This Week In College Viability (TWICV) Special Episode with Dean Hoke

Welcome back to a special episode of This Week in College Viability. Hi, my name is Gary Stocker, and today we have a special guest, Dean Hoak, who is the president and CEO of the American Association of University Administrators, is a career-long education professional. We'll talk about that. And the American Association of University Administrators is, for those of you that don't know, a professional organization that promotes effective and ethical leadership, administration, and management in higher education. Dean is also the co-founder of something called the EDU Alliance, and that's a global consultancy that helps universities and colleges enhance their strategies, market intelligence, academic partnerships, and distance learning. And finally, Dean hosts, produces, and co-hosts the podcast series Higher Ed Without Borders. Welcome, Dean. Thanks for making time to join me for this special episode of This Week in College Viability.

Well, thank you very much, Gary. It's a pleasure to be on, and I think we've used up all the time just doing the introduction. So it was good to see you.

And I shortened that sucker. Indeed. Indeed. Hey, the first question in your new podcast, and this is the one for AAUA, and it's called The Next Frontier: Reimagining Higher Education. You've recently had topics on healthcare, classroom of the future, and Gen Z. Talk about what your plans are for that podcast for your audience.

Well, the idea of the podcast really came from our professional development committee, and we talked about maybe doing kind of traditional type of things. Let's just talk to individual leaders, et cetera. But we wanted to go with a monthly podcast that was dealing with certain topic areas such as healthcare, what the classroom is going to look like, non-traditional education. And so we've been going down that particular path in terms of how the program is going. We run about a 30-minute show. And in particular, I know that we're going to be looking at AI. Within the classroom, but also from a career point of view. We're also looking at other things, particularly like retention, and not of students, we're talking about of administration, which is becoming a real issue, etc. So we're going down those kinds of particular paths and not necessarily presidents that we're going to talk to.

And so, as I said in the introduction, you lead the American Association of University Administrators, and that's a 47-syllable-long title, by the way. So henceforth, Dean, we're going to call that the AAUA. And it's a resource. It's a resource for higher education leaders and administrative personnel. And almost everybody will acknowledge it's a tough gig these days for any of those roles. And I want to kind of break this question into two parts. From your experience, from your expertise, and from your responsibilities, what do you see as the future for college leaders? And we're talking presidents, CFOs, enrollment leaders, provosts in the coming 3 to 5 years.

Well, as you said, I've been at this for a long time and it's interesting to watch. We've always had challenges in crisis just in general for leaders, and they're always new and everybody's trying to figure them out. That part in some ways hasn't changed, but the complexity for presidents, for cabinet members, for the second-tier administrators has so vastly changed and also has become, quite frankly, more political as you go along, not only internally but externally. Presidents are really learning to adapt. In that, and more training needs to happen there, but also more training for their own staff support to be able to help them. There's no president on Earth that can deal with all the subject areas, whether it's the president of Ohio State University or the president of Otterbein. I mean, you, you've got— and they all have different issues. I had a A friend of mine who is at Arizona State, who was a two-time president of smaller colleges, made a great analogy. He says, when I was a president at a smaller school, about 2,000 students, if I made a decision and I was wrong, the school was dead and I was out of a job. If I make a slight mistake at Arizona State, well, it's a course correction. And it's the difference in terms of how you have to train and how you have to be able to adapt to the the world that you're in. Adaptability is the real key.

And when, you know, most of the discussion in the media focuses on the higher, higher education leaders, but your organization also has a role in kind of succession planning for the industry. And there are now, and in higher education, 25 and 35 and 45-year-olds working their way up either through the academic or administrative side. What kind of future do you see for them especially in terms of changes they need to prepare for as they become leaders in the next decade or so?

