minimum threshold we have is 50% for 4 years. And you can see very strong performance. Some have some decreases in that graduation rate, but still way above the minimum threshold of 50%. And what do you think is going to happen when I click on the bottom? I've said it before and I'll say it again. A college doesn't exist for students to take classes, take tests, pay tuition. A college exists to get students through to graduation. If they're not doing that, as we see here for about 10 or 12 colleges in Pennsylvania, it begs a fair question: why are they even continuing to do what they have always done, 'cause without exception, as I look at this data, the graduation rates are not good. I could use the word pathetic, but that's a little bit too strong. And even one, the Yeshiva College, the bottom, I left it in, but they don't, it appears they don't even know how to report graduation rates. And you've heard me talk about that before. Again, do the comparison, make your own decision, but compare, you know, a Keystone College with 36% graduation, when they click back up to the higher rates. Let's grab Bryn Mawr, 81%. You tell me which one is going, has the systems and processes and even the capable students of graduating. And the popularity indicator, that's my term, that's not the official term. The official term is admissions yield. And this really is a reflection of the market. And the column that I've highlighted here is the change. We're looking at a pattern of change over the 8 years reported. From 2014 to 2021, and you want to look for a positive number. Even though Jefferson— Thomas Jefferson didn't report the data for 4 years, and I don't know why that's the case, I left it in there. They've grown 17%. Their 8-year change is up 17 points because reported as 0 in 2014. That's our base year. And you can see the others all have some growth in the admissions yield and the popularity indicator. They're more popular today than they were yesterday. That's my interpretation. And again, when we go to the bottom, look at the column I've highlighted. All 15 or so— looks like I've got a longer list because a lot of them have the same number— all of these have an 8-year change that's a negative number, suggesting that the market is making a decision, like markets always do, that students considering the colleges you see on this list— and every week when I post these are making other decisions. They're either choosing other colleges, or what I think is also happening, they're applying to these colleges and then choosing not to go anywhere. And this isn't a Gary Stalker, this isn't a U.S. News and World Report or any other kind of rating or ranking agency. This is the college market in Pennsylvania and elsewhere saying that each of these colleges you see on this list and others, they probably are all or not on here, they're saying there are better options than this college. So Keystone College, right there in the middle, down 17 points, 50% almost. The market is saying, I have found better options. Consider that as you're looking at these colleges. And lastly, we'll take a look at endowments. And of course, the University of Pennsylvania is going to have a big one, and others in the college— in Pennsylvania private regionals do as well. I don't— so I don't select out the elite colleges in this report I do on the Basic College Viability app. So some of the big colleges are on here. They've got strong endowments. That's good, you want to know that. But again, when we go to the bottom list, you can see, you know, I'm guessing the Harrisburg University of Science and Technology, they probably live hand to mouth, paycheck to paycheck, tuition payment to tuition payment. They just reported the data in the last 2 years. I assume they have some results back here, but look at all the data points. And again, those that follow these podcasts and other college viability reports, the minimum threshold that we have— and this is our own— is $50 million. $50 million is the bare minimum threshold for a regional private college to have. And you can see none of these have even reached the $10 million mark, let alone the $50 million mark. One thing that's interesting that I don't always see, and that's that 6-year change column. All those numbers are positive, which indicates, low though the total amount might be, they've at least grown a little bit over the last 8 years. If that number is negative, that's not a good thing, and you've heard me talk about that before. I'll share that for the next time that happens. And so what do we do with these data comparisons? I provide them. The College Viability App provides these comparisons for every college public and private in the country, and there are 88 regionals in Pennsylvania. I posted about the top 10 and bottom 10. I took some poetic license with that. And like I said just a minute ago, the full version of the app, and I'll make a link available in the show notes, will let you compare all the private colleges in Pennsylvania, really across the country. And so as a student or a parent or even faculty and staff, if you're looking for that next gig, that next career opportunity, I would encourage you to focus on the stronger private colleges in Pennsylvania and elsewhere. And those colleges that you see on the bottom list report after report, they're consistently on the bottom list, I would provide guidance that those should be considered only with aggressive questioning. Ask your admissions rep, ask whoever on that campus, why did the enrollment decrease so much? Why did it go down so much? Why is your endowment so low? You can use whatever minimum number you want. I use $50 million, of course. And then what have you done to improve graduation rates? If a college isn't graduating students, in my mind, that's a big issue. And you're certainly more than entitled to ask them why before you start writing checks for that college. And the old Latin saying, caveat emptor, let the buyer beware, is translated. That's what applies in these situations. I can make a logical and reasonable and fact-based case that a bad history for these 4 reports in the Top Bottom Reports in most but not all cases equal a bad future. Make your own decisions. We provide the data. Hey, let's do it again next Sunday. I'll get another Top Bottom Report out. If you have a specific state, a specific type of college you'd like reported on, send me a note at gary@collegeviability.com. The address is there on your screen, and we'll certainly, we'll certainly add that to our list. Until then, this is Gary Stocker with College Viability.
