This Week In College Viability (TWICV) for Oct 27 2025

It is Monday, October 27, 2025. Yes, time again for another episode of This Week in College Viability News and Commentary. Hi everybody, Gary Stocker in front of the blue Yeti microphone. And of course, this is the podcast, probably the only podcast that talks about the financial health and viability of public and private colleges with data and with details and perspectives offered, I don't think, anywhere else. Call it your education, your college education about colleges. This week we're going to talk about Central Washington University says flat. Flat is good, they say. Get out your anti-spin pills for this one. And Wilberforce University launches a feasibility study to revive a historic football program. This one has been closed for decades. I'll have more on that. And then why college direct admissions is growing nationally. You're not going to be surprised at the way I look at that. And Jeff Salengo always has good stuff. It's the cost and the outcomes, and I'll expand on that. And we're going to wrap with, is freezing tuition a good idea? And of course, much, much more. And as always, don't, don't be a hog. Share this podcast. Share this podcast link with your higher ed friends, your neighbors, your colleagues, your family members. No sense in just you getting the latest news and commentary on the whole higher education industry layoffs and cutbacks. Let's start with the Green College. Michigan State University lays off 99 employees. Along with budget pressures from rising costs, the university has faced dozens of federal grant terminations leading to another 83 job cuts. So I guess that makes a total 100 82, if I did my math right, published on October 23rd by Ben Unglesby at Higher Education Dive. Between fiscal years '23 and '24, Michigan State's operating expenses rose 10% to $3.2 billion with a B, and they rose 17, almost 18% between fiscal years 2020, the pandemic year, and 2024. Revenue hasn't kept pace. And the university's operating loss widened by nearly 25% to $840 million in an operating loss in 2024. But again, yes, it's an operating loss, but the state funding and other outside revenue always factors in. And so the university, they write, and truly ended up in a total net position, but not from operating cash, but essentially from subsidies from a variety of sources. From Northern Michigan, we go to Northern Colorado. University of Northern Colorado plans to lay off 50— 5-0— employees. State budget cuts and a smaller-than-expected fall class contributed to millions of dollars of pressure on the public institution's budget. Ben Ingallsby was busy last week. On October 23rd, he published that story at Higher Education Dive. And between 2018 and 2023, University of Northern Colorado Their fall headcount fell by nearly a third to 9,000 students and change. I'm gonna do this one right, sarcasm alert. Maybe they should try direct admits in Colorado like I'm gonna talk about later today. College drivel today. Let me read this one to you. College drivel. Though the program has been defunct for decades, Its legacy remains a point of pride for alumni and historians. Doesn't say anything about students. The revival of football— this is at Wilberforce— the revival of football would not only honor that history but also position Wilberforce to benefit from the broader resurgence of HBCU athletics. I'm going to have a lot more on that in a couple of minutes. To Central Washington we go. Flat is good, reads the headline. Brian Kelly at the Daily Record News had this on October 25th. Flat is good. Officials see positive signs in fall enrollment numbers at Central Washington University. Here's what Mr. Kelly writes. The final fall numbers at Central Washington University show that the 2025 enrollment is essentially flat, and they say that's a good thing. Total enrollment for the fall is down 2.3% from the fall 2024 headcount. And they said in this story, while lower, it's much improved. There's your spin. Get your spin pills out. While it's lower, it's much improved from the 9% decline seen in the fall of 2021. During the pandemic. Boy, I hope so. Central Washington President Jim Wohlpart said enrollment slipped by 200 students. So I guess to the data I must go early in this podcast. Central Washington University in full-time equivalent enrollment from 2016 to 2023 decreased 2,400+ students. Decreased more than 2,000 students over 8 years. And while I was there, I looked at graduate student enrollment. That has decreased 360 students plus in the last 8 reported years. And this is, this is yet another example of what I've talked about before. It's another example of regurgitation reporting. A reporter takes a press release and sends it out without an ounce of critical analysis. That's why I'm here, I guess. I'm doing the critical analysis piece. And one final bit for Central Washington University: tuition and fees operating revenue is down $14 million, down 14, decreased $14 million since 2016, or from 2016 to 2023. Reporters, I'm going to make the offer again. I will give you the data tools to use No charge, no commitment. I'll even train you. I even set up a quick 15-20 minute