This Week In College Viability (TWICV) for Aug 11, 2025

Hello everybody, it is Monday, August 11th, 2025. Time for yet another episode of This Week in College Viability News and Commentary. And of course, this is the podcast that talks about the financial health and viability of public and private colleges with data, with details and perspectives offered nowhere else. This podcast is the alternative media source for colleges and students and their families and communities. And I work every week, every single week, to expose the spin, the stalls, and the silliness that too often parades higher education in America. Hi everybody, Gary Stocker. Thanks for making time to join us. And hey, while listening to the podcast, think of those who you can share the link with. This is a unique approach to podcasting, and many, many others would love to hear some additional perspective, a new perspective on higher education. This week, a bellwether— I'll talk about that in a minute— a bellwether warns of school closures and consolidations ahead. You will be surprised when I share what part of the market this headline addresses. And Peter Khoury, we've had him on the podcast, his stories on the podcast many times before, has a social media post this week on LinkedIn, I believe, calls it the manufactured crisis. College closures are not abrupt, they're allowed, and we'll talk about that. Elite colleges are still, still accepting students for the academic year that starts almost today. And a day late and a dollar short on public college in Illinois. And again, please feel free, and I would encourage you to share the podcast link with many, many others. Layoffs and cutbacks every single week We have them— cuts looming at the University of Nebraska. I think it's 20, almost $28 million in a budget deficit. They're gonna have to cut back. Stanford University to eliminate 363 workers amid federal funding cuts. Details are in the show notes that I'll make available. That story is from Audrey Tomlin on Bay City News. The University of New Hampshire to lay off 23 employees and cut on 13 cut, cut 13 unfilled positions. That's from their student president, and that's Ian Lenahan on the Portsmouth Herald on August 7th has that story. And again, details on all these stories, links to all these stories in the show notes page. To Peter Corey, some excellent content, an excellent perspective, exceptional experience from Dr. Corey. The Manufactured Crisis. College closures are not abrupt, although we believe them to be. College closures are not abrupt, they're allowed, Dr. Corey says. And he says this is an exposé on the false theater of surprise and the institutional rot we keep pretending not to see. This is not from me, although I like the words. This is from Dr. Peter Corey. And the performance begins the same way, he says, in quotes, shocking announcement. Students blindsided, faculty devastated, and no one could have seen this coming. Except we could. We do. We always do. And so he says, let's stop pretending. And that's what we're all about here at College Viability. We know. I know the ones that aren't going to make it. I know by looking at the data. And he continues, this is not a tragedy. He makes the case it is theater executed with precision, protected by plausible deniability. I haven't used that term much, but that's clearly what's happening when college leaders have provided sanitized public consumption information by foundations and consultants and a media class, news reporters in too many cases who are more invested in the narrative of the closure heartbreak than the discipline of accountability. And we're about accountability here at College Viability, and that's why we have so many listeners listening to this show, 10,000, while we have 50,000 in the last year on the College Viability channel on YouTube. And Dr. Corey goes on— I'll get back to that— Dr. Corey goes on, the real surprise is not that these colleges are closing. The real surprise is how long we collectively pretend they were not already closed. This false theater of surprise and institutional rot we keep pretending not to see. And to be clear, and I've said this before, Dr. Corey says, to be clear, people will always need to learn.

That's going to happen.

There are millions that have— that gain and earn great value from their college experience, and learning will continue. Skills will be acquired, credentials will emerge. But if colleges, Dr. Corey adds, if colleges cling to legacy models that reward inertia over innovation, they will be replaced by institutions and platforms willing to meet learners where they are and where the world is going. We'll have more on that later in the podcast. And the pattern that we pretend not to know, Dr. Corey notes, in 2024, alone, at least 16— 1/6— nonprofit colleges closed. Headlines always described them as sudden. Students were devastated. Donors were blindsided. But the data was there. He cites the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia showing with great accuracy the predictability of these closings. And the warning signs, Dr. Corey adds, are not complex. We know that here at College Viability. They are obvious. They are clear for years and years in advance. Years of consecutive operating losses, for details.

Frequent leadership turnover.

I've teased the best leading indicator of a college in trouble is how many leaders have the word interim in front of their name. We see rising tuition discount rates, giving more of the store to get students in the door.

and revolving door of consultants in place of strategy.

The institutions know, Dr. Corey adds.

