100% Financing On Investment Properties - Revealed! Timing The Market: The Key To Maximizing Profits
In episode 1985, host Jason Hartman delivers a wide‑ranging real‑estate investment briefing. He opens with a personal note and then dives into the hidden wealth‑destruction risk of divorce when one spouse holds a low‑rate mortgage, warning that splitting assets in a recession can force costly refinancing. Hartman critiques how modern culture—social media, feminism, and a corporatocratic push for single‑person households—creates consumer discontent that fuels divorce and multiplies market share for goods. He debunks sensationalist claims about the US losing reserve‑currency status, citing a Cuban policy reversal that re‑accepts US dollars, and explains why the dollar’s dominance will likely persist. He celebrates a recent $55 million jury award (originally $55 M, later reduced to $30 M) from a RICO case, using it as a cautionary tale about legal risk for investors. The episode then surveys distress in multifamily housing (a Houston foreclosure of 3,200 units and $152 B of maturing mortgage‑backed loans), uninsured bank deposits, and the looming $1.5 T commercial‑real‑estate debt crisis that threatens office and retail valuations. Hartman promotes a rare 100 % financing program for up to five rental properties, and previews an upcoming live Zoom with Ron LeGrand on rent‑to‑own lease‑option strategies to generate upfront cash and reduce management burdens. The second half features guest Roger, who explains his demand‑imbalance arbitrage methodology, applying it to builder stocks (Dr. Horton) and institutional landlords (American Home Builders, Invitation Homes). He outlines chart‑based signals of price versus demand, time commitments for DIY traders, and how to interpret market cycles for entry and exit decisions. Throughout, Hartman intersperses calls to action for his website’s financing, protection, and education services.
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Welcome to episode 1985. 1985. We're getting close to 2,000 episodes here, folks, just 15 away. What should we do for our 2,000th episode? Comment below if you're watching this on video. If not, you can always send us a message. Ask a question, get help through jasonhartman.com ask. And today we have part two of demand imbalance Arbitrage. But before we get to that, I've got several things to talk to you about. If you're watching on video, I tilted the camera down just so you could see my gorgeous dog. Isn't she cute? All right, I'm tilting the camera back up so the dog's out of the picture now. So let's get into it. First of all, this is. Well, it's not funny really, but this article I just clipped for you yesterday, it's a tough time for divorcing couples who jointly own a home. Now, I've talked many times about one of the most important charts in real estate, and that is the chart that shows you how about 25% of the country has mortgages at or below 3% interest. And about 65% of the country has mortgages at or below 4% interest. These people have 28, even in some cases, almost 29 years left on these mortgages. They're going to be very hesitant to part with these properties. And divorce forces people to liquidate assets at inopportune times. That's one of the terrible wealth destroyers about divorce. And why, if it is a bad time because there's a recession or the market is down or interest rates are high and you can't match the same interest rate you already have on that mortgage, you want to go to counseling. Do not get a divorce at this time because if you own a home, you will not be able to duplicate that mortgage on possibly two new homes. Right. And of course, you all know what the rental market's done. Rents have gone through the roof. So this makes it even tougher. So this article, when Ashley Worsham was getting a divorce last year, she wanted to continue living in Sarasota, Florida. By the way, that's one of our markets. I own properties in Sarasota. Great market. Little bit on the expensive side for sure, but still good rental properties. Reach out to one of our investment counselors if you're interested in investing in the Sarasota market or the surrounding areas. So here it talks about how, you know, she purchased this home with her then husband in 2020, but refinancing their current mortgage to take him off the loan would have raised the monthly payments by about 4, $500 per month. So why does she get the house? Okay, that's another question. But whatever, you know, that's. That's an ongoing debate. Then it says instead, the pair agreed to an arrangement in which he stayed on the mortgage, allowing her to keep the 3% mortgage. So not only is he giving her the house, but he's also letting her keep the 3% mortgage now. So what do they do here? Right, And I don't know, by the way, if the lender, you know, I'm kind of guessing the lender would have a problem with this. And if they knew about it, they might start rattling the saber about the due on sale clause in a divorce. I don't know. You know, that's a. That's probably been litigated, you know, at some time or another. But whatever, forget about that. So, you know, if she defaults on that mortgage, it's going to hurt his credit, right? And she's getting all the benefit of that. So hopefully during that divorce settlement, he got something for that. Like he should get a monthly stipend for that, or