This Week In College Viability (TWICV) for March 4 2024

It's a Monday. It's March 4th on a Monday, and it's March 4th, 2024, so it must be time for another episode of This Week in College Viability. Hi, my name is Gary Stocker. Where are we headed this week? Well, we'll start off with another unsurprising college closure announcement this past week. Get ready for some surprising ones in the next 2 months as the college year winds down. There was an interesting presidential departure from a struggling Illinois public college. And Concordia, Wisconsin and Concordia Ann Arbor are fighting for a spot in my March Madness. Not the usual March Madness. These are the colleges that are doing everything they can to look bad. Webster University here in St. Louis and Birmingham Southern College are already on my March list. Next is Manhattan College. The faculty think they're being betrayed. We'll talk about that. And then finally, the annual Inside Higher Education College Presidents Survey is out. And as I read through that again this year, one question I think they should ask next year to these college presidents is, how delusional are you about your college's financial prospects? We'll giggle as we talk about that. One big layoff and cutback this week, and that, of course, is Notre Dame College in Ohio. They have spent the last couple of months saying the end was near. I believe they tried to get married to Cleveland State in nearby Ohio somewhere. I can't remember where that was. Didn't happen. They're closing up later this spring. I believe it was in May. That was coming, no surprise. I probably had even mentioned that was inevitable in previous podcasts. Be ready for some surprising ones. I don't know that I can, and I wouldn't share which ones I think are going to close. Because that's not proper and I'm just not going to do that. But I know there's going to be some surprising ones coming out sometime soon. Page 2, Western Illinois University. The president who's been there since 2022, I believe it might be 2020, announced he is leaving at the end of March. That's pretty short notice. And here's why I think that is particularly newsworthy. Now, I've just said I won't ever predict which colleges will close publicly. I have my own private list. But man, if there's ever a public college in danger of shutting up, it is Western Illinois University. They have enrollment issues, they have geographical issues, they have leadership issues. I, it's strange. And this came from WQAD, Channel 8 ABC in Davenport was a story on this. And you're gonna hear the same words that we always hear. We'll, we'll do a nationwide, nationwide search to find someone to lead Western Illinois into the future, into a profitable, successful future. Maybe. I doubt it. Concordia University announces cut to staff, faculty at both campuses. We've talked about this before. This story came from Megan Carpenter and Spectrum News Wisconsin on March 1st. And what essentially came out of this article is not much specific. They're pretty vague. The college is pretty vague. About the details for what was effectively a college in a full collapse mode. And you know what I'm going to say on Concordia? Day late, dollar short. They should have been looking at consolidations, cutbacks a long, long time ago. The only saving grace for Columbia is that it is in a mega metropolitan area. And as I think about this, I may need to add them to my March Madness list also. Their president, after speaking with the student government body a couple weeks ago, announced his departure the next day. So the similarities between the two, $38 million deficit, they're gonna make that up, $38 million. I just rounded it to $30 million to make the numbers easy. And say they net $30,000 per student, they don't even come close to that. But $30 million divided by $30,000 of tuition per student equal 1,000 new students. And that's at list price. This is Columbia College in Chicago. Now, if we look at the actual tuition, probably is not $30,000, the net is probably closer to $15,000. So we double that 50% tuition discount, you're looking at 2,000 students. They would need to bring in 2,000 students at $15,000 net tuition revenue. To make up anything close to that $38 million deficit. And then they, they announced— Columbia College Chicago announced they were going to lay off between 11 and 13 faculty. Let's assume each one makes $100,000. That's probably a stretch, but let's assume that. Do the math at 13 students, that's $1.3 million in savings on a $38 million deficit. I can use the word delusion all the time, anytime I want, because I'm right. I can't imagine what these folks are thinking. And then back to Concordia just for a second. This was a story from Gene Novici on CBS News Detroit on March 2nd, and the college is saying they're going to stay open. This is Concordia University, Wisconsin, uh, stay open for a year. Uh, the enrollment has gone up a little bit. But the revenue has gone down. And as I have shared many times, and as we see many times, colleges continue to give away the store, to give away the proverbial education store, just to get students in the door, just to say our enrollment is up. And the, the, the child, the perfect case for this is Iowa Wesleyan last year. Enrollment was up something like 300 students over 8 years, and their unfunded tuition discounts was up something like $8 million. They couldn't keep the store open because they gave away all the coffee. They gave away all the candy bars. To get customers in the door. Now, what caught my attention on this story from Genovici is he noted that students are ecstatic. I'm reading from the story. Students are ecstatic. God wouldn't let us fall. Well, okay, faith is good. Faith is important. I, I wonder if the students and the faculty and staff and the community at at and around Notre Dame College made the same prayer or similar prayer requests to God? One year is not going to get you your degree. We're not talking about a hamburger stand staying open for another year. This is at least a 4-year investment. 