I think it's a great question. And it's one of those areas where if you are a divisional head or you're a director, you learn a little bit about your stock and trade within that particular area. But I think one of the things that has to happen more, and I say more in the liberal arts colleges, is that you need to have a broader breadth of what's happening about you. You can't stay silent in this. You learn your basics within this. For example, I started as an admissions officer. And I certainly knew my admissions, but at the same time, I found out pretty quickly in my life that I needed to learn more about faculty, get to know faculty, get faculty to know more about us. As we were going along. But I also changed jobs within the organization probably 4 or 5 times during my 8 years. And so I kept moving up in responsibility, but at the same time, I got a broader breadth of what was going on out there. I think that's a key element for people, the networking aspect of it, knowing what's going on, your own training. Learning how to make decisions, and at times changing your decisions. So, it's part of what we try to work with in terms of our younger administrators, also not to get so frustrated because the path isn't straight and narrow because it'll never be straight and narrow.

Yeah. Yeah. Let's talk about the elephant in the proverbial room. And Dean, for many private colleges, particularly small ones, particularly rural ones, not always, but generally. The challenge in 2024, of course, and beyond is financial survival. What's your personal outlook for those financially struggling colleges?

You know, I've thought obviously a lot about this over the years, both professionally when I worked at colleges and universities and as a trustee at one time, and now with the association, you know, and I started back in the late '60s, early '70s with all this. It is— it's always been about money, and at times it's always been a little bit about student. We go up and down in student populations. That's just a natural cycling of things. But this seems to be kind of a triple witch. We have the whole concept of right now is that we're seeing— everybody knows we've got the cliff. And next year is we've been looking over it and now we could step off. And that's one level of it. Second level certainly has been the COVID did hurt us. And one of the things I also think came out of the COVID besides this readjustment in enrollment is also a lot of schools got money that was being given to them by the federal government. And I, I think it's fair to say in many cases they didn't manage it as well as they could have. And I kind of get that.

Yeah.

It's some, it's some section. And then also you really get into the whole process of right now, the financial aid crisis, which is the X factor of what's going to happen there. All three of those. And it's, it's a very uncertain world. I personally think we are going to continue to see reductions. Consolidations, mergers. It just can't be helped. It's going to happen. But at the same time, we're not going to see that within the major state universities, the tier ones, the major states. No, we'll see adjustments.

Oh yeah.

But we're not going to see an enrollment issue. It's the little guys that worry me. And frankly, some should probably consolidate and go away eventually. But in many other cases, I worry about rural colleges in particular because they have a double meaning. Not only are they important in terms of the education, they're major economic engines within their own areas. And I talk about that because I served as a trustee and eventually a school that closed that was in a rural part of Ohio. And so I have some sympathy both as administrator and as trustee and as a civilian. That lived in those places. So I don't wanna make everything dark and gloomy, but yeah, we definitely have storm clouds. It's been raining and it's gonna rain harder.

Yeah. And just briefly, one of the things I always talk about is we are, you and I and everybody else in this industry are in the middle of a major market adjustment that has never ever happened before. And when you and I talk 5 years from now, we're gonna look back and say, you know what? We were sitting in the middle of a market adjustment that nobody could predict how it was gonna turn out, which colleges will survive. There'll be some surprises for those that don't. And there'll be some surprises for those colleges that do survive. But when we talk about college closures, and you and I talked briefly about this before we started recording, and over the last, I don't know, 7 years, something like that, there have been many short notice college closures. And it started with Mount Ida back in 2017. And just in the last couple of weeks, Wells College in New York and the University of the Arts in Philadelphia just last week. Yet there have been some number of college closures that have been accomplished with dignity and advance notice. And for example, McMurray in Illinois, Fontbonne in Missouri, and many others. Just from your perspective, from your experience, and from what you're hearing from others, Dean, what do you believe is the difference between those that give short notice and those that do a good job of planning for logical closure?

You know, I don't have a golden answer to that question. I don't, for example, talking about the University of the Arts, I did a little bit of reading before coming on. I wanted to see what, I think it's Middle States, that's the accrediting agency, which was the final kind of the final bullet in all this. And I was very curious about what they had to say before. In other words, what were the warnings that they were seeing? And they did have warnings and they were saying things. And for a period of 6 months, Middle States was saying, we need to see updates on your enrollments. Have you considered certain things such as teach-out, which is absolutely required, et cetera. They were giving warnings. I'm also quite convinced the University of Arts as the example, They certainly knew their financial situation, but there is this mentality, siege mentality we all get into, that once you get into the fight and you are doing everything you can, I don't believe it's that they're afraid about their jobs. I think that they're so hard into the fight, they can't look up and see what's really happening. And at times decide, no, we've got to get this more public. We've got to let people know what's happening.

