Finding Crypto's Next Big Trade | 1000x Live

like we talked about on this podcast, now is the time for active trading. Like, Trump's won. They're going to be— they're going to be some 100x out there, maybe even some 1,000x. They're probably going to happen in, in the memes.

This is a time to be staring at Twitter, staring at charts, literally just looking at what levels are being broken, and you just boom, you're just in.

Buy breakouts, buy breakouts, and buy new memes.

And we're live. Welcome to another 1000x podcast with me and my man Jonah. Market's looking good today, above $90,000 per Bitcoin. Doge is above 40 cents per Doge. XRP is above $1. Per XRP. Everything's looking good except— seems— except ETH. Except ETH is just such a, such a little shit asset, man. I was, you know, I, I, I— was it the last pod that I said— no, I can't remember if it was the last part of the pod before that that I was bullish on ETH. I think it was the last. Whenever, whenever ETH was trading 0.35, it was really bullish, and then we ran up to 0.41. And, you know, we got, we got that like 15, you know, I think I talked about a 10-15% move that I was willing to sell between 0.4 and 0.45, but then ETH just didn't have any juice to it, like zero juice, and it just went straight back down, which reminds me that maybe like maybe this is it, maybe ETH really is the XRP of the cycle.

You know, that line, that ETH is the XRP of this cycle line, that was what finally spooked me. And at the last possible moment, I flipped my ETH into Solana. I'm very thankful that I chatted with you about this. I mean, ETH is such a flaming pile of elephant dung. Like, I can't even believe how it's underperforming. And like, it was supposed to perform— it was supposed to be the Trump trade. It was supposed to perform on kind of this idea that— this narrative that, you know, Trump is going to enable institutions to build crypto-centric blockchain applications, replace back office with, you know, tokenized finance and instant value transfer, and all of that was going to occur on ETH because they'd had, you know, all these years to basically get set up on ETH, the world's first stable smart contract platform. And somehow Solana just took off and instead. And I guess, I guess it kind of makes sense. I mean, right now, right now, like, I think ETH will have its time, but I think that it's going to happen slowly. Like, I don't think you have to get ahead of it or worry about front-running it. Like, I think it'll just be a sort of steady, slow accumulation of institutional interest that gradually accretes value, hopefully to the ETH layer 1, or maybe, maybe it all goes to Coinbase and Base over time.

I think the major, the major issue is, Jonah, it's it was kind of now or never, in my personal opinion. And the reason that it was now or never is specifically because every day that goes by, we're closer to more access to crypto for more people. Yeah, right. And ETH has benefited for a really long time from the fact that it's very easily accessible, very easy to buy, and that was its moat. And it's gone now. That moat's— that moat's gone. So, but I mean, I feel like we've, we've sort of hit this point over and over on the head. Uh, you know, there have been a lot of other things that have actually performed really well and that have, instead of the pump— I mean, and one thing that tells you about the, the difference in this market versus how the market's been trading for the last year is there was, there's the pump to the top of a lot of different ranges, and now there's been a breakout. I mean, you look, you look across the board, Solana broke out to new all-time highs. XRP, great example of this. We talked about this last time. We broke above a prior trading range, and instead of getting smacked down, it promptly pulled a 50% move, which was insane. And there have been a lot of opportunities to, to sort of try to catch these, catch these moves as assets break out of the top of the range, and then they move. I mean, BNB is another one that hasn't really moved yet. Um, broke out above that $600 level, now trading $616. Um, I think it follows the same pattern as everything else. I mean, long BNB, short ETH, probably a good trade over the next, over the next week. Uh, you see things like, uh, Pepe that have done it. Bonk, Bonk's great, another great example of this.

Short ETH is a good— I mean, I mean, yeah, we have to talk about, we have to be a little clear here, like everything's breaking out right now, so In a market like this, do you just buy everything? No, you have to pick winners. And like, I don't know, I think it's pretty hard to beat— I think the barbell trade is back, right? Like, I think you're in Bitcoin, you're in Solana, maybe you forget about ETH for a while. And then, you know, like we talked about on this podcast, now is the time for active trading. Like, Trump's won, they're going to be— they're going to be some 100x out there, maybe even some 1,000x. They're probably going to happen in, in the memes.