he should be paid a lump sum of money to agree to stay on the mortgage. And there should be a, what's called a request for notice of default set up so that if she defaults on that mortgage, he knows about it immediately and he can do something to remedy it. So it's an interesting thing, but again, divorce is a big destroyer of wealth. And look, I've talked to you about the corporatocracy and the government and the impact of feminism many times over the years. This has caused people to be discontent. And the latest thing that's done that over the last decade or so is Instagram. Instagram is a killer of relationships, social media in general, of course, because it creates a paradigm of choice where people are always seeing some artificially modified photo and some fake lifestyle. You know, I always say to people, you know, they always say, jason, wow, your lifestyle looks so great. You know, I'm envious. And I say, look, it looks way better on Facebook. The real reality is my life is rather similar to many people's lives. I mean, look, I got some money and I try to enjoy it a little bit. I don't do a very good job of that. I should do a better job of that. That's one of my goals. The point is that social media is. It's like watching a Hollywood movie. Okay? Let's be frank. It's not reality. And so all of these discontent things, think about it stating back to the 50s and 60s, right? If you were a corporate executive, you want to double your market share, get people to stay single, or if they're married, get them discontent, breed discontent in these marriages, so they will divorce so you can sell them two toasters, two coffee makers, two sofas, two beds instead of just one of each. You literally double your market share by creating discontent and telling people they should be empowered and single and, you know, just have hookup culture and, you know, give your body away to all kinds of strangers, right? It's an absolutely disgusting world we live in. And it's only getting worse, sadly. So that's the world we live in. That's the reality. So that's the corporatocracy side. They want to double their market share because when people have two separate households, they need two of everything rather than one of everything. I mean, look, you share the coffee maker, you share the bed, you share the sofa, right? But if you're out on your own, you need your own stuff, okay? So that's one part of it. But then the tax revenue and the general economy as a whole, you could grow the economy by telling all these women who were staying at home, hey, you gotta go to work. You gotta be empowered, you know, you gotta take over the world. Go, you know, start a business, employ more people. Go see the old movie Kramer vs Kramer, right, from the 70s, and breed discontent. And that's been the culture really, ever since the 60s in the free love generation. And there is a ominous thing behind it. Double the size of the consumer market, double the size of the economy by getting people to split up, to divorce, or to never marry in the first place. And, boy, that has worked really well. And it's also caused the population collapse that is coming quickly. It's already happening around the world, but it's coming to the US just give it about 20 years and we are in for real Population collapse. It's coming, folks. Okay, so let's move on. This is interesting. You know, they keep talking, especially now. You know, the bricks had their meeting and some of them decided to trade out some of the dollar and all the clickbait you see all over YouTube and everywhere else. Oh, the dollar is ending. The reserve currency is ending. The US Is in trouble. Well, yes, it's true, vaguely. No question about it. But this takes a long, long, long time to play out. The sky is not falling anytime soon. And in a big reversal of that, I thought this article was very interesting. From France 24 News. Cuba, the little island of Cuba. I've been there. Fascinating place. In fact, we arranged a cruise there that we offered to you a couple of years ago and we had to cancel it because these ships leaving the US could no longer dock in Cuba. So I don't know if that's changed, but maybe we should arrange another cruise to Cuba because Cuba's a fascinating place. It's like going back in time to 1959 because that's when Castro took over. And when communism starts, progress stops. That's the quote for the day. When communism starts, progress stops. Okay, so Cuba, of all places like this is amazing, right? Communist Cuba announces a surprise reversal of US dollar deposit ban. So what they did is the banks in Cuba said, look, you cannot use US dollars here. We will not take them, you cannot deposit them. We all know you have relatives in Miami that are send money and they're sending it in US dollars and you want to deposit it somewhere, but you can't deposit it in the bank. But they reverse that because King Dollar is going to live on for a lot longer than anybody thinks. The reserve currency of the world will remain the reserve currency of the world for quite a while, folks. Okay, don't fall for the clickbait. It's just not going to happen anytime soon. Yes, nibbling around the edges for sure. No question. Signs. There will continue to be signs. This gives the US a huge advantage where we have exported our inflation to the rest of the world and benefited here from relatively low inflation. So what happens