How To Make Money In The Next Market Crash

James Helliwell outlines a stock-selection framework focused on profitability, reinvestment, and dividends to build crash-resistant portfolios. He identifies US dollar weakness and reduced foreign demand for US assets as key macro risks, then walks through tactical approaches and tools designed to gain multi-percentage-point edges without trying to time the market.
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99% of YouTube is full of outrageous thumbnails screaming about bubbles in AI and trying to predict the next market crash. But the truth is that's not going to help you make money in the long run. So in this video I'm going to give you a level headed view of how you can build a portfolio that survives market crashes without needing to guess the date. See, for the last decade, foreign investors have been pouring all of this money into US stocks. The US economy was doing well. The stock market was rising and beating other global markets, and the dollar also looked strong at the same time. And this was a very attractive combination for overseas investors. US policy is undoubtedly beginning to shift. There's more tariffs tied to immigration and a greater tolerance ultimately for inflation to manage debt. And that will make U.S. assets less attractive to foreign investors. Now, most people are invested in say AN S&P 500 on NASDAQ ETF. But for those that then seek diversification by going to a global ETF like the MSCI World ETF, 72% is concentrated in US stocks and this particular one is unhedged, meaning that it's in US dollar terms. If there's an unwind, not only will investors take a hit on the prices of these stocks dropping, but also there'll be the currency impact of presumably a weaker dollar in the process. If you look at what happened to Japan, which for many decades was the strongest stock market in the world, it peaked and took 34 years to recover. So burying your head in the sand and just blindly buying etf, thinking that you diversified and thinking that currency risk and things like this just aren't applicable to you is a huge oversight. You're still massively overweight US stocks and US Tech. A typical advisor is going to tell you that you should be balanced between a 6040 split stocks to bonds. There's no protection. In a scenario where the dollar's dropping and inflation's rising, bonds are going to get smoked and that means longer until retirement because your pension pot's not going to stretch as far. And if that wasn't bad enough, then you're going to be paying 2% a year for the privilege as well in advisor fees. I've actually built a calculator tool which shows you the impact of these fees over time. And you can use to configure much you want to invest, how much you're going to contribute over time to see directly the comparison between going via an advisor where your returns get absolutely destroyed compared to going it alone using ETFs or getting the help of my program, which will give you that edge in the market. Now, the odds of an advisor actually delivering value after fees is 1 in 20. And to put those odds in perspective, it's like playing a perverted game of Russian roulette with three bullets in the chamber instead of one and spinning and pulling the trigger not once but four times and somehow surviving. If we expect inflation, the crypto and gold bull's ears are going to prick up. And whilst gold has gone a long way, crypto should still benefit from a weaker dollar, right? Well, that's actually where it gets a little bit more nuanced in a risk off environment where sentiment sours and, and liquidity is drained from the market as these bubbles burst, everything is suddenly scrutinized. So when you overlay the price of Bitcoin, you can see how closely it follows basically the same cycle. And these macro correlations drive every market. There's no diversification when you ultimately need it. If you want to try and trade like a hedge fund, you can still use things like ETFs to trade tactically in and out over a shorter time frame. And I've actually built a playbook which you can get for free, basically all the things that you need to be looking at to get a read on the cycle six to 12 months out. Now this will be ideal for some of you as it'll open up more opportunities if you want to trade tactically. But for others, you might just want to stick to stocks, which might sound crazy given everything that I've just said. But let me explain, if you've seen my other videos, you'll know that I split my process for stock investing basically into three pillars. And the idea behind portfolio construction and your investment horizon is that you basically want to have fewer positions held, held patiently over many years, as studies show that this will help you to beat the market. But it's stock selection I want to focus on here because that's the bit that most people find confusing, especially with how things are looking out there at the moment. So in principle I seek to ask three questions. Do these companies make large profits? Can they reinvest those profits so that they can scale faster than the competition? And thirdly, do they pay a dividend instead of reinvesting? Now these are the seven factors that I've programmed my model with and it gives you a list of results. Basically a ready made portfolio. But this is where it gets really clever because you can tell it to avoid tech or US companies completely and you can even give it a link to an article and have it figure out the results for us. And you can get all of this inside of my program, both the AI and the course, which will teach you not only how to build a stock portfolio for the long run, eliminating certain factors and tweaking it however you want, but also everything that I've just shown you around the macro as well, this robust machine that makes you less vulnerable to market cycles, market risks and worrying about things like so many other people seem to be at the moment. Let's use a hypothetical scenario here where you have 10k otherwise invested via an ETF, earning the market return of 10 and a half percent after 30 years or so, that's going to be worth 200 grand. That's before inflation, just to be clear. But by stacking these edges that I've just taken you through, you can do much better than that. So in the case of stock selection, if we assume a 2% edge, that would see you go from 200k to nearly 350k over the same horizon, if you add 2% more, the portfolio constructions have been concentrated in a handful of the best quality companies that should add a similar edge historically, according to the research, and take you up to 581k. And finally, with your time horizon, we can assume perhaps another 2% edge that sees you get to nearly a million quid. Now, bringing this all together, we've seen how it's actually macro and the US dollar that poses a greater risk to the overall US financial system, not only in terms of stocks, but also bonds and other traditional safe havens, which is why now is the best time to take take action. And I'm actually running a promotion for Black Friday where I'm offering you 12 month access to my program for the usual price of one month, effectively sending you £1,500 or 43% off the total price of the program. There's a link to that along with the calculator and the free macro playbook if you want to get access to it. And now that you've seen how macro affects the US economy and how the real risks are actually below the surface, you might want to check out this video which shows you how things are playing out in the UK and beyond. I'm off to have a lie down.