Uh, just don't— I guess, I guess the way that I phrases is just don't be too scared. Like, don't, don't, don't, don't be too scared to be invested in the market. And we've been talking about this. Bitcoin looks— Bitcoin looks strong. You know, I wouldn't— you know, I wouldn't necessarily buy the things that have 5x'd, but for an active trader, I mean, a lot of charts sort of look like this. You had a long accumulation zone, you start to break out of that accumulation zone, right? And then that's when you buy. That's a really good opportunity to go buy as long as you're early and as long as there's some level of narrative behind it. I mean, this is, this is a time to be staring at Twitter, staring at charts, like literally just looking at what levels are being broken, and you just boom, you're just in.

Buy breakouts, buy breakouts, and buy new memes. Um, I think that's So you have some dry powder loaded up in your Phantom wallet. You've got some tokens on exchange. You're not just like sitting on all of it in a cold wallet with no dry powder ready to trade. You can probably feel okay about mild leverage if you're trading, if you're buying Bitcoin. I don't know about any of these other tokens though. I certainly wouldn't mess with alts with leverage. That seems crazy. Also, the funding rates are kind of out of control.

Again, I mean, alts themselves are just leverage, right? Like, that, that, that is leverage. Um, so I mean, this is, this is, this is a great time to just fire up, you know, go, go, go to CoinGecko, go asset by asset, check chart by chart, look for breakouts, look for narratives, and then just bet. And once, once it hits, once you get that 30-40%, then you can rotate into something, into something else, you know, take, take that profit Uh, put it—

not fiat though, not stablecoins, not fiat.

You know, roll it back into BTC. I mean, this is a great— this is a great trading environment.

Um, is that why you have the, um— is that why you look like you're in prison? Is this like a locked-in Avi?

It's monk mode. Well, you're gonna— Jonah, what are you gonna do? Oh, look at that, look at that hair, Jonah. Look at your hair.

You wake up, it's like you did a hair transfer.

'Oh, I have to brush it. Oh, I have to wash it. Oh.' Like, no, just cut it all off. Stop focusing on your hair. You don't need hair in this new world, in this new paradigm. It's unnecessary to have hair.

You know, it's funny, ever since my hair transplant, I've been so thankful for hair. It's just I've got tons of it now. Before, I didn't have enough, and now that I've got it, I want to flaunt it. And yeah, I got to wash it. I don't know how much showering you're doing lately. It sounds like not very much. But I guess that everybody's got their own style.

I think I trade pretty good.

I trade better with more hair. Maybe you trade better with less hair.

I think it's just about minimizing distractions.

Yeah, fair enough.

Right? You're like, "Oh man, my hair is in my face today. Oh, I got to go to— Oh, I'm going to dinner. I got to look good. Make my hair look good for dinner. Shut up." Shave it off.

Shave it off.

Like, what are you doing?

Sit in your basement and trade crypto. Excommunicate friends, relatives.

This is—

it's about— it's about the coins right now.

I mean, this is— this is purely about the coins. When do we sell about anything else?

When do we sell Doge? Doge is radioactive. It's too— it's just ripped too much to buy. And if you're holding it, you don't know whether you're in the third inning or the eighth inning of some kind of insane rally.

Yeah, I mean, I'm, I'm still a Doge bull personally. I think that— I just think that memes have, have a, have a way to go. I also think the White House— I don't think you understand, like, Doge is about to enter into a 4-year or 2-year until— I think Trump said that there's a 2-year period that he's giving Elon and Vivek to run 2026 Doge. July 4th, 2026. We're entering a 2-year period where there's just going to be a ton of media attention on Doge. Constantly. And if you think that Elon Musk is going to literally set up a government agency called Doge and then never do anything for the next 2 years to talk about pumping the price of Doge, you're delusional.

About it every day.

Like, I agree, this man loves Doge.

Meme culture is, is mainstream now, though, and Doge is the meme. It is I feel so stupid talking about this because my trad fi background tells me that this is like not valid analysis or not a valid way to think about it. But honestly, fuck all of that. Like, this is— we have entered a world where the world's most important person and the President of the United States are going to be talking about Doge all the time. There's like— it's hard to put a value on that. The only thing that I would say is like, for people just who are on the sidelines with respect to Doge, and I would largely consider myself to be one of those people. I don't know if you rip a sizable amount of fiat into Doge at current prices. I think that a rally this parabolic should come with some volatility. I think you should probably— like, we will probably have a chance to buy lower Doge.