if we lose that reserve currency status? What happens if it changes? Right. What happens if there's this big shift? Well, then we're going to see severe inflation in the US Much worse than we see now. And it's, you know, it's been pretty bad lately, but it would get a lot worse and that would create a lot more inflation induced debt destruction for income property owners. Another great reason to invest in income property. Go to Jason hartman.com, reach out to us. We'll be happy to help you build a fantastic income property portfolio. Speaking of dollars, I wanted to just give a big congratulations to our attorneys who helped us win that big case. We did a show on this several months ago. Back last September, we got a $55 million jury award against a competitor. Six defendants that were basically trying to ruin my life, spreading all sorts of lies and misrepresentations about me and my character and all this kind of stuff. It was a terrible experience for, for me. We litigated this case for four years. And we got a $55 million jury award against them after an eight day trial in federal court. But interestingly, this award that you see on the screen if you're watching on video, my attorney was recognized as number nine among the top ten jury awards in the state of Florida. But they only call it $43,600,000. I asked him why, I said, why is that? Why is the amount different here than there? And he says, because they're counting it differently or they don't know how to count it. They don't understand that with a RICO claim for racketeering, which we won, they have to treble the damages and add mandatory attorneys fees. So anyway, look, whatever, but that was the original award. It's already been whittled down a bit because some of the things the judge thought were duplicative. And it got whittled down to about $30 million. But hey, I'm not unhappy about that. 30 million is still more than enough. Anyway, that's just kind of interesting. But yeah, it's like legal history here. Top 10 jury awards in the start in the entire state of Florida for last year. That was a big case we did. It was quite a. Quite an experience. If you're interested in knowing more about that, it was a fascinating case. Go and find my episode on that. We did an entire episode. My lawyer was on the show and he explained the whole thing. And, you know, this could happen to anybody. It could happen to you, it could happen to your business just like it happened to me. People are ruthless and terrible and unethical nowadays. So if you want to know more about that, just go look for that YouTube video or that old podcast episode and you can learn more about that. All right, so speaking of money, again, we've talked a lot about the multifamily market, the apartment market, multifamily properties, and a lot of signs of trouble there. Again, it will work its way through the system. It'll be all right. The sky is not falling, but it's gotten down a little bit lower for the time being. So there was this big foreclosure. I mean, there are foreclosures all the time, right? You know, rarely are they newsworthy, but this one's newsworthy because this was in Houston. An apartment owner lost 3,200 units. Over 3,000 apartment units went to foreclosure. That's a pretty big deal. And this ties in in a big, big way with the banking system and the distress in the banking system that we've seen from those three recent failures and even some overseas banks. Right. So $152 billion basically in US mortgages backed by rental apartment buildings. Now, that's a lot of money, $152 billion. But these are set to expire this year. So the problem is a lot of new supply has come on the market, suppressing rents, increasing vacancies. These assets are not performing nearly as well as they used to. And a lot of these apartment owners need to refinance their properties and it looks like they are going to be caught holding the bag. So we're going to see more foreclosures, we're going to see more price declines in the apartment market. And you know, we're going to see some distress there for a while. But there is still a housing shortage in the United States. So overall, the demographics are great for them. They're much better for single family homeowners or investors. You know, there's even some issues there and we continue to report on those and talk about them. So just thought I would share that. This from the Wall Street Journal, of course. Okay. Now the U.S. banks, and this is from Visual Capitalists. Okay. These U.S. banks with uninsured deposits. Okay. Above the $250,000 number, by the way, hopefully you're not keeping too much money in banks, but if you are, there are options. One is to do what they call a sweeps account, where basically you've got $250,000 of FDIC insurance. Now, we've talked before how the FDIC is woefully underfunded and could easily go bankrupt if there's a problem. Okay. But of course, the government would likely bail them out, too. Remember, that's just an insurance fund. Okay. The government would likely bail out the fdic. And how are they going to do that? Well, they're just going to create more money out of thin air and cause more inflation. Right. That's always what happens. But if you have over $250,000, the number one easiest thing you can do in the bank is just set up more entities. So go to, I think it's Jason hartman.com protect. Get yourself some LLCs set up or