Housing Forecast for 2024 | Black Friday & Cyber Monday Sale

It is that time of year when the experts are out with their predictions on where the market is going to go. So let's take a look at that. All of them are positive except one, which is negative. Let's see what they say. So first of all, we've got Wells Fargo. And they say that the housing prices will appreciate by 2.5% next year. 2.5% increase in prices next year according to the economist at Wells Fargo. The Mortgage Bankers association, otherwise known as the mba, is a little less optimistic, but they do say things will be up. And they say things will be up by 1.1%. Fannie Mae. They are optimistic, but it's not great. It's a positive and it's better than the NBA and even higher than Wells Fargo at 2.8%. Their prediction that prices will increase next year by 2.8%, Zillow says they will increase by 3.3%. Now they are one of the more optimistic, but there's one more coming up that's even more optimistic than that. But first let's go to the downside and let's look at the scumbags at Goldman sucks. You can tell I don't like that company too much. So Goldman sucks. They are positive. They are bullish on the market, but only a little bit. They say there will be a small increase of 0.6% next year. Now remember, these are all markets, all geographies, all price ranges. This is the nationwide stuff. Includes linear, cyclical and hybrid markets. And that's why these predictions have to be sliced and diced, which we do for you and we've done for you on many prior episodes. But again, these are just the overall national numbers. Now the only bearish prediction in here comes from the group who was found to be wrongly stating the mortgage backed securities values. They had a whole big scandal during the Great Recession. But that is Moody's analytics and we covered that story many years ago for you. They say that prices will decline next year by 4.4%. Certainly not a crash, but nonetheless a negative overall appreciation. Now remember, even when prices decline, that doesn't necessarily matter because we get our return in so many ways. Income, cash flow, inflation induced debt destruction, mortgage pay down by our tenants, tax benefits, et cetera, et cetera. Right, Leverage. But again, these are just one of many of the multiple dimensions of an income property investment. And Moody says the prices will decline slightly by 4.4. Now, the most optimistic prediction comes from the folks we've had on the show several times. We've had Zillow economists, Fannie Mae economists, mba, all on the show before. We've had Wells Fargo people on the show and Moody's. By the way, a long time ago we had some Moody's people on the show, but the aei, the American Enterprise Institute, their housing center says that prices will increase by 7%. Now that's more than the historical average, which, you know, it depends who you ask and what time period you look at. And there are different ways of calculating all this stuff. But you know, generally speaking, people say that housing prices increase by about 6% annually, right? A little better than the CPI. But again, you can analyze and agonize over that number too. But suffice it to say that the aei, the American Enterprise Institute, says that prices will be up 7% next year. Now, I just want you to think about that for a moment and I'm going to use a simplistic example. You know, most people, if they're investing and buying a rental Property, they're putting 20% down. And remember, with leverage, right? Let's just take a 10% example first because it's simpler. All you do is move the decimal point or add a zero, right? So if you consider nothing else, say the property is a breakeven property, it produces no positive cash flow and there's no mortgage pay down. Say you had an interest only loan on the property, which is very unlikely, but say you do and you just break even. No positive cash flow at all. Not even, you know, 20 bucks a month, positive cash flow, nothing, zero. It's just a complete break even. Say you had no tax benefits, say you had no inflation induced debt destruction, right? None of these multidimensional characteristics of an income property, but you simply had appreciation, right? And you had 10% equity in the property. Now that could be as a result of the first year you put 10% down, or it could be that somehow you just had 10% equity in the property. And at the time this happened. Let's go with the AI prediction of 7% increase with 90% leverage, that 7% becomes 70% with no other aspects. With no positive cash flow, no inflation induced debt destruction, no tax benefits, no mortgage pay down of your principal on the mortgage, right? Just on leverage and appreciation alone. Only one mention, you have a 70% return on investment. Simplistically now if you put 20% down, you have to cut that in half because you have less leverage. So now you have a 35% half of 70. 35%. A 35% return on investment. Wow. This is why Income property is the most historically proven asset class in the entire world. It is absolutely unmatched because it has special multi dimensional characteristics that other assets don't have. So think about that, right? Even if some of the lesser predictions are accurate or even if the only, only one, the only one bearish prediction, Moody's analytics, if their prediction is right and prices actually decline slightly, you have all those other dimensions from which you earn your return on investment. See the myopic people that don't get it, that don't know how to do math, that don't take the time to understand the incredible power of this asset class, they miss the boat constantly because they don't understand the multi dimensional aspect. They also don't understand supply and demand, which we've been going over, you know, again and again. We know that there's a massive inventory shortage. We know, we know that there's massive demand. We know that millennials and now gen zers moving right into their prime household formation years, increasing demand for housing. So there are your predictions from the experts for the upcoming year. We will see what happens and we will continue to monitor it. Black Friday was a big deal this year, folks. We just had Black Friday and shoppers spent a record $9.8 billion billion dollars online. That was only online. That is up 7 1/2% year over year. Now you keep hearing the news that the consumer is tapped out, that credit card debt is increasing and well, those stats may be true. There is a whole other segment of the population that has loads of money, right, that has very cheap mortgages and a lot of extra income. In fact, some of the historically highest amount of extra income, disposable income as we like to call it, and I've shown you the charts on that. We just released one of our email newsletters that had those charts in them. We have about 135 million people in this situation in this country that got those super cheap mortgages. They're locked in. They've got 28 years left on those mortgages and they're super comfortable. They've got lots of spending money and they are spending and the consumer is out there buying, buying, buying. And by popular request, we have a Black Friday and Cyber Monday promotion. It expires tomorrow. So act on this quickly. And all you have to do, we have two things on a big sale. Number one is our lease options, live coaching. That's six weeks of live coaching and training and six months of ongoing email support. After this coaching is done, we do it all via Zoom. And you can go to FireYourManagers.com, use the promo code or coupon code Friday, and all you have to do is type in Friday. You'll get 20% off of that. And this is a phenomenal way to get huge deposits to basically eliminate management hassles and to fire your property managers. And save all that money that you would spend on a property manager and eliminate repair hassles. Get the tenant to take care of the maintenance for you. Get giant, giant deposits on these properties. Okay? Much bigger than you're used to. You know, first and last month's rent. Right. And one month security deposit. Much bigger deposits than that. This is an absolutely fantastic thing. We've got our Empowered Investor guides teaching that course. But I'm there with you, and we're all happy to answer questions in our small group zoom Sessions. Go to FireYourManagers.com, use the promo code Friday. Get a 20% discount. By the way, managers is plural, because we want you to fire all of them. Fireyourmanagers.com now, the second promotion is our cruise. And let me put on my captain's hat here. Okay? So we have our upcoming Empowered Investor cruise, and we've got a promotion on that as well, where you can get 20% off. You need to go to Empowered Investor Live and request your invitation for the cruise. It's in April. It's on the beautiful new celebrity Apex. These ships are phenomenal. When I was in Europe, I was on the sister ship to this, the Celebrity Edge. Wow, what a cruise ship. I've been on about 20 cruises, and that was the most gorgeous cruise ship I've ever been on. I Absolutely stunning. I love celebrity cruises. So join us for this one. It's five nights, six days. Go to empoweredinvestorlive.com, request your invitation, and you will. Then, if you're invited to the Cruise, get the 20% off. If you do that right away.