I think you did. It's up 10% today. I mean, you know, I I don't necessarily believe right now. I'm in the, I'm in the mindset of until I see a crazy blow-off, there's no reason to just not— there's no reason to not be long things. And what that means is that there's going to be tailwinds to Doge, right? Because yeah, as long as big— as long as BTC remains above $90K, there's ample cash in the system to pump the market. If we trade below, trade below $85, then you probably see a huge unwind. But no, I think, I think right now, I mean, this is just, this is just like what we've been talking about, reasonably bullish. We'll, we'll watch for the blow-off and then, you know, sort of bet on what happens there. I mean, my view is that this market, what will probably happen is you get some sort of blow-off on BTC then you range on BTC for a while. That's distribution. That's, you know, that, that's, you know, the last-ditch people will come in, start buying. You'll get— and then you'll get the people selling into it. And so what this probably looks like is it looks similar to a 2021 where it's not necessarily an insta-top. It's a blow-off, come down, go back up to the highs, trade a little bit, and then come, come back down.

And yeah, let's talk about '21. That's what I'm talking about. I mean, I'm not necessarily worried about it, but it's hard to ignore that the last white-hot pico bull market, in the middle of it, BTC, I guess May it hit 69K Bitcoin and then it traded down to what, 40, 45?

I don't know. Yeah, it traded down to 30, and that in large part was due to Tesla selling Chinese the, the China market banning miners and all that stuff and all that, all that FUD. I mean, the issue is that right now the only major head, you know, headwind to risk is firmly geopolitical and basically just Russia. And it's right, it's Russia's fight with Ukraine. You know, it spooked the markets a little bit overnight when futures sold off, but then, then we recovered. There aren't that many. I mean, you know, what I would say right now is, you know, think of the market as like this herbivore in the savanna. All the predators are asleep, right? And the only one with, you know, one eye open is Russia. And I don't necessarily believe that there's going to be a bad outcome in that war. I mean, we basically have 2 months, 3 months until Trump comes in, and I think he does a good job shutting it down. The predator that we had before, the talk of recession, quote unquote, you know, all the economists were calling for, calling for a recession. The economy's strong, and what's going to happen in this administration is it's going to continuously make the economy stronger by cutting regulations, by increasing investment, uh, the—

and by dollar debasement.

And by dollar debasement, the only thing in my, you know, opinion that could lead to potentially some drawback in the market is that if Elon and Vivek and Trump are overly aggressive about cutting government spending, then you get, you know, then, then you're actually pulling money out of the system.

Yeah, but like, if a bunch of unemployment in the DC area— that, like, the government employs a lot of people. If they go crazy, it'd be bad. I mean, honestly though, like, the Tesla selling Bitcoin in 2021 and the China banning mining thing, like, that wasn't in anybody's bingo card. So yes, they're, you know, they're predators that we know about, and they all seem like they're sleeping. Nothing seems too risky. I'm not worried about Russia either, by the way. I think— I don't think they're going to start World War III. During Biden's lame duck period. Um, ultimately I'm more worried about just random stuff. Like when, when you're thinking about like pumping more fiat into crypto, into tokens that are up 400%, 500%, 700%, like you have to worry about the predators that you've never thought about or heard of before. Like that animal on your shirt, right? That thing could maybe bite your balls off. Basically, my point here is, look, I'm as bullish as you are. I'm so freaking bullish. I'm just trying to brainstorm here on the podcast for everybody out there, trying to brainstorm ideas for why we might not be in the second or third inning of this current bull run and why we might be in more of like a May 2021 or April 2021 where there's about to be a huge pullback and you'd be pretty annoyed. If you didn't buy there, you know, on the pullback as opposed to on the highs. I, I can't really think of anything. Um, I, I don't— nothing identifiable is going to nuke this market. Uh, it's— if it were to be something, it would be absolutely out of left field, but that's already happened. So, you know, one of the guys in the chat just put up, uh, or, or ladies, we don't know, um, put up a very good question. Do you guys expect up only for the next more like 2017 or more like '21 with big correction? That is the question, right? We don't know. And so I think, yeah, we're at the phase where pretty much everybody and their mother is calling me and you asking like, "Hey, how do I get into crypto?" Or, "Hey, my Coinbase account that's been dormant for 4 years, I'm trying to wire money in and it's getting bounced. What other exchanges should I use?" You're getting those kinds of questions right now. So I think that's sort of like a third or a second inning type question. I do think that people are in the process of investing. I think that that's both at the retail level and at the institutional level. So I think this thing's going to run for another year or two. I've seen too many bull markets get volatile to the upside. Everything from NASDAQ 1999 to crude oil 2022 to just name your bull market in anything. It's never a straight line. So I guess the way I'm looking at something like Doge, where I feel personally kind of stupid for not being involved, even though I could have seen it coming a mile away and I was in active trading mode, I'm just wondering, like, do I put in the whole— do I blow my whole wad now, or do I wait? Like, maybe put in 25% here, you know, and then wait a little bit.