some corporations, and then you have separate vestings for those accounts. Plus you have asset protection. Great strategy. And we've got a great web class about that. I think it's jasonhartman.com protect easy, inexpensive. You should do it. Okay. So you can get multiple entities, have multiple vestings. Of course you can use multiple banks, but you can also do a sweeps account where basically what they do, your banker will set this up for you is they will go ahead and take your deposits at your bank and then give them to other banks so that they are insured under that FDIC limit. So there are options, okay? But again, don't depend on the fdic. That's the biggest rule. Because that insurance, who knows what will happen if there's a real, real crisis. But you see on this chart that of course, Silicon Valley bank is number one one. They've got the, they had the most uninsured deposits because they got all those, you know, billionaire tech founders and so forth that just plopped so much cash in their bank. And so that's just an interesting chart I thought I'd share with you. A lot of banks have a lot of money way over the insured limits of $250,000 per vesting, per bank. So again, get more vestings, just have more entities. And plus you'll have asset protection, you'll have tax advantages. This is a no brainer, folks. Jason hartman.com Protect. You should absolutely do that right away without fail. And then this more talking about the commercial real estate issues. A $1.5 trillion wall of debt is looming for US commercial properties. Morgan Stanley sees refinancing risk front and center. Again, a lot of these properties aren't going to be able to refinance. We talked about apartments, but worse than apartments is office and then retail. The retail apocalypse been going on for quite a while. Covid made it a lot worse. And then the office market, Covid just devastated that with remote work and so forth. So look at this. It says office and retail property valuations could fall as much as 40. That is staggering. And these loans are coming due. So in the commercial market. Trouble, Will Robinson, as the saying goes. Okay, two quick things, and these are great. You're gonna love these. First off, we had so many of you attend our 100% financing Zoom meeting that was about, oh what, a week and a half ago. And by popular demand, we did decide to replay that for you. Just go to jasonhartman.comfinancing Jason Hartman. And you can go ahead and see the replay of that Zoom meeting. And nothing down, no money down. 100% financing on investment properties. That is incredibly rare. Okay? I mean it's so rare, I haven't seen it for maybe 17 years. Okay, 17 years since I've seen an offer like that. So 100% financing. Zero down on rental properties. There's a limit of five properties per investor. Five property limit. But check it out. Jason hartman.com financing and you can watch the replay of that. Our investment counselors will be happy to put you in touch with the lender and with properties you can purchase using 100% financing. Also, we've got a special Zoom meeting coming up where I got the king himself, Ron LeGrand. Now, Ron has been on the show before. You've certainly heard of Ron LeGrand, but he's going to spend a couple of hours with us next week. This is going to be great. Here's why it's going to be great. I asked Ron. He teaches several topics, but I asked him to focus on his Rent to own lease option program. Why are you interested in this? Well, the vast majority of you listening own rental properties and you want to be free from management responsibilities and you want to get more money in your pocket today. Well, what you can do is you can do lease options or Rent to Own deals with your tenants and have a really neat, unique arrangement that can get you a bunch of upfront cash and it can relieve you from a lot of the management responsibilities. So we will be announcing that soon. Stay tuned. It is slated for the 21st and we look forward to seeing you there. So I don't have a registration page for that yet, but look for an announcement about the Ron LeGrand Zoom meeting. You can ask questions and it'll be great. It's live. This is not a webinar. It's not recorded. It's a live event with Ron in person to talk about how you can get upfront cash right away, a big chunk of upfront cash, and relieve yourself from management responsibilities by doing these creative lease option rent to own programs. Really good. A lot of my friends have done this many, many times. I was just having dinner with one of them who used this strategy for years and years on his portfolio of rental properties. Loved it. He said tenants rarely but sometimes did exercise the option to actually buy the house, but most of the time they didn't. So really neat strategy. Check this out. Look for an announcement on that. It's coming for the 100% financing, though. In the meantime, just go to Jason Hartman.com financing. Okay, I've talked long enough. We still have a guest today. So let's get back to our discussion about demand imbalance, arbitrage and how you can predict markets both in stocks and real estate. And here we go. Let's invite Roger back right now. Some of those factors, though, that you mentioned, like for example, the geopolitical situation, you know, those are soft things. I mean, they're not soft in the way you'd mostly mean them, but they're not quantifiable.