Interesting.

And I blame somewhat the presidents and the provosts for that, even though I'm probably more sympathetic to the group that I'm upset with more, quite frankly, is the Board of Trustees.

Yeah, absolutely.

In the end, they have the fiduciary responsibility. They are the final person, and certainly they are the advocate in terms of this. You have to make sure that communications is going on. And a part of that communications is how do we communicate this to our community? And let them know and also do it in a way that it doesn't necessarily kill you. You may be able to save the place. You may be able to do mergers, other things. But at the same time, you have to accept what the real world is with this. So those, to me, those are the type of things. Obviously, University of Arts, it appears, sort of hit a panic point. They've done the closure. They didn't do the town hall meeting. Middle States did, which I found interesting. And I know less about Wells, but I've also watched a couple of the other schools that you talked about, and they did, they did a tactical retreat. They, they did get the word out more. Yeah, everybody's shocked as a student, everybody's shocked as a faculty member, no matter even if you know it's coming, you're still shocked that it's your responsibility to let them know as much as humanly possible and out routes and also what we're doing to try to keep the school going forward. So, you know, it's a matter of leadership and it's a matter of also the trustees.

Interesting. So you used an interesting term a couple of minutes ago. You used the triple witch, I think is the term that you used to describe where the industry— I didn't hear that before, so I like that one. And I think that the third leg, I guess, of that triple witch is the FAFSA debacle. And just, you know, I talked to a lot of folks about this and I've got my own opinions. I'm not going to share those today, but what's the best case scenario this fall and what's the worst case?

Best case scenario is they've identified their problem. They're actually trying to fix it. It's very close to being fixed. And this was a hiccup in the system. And that next year, once we go through this cycle again, everything is rosy. That's just as good as it gets. Going the other way, which is probably more realistic, is they've got some of the issues fixed. They are working towards fixing them on ancient software that if any of us have ever been involved in Transitions never go smoothly, and unfortunately they've had that happen, and that we go through this cycle again next year. That's as bad as it gets. What I think one of the things that has to happen though is that, okay, now we've had it happen to us. We have to now start assuming that as administrators, as university people, financial aid officers, etc., We're going to have issues and what are we going to do about it? Do we have any financial situation where we can maybe as a state university or larger universities be able to address those type of things so we don't lose those students? I think that's still the key issue. It's all about the students, whether they come to your place or somewhere else.

Yeah.

They're coming and how can we help them until this is settled? And how this is going to be reimbursement. So reimbursement programs. What are states doing to help possibly in addressing that? If they're going to just wait for the federal government, I wish you well. They'll do something, no doubt. But you can't just depend on one agency. You really do have to take a proactive sort of attack line. When it comes to this and be able to provide funding either through deferred monies or whatever the case may be. But a plan needs to be in place besides this fall because it certainly has hurt us this year, but it's going to hurt us even— it'll be disastrous if it happens one more time and we're not prepared for this.

Yeah. On June 21st, I'm hosting a panel podcast on This Week and we're going to talk about something that's not really come up yet, but you're kind of vaguely dancing around it. And that is federal bailout. We're going to, we're going to start talking about could it happen? Would it happen? Would it make a difference? So anyway, we're going to be doing that with some, some higher education leaders and thought leaders on June 21st.

Just to add to that, it isn't, it's not like the first time we haven't done bailouts. We've done it for corporations. And furthermore, and no, I mean, I think it's a great idea. I think it's one to be looked at. Furthermore, we did a little bit during the pandemic time. We did forms of bailouts. I don't know what the answer is, but I do think that is a part of this issue.