Yeah, I mean, look, it's all about your conviction level here, right? You have to assign some level of probability to your success. In, you know, and the two questions are, in 6— okay, in 6 months, where do you think Doge is going to be? And in that, in that time frame, you know, will you get a large enough pullback that'll make you, you know, that you'll, that you'll come in and you'll buy, right?

Yeah.

And the way that I tend to think about these things is, how do you feel when that price comes back down to your price point? If you get a massive correction in Doge at this point, is that even a buy, right? Like, are you gonna— are you gonna feel like that's a buy in that scenario, or are you gonna say, okay, Doge is just down 50%, that was a blow-off top, I'm not buying this thing, right? And so there's— there's this weird dynamic that goes through a lot of traders' heads where they go, well, I'm gonna wait for the pullback, I'm gonna wait for the right way to go buy this, to, to go, to go buy this, uh, asset. And then when the asset actually comes down to that price, okay, never mind, I don't want it anymore. And I think that's what happens with Doge. So, you know, at most you're going to get these 10-20% dips, but I think it's preordained, preordained to $1.

Yeah, I think, I think it's going to $1 too. I'm just wondering, like, do I buy it? I probably buy some now, but I think at this point Yeah, you bring up a really good point. I think it's going to $1 too, so may as well just get long. And obviously, I'm talking about money that I promised myself I wouldn't put into crypto, but I'm probably going to do it anyway because I'm so frigging bullish on my conviction.

I mean, look, but the other thing is like, look, I like Doge because you can put a lot of size into it. The thing that I'll say that probably actually has a higher hit rate in terms of alpha is We are now in the world where exchanges can basically list anything at any moment, and they're not going to be afraid of the SEC. So, what I would do if I were an active trader is build a basket. And I would look at all of the highest volume coins on-chain, the things that trade the most that aren't listed on exchanges, and then create a basket of those assets. And then watch as those assets 2x, 3x into Coinbase listings, into Binance listings, and the blah blah blah whatnot, right?

Peanut got it. I should say, time— like, it took WIF forever. I guess we're in— exchanges are emboldened now. It's a great point.

Yeah, I, I think, I think basically anything to do— I mean, we've talked about this, but anything to do with regulation is just such a good trade.

Um, we called XRP on the show. Yeah, that was a good trade.

Yeah, we— I mean, we called a lot of it. The one, the one area that's been really disappointing has been DeFi, and I think that's just a holdover of ETH.

Yeah, I mean, it's— I think what's weird about DeFi is that during DeFi summer, um, DeFi was the meme. It was like, okay, this is the narrative that gets people excited about crypto in the future. Now the meme is Peanut the squirrel. It's some AI crap. I'm starting to lose track of all these AI coins, but that's taken the wind out of the sails of even some of the legit systems like BitTensor. So memes are sort of sucking up all the energy and accreting value to Solana. DeFi, I think it's a slower burn. It will go up, but it's not going to get you rich in the short term. So yeah, I mean, To me, I think Doge is the meme. The rest of the memes on Solana are also interesting memes. That's kind of where I'm going to be focusing my active trading for the next, you know, month or so. I, I don't— and yeah, and some little regulatory trades. I like your— I like your idea of buying coins that are about to get listed.

And also, yeah, I mean, and like, there's pretty—

it's pretty easy real quick. Like, I'd feel happy buying Bitcoin on a pull pullback. Up until this point, I would never have felt comfortable buying a meme coin on a pullback because memes are just momentum trades and they're backed by nothing and they have no fundamentals. But now Doge, oddly enough, I think it's crossed the chasm and you can feel comfortable buying it on a dip, maybe for the first time. Sorry, what were you gonna say?

Um, yeah, I mean, it depends on— I think, I think again it depends on like how large of a dip. Because big dips really scare people. Small dips encourage people to get in, um, right? Like, if I close— if you close your eyes and you wake up in 3 weeks and Doge is down 70%, 60%, are you buying it there? 50%, are you buying it back there? I, I don't know. I don't know.

Because I think big green, uh, like weekly candle though from that down 60%.