demo to show you how to use them. If you're interested, reporters, so you can actually do some critical analysis, drop me a note at gary@collegeviability.com. That's gary@collegeviability.com. I need a geesh jar. G-E-E-S-H. Because in this case, I need somebody to give me a gish. I just— we need to do a better job of reporting on the actual analyzed analytical critical thinking pieces of where so many public and private colleges are in this country. And page 2, let's get back to football. Let's get back to rejuvenating football after decades, yes, decades of not having a football program at Wilbur Forrest University. They're launching a feasibility study. All right, they're taking it slow. This is an internal press release from September 17th of this year. I must have missed the first round on that. And it is— they're looking at doing football. So, so let me help. You know I'm a good guy, right? Let me help. Don't, don't, don't do football. The enrollment is down just 31 students since 2016. It's up 55 from 2022 to 2023. They haven't even reported the 2024 data yet. That's really, really late. That's never a good indicator. And get out your pen and paper for this one. The 4-year graduation rate for undergraduates at Wilberforce University— the 4-year graduation rate averages less than 10 percent from 2016 to 2023. That's not a college. It's not even a tuition collection agency. They're graduating next to nobody, and they want to add football. Towards what end? So that of the 100 people on the football team, 10 of them can graduate? More, more data. Tuition fees are down $2.6 million. Net income margin is down 30% in 2023. Again, they've not even submitted their 2024 data. The endowment is $7 million and change, not much more than college couch money. And they said they had 1,000 students. I don't see where that number comes from. I show 465 students in 2023, I think minus full-time equivalents. Maybe there is— there's total students. That's still quite a big number. All right, don't overforce this. What you should do if you want to raise money: don't raise it for football, raise it to put the systems and processes in place to graduate the students that you already have. So let's move on. Michael Burke and edsource.org on October 23rd has this headline: You're in And didn't even apply. Why college direct admissions is growing nationally. This one caught my attention, so I did a little research before I went into too much analysis. And in this article on direct admissions, where students are admitted without even asking to be admitted— that's my definition, that's not what others do— in this article, the word pay, as in pay tuition, was mentioned once. The word tuition in this article from Michael Burke on you're in and you didn't even apply— the word tuition was mentioned zero times. And these colleges talk about student access, and, and that's— I'll give you a definition of student access. It's getting them in the door and not worrying about their graduation. How many times, how many, many times on this very podcast have we talked about the low, the catastrophically low graduation rates? And yet now there is this move. Minnesota is gonna be the focal point of the story. There is this move to admit high school students without them even applying. Let me read part of the story. Minnesota is one of a growing number of states that offer direct admissions a program in which colleges and universities admit students even before they apply. Students are typically admitted based on meeting requirements. All right, I wonder what those are. Meeting requirements such as a minimum grade point average, though this does not always guarantee them access to every major program. All right, reasonable for short. Many colleges, as we know, are struggling with declining enrollments and see direct admissions as a way to get more students to attend. Doesn't say anything about graduating. To attend, to enroll. And it goes on to write, and for students who may not realize they are eligible, they are eligible for admission, or are unsure about college, the automatic offer can be the nudge they need to enroll. So I, I wonder why I wonder why these students don't realize they are eligible for admission. They must not have that much interest in college to even look up to see if they are eligible for admission, and they get this mail or email that says, "Hey, you're in." Once again, colleges, colleges are trying to push marginally qualified, maybe marginally interested students to enroll. They are doing so to capture tuition and fee dollars. So, you know, as a business, I can't argue with that, but it goes back to the completion piece. They're getting the revenue on the front end and they're not graduating enough students, nearly enough students on the back end. I would make the case this is a selfish approach. This is a selfish approach that colleges are using to get the tuition dollars today and damn the financial consequences for the students who can't, won't, or don't finish. Proof they have in this article: in the Minnesota State System, which has 7 four-year universities and 26, 26 two-year universities, Enrollment has increased each of the past 3 years. The