Well, it's, you're talking about central bank influences. So that, that, that takes into account interest rates. Right. Which is direct factor. Right. You've got all the macroeconomic effects. So it does take into account some of the very important factors that are going to affect, you know, the, the loan, the mortgage industry. Right. Does that make sense?
Okay, so, so tell us then what is. This is a Dr. Horton chart. What is Dr. Horton stock going to do and what is it telling us about the housing market?
So you can see here that it's, it's shifted up. So it's. So we can see here that there's room for the market to come back and hold.
Right.
Now I'll tell you something. The way that this is situated, I want to give you just a little bit of an example here. So just kind of look visually here between the low of that price and the high of that price. Okay. And I want you to see how that's being represented down below here. The low and the high makes sense. Okay. So those are just correlated. Now look at the price movement, this pullback here. Okay. Just visually speaking, you could see how that's probably. If I were to. And I want to show you this here, let me draw it here too as well. Here's the correlation to that one. Right. Okay. Now I want to show you something. If we just do.
How often are you. And let's just understand where you're coming from. Are you running a fund or are you taking other people's money and investing it for them?
I no longer do that. That wasn't as fun as teaching somebody and helping them learn how to fish and kind of feed themselves.
So this method would be for a DIY trader. That's correct. Trading. Yeah. Okay, so they're, they, are they trading every day? Like how often, you know, are you really needing to trade on your system?
Typically depending on the person's time, I say about 10 hours a week to 15 hours a week. Oh, wow.
This is a, this is. You got to pay attention to this. Got it.
Well, you don't have to be glued to it. No, it's, it's depends what you want to get out of it. Now you could do this for just an hour or two a week, depending on what you want. If you, if you're looking at a long term portfolio, then you, you know, you could spend just a couple hours a week to. Well, first of all, you got to learn the methodology that once you get over the learning curve, then you can actually do this in a few minutes. You know, you could do that once, you know, once a day for a few minutes and that's it. But if you want to actively trade a brokerage account and actually, you know, have a, you want a cash flow, you want to build wealth, then you're going to want to put about 10 hours a week, that's just a couple hours a day. So it just depends on the person's specific interests on, on what they want with. Does that make sense?
Sure.
Now look at how, how this price movement is about a third, it's moved back down, pulled back about a third of the way from where it was in the lows. But here demand has pulled back nearly 50%. So you can see that demand is outpacing price to the downside by a significant margin. So that tells us that we're likely going to see continued downward movement, you know, and again, without going into four to six weeks worth of training, that's probably going to put us somewhere, you know, in this area here ultimately. So I see more down movement coming into Dr. Horton stock right now. Along the way it can, it can move up a little bit, but ultimately I see it moving down here. So I'm, I'm going to be bearish on Dr. Horton stock. And then once we get into that new price level, we'll reassess and see what we can expect from that. Right. So there are times in the moment, there are times in the, in the market where you have, you can see weeks and months out and there are times when you can see that the market is indecisive and you need to, you can only see a few days out and you're going to have to reassess because the market's not going to just give you what you want. You're gonna have to be willing to understand the dynamics to make it work for you. And so that means not being lazy, but having a proactive approach where you have control over your investing decisions because you have a level of accuracy in your analysis that you can depend on. Does that make sense?