But I mean, it's just, it's We are in a very good time to make a lot of money. And this extends to equities as well. I mean, I think we're in for a pretty good 4 years. Now, I do think that we're going to get an opportunity to buy a lot of things a lot cheaper post-Trump inauguration because generally that's what tends to happen is you get excitement baked in early. And then reality hits later. And then you actually get to experience the benefits of reality. So it overprices, then dumps and underprices, and then comes back to a good price. But I mean, these next 4 years are going to be good. I think it's very important to approach this market with a level head and to have a plan and to be tracking. I think this is one of the environments that really stand out to me as the easiest to get distracted by the new shiny object and have that ruin your ability to actually make money and get spread to— get spread too thin. I was talking on an earlier podcast about how you should have a list of every coin, every asset that you're in, and a plan— entry, exit, all of that, and that it's actually very easy to lose track of things, especially if you have like 10, 15 wallets. And I think back then people were like, what do you mean? Is— how is it easy to lose track of things? And we talk about a new coin every day now, and that's how you lose track of things. And so if you don't— if you aren't maintaining a spreadsheet or at least have some ability to track where you're putting your money and you're not— and you're not doing it diligently, like, you can really fuck yourself. And that you really have to avoid that. So just fire up Google Sheets and start tracking things.

And shave your head. Yeah, no, I agree. I mean, I get clowned on Twitter all the time for recommending that people consolidate line items. They say I sound like a broken record and that that's my only advice. But it's true. When you have a big messy portfolio, you feel smart on the way up. And then when things start coming off, You're— that's, that's where you really get tagged. But I kind of take your point about how we're gonna probably rally really quickly and then it gets volatile after that. And it sort of dovetails nicely with what our friend JT wrote in the chat. He wrote, what do you guys think about the market impact to iBit starting options trading today, both over short and long time frames? Are you planning to trade them? I think this is a great question because I think that IBIT options trading is going to increase that volatility to the upside that you just spoke of, Avi. And I don't know if many of our listeners are familiar with the phenomenon of gamma, but basically what happens— IBIT options trading is huge for crypto because up until now, if you want to trade crypto options, you have to go on an exchange like Deribit, or you have to be kind of an institutional player trading options on futures on the CME. Now, Neither of those are particularly liquid or interesting for most people, and there's not a lot of institutional size going through those two platforms. But iBit trading on the New York Stock Exchange, that's legit. That could attract massive, massive amounts of capital. And usually the way this works is as follows. When you have an exciting new asset that everybody's focused on, like in this case, iBit or Bitcoin, retail will buy massive amounts of call options in bull markets because everybody's getting that sort of animal spirit. Bull frenzy in their head. So they buy call options. It's called naked or unhedged. They just buy the option hoping that the market trades through their strike. Meanwhile, the dealers that sell those options, the market makers that sell those options to these retail players, they're not just going to be naked short a bunch of Bitcoin call options praying to their, whatever their deity is, that Bitcoin doesn't breach the strike. They're going to delta hedge. So they're going to buy some Bitcoin against it. And basically these dealers, when they're short options, they're short— it's called being short gamma, where they have to buy more delta on the way when Bitcoin goes up and sell more delta when Bitcoin goes down. So they're basically buying high and selling low, and in exchange for that, they, they collect the premium of the option they've sold. So basically, um, I expect— I fully expect, uh, market makers to be massively short Bitcoin gamma to the upside over the coming days and weeks. And I also expect Bitcoin to rally through a lot of these strikes. That's going to create some insane, insane price volatility, uh, that sort of dealer negative gamma hedging to the upside. I think it's going to get pretty, pretty wild.

Yeah, um, I, I do think that the— look, a lot of people buy Bitcoin through brokerages now, courtesy of IBIT. We're seeing the inflows ourselves. This is going to energize the WallStreetBets crowd because One of the big dings on Bitcoin is that you can't 5x your money on Bitcoin anymore. If you're an average person, right? It's like people don't think about it that way. They think it's too big. You buy short-dated options, you can 30x your money. Not advocating for that. I think basically everyone loses money buying short-dated stuff. You know, it's one of those things that's really going to energize the betting crowd. And that's how you get things like the GME, like the Bed Bath Beyond of the world. You get people buying like crazy options on them. It's going to increase volumes. It's going to increase spot volumes, future volumes, everything. And what I'll say is that it's fuel on the fire. And if this had happened at $50K per Bitcoin, I don't think it would have mattered much. But the fact that it's happened specifically because, or at a time where Bitcoin is going up a lot, that's really good. That's when it really adds fuel to the fire, which is why I'm still bullish on BTC.