hikes in recent years followed 15 consecutive years of enrollment decline. So if we can't have students earn their way in, as was apparently over the last 15 years, we open the door and push them in. I don't know if that's the right way to say that or not. So let's do this. Call me, call me in 1 year, call me in 3 years, and share with me If in Minnesota, 'cause this is the article focus, call me in 1 to 3 years and share with me if the graduation rates have improved in Minnesota public and privates or not. And again, it's clear, too clear that for too many colleges, the focus is on enrollment and it's tuition fee dollars with graduation or career guidance taking a seat in the rear of the classroom. They call it accessibility, but in this market, it's nothing more than an unfiltered tuition and fees money grab. And in my mind, it has done so without any obvious focus on getting these same students, direct admit or otherwise, through to graduation. And then Taylor O'Drill, who is the assistant professor of education policy, education policy studies at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. Ms. Taylor, excuse me, Ms. O'Drill says, for students, one of the top perks is that direct admissions reduces the administrative burden placed on students, said Taylor O'Drill, an assistant professor of education policy. She goes on to say, and is quoted in this article, "In general, direct admissions can make the biggest difference for students who are on the margin and unsure of whether they are going to attend college." When applying for other colleges, the story goes on to say— this is not from Ms. O'Dell— when applying for other colleges, students often have to write essays, submit transcripts, or even get, heaven forbid, letters of recommendation. So Ms. O'Dell concludes with saying, so the idea behind direct admissions is cutting out that red tape. Red tape? Essays, transcripts, letters of recommendation? Really? Red tape, Ms. O'Dell? So sure, sure, sure, let's, let's, let's make it so simple that students don't have to do anything. Don't have to do anything to get into college. What we are moving toward is a college heartbeat, a college heartbeat enrollment model. Something along the lines of have heartbeat, you're enrolled. No need to actually do anything. Oh, I missed it. Sarcasm alert, my apologies. And this one deserves at least a triple jeesh. Page 3, Jeff Slingo always, always has good stuff. Always has good stuff. His book that just came out, I think it was last month or earlier this month, Dream School, is just fabulous. And it's really not even, even though I read the book, bought the book and read it, it's really for, in large part, most part, for students and their families. Just, he thinks things through and writes so well. I'm a little envious he writes so well. I wish I could do that much. So here's something that Jeff posted on LinkedIn. It was last week, and he's been out promoting the book, which, good for him. After the last 6 weeks on the road, Mr. Selingo says, talking to families about Dream School, his book, I think this is fundamentally the issue facing higher education Affordability in the midst of uncertainty. Mr. Slingo says the questions I get most often, no matter the socioeconomic status of the audience, center around affordability and outcomes in a job market where these people themselves— the parents he's talking about— where these people themselves already see their own work lives being reshaped by artificial intelligence and in an economy where we're not sure what's really happening. So here's how Jeff concludes. So it's not, like we hear so many times, so it's not about telling our story better or proving our value as colleges. That's just running the plays From the old playbook, that's probably what they'll do it well for Wilberforce. Higher education needs to tackle costs, he writes. Rethink pricing, he writes. And then, given current political realities, figure out a financing framework that is a combination of institutional, private, and public resources. So affordability and outcomes, these are the two, the two focal points that Mr. Salengo offers. And outcomes, of course, are graduation rates. And what I would also offer— financially rewarding first post-college jobs. That's the outcomes. Graduation rates got to go up, got to get above at least 50%, for crying out loud. But I would also add that affordability goes two ways, not just for the students. The obvious one is, is can students and families afford college. That's the obvious affordability issue. The less spoken affordability issue is, can colleges themselves— can colleges themselves afford the 60% tuition discounts that the market is at right now? Can they offer those high discounts off those high list prices? And can these colleges still have the financial resources to provide a quality education? I'm going to add across dozens and dozens of majors because, as you've heard me talk before, too many colleges still try to be too many, try to be everything to everybody. And that's one of the other notes that Jeff Slingo had earlier this summer. He thinks this is the year when colleges will start to realize that colleges, that