In episode 1891 of his real‑estate podcast, Jason Hartman opens with a personal update, recounting a four‑year legal battle against a competitor that culminated in a jury verdict of roughly $60 million (including back‑interest). He describes the emotional toll, the extensive investigative effort, and the relief of having his reputation cleared. Hartman then shifts to market analysis, noting that U.S. housing inventory remains extremely low—about 551,000 homes for sale, far below the level needed for a “normal” market. He cites Altos Research’s revised year‑end projection, which has dropped from over 600,000 to around 500,000 homes, indicating a further decline. The core argument is that most homeowners now hold “negative‑interest‑rate” mortgages (rates below 3% locked for decades), making the mortgage itself a valuable asset and removing sellers’ incentive to list. He explains that only extreme macro shocks (e.g., war, pandemic) could force a significant sell‑off. Hartman also outlines three market types (linear, cyclical, hybrid) and suggests local markets may still see declines. Finally, he introduces the upcoming interview with controversial feminist author Naomi Wolf, whose new book “The Bodies of Others” investigates a taboo subject, promising a deep‑dive discussion after the market update.
Chapters
These sellers don't have any motivation to sell. This circles back to what I was saying a moment ago. And Mike at Altos notices it to, you know, look at they've got super low interest rates on their mortgages. They're not under any huge pressure to sell. If they were to sell, they can't duplicate that mortgage asset. And the mortgage is an asset when it's a super low rate, when it's a negative interest rate mortgage, when, which is what everybody in the country virtually has now. I mean, there might be like a very small number of exceptions of people that don't have negative interest rate mortgages, but everybody's got a negative interest rate mortgage. So why would they sell their property? And now here's your host, Jason Hartman with the complete solution for real estate investors. Welcome to episode 1891-1891 and thank you for joining me today. It is Labor Day. We do not have a 10th episode show today like we did Friday. But this topic, we considered making it a 10th episode show, but since it's a holiday, we'll make it a normal show. I think this is such an important topic. Our guest today will be to some a very controversial author. And she is also definitely a very famous author. And that is none other than Naomi Wolf, feminist author, more recently someone who has been talking a lot about and writing a lot about. And by the way, her books on Amazon have incredible reviews. By this one we're going to talk about today the bodies of others. I think that's got almost 1100 five star reviews. Really just phenomenal. She takes a deep dive and investigative reporter dive into the topic that nobody can talk about. And that is, well, you know, that thing that's been going on the last couple of years. So it's affected the entire world and probably you. Before we get to our author, I have some updated inventory statistics to share with you. And I also have to share something on a personal note which we already recorded a show on this topic and we'll air that soon for you. But only a few of you know this, but over the last four years I have been going through a very, very difficult time. A competitor basically has been out to destroy me and destroy my business. I have suffered with depression. I mean just unbelievable amount of suffering and an unbelievable amount of time it has taken me to deal with this terrible situation. But thankfully it came to a very good ending. Last week we took him to court. It was four years. Yes, it took four years over 1400 days to deal with this. And we won a jury of eight of our peers ruled in my favor. And we got a huge jury verdict for over $60 million when you count the Beck interest that is owed. Now, I haven't collected a single penny, and I doubt I'll ever collect all of that money, but I'll definitely collect some of it. It was really great to see the jury clear my name and my great reputation that I have spent many, many decades building. You know, in life, it's hard to have a good reputation because it's. It takes a lot more effort. It takes a lot more money. You make less money if you're going to do the right thing. You know, all those people out there who are just these scam artists and, you know, have the sort of Churnum and Burnham mentality, you know, they get rich really fast. You know, I got rich much more slowly. And, you know, it was. It was just really tough these last four years. I mean, this story is like an amazing spy movie. In fact, my competitor, who was trying to ruin me, hired a marketing agency to ruin me. They even dubbed the project MI5 after the British intelligence agency. You know, you've. You've all seen the great spy movies where they talk about MI5. In fact, there are movies called MI5, and I think there's a TV series. And this story is going to blow your mind. And we did a whole episode on it. It's already recorded, and we'll have that for you soon. But it's just really great. I actually at first miscalculated the jury verdict in the $40 million range, but it was actually approximately $49 million. And then when you add the back interest, that totaled like another $11 million, if you can believe it. I mean, it's a lot of money and interest for almost four years that is due as well. So I'll tell you a lot more about it. But it was really just great to see that my name was cleared. People invaded my privacy. They misappropriated my name, my likeness, my trademarks. They competed unfairly. And a jury of eight people unanimously decided that they did the wrong thing and, and has awarded me a huge verdict for my victimization. They just took huge advantages of me, and it was very unfair what they did. So more to come on that one. But on the good side, my creativity has been stifled, my relationships have been stifled, my physical fitness and health has been stifled, mental health and physical health. Because of all the ways that this just affected me over the last four years. And I'm glad to see it worked out. This has Easily taken me at least two hours a day, every day of my life over the last four years, not including just all the time I had to spend thinking about it. But literally, it took a quarter of my work day every day to just deal with this situation because there were