I think you could 5x your money on Bitcoin. I don't think that's unreasonable. I mean, it won't happen in the next few months or maybe even the next year or two, but I think you know, before the end of the decade. I like, if I were—

okay, but I mean, 5x, 5x, 5x in your money over the course of a decade. This, Jonah, this is about your short-term gamblers that are going to reallocate, that are going to be able to reallocate and help out Bitcoin price because they're coming in and they're just spamming, spamming options. I mean, at some point, and this is actually a really good thing that you should watch out for, Whenever you get those gamma squeezes, which do happen, you have to look at vol. And if vol spikes above 100, that's almost always an amazing sell. Like, selling BTC vol above 100 is like an A-minus sell. Selling it above 130 is like an A-plus sell historically. And that's, I mean, if you're a more sophisticated trader, you know, and this doesn't mean outright sell, this means do like sell, like get negative vega on your portfolio. It doesn't mean like sell calls because you can, it can still go up, but vol tends to go down. So right, like you just sell straddles. So those are genuinely really good. Like really good trades.

Yeah, danger. We're all— we're talking about like interesting leveraged bets. But I think, I think what's so exciting about this, Avi, is the idea that, you know, let's say that I'm right. Let's say that Bitcoin is going to 5x between now and 2030, or even between now and 2028 when the Trump administration is wrapping up, right? That's a nice baseline for some good volatility trades, which are ultimately like kind of leveraged ways to express your ideas in crypto. And it's so much more fun to trade options in a market that is trending, even if the trend is super volatile. It's way more fun to trade options in a market that's trending than to trade options in a market that's just chopping up and down, doing little to nothing. So I think we're going to see— basically, this reminds me of when Tesla stock got really popular and people started in the options market. It was like one of the most active stock option markets. Like, I think the capital inflows into IBIT are going to be insane. I have to figure out a way to track it because it's basically a new form of leverage. We're going to have to like see what the strikes are and what retail is buying. I would be willing to bet that retail comes out buying size amounts of $100,000 calls and that volatility and that spikes volatility and that will also translate into Bitcoin volatility, Bitcoin option volatility that you see on Deribit. Because ultimately the two are interrelated markets and you'll have options market-making desks that arbitrage iBit options versus Bitcoin options. It's a really exciting development for the space. And it's not like— so I personally would I'm going to have to start tracking that. Options trading is something that I like to do in oil as well. I'm going to start monitoring all of that and finding interesting ways to sell calls against my Bitcoin length if it gets too overheated, which can happen sometimes. Still though, how long before we get Solana options, before all this stuff's mainstream? We have a guy in the chat asking, if you were to deploy $100K at this stage, This is like the kind of calls I'm getting from my friends who have been basically sidelined for 3 to 4 years. If you were to deploy $100K at this stage, how would you allocate across presumably Bitcoin, Solana, SUI, DOGE, GOAT, any others? Avi, what advice would you give to somebody who's just getting into crypto right now?

Well, I probably wouldn't buy any SUI. But I would buy, I would buy SOL, DOGE, GOAT. I mean, basically the way that I would do it is I'd, for somebody to just set and forget, I'd still allocate 50% to BTC and then 50, probably 25% to DOGE. And then the rest of it is just like GOAT, Peanut, like memes that I think have staying power, Bonk, WIF, MOG.

You didn't mention Solana.

Popcat, are you— I just, I just— yeah, I just don't think that Solana needs to be there. I mean, if Solana, if Solana 2Xs, all of these memes are 100Xing. Yeah, right. So I just don't— right, it just doesn't make sense. And so if Solana goes down 80%, the memes go down 85%. There's no protection. Right, Solana down 50, memes down 70.

I don't think Solana is going down 85%. I think that if Solana goes down 30%, the memes are down 90%. Actually, that's not true. If Solana goes—

I mean, some of them, some of them, some of them outperformed. Some of them actually outperformed when Solana went, went down, right? Because they have a much smaller holder base that hilariously is longer term than—

yeah, you're right.

I think I'm gonna rotate.

I've had a good run on Solana recently. Maybe it's time to start rotating that into Doge and adding to my little meme portfolio, which is probably too small.