they can't continue to be everything for everybody and those dozens and dozens of majors I think are already starting to be whittled down in many, many public and private colleges. Page 4: as financial woes mount, more universities turn to staff layoffs. And this is from Forbes on October 24th. And the trend continues, they write in Forbes. Mike Nistel had the article. These latest layoffs continue the retrenchment trend that higher education has experienced throughout the fall semester. Well, it was last spring and summer too. Talks about in September, and they list them. Several colleges were forced to make budget cuts, many involving a significant number of staff terminations. The source on this is Inside Higher Education. And then, you know, it's public flagship universities, private research universities, and elite small colleges and regional institutions have all faced issues. With cutbacks and layoffs. And all I'm gonna say, and all I'm gonna say on this is my thanks. My thanks to Forbes for listening to the show, for listening to this show and reinforcing what I lead the show with every single Monday, layoffs and cutbacks. And let's wrap with this story. Claire Murphy in the Chronicle. On October 24th, Trump wants colleges to freeze tuition. And she asks the rhetorical question, is that a good idea? She references Trump's much talked about compact, which so far no college has signed. And it would require, one of the things it would require is institutions to freeze tuition for a minimum of 5 years. And she's got some good data, some good information in this story. But what are the drawbacks is one of the section settings she has. And she notes that policy experts, policy experts warn these freezes may not actually make college more affordable for many students. When tuition is frozen, universities have to cut costs to make up for the loss in that tuition revenue, and experts say that usually harms the amount of financial aid. All right, so the topic is freeze tuitions. Call it what you want, there is already a market-driven freeze. It's called tuition discounting. Tuition discounting, most will know it by much fancier and inaccurate names: merit aid and most, almost all scholarships. And, and this discounting is reflection As I've shared many times before, it's a reflection of the intense competition among colleges offering what in the end is a commodity. It's a degree, it's a piece of paper that says, hey, I have completed something like 120 college credits successfully. That's a commodity. How you got there— the trees are different, the grass is different, the professors are different, the majors are different, courses are different. But at the end of the day, the degree is a commodity. There will be many says no, it's not a commodity, go for it, make your case. It's a commodity. And, and of course, the downside to lower revenue is that colleges will continue to have limited financial resources to provide a quality education. To get students through graduation. There are already, already hundreds of both public and private colleges watching their financial capacity shrink to dangerous levels. A better solution would be to ask accreditors— would be to ask accreditors to do their job and remove accreditation from financially distressed colleges. Not going to happen, but it would be a solution. This would shrink the number of colleges and get us more of an economic— get us more of an economic equilibrium between the supply of colleges, of which there are too many, and the demand for those colleges, of which there are not even close to enough. We would see fewer colleges, and those colleges will be in a position to attract larger number of students because they have less competition for those students, and then provide the financial resources needed to survive and thrive as a college, and probably even survive and thrive as students. I'm reminded of an old and silly slogan from President Gerald Ford's administration: Whip inflation now. Those of you that are about my age, whip inflation now. The president wore a win Whip Inflation Now pin on his coat collar, and he was teased, as I recall, quite a bit. So as a public service for you, I have come up with a couple of acronyms for colleges associated with tuition freezes, and the first one is Really Affordable Tuition. Really Affordable Tuition. RAT. The second one is future rates escalation elimination zone. That doesn't quite roll off the tongue. Future rates escalation elimination zone freeze without the last E. Oh guys, John, I did it again. I forgot the sarcasm alert. That's kind of what we're talking about here. The market will always, always make the adjustment. You can offer to freeze tuition. It's not a good practice because you're trying to substitute for what the market will do on its own. And let's end this week's show on that note. Thanks as always for making time. Send your questions, your comments, your concerns, your challenges, your pushback to Gary. At collegeviability— that's one word— gary@collegeviability.com. And I'll be back next Monday on the very first Monday in November of 2025. I look forward to being back with you then. Thanks again for always listening.