Hivemind: Record Liquidations, Auto-Deleveraging, & Biggest Post-Crash Winners & Losers

I got the big alert that your account has been liquidated, which, which wasn't super fun. And I kind of just sat there at my, my computer and just looked at the screen. And I just sat there for a few minutes. I was like, what just happened? And like, even over the weekend, I really wish, you know, you can screen record your computer. I would have loved to like go back and just like rewatch that because it really will be like, like go down in the history books, especially for us degens. Because I mean, that was— I mean, COVID crash was big, but this was something I'd never experienced.

Nothing said on The Hive Mind is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is strictly for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are solely our own opinions, not financial advice. Hi everyone and welcome to another episode of the Hive Mind podcast. The goal of the podcast is to provide an inside look into what we like to call the Delphi Hive Mind, bringing together some of our brightest minds from each of the divisions to share insights, alpha, and shitposts. Today with us we have Ceteris Paribus, who heads up our institutional research arm. We have Jason Yanowitz, also known as 3xLiquidated, who's the head of macro at Delphi Research and a regular guest on the Hive Mind. And for the first time, we have Flip, who is an associate at Delphi Research and kind of our PerpDEX expert, who is up all weekend writing a post on what happened after the craziness on Friday. So excited to talk through this with you all. And I'm Jose. I lead Delphi Labs, which is our protocol R&D and incubation arm. So this was a pretty wild Friday night. I tweeted that I think it's like the craziest conditions I've ever experienced in crypto, like crazier than COVID, crazier than Luna, crazier than FTX. The damage was pretty extensive. There was $20 billion in liquidations, and that number is probably underreported, right? Because Hyperliquid alone, I think, was $10 billion in liquidations, and Hyperliquid's like a quarter or so of Binance's OI. If you assume that those APIs were reported properly, maybe we're talking like $50 billion plus in liquidations. There was like 1.6 million traders liquidated. Insane levels of volatility, like there was coins dropping 80% in seconds. There was like gas spikes on Ethereum. ETH, I think gas hit $1,000. Binance was down for nearly an hour. Lido was down for 5 hours. Hyperliquid had a lot of uptime, but obviously they triggered ADL. I think after the crash, open interest declined by over 60% when I checked. Like, and obviously it's USD-denominated, so, you know, it, it doesn't account— it accounts for the price drops too, then the sort of notional price drops, but still it dropped by nearly 50% on Binance alone, which is just, just wild. Um, And so there's a lot of theories about what happened, um, a lot of great threads on Twitter, a lot of people digging into it. I think we're gonna— we want to discuss that today. But to start with, maybe we can go around the horn and ask, like, how did you guys experience this? Like, how did you— was it— did you get hurt?

Was it—

was it painful? And also then, like, what do you think happened? And maybe we can start with, uh, with you, Flip, since I think you're probably deepest in the weeds on this.

Yeah, it was, it was, uh, it was tough. Like, I— my per— my per, uh, portfolio was, was unfortunately liquidated, and I was— I think I was net 1.7x long. Um, thankfully it wasn't a huge percentage of my portfolio, but it was, it was quite, you know— I was sitting there and I just gotten off the phone with my wife, and I'm, I'm just watching things tank, and I'm just sitting there, and I've, I've got like a sizable long on Pingu, and then I've got a sizable short on, on Zora. And I really, I really thought they were gonna be a little bit more delta neutral, um, but the— just because the size of the Pingu position, it just— like, I was, I was starting to rush to like put more dollars into my perp account to keep myself from getting liquidated because I could see like the red line on Paradex. I could see it just like keep inching down a little bit because that first Zora was falling faster. And then it just, it didn't quite happen. And, you know, I got the big alert that your account has been liquidated, which, which wasn't super fun. And I kind of just sat there at my, my computer and just looked at the screen. And I just sat there for a few minutes. I was like, what just happened? And like, even over the weekend, I really wish, you know, you can screen record your computer. I would have loved to like go back and just like rewatch that because it really will be like, like go down in the history books. Especially for us degens, because I mean, that was— I mean, COVID crash was big, but this was something I'd never experienced and very different than Terra Luna also, um, because, because it was crazy. These altcoins, I remember looking at TradingView and I had all my alts pulled up on the right and a lot of them were 70 to 90% down and I thought they were, you know, somewhat decent altcoins and the liquidity just disappeared, uh, bid-ask spreads were massive. You couldn't get filled. I had friends who were trying to bid, you know, had stink bids in that, you know, most of them didn't get filled because there was no liquidity, or their, their actual like price that they got in was, you know, 5-10% different than where their limit was. So it was, it was quite, quite crazy. And I feel, I feel really bad for the, uh, the people who are running delta neutral. Um, you know, their long was on, on LIDR, for instance, and their short was on on Hyperliquid and then ultimately got ADL'd. I think that's really tough to see because it, you know, they wake up that morning, they see the big crash like, oh crap, my, my long probably got stopped out or liquidated, you know, it's whatever. But then they show up and, uh, on their, their longs and there's— or the shorts— and they're just like, wow, I just, I just got screwed. Um, so that's really hard to see. So I'm excited to see how different teams go about, uh, playing with their aggressiveness of ADL and other things that they might introduce. Because it's happening that week. Yeah.