Almost definitely too small. I mean, you have to— you always have to think of things in terms of risk-reward, right? Um, you know, with Solana, it's 500 $500, you know, $500 is pretty massive move. That's a 2x from here. It could easily go down, you know, in a world where Solana goes down 50%, then let's say memes go down 75% versus Solana's at $500, the meme's 5x, right? There's more— you, you have to always look for asymmetry. Like, where is the optimal asymmetry in this crypto, in, in this crypto world, but what will allow me to stay alive if we do get those drawbacks, right? And that's why having a little bit of, you know, have it— having a little bit of BTC is always useful because BTC sneezes down 10-15%, that's when things in this particular environment tend to collapse, and you can take some of your Bitcoin and buy the rest of it if you're still, if you're still bullish on the market at that point, right? So it's about, it's, it's really, it's really about that. And then it's about once, once you do that, are you able to capture those 30, 40, 50% bounces, right? And that, and then you rotate that back into BTC, and then you do that a few times and you radically outperform.

Um, meme trading requires, to, to the point you just made, it requires such an insane level of attention and focus, like, it's pretty much a full-time job. Like, you have to be locked in. You can't just be sitting on your memes, set it and forget it, and hope for the best. So that's kind of like— because I just— my happy zone is slightly less active trading. That's why I tend to be in more of the picks and shovels plays like BTC and Solana rather than like actively flipping my way around the meme space, which is just this, the most awesome casino slash minefield of all time. Yeah, I think it's time to be locked in though. Like you said, I should probably just shave my head.

And I mean, like, the thing is, you got—

Jack myself to this, like, why not?

It's just completely and utterly nuts because like every second there's a new meme coin of the week, meme coin of like Okay, uh, Bongo is the most recent one. People are talking about Bongo is the, you know, successor to— I don't know any of this thing, but, you know, Bongo is a successor to PopCat, same origin story as, as PopCat, uh, and, you know, fuck is Bongo? Exactly.

And like, what are we even podcasting about, dude?

It seems, it seems like a lot of the big guys are in this thing. I still haven't bought. If you guys buy, that's on you. But it's, it's crazy, right? And it's up 35%. So I think it's at $100 mil market cap. People are saying, all right, run it, run it, run it to $500 mil now. Maybe it does. I got pinged about something called— these are all from like, like pretty reasonable and respectable people. Right? These are not like nonsense humans. Um, somebody messaged me. I mean, this is like a text that I got today. Zing, the one-armed monkey, probably a buy. What?

Yeah, a lot of the respectable chats that I'm in are all over these memes, and some of them, you know, some of the Telegram rooms that I've been have called some of these memes pretty early.

I have not. I have not. Again, I have not bought any of this.

Um, yeah, I mean, I, I, I really took a swing at was Peanut, and obviously I didn't do enough of it. I like the political memes, but never gotten the dog memes, but I'm ready for Doge because it's become a political meme and it's crossed that chasm. The thing is though, like, I just, I'm too, I'm too old, I'm too tradfi educated to, to really get behind a lot of this crap. And I can't tell whether the fact that, like, hasn't the drumbeat of this just gone crazy? Like When did Pepe launch? It was like, it was last year, wasn't it? And then there was like 6 months of nothing. And then a couple of like, like the, the WIFs and the Bodens and the Solana meme coin shit show started. And then, you know, that, then it was kind of silent for a while. And now it feels like the drumbeat has just exponentially accelerated. And I don't know whether this is something to like really lean into. Or whether it's like, you know, frankly a little bit too much and maybe a sign to like take, take it easy for a while and just stick, stick with Doge and Peanut and a couple of the other main ones. I did like— I mean, I'm in unfamiliar territory. That's not to say I'm, I'm unexposed. I'm freaking exposed, and I don't know how to feel about it. I'm just kind of like having this debate with you out loud because I've never been through one of these, one of these cycles where A lot of the stuff that's in my portfolio, I don't have a ton of conviction in other than that I feel it's just a right place, right time kind of trade. I don't know how long the time is going to last. Yeah, it's just like play, just sit on it till the music stops and then be, be disciplined about getting out when it starts to go down.

What is your— tell me What does your daily routine look like when it comes to assessing crypto? Like, how do you look at this? Like, where do you get your information from? How do you track your portfolio? Maybe that'll be helpful for these people.