Yeah, that's a good point. So this is a chance to say, Gary, you're wrong. And I shared with many, including you, a couple minutes ago that my perspective and what I share in all my media is that higher education is the middle. Of a massive market adjustment. Too many seats, some estimate as many as 2 million extra seats and not enough demand. People not, not enough students willing to pay for those seats at whatever discounted price is out there. And Dean, here's the point I want you to comment on for me. I make the case that the die is cast already for many colleges and that there's no, no programmatic or marketing initiatives that will materially impact, materially impact is an important qualification, that will materially impact their finances. Am I right or am I wrong?

I could stand in the middle and go, you're kind of right and kind of wrong, but I think there are alternatives. I don't believe everything has, all the cards have been played. I think to use an old phrase, we're going to have to think out of the box. And matter of fact, I think we are. We said this 25, 30 years ago and something called online learning and digital education happened. There is a next big thing. I don't know what it is. I can't tell you that for sure, but I do know that there are alternatives that we could be doing and they're not just marketing sort of things. So that's kind of where my phraseology gets. For example, there is a growing movement in the United States, at least a dozen colleges I know, maybe 16 are looking at 3-year bachelor's degrees.

Yeah.

And it is, there have been seminars, there's actually been some curriculum. One of them has been approved. And as a person who's worked outside this country, 3-year programs, while I don't think I totally agree with them, I do see some real good possibilities. And how could we do a 3-year degree and be able to make that work? And I don't think it has to be even a specialist. So I think there is, if that happens, we have a way to adjust cost situation, which is a big deal. I don't think it's an answer to a question. I think it's a partial answer to the question. I think one of the other things that has to happen, I mentioned earlier, is about trustees. Trustees have an important role, and it's more than just sitting at the table and being the chair or the vice chair. We have to do better training of them. This is their communities. And they need to be more involved, at least not making final decisions per se, that's why you hire the presidents and things, but you do have to be more engaged in this. And furthermore, there's gotta be a lot more truth-telling going on among all sides about the good and the bad and the challenges. There may be opportunities in smaller towns to be able to do things, some adjustments in terms of new academic programs, new economic models. Don't know what they are, but I do think they're there. I do have one other one that I'm finding intriguing, um, and it goes back a long way. It's back to the old days of the consortiums, um, which existed in the '60s and the early '70s. I noticed Audubon and Antioch over the past couple years. One was primarily an undergraduate school, the other primarily graduate school. They didn't do a merger, they did a consolidation of working together would be able to do their strengths. I think there is some merit to that in terms of how you should be able to do consortiums, whether it's through academic programs or even through administration of how to be able to run a college. I think there are methodologies to do that. And I can, and I'll try to be quick on this, one last thing that I think needs to happen is that if we are going to go through consolidation, we're going to go through closures. I think a fund needs to be established to help encourage this to happen. In other words, incentive funds. Something that I've thought about and went through many years ago when I worked in public broadcasting. I was approached by the state government back there and they said, we have too many stations, we need to find a way to consolidate. And I'm going, well, that's fine, but Why? And furthermore, why should you? You know, what's in it for me? And they looked at us and said, we'll provide incentive funding if you can find ways to make this work in terms of consolidations, etc. We'll reward you for your innovation. Now, if you decide to poo-poo me, I'll remember that too. But in the end, it was, we did it. In public broadcasting with some stations, some radio and TV stations. It did work, but it took a process and we needed funding support for everybody to be able to make that work. So, I do think there are ways to be able to do things. So, those are a few examples that at least come to my mind.

So, you know, as you and I talked before we started recording, I'll post this podcast interview as a special edition of This Week in College Viability. And I do the regular Monday This Week in College Viability, where I do news and commentary, the old Paul Harvey model. And every Monday, the podcast, me, pokes, kind of pokes the bear of the folks you represent. I kind of take issue with college leaders, boards, with what they're doing, especially those colleges in trouble and for a variety of reasons. And I use my 2024 College Viability App to provide the objective data. And Dean, I don't know if you've listened to an episode or not, but I regularly make the case that college leaders have a fiduciary responsibility, and they do, as do boards, to their organizations. But there's really no one with that same fiduciary responsibility for students and their families and arguably even faculty and staff. Do students and families need the equivalent of a fiduciary these days?