4 years and they're thankful for one. All right. Maybe, maybe. But I think, you know, maybe delusion is the word of the day for this episode of This Week in College Viability. Brian Alexander, I want to welcome him to the club. The— say, share the same information that This Week in College Viability shares, but do it later. So Brian is joining the late but not too late club. His March 1st email, his email post about all the cutbacks and layoffs, effectively reproduces what I've released on a much timelier basis for the last many, many months. So if you are a higher education social media poster and need information on college cutbacks or layoffs, drop me a note. I've got countless Google alerts out there on those kind of things. I'll be glad to share them with you. That way you don't have to be a month or two or three late like some of these other folks are. I'm happy to lead the world in announcing those changes. Um, be happy to do that. And I know Brian is busy doing other really good things, and good for him. Here at College Viability, we cover the business changes and you don't have to wait a month or two to get them. Page 3, Webster University. Have I ever mentioned, referenced Webster University before? Sarcasm should give you a sarcasm alert on that stuff. Webster found out from a court hearing last week that they can go ahead and tap restricted donor money. And this is what we talked about previously. Webster, in its many efforts to look bad, had asked donors to release their restricted funds for dedicated nursing scholarships or business scholarships or theater scholarships, whatever. And the community outcry was significantly negative. But nonetheless, the judge, with some restrictions and some chastising to Webster, said, go ahead. And here's what's going to happen. I think I'm going to go ahead and open a coffee and donut shop. I'm going to open a coffee and donut shop outside of every courthouse in America. And here's why. We are about to see a rush of colleges, about to see a rush of colleges racing to those courthouses. To ask for the chance to take good faith gifts from their donors, from Friends of the College, for dedicated use, and use those gifts offered in good faith by their donors just to keep the lights on, just to meet payroll. And if there's going to be a line outside the courthouse of colleges wanting to do that, I'm going to be there to sell them coffee. And donuts. Mark my word, you'll see these kinds of stories increase in the coming weeks and months. To Manhattan College we go, and the story reads, Manhattan College Betrays Faculty. And this is from the Daily News, N-O-U-S, on March 4th, written by Justin Weinberg. And again, I'll include the story link in the show notes. In January, Manhattan College announced program cutbacks about 20 majors and minors. Nothing new there. And in the usual refrain from faculty, here's what they said. According to faculty, I'm quoting from Justin Weinberg's article, according to the faculty, the layoffs were a totally unilateral top-down decision by the institution's president. I've heard that before, we'll hear that again. And the Chronicle notes, Chronicle for Higher Education, notes that the college has not declared a financial exigency. We've heard that before, we'll hear it again. And so the layoffs violate the norms of tenure protection. And there's a lot more going on behind the story of the norms of tenure protection, and maybe we'll do that on another podcast. Well, first of all, the college has declared a financial exigency, just not in so many words. Their actions certainly imply and suggest a financial exigency. And I understand to declare it is a big deal. It's part of the process. But we continue to see college leaders try and declare financial exigency without actually declaring it. And that's what's happened here. Now, now don't get me wrong for a second. Nothing wrong with fighting for your job. Nothing wrong with these faculty looking for an opportunity to save their jobs. Each of us should do that and probably would. But this continues to be a supply, supply and demand scenario. There are too many college seats. There are too few students, as I have said many times before. There are too few students willing to pay whatever the tuition rate is for those too many seats. We are, I'll say it again, in the midst of consolidation. In higher education. Fewer colleges, fewer programs, fewer majors, and almost certainly, almost certainly, fewer faculty. And the consolidation will take two forms. I've said this before and I'll say it again. The consolidation will take two forms. The closures we are seeing now will be followed by substantial mergers and even some cash acquisitions in some form or fashion. And even Megan Zahnheiss at the Chronicle got in on the story, and her lead was, these tenured professors thought they were safe from Manhattan College's latest layoffs, period. They were wrong, period. This is from February 28th, and I'll quote from her story. This is Megan Zahnheiss in the Chronicle. In what felt to some faculty members like a bait and switch, several senior professors who assumed their jobs weren't at risk now face termination, while more junior scholars who signed buyout agreements now find themselves unable to revoke those deals. I don't doubt for a second the accuracy and legitimacy of that part of the story. The college leadership, in this case, the board chair, Steven J. Squeri, told the Riverdale Press that the board stands behind the president, President Reverso, R-I-V-E-R-S-O, behind President Russo's decisions. The faculty, of course, do not because they've already issued the expected faculty resolution of no confidence, but the board is behind him. Again, almost always the case. But here's the part that bothers me. In response to detailed questions from Chronicle, from Megan Zahnheis in the Chronicle, Russo Vercel provided a statement saying that he could not comment on personal matters. Understood. He goes on to say, it serves no purpose— it serves no purpose for me to debate the inaccurate statements that have circulated about our