so many aspects. I said to my attorney, it was like starting a new company. I had to basically start another company. There were so many people we had to hire, so many subpoenas that had to be issued, so many investigators that had to be hired, cyber investigators, people from all over the world and companies from all over the world that we had to engage with. You're just not going to believe it. I mean, it is literally like a spy movie. And it's awful what happened to me. It could happen to any of you. It could happen to anybody, you know, could happen to any of your family members. And it was awful. So you can learn more about it soon. But I just am glad to say it was a very tough fight, but we won and we got a very nice jury award. I think the jury made a very good decision and more to come. Okay, so you'll hear more about this. Anyway, so our guest today, Naomi Wolf. We'll get to her in a second. But first, I do want to update you on inventory. Now, while I was in trial fighting this case that we fortunately won and won nicely, Altos Research also took a vacation. So our inventory stats are about 10 days behind, I think would be about the right number. And we'll have new ones for you soon. But inventory growth has ground to a halt. Okay. And the latest projection is going to really disappoint those of you who are waiting for a real estate crash. You're going to be disappointed. Now, take that with a grain of salt, because remember, there are three types of markets. Linear markets, cyclical markets, and hybrid markets. And those local markets are going to crash and have already been crashing to some extent. Okay. And, you know, crash, I don't know, maybe that's not the right word. What does that really mean? Nobody knows what it means, but there are a lot of reasons that inventory is stalling and the growth is not happening. I mean, look at this. The last time I reported to you, the inventory was about the same as it is now. And it's. It's two weeks later, and we're standing at about 551,000 homes for sale. Of course, that's half to one third of what is needed to be in a quote unquote, normal market, depending on who you ask. And so inventory is still very, very low. And the projection that Mike at Altos makes has actually declined in terms of inventory. So here's the new projection. He before was saying that we would end the year with over 600,000 homes for sale in the country, and now he's saying only 500,000. So that would mean inventory would go down from where it is today. Another 50,000 drop in inventory, decline in inventory. That's their projection to ending the year with about 500,000 homes. And one of the reasons he cites is one I cited years ago. I was the only person noticing this. Now everybody's noticed it, you know, But I'm going to claim credit for being there first. Even though during this terrible case and terrible time and depressing time I've been going through for the last four years, my ability to research for you and create content for you and, and my creative thinking about new ways to look at markets and economics and so forth and, and new ways to look at real estate has really been stunted. And, you know, I can't wait to. Now that my mental energy is freed up, I'm going to be able to put a lot more back in. You know, a lot of people say, jason, aren't you just going to retire? No interest? Okay, I could have retired 17 years ago when I sold my last company. I don't need to work. I just love doing this stuff and I love learning things and sharing the things I learn with you and then learning from you as well. So we'll keep working. And I think it's going to get a lot better now that this huge weight is off my shoulders. But I digress. Tangent alert, as we say. Anyway, the people waiting for this big real estate crash, you know, these sellers don't have any motivation to sell. This circles back to what I was saying a moment ago, and Mike at Altos notices it too. You know, look at, they've got super low interest rates on their mortgages. They're not under any huge pressure to sell. If they were to sell, they can't duplicate that mortgage asset. And the mortgage is an asset when it's a super low rate, when it's a negative interest rate mortgage, which is what everybody in the country virtually has now. I mean, there might be like a very small number of exceptions of people that don't have negative interest rate mortgages, but everybody's got a negative interest rate mortgage. So why would they sell their property? What would be the point? Like, there's no reason to sell, you know, yeah, maybe we'll go into some Big recession, there will be some job losses. Yeah, that'll peel off a few sellers for sure. But again, you know, these people, if they can keep those houses, because then they get to keep those mortgages that are now a huge asset to them, they're gonna keep them. You know, instead of selling, if they get into hard times, they'll rent them, they'll take on roommates, they'll take a second job, because they're going to want to protect that asset, they're going to want to keep that asset. And that asset is not the house as much as most people think it is. It's the actual mortgage. It's the financing of the house. And remember, about 40% of the houses in the country have no mortgage whatsoever. About 25% of them have mortgage rates locked in for three decades below 3%. What would possibly be their big urgency to sell their home? This is one of the huge reasons that you're just not going to see this big increase in inventory and subsequent market collapse or market crash. I don't know. Look, If World War 3 starts, if another pandemic comes along, if Putin uses a nuke, yeah, things could change. Sure, there's always a wild card out there. There's always a black swan. But if we continue on the track, we're continuing on now, I just don't see how there is going to be some big real estate crash. If you're watching this on YouTube, please comment below. That's one of the things I love about the video component. If you're watching this on video, rather than just listening on the podcast, comment. If you're listening on the podcast, go to YouTube. Make comments. We read them. We love to get your feedback. If you think I'm wrong, tell me why. If you think I'm right, tell me why. We'd love to hear from you. If none of that, go to jason hartman.com ask and you can leave a comment there. And without further ado, let's get to Naomi Wolf and let's talk about the stuff that, well, you can't talk about nowadays. Here we go.