In some ways, that's supposed to be the trustees when it's all said and done. So yes, maybe they're not doing the job as well, but at the same time, I'm not sure that you can have 2,000 sets of parents, 2,000 sets of students, and everybody else coming in and trying to take it, shall we say, a shareholder's sort of, I own 12 stocks in you sort of point of view. When you told me about this question, I started going, is there anything that really kind of works this way? And in some ways it's not a great example, but it is an example. Public corporations do quarterly meetings with shareholders. In which they talk and they do their financials, right? And any public corporation does it. It is an open cattle call that you can go on. Usually it's the reporters and the key financial advisors. They go on, they ask questions, and at times they're pretty darn tough questions. So I wonder if there is somewhat of a model of transparency that could fit within that, that might be able to work. In other words, that you're showing what your financials are through the quarterly or semiannual. I'm not sure about dates, but a more transparent, open sort of thing. And it isn't that everybody has to be in the same room. This crazy world of Zoom and everything else, there's no reason why you can't do wider things. So, you know, I don't think I can have them all coming in the office, but at the same time, I do think there is a way to do a better job of getting the word out and furthermore, them giving feedback.

And of course, that's the role— I'm sorry, that's the role I'm trying to take with College Viability and the College Viability app. I like to think that I'm assuming a fiduciary role because I make those comparisons available. You can compare private colleges' enrollments and graduation rates and tuition and fee revenue and all that kind of stuff on your own. And I have, you know, many, many, many students and families buy the $29 version of the app, I'm assuming just to do that. To make sure that the colleges they're looking at are at least compared favorably with finances for others. So I'm trying to make that—

And I think that's a legitimate, I think that is a legitimate tool. It's not only the inside people, it's also at times it's the outsiders, quote unquote, that have the advocacy role of trying to find ways to hold people more accountable. That's in a sense what journalists do and others that are doing things. So yeah, I think that's a great idea. I think that is a part of the fiduciary responsibility, but it's still in the parents and the students' hands because they're the one that either goes or they walk.

Right, right, right. So we've got a couple minutes left. Last question. I always do this. It's prediction time. If I had a sound effect, I would turn the sound effect on. Where is higher education 12 months from today? Where's higher education 36 months from today? I'm not looking too far out because there's going to be a lot of changes in the next 3 years.

You know, I'm going to give you two answers to this question. I'm going to give you one from AI, okay? I went into ChatGPT and I said the 4.0 version and gave it the scenario and said, give me a prediction, what do you think? And gave it to me by public, college, private, for-profit. This one scared the daylights out of me. I don't know if it was hallucinating or not, but it basically said, looking at a 5-year point of view, they believe that there will be mergers or closures of somewhere between 160 to 240 private colleges, 80 to 160 state public universities.

That's a big number.

And another 180 to 225 for for-profits.

Yeah.

Okay.

Whoa.

Now I think that's a little much, but I do believe certainly that right now, what are we averaging, around 35 to 50 that we're losing or closing every year? That pace will continue to stay up, I think, for the next 3 years. Um, it could get worse depending on how second year this financial aid thing goes. But I also think the one thing we're also seeing is that much more— keep in mind about the consolidation, and consolidation could well mean like the Pennsylvania situation where we've noticed that they've pulled back colleges, consolidated them. We're going to see more of that, I think, in the community colleges particularly. So those numbers are there, but I wanted to pull up— like I said, I just said, well, I'm going to ask AI, what does it tell me? AI is not optimistic. I'm a little more optimistic than that.

Okay, okay. Well, Dean Hoke has been my guest today. He's the president and CEO of a really long organization, the American Association of University Administrators. I said the whole thing again, Dean. Dean, I am grateful for your time. I am grateful for your expertise. I'm grateful for your experience and your dedication to higher education. I look forward to talking to you again in the future. Thanks, sir.

Thanks.