Their boards know. The finance teams know. I know. And yet the world is stunned. The world is shocked when this happens. Coverage of these closures, Dr. Corey adds, tends to zero in on the immediate pain. And there's pain for sure. Students displaced, faculty blindsided, and communities mourning the loss of a campus and all of its associated trauma. And these reactions, he's right, these reactions are real. They matter. But too often the coverage treats each closure like a natural disaster, sudden and inexplicable and outside of human decline. But the pattern is there. The pattern is always there. And he concludes, Stop treating college closures like weather events. They are not acts of nature. They are the end result of choices and systems that prioritize preservation over adaptation. And reporters who engage in just flattening these dynamics and keeping the public trapped in a loop of reaction instead of reflection And finally, if we wanna break that cycle, the stories must evolve. We need journalism to see, that sees the whole picture, the whole financial trauma leading up to closures and not just the final scene. So again, I've done this many times over the past years. Journalists, even media outlets who are not journalists by profession or trade, I'll give you free access to the 2025 College Viability App and the 2025 College Majors Completion App to see what majors are working and not. If you're a legitimate journalist, you can get free access to the Private College Advanced Financial Compass that Matt Hendricks developed at Perspective Data Science. Drop me a note to gary@collegeviability— that's one word— collegeviability.com. And we'll authenticate your credentials and get you those, those links, those apps right away. Clark's Summit closed about a year ago, and David Turner on LinkedIn had a post on— I've had a post on LinkedIn on August 7th of last week, and he's talking in general about Christian education, but it kind of reinforces what we just talked about.

And he writes— Dr. Turner writes, or David Turner writes, I'm not sure he's a doctor— David Turner writes, Christian colleges, universities, and seminaries continue to struggle with unsustainable tuition-driven income models. More mergers, retrenchments, and closings are inevitable. Inevitable. Thank you for joining the club, Mr. Turner. Especially when trustees, he adds, and administrators have their heads in the sand. He cites my work. And he talks about the closure of Clark Summit University on July 1st of last year, a little over a year ago. And he notes that the administration gave an explanation or gave the impression that they had exhausted every possible solution for an acute financial problem. And they tried to portray the school, as do all colleges, they tried to portray it as a sudden crisis, but analysis by my peer Jeff Spear, a CFO colleague, as well as some folks at the Middle States Commission, showed that the CS— that the Clark Summit University had been trending downward for a period of years. And it's obvious, it's just plain obvious. That's why looking at the app today is more important than looking at the app after your college announces exigency, after announces the possibility of closures, a closure, after announces the possibility, the actuality of layoffs and cutbacks. Get the apps today. I'll have links in the show notes for those. And, and Clark Summit is, is, is, it's same story, different details. And that's what I just told a reporter a few hours ago who I was talking to about another college. Same situation, different details. And Mr. Turner concludes about Clark Summit that their only hope This is a year ago, more than a year ago. There was no hope that things would improve in the future apart from a divine intervention. And he concludes with, divine intervention is not— divine intervention is not a business plan. Bellwether indicator warns of school closures, consolidations ahead. Anna Murad had this on K12 Dive. On August 7th. Now when you hear that headline, you're thinking, oh great, Stalker has another college closure story. No, no, I would do, but not this one. No, this one is on kindergarten through 12, on K-12. Let me read you some of the bullet points from Ms. Murad. School closures and consolidations could occur more frequently in the coming months and years as student enrollment continues to decline. The analysis of 9,300 school districts found that 68— 6-8% experienced declining enrollments between 2019 and 2024 school years. And despite the tumultuous combination of drops in enrollment and funding, for a majority of districts— not all, but a majority— very few are actually closing school buildings, even given the high cost to maintain them when under capacity. And again, these are not colleges, these are K-12s. And here's my take. This is the future. This is the future of college enrollment. Actually, it's the present and the future of college enrollment. And folks, you may think this, but I am not an alarmist. I can see where you can make the case, but I look at the data almost daily and sometimes many times, many times during a day. There will be, without a doubt, more consolidation. Closures now and mergers later. What I'm not able to know, what I'm not able to say with any confidence, is when. I believe we are already well into the closure phase. The large-scale merger phase that I've talked about many times before will come when colleges that barely survive now realize that growing to scale across both academic and non-academic operations is the best and most likely route to continue. And if you disagree, certainly there will be those that do, drop me a note to gary@collegeviability.com.

We can chat.

I'll even invite you on the podcast. Page 3.

This is from James Murphy and it talks about this from Remove Paywall.

I don't know what that is.

Why elite colleges are still accepting students from their waitlists.

With less than a month before school starts, some colleges and universities are reaching out to students way later than usual and offering them spots in their freshman class.

Here's why.

In a typical year, the story reads, college admissions forums are usually taken over by rising seniors about this time of year, actually a little bit earlier in the summer. And, and yes, their parents are part of that as well, and they're talking about the next admission cycle. Which would be those students starting college in August, thereabouts, of 2026.