I think we'll get into ADL actually, cuz a lot of people were confused about this and I think some of our pro members requested a, uh, a Eli Five explanation from Ceteris. So we're gonna, we're gonna go, go for that later. But maybe first, how, yeah, how about you Ceteris and Jason Yanowitz Yanowitz? How, how was it for you guys?

I'll let someone else do the ADL thing, but, uh, for me, um, yeah, to be honest, I wasn't like feeling too hot and so I took like a little nap. And then I kind of like woke up and I looked at my phone and there was a message from Flip and it said, do we still have jobs on Monday? And I was like, what? Like, what's going on? And then I kind of like pull everything up and then I go and I'm like looking at the charts and it's like, yeah, stuff has crashed a lot. But it, at that point to me, it didn't look like too crazy, right? Pump was at like 4.5 or something like that. SOL was like in the 190s. And then I start going to like the Delphi Reads chat and I'm seeing like someone got filled at like 0.0015 on Pump. And I'm like, what? Pump went down to like 0.0015? Um, like how? And then I started looking at— then I'm trying to like figure out what this stuff is actually trading at. And then I realized that like I'm pulling up like Coinbase charts, it like SOL is trading at like 200 on Coinbase and it's trading at 180 on Binance. And I'm like, what the— what the hell is like going on here right now, right? It was just like, that was the wild thing for me here is everything was like so disconnected for a long time, like an hour, 2 hours. You had prices on all the exchanges be like completely different, right? Um, me personally, I don't trade perps, so it wasn't like too bad from that perspective, like spot positions went down and stuff. But whenever, whenever we get these big kind of blowups, I actually don't do anything. Um, I kind of just like, like I don't use the blockchains, I don't like do anything. I kind of just like watch stuff happen because I don't think that I can really do anything that's gonna like— I kind of just let stuff shake out. Um, but yeah, like when, when the stuff was so dislocated for so long, that's when it was kind of like weird. And it was specifically on Binance. And then you're starting to think like, oh, somebody on Binance must just be like blowing up or something and is just like liquidating all their positions. And then you saw USDT started to go down on Binance. And then that started triggering more stuff because like, that's not what started the this. It's still really unclear.

It's clear that it wasn't what started it though. I think like the, the time series is pretty clear that like USD depegged 20 minutes after the bottom of the, of the wick.

Honestly, I honestly think that this was just too much OI in altcoins that— I mean, Jeff Dorman had a good post on this about how it trades like high-yield bonds and liquidity. The bids just kind of evaporated all at once. And it was like this technical crash that kind of like got out of hand. And I don't know if we'll ever know the true driver. Like, the thing is, you don't know how any of these liquidation engines actually work, right? Even, even for like Hyperliquid. Okay. Like Hyperliquid is on-chain and like on-chain. It, like, you can see positions, you can see how much was liquidated and everything, but still, like, the source code and everything, you don't. And obviously with the centralized exchange, the ADL form is also, like, open.

Like, you could, you could in theory derive your place in the ADL queue, I believe, on HyperLiquid using their, their docs.