financial situation. I have no idea what he means by that. Suffice it to say, he goes on, the president of Manhattan College, suffice it to say that we are addressing our issues and we are on a road to recovery. And again, delusion clearly is the theme for this, for this episode. Two sets of delusion here. The first is that the faculty is delusional that the administration is not being fair. I can't imagine what it's like to be a college leader these days. The pressure, the financial pressures, the political pressures, the social pressures, the boatload of stakeholders involved in colleges, it can't be easy. And fairness, of course, is always in the eye of the beholder. That's not the issue here. This is finances. The issue is supply and demand. But there's also delusion on the part of leadership in Manhattan College in thinking that Manhattan College students can look forward to long-term financial stability. That's a quote from the article. That's delusional. Too many colleges, too few students. Page 4, delusion again. This time, the Inside Higher Education Annual College President Survey. This is from Josh Moody. And here's all I wanna focus on this. In the category of delusion that we've talked about, college presidents in too many cases continue to think that their college is fine financially, but the industry as a whole is not. And the Inside Higher Education numbers suggest that 82% of presidents over 5 years and 80% of presidents over 10 years think their college will be fine just as it is. Oof, I wish I could create a pill to fix delusion. What are they looking at? What are they looking at? They certainly aren't looking outside their own institutions. They are probably so parochially focused that they can't even look at their competition. And I know this, I look at the data constantly. There is no way No way that closures and consolidation don't become even more common than they are now. Now, there was one piece of information I thought was reasonable and fair from Josh Moody's article, and he did reference, or somebody else referenced, there was possibly a survey bias in the IHE survey. There was a few hundred public and private colleges who participated, good numbers there. In the article, it was suggested that there might be some bias because troubled colleges, financially troubled colleges, may have been less inclined to participate. Because you don't really wanna, even though the survey's anonymous, you don't really wanna say in words and numbers that my college is not gonna make it or my college is not in good shape. So that's a possibility. I'll have a link to the story in the show notes. And then finally today, before we look, before we wrap this up, Ricardo Aziz wrote a story, posted a link on Higher Ed Dive, talked about how can governors oversee, oversee successful higher education mergers. How can governors oversee successful higher education mergers? And there are several factors that Dr. Aziz talks about in his February 29th post that influence the outcomes of consolidation efforts, including whether it's including relationships with public officials and those kind of things. Now, he offers some good qualities for sure, and one thing that I really noted that I want to focus on and add a comment— and Dr. Aziz says, to the extent possible, the qualities of a designated leader leading these mergers, consolidations, acquisitions, whatever they are— to the extent possible, they, these leaders, should be individuals whose reputations and livelihoods do not fully or at all depend on the success of the transformation effort. He goes on to add, individuals should be both courageous and true servant leaders. No question on both. The logistics might be challenging, but let me add this. I think, I offer, I don't think, I offer, I believe that the courage these folks need should come from the data. The roots of courage for higher education leaders are in the data. There is no shortage of data on finances and completions, outcomes and enrollments. Leaders can learn to accept the reality that the higher education market is experiencing the ultimate prototypical supply and demand scenario. No number of programmatic adjustments will alter the fact that there are too many college seats and not enough students willing to pay for those seats. And then let's wrap this up. Colleges and closings, college closings and mergers by state. And this is from the good folks at Higher Education Dive. I just grabbed a couple. They update this regularly. In the last, since 2016, Massachusetts has had 10. Private college enclosures, private college closures. Cambridge, Pine Manor, Becker, Newberry, Mount Ida are some of them. Illinois has had 8: Lincoln Christian College, Lincoln College, McMurray, Robert Morris, Northland College, all in the last 6 or 8 years. Ohio has had 5, including Notre Dame College, Chatfield, Urbana, and others. New York has had 10: the College of St. Rose this year, Alliance last year, Medaille last year, Casanova last year, Concordia leading the way for the Concordia Colleges in 2021, College of New Rochelle, and a couple of others. Now, it's not quite one non-for-profit private college per month since 2016, but the pattern is there. And, and you can tell me I'm wrong. You can tell me that these numbers are too small. You can try and tell me that they won't impact the market perception. Of colleges, particularly private, especially small. But I'm right. It is a big deal. There are thousands, if not tens of thousands of students, thousands of faculty and staff, thousands of community members who are impacted by this. And if you follow me at all, you'll know my outlook is not good. Closures and consolidations will continue. So the 2024 Private College Viability App is out there. I'll have links in the show notes. The public version of the 2024 College Viability App is probably out next week. Look at the data, don't look at the data, be informed, don't be informed, your choice. And either way, I'll be back next Monday with another episode of This Week in College Viability. My name is Gary Stocker. Till next time.