Yeah, sure, sure. And so if Dr. Horton gets more beat up, then I'm wondering what the answer is to the, compared to what question is that? Because the broader index of all the other home builders has been beat up even more than Dr. Horton, which is a lower end builder. You know, my thesis is that the lower end of the market is in pretty good shape. I mean, the overall market, it softening, right? Correct. Expensive properties, definitely softening. But the correct, the less expensive stuff, man, there's, there's just too much demand and too little supply.
Yeah. You know, right now as that market comes down into that price level, we can better assess whether that's going to hold and give us a little bit of a bump back up or if that's, if we're going to see continued acceleration to the downside, which, which is a precursor to a significant correction or a crash. Right. So we can kind of assess that kind of. We will cross the bridge when we get to it. Right now all, all the markets making available to us is, is that that current assessment? So, you know, and we can look at the institutional landlords, we can look at the other home builders.
Yeah, let's, let's do that. Let's look at especially the landlords. Not. I mean, the builders are a different story than the landlords. Sure. And fortunately we've got, you know, in the past we didn't have, have these big institutional landlords like we do today. I mean, they owned apartment complexes, but they didn't own single family homes like some of them do. So we really can learn more and see what they're up to. I'm kind of wondering, did they all get out over their skis or. You know, I think it's mixed. But who is this now? Is this American.
This is now American Home Builders.
Okay. American Home builders.
Yep. And so you've got.
Now look at this. Is this a rental company or a building?
They're also institutional. So now if you look here, same thing like we saw with Joe Horton. And so this is already kind of pre. Done for you. So you can kind of see when it was, when it had pulled back, we saw that things had shifted dramatically. Look at how demand fell. Okay. Below these previous lows. And so that told us.
And by the way, give us the time frame here. What, what time period is that?
So all these are going to be. Each price bar is, is a, is a week's worth of.
I know that. But like, just name the time period when you're talking about.
Okay. This was back in October. October when it pulled back.
Okay. So. So that was in the era where everybody. That was October. About interest rates here.
That was back in October of 2021, actually.
Oh, 21. Okay.
Okay. When it pulled back. So then when. So then you knew there's that arrow again from that previous high. We, we can expect that, Nate, nine times out of ten, we're going to see that recovery. And so that we know that we can allow the market to Come back up, recover a bit, and we know it's time to exit. So while it's back up in the, you know, 42 range, you can cover your downside as you wait for it to come down into the projected where demand said it was minimally going to go to, which is down to 30. So we're like, you know, again, we're.
Looking at a big downturn downtrend corresponds with the Fed's interest rate increases fairly well. The one at the end, right?
Yes.
Yeah.
So you could see all that is, is taken into account down below. Right. And you could see how once it came in and started finding some support there, you see how demand shifted dramatically there. So this is allowing the market to hold in this area and specifically for this institutional landlord, you can see that there's a box I drew that's the range where, where this is projected to be kind of moving in, in the, in the near future. Now as, as it starts to find a little bit of a support there, we're going to find out whether demand is going to be able to hold that or not. But that's a, you know, we'll cross the bridge when we get to it. But so far, that area that I've highlighted, these are boxes I'm drawing just to bring people's attention to what I'm seeing. That is the price range. We should see this basically moving around. Okay. And that's, that's America, American home builders. You want to see invitation homes as well?
Yeah, Invitation homes is the, maybe the most well known, possibly.
There we go. Okay. And invitation homes, similar to the other one actually isn't that interesting, by the way, because they're in the same asset class they also have. Right. Yeah. So there you go.