This summer, the waitlist chatter, he writes, went deep into July. Independent counselors have been gossiping in group chats about how many students were still getting admitted in these high-level Ivies, Power Four kind of colleges in June and July. And it's not just how late these admissions officers are going to the waitlist, it's who's doing it. In mid-June, there was a source, College Confidential, reported that their kids had received emails from Columbia asking whether they wanted to stay on their extended waitlist. Harvard has done something similar. Stanford reportedly did the same.

Duke—

gonna have a story about Duke here in a moment. And why? It's because they are worried about their budgets. They have lost for sure at least some portion of federal funds from public policy changes, and they're going down to reach into the next level of students that they weren't able to accept for whatever reason the first time around. And the next story is Duke reopens its waitlist, enrolls roughly 50 more students to the class of 2029. Ryan Kilgallen had that story in the Chronicle. Of higher education on August 6th. And I'm using this story to reinforce what I've been saying and what many others have also suggested. The big boys at Duke and the Ivies and Power Fours, well, they're going to get their students. The higher education quality food chain will grab additional students and it will trickle on down until it gets to the low end of that quality food chain. That perception food chain. And those at the end of that chain will be the colleges most directly impacted by public policy changes in terms of revenue. The enrollment slope will be a part of that. And just basic supply and demand will be a part of that. The Dukes of the world will be fine. It is those with 1,000 students or fewer, or even 3,000 students or fewer, who those last 5 or 10 or 20 students make or break their financial year matter, and they may not— in as many cases, won't get those students this year. And I will add, it will— it's going to get very ugly very quickly, and I'm talking about this week, next week, this month, next month, and the months that follow. Southern Illinois University Carbondale— the story is a day late and a dollar short. SIU Carbondale enhances efforts to recruit and support international students. That's fine. They're certainly welcome to do that. Many colleges have done that. And this is an internal document from SIU Carbondale posted to their website. Kim Renfeld wrote the story. And here's the part that shows a day late and a dollar short. As part of the Imagine 2030 strategic plan, SIU Carbondale has enhanced its efforts to recruit and retain international students. In the past 2 years, the university has established partnerships with more than 60 international students, um, do they read the newspapers? Do they read the web pages at Southern Illinois Carbondale? The number of international students headed to the United States, it could reach catastrophic decline. And, and here's my point, you know, again, day late, dollar short, but if I'm at SIU Carbondale, I, I don't know that I want this press release to go out. It kind of suggests you don't know what the heck's going on. Page 4, and I'm going to do a wrap on this. We had the Ryan Craig newsletter story last week, and that's why I kind of did the wrap, and I was running long, so I cut it off. And you recall that, that Craig cited a story about how CVS, the pharmaceutical chain, drugstore chain, locks many of its products in plastic cases. And he went on to add or draw a connection that colliders are effectively doing the same thing. And he made the case, and you can listen to last week's podcast to show that colleges were not giving easy access to what students needed. And he goes on, this is the new part this week, Ryan Craig goes on to add, if more colleges and universities led with science, they'd launch more economically relevant programs. He cited one study where only 15% of new programs were STEM, 75%, again, those that didn't pay attention in math class, 75 out of 100 new programs from the arts, humanities, and social sciences. And he also adds schools would be more likely to discontinue unproductive programs like those in arts, humanities, and social sciences. They might also, Ryan Craig writes, focus more resources on higher-value programs. One of the higher educations— and this is an important part of the story— one of the higher education's Higher education's unsung scandals is enrollment caps for the most remunerative— for those that make money— remunerative majors, remunerative majors, namely the technical and the scientific. He notes, while student demand for these quantitative programs has increased, colleges and universities have added faculty slower than it now takes to shop at CVS and get behind those plastic locked plastic counters, locked plastic shelves that we see. And the result, not nearly enough seats, particularly at public institutions. Okay, we'll take his word for that.

And then he adds, and this is, this is the indictment part, Ryan Craig notes that many publics play a bait and switch game, admitting students as freshmen Then rejecting, rejecting them from higher value technical programs as sophomores and juniors. And they do that through outdated prerequisites, weed out courses, really tough courses, and GPA requirements. You have to have a 3.5, whatever, to get into this program. But they do it— he, he suggests, he notes, he reports— but they do it actually due to lack of capacity to seat those students in the classes. So, nearly half of all students who say they want to complete these programs never ever do. And what, sadly, what an indictment. What a— sarcasm alert— what a fine higher education beast we have created. And it appears to be one that will fight for every proverbial hill to maintain its current ways on the business of teaching, the business of educating college students. Geesh, double geesh. Hey, I'm out of time again this week. Always, I'm grateful for those that make time to listen to the podcast. Make sure to drop me a note at gary@collegeviability.com. And like I said at the top of the show, at the top of the podcast, share the link with friends, family, and relatives. We need more people aware of an alternative news source, alternative media source that College Viability provides. Hey, I'll be back next week. This is Gary Stocker for College Viability. We'll talk then.