Yeah, sure. I mean, the way that I— like, I watch crypto prices and monitor crypto news and all market news all day, every single day. A little bit less on weekends. But basically the way that I track my crypto prices and portfolio, I just have it all pulled into a Google spreadsheet so that I can see my dynamic portfolio allocation, P&L. I basically have it sliced. I've published a tweet thread about this and just sort of like how you're supposed to allocate globally, however much money you have, how you're supposed to allocate between asset classes, how you're supposed to allocate within asset classes. Within crypto, I break down my risk into basically like Bitcoin, other majors, alts, and memes. And those are my 4 categories. And I sort of have portfolio targets and then I watch— I have like a thing on the side that tells me what trades to do as my portfolio evolves and I end up sort of like drifting away from my targets. In terms of memes, I'm overallocated. Versus my sort of like the, the target that I set for myself before this insane meme run-up. Um, and the way that I digest news and learn about new memes, learn about new crypto, uh, sort of applications and tokens and launches— I learn a lot from this podcast, just talking to you. I learn a lot from our Niger Delta Avengers Telegram room. I learn a lot, you know, people post interesting ideas in there. It's not really like shills, it's more just, uh what people talking about, what they're looking at. I have a bunch of other Telegram rooms with, you know, people that I've met in the industry who are putting interesting stuff out there. You know, obviously one-on-one conversations with people. I'm not ADHD enough or focused enough to be in Discord. I know you may be. I know our friend Chief spends a lot of time on Discord. That's real alpha in there. That's like basically the where the nutrients in the soil enter the roots of the tree is Discord. And then like, I'm kind of like somewhere in the middle of the trunk where I get my info. Basically, that's kind of my process along with just dialogues with people in the market, of which this particular podcast is my favorite dialogue. And I'm super disciplined about reallocating within my portfolio when I get way away from my target. But now, you know, as you can tell, like, from just this conversation, I've got a little bit of hesitation about whether I should be dialing up memes and Doge in particular. And, you know, these are the types of conversations that people probably have all the time in their minds. But, you know, maybe it's helpful to have this one out loud, uh, because, you know, no, I'm not max confident all the time in what I'm doing, even when, even when things are ostensibly going well and I'm making a bunch of money on crypto.

Yeah, that's, I mean, look, for somebody that's part-time, the reason I asked you is because you're also part-time, right? Like relative. I mean, I do that, I do this as my day job. I think most people don't do it as, don't do it as their day job. So I think balancing that is really, is really important. And so I just wanted to, just wanted to hear that out. Somebody said, where should people go to get the best info? Well, I think you have to curate your Twitter lists really effectively. I really like the Blockworks daily newsletter. I think that's great. I actually think that newsletters are actually pretty solid for getting information, especially for the more casual person that just can't spend all of their time on X. And then what I like to do is I just like to look at DEX Screener. And look at the top movers under, under certain market cap levels, and then just look them up, see, see what, see what people, see what people are saying about them, and then see if I can find, find anything interesting. Um, I have noticed like this, uh, you know, this particular environment, things react to news and narratives really, really, really well. And so if you can find that news or narrative and then bet on it and then just wait until it, until it percolates, that has tended to be really good. I mean, the XRP trade, great example of this.

Yeah, I agree. Um, that was a good call. I'm proud of that one. That was yet another call on the 1000x Podcast that turned out to be prescient. Um, I think, I think at this phase, like, you know, obviously I'm a part-time crypto trader. I'm not full-time like you. Um, but I am a full-time markets guy, so, you know, crypto is just part of my daily markets digest. If I were like, let's say I were like a software developer or working some job that required like a lot of focus and time that you can't look at markets in the middle of the day, which isn't something I'm familiar with, I would say probably the best way to do it— like, you don't need to trade all the time to make money. And the active trading that we're talking about, even you, Avi, you're not like just clicking maniacally all day every day. Like, you take breaks too. I I think the best way to do it is just to maintain some discipline around your portfolio allocation and then pick a rebalancing cadence. It can be like whenever you get X% away from your targets, you just trade and you look at it once a day. I think that's probably enough. You don't need to be like all over it, overtrading. Overtrading is still a risk. You pay a lot of bid-offer to trade some of these crazy memes on. Jupiter or whatever. It's not, it's not free to trade. Can't just do it all the time.

Yeah, I think that's fair. Uh, well, let's see, let's see what happens, Jonah. Um, I think next, next pod we'll do again on Tuesday. And let's, uh, let's come, let's come with some ideas for the, for the guys out there. We're gonna come with some trade ideas. Maybe I'll come back to Twitter and start tweeting more.

Yeah, that'd be nice. Everyone wants you back on Twitter. I'm gonna go buy some— buy some more Doge. That'd be a good idea. Don't have enough of that.

Well, sounds good to me.

All right, Jonah, none of this is investment advice. Pleasure talking to you. For everybody listening, uh, we're just a couple of guys talking about coins named after dogs and squirrels. Please don't take this as investment advice, please. Please. Um, till next time.