Like, yeah, I mean, HyperLiquid is definitely way better than the centralized exchanges when it comes to this, but even still, like, especially with the, the big centralized exchanges. Like, you don't actually know how they're liquidating the position, right? And so, and then obviously once like so many people use Binance as an oracle, um, then it kind of just made stuff worse. So that was my perspective. It was kind of just like, um, and the thing is like the majors didn't go down that much. Right?

So it depends on the platform.

I just mean from a spot perspective. Yeah, yeah, right. Like, so somebody who thinks— so that's like— and I'm not saying like, and I'm not like saying like perps are bad or anything. I just like don't personally trade perps because it's just something I'm not like good at or whatever. But like, the, the spot positions didn't actually go down like too much, right? Like, it wasn't actually that massive of a move. It was mostly like on the majors, it was mostly like the alts. Um, I think what, what you really— what really came to the forefront after this whole event is like, we've talked about this whole consolidation thing over the past couple years, and we always talk about the consolidation with like price and everything, but it's like liquidity too, right? Like this consolidation is not just the price of these assets, it's like the whole market structure around them. And there's just like no bid for so many of these things that might trade at like some high paper market cap. But when someone needs to step in, like nobody's willing to step in to be the bidder of like, you know, ATOM, which went to a penny, right? So that's the biggest takeaway.

I think it was.

Yeah.

I think it was a— anyway, Jason, maybe you can, you can, uh, jump in with your, your thoughts. If you have anything to add.

I mean, there's not too much to add on, uh, you know, kind of what happened. I guess we'll get into the, the Athena thing and the, uh, and ADL a little bit more in a sec. But I mean, yeah, for me, like, I, I was actually just getting back from, from running a couple, uh, errands and I just like walked inside and everything was just like kind of nuking and I was like, um, What am I really supposed to do? Like, I didn't really have like a, like a good, uh, game plan, right? Like, I was kind of expecting like a, a decent little washout to like, like 110 or something, maybe. Um, but like, yeah, and I just like really wasn't expecting it. Kind of caught me off guard. Um, I had some fairly low leverage positions that were pretty big notional that were already on that just, um, pretty much went to zero by time I like sat down, adjusted my chair, like, you know, took some eye drops to like make sure I wasn't dreaming. Um, and then tried to buy something that got liquidated within like 2 minutes of opening the position. I was just like, all right, you know, I'm just gonna not light more money on fire. And then I tried to send more money over to Hyperliquid to buy things when, when, when, like, I was like kind of comfortable to buy things because I was, you know, pretty low cash balance by that, by that point. And it took a while to get money onto, onto Hyperliquid as well because, because that shit wasn't working. So like nothing was like working across the board. I think Bybit worked. I think Hyperliquid worked. Everything else kind of had issues, but like even getting money there wasn't, wasn't easy. Coinbase didn't fucking work. Um, I was trying to buy Pump there too, didn't work. Just didn't— nothing worked really. Um, at least things I was trying to buy. So it was just like kind of shitty. Like obviously like it was a pretty big hit for anybody that had any amount of leverage, right? Like I don't know if somebody had that thread, it's like 1.3x or above, you, you your positions got like, it's like fucking insane, right?

Like, and it was the perfect storm with like the Perpdex farming spree. Like, so many people, dude, he brought everybody from the trenches to these Perpdexes just to get nuked and get rinsed on memes, get rinsed on perps.

Yeah, we got to go back to the animals.

It was all-time high. Like, I've never seen anyone— I was feeling like kind of bad because I've been meaning to like start farming LIDR for ages and I just didn't get around to doing it. And then I was like, fucking hell, I would have definitely gotten wrecked on this one. And yeah, this— there was a bunch of laziness that actually like saved me because I, yeah, I was, I was gone all day and then I came back, someone sent me a screenshot of like, uh, Athena like 20 or, you know, 25 cents. I was like, what the fuck just happened? And I went on my, my computer and just started looking at stuff. And yeah, I just missed like the real, the real bad wick. But I just, yeah, I was like, fortunately I think enough time's passed now, but I was like somewhat bearish over the last few weeks, and so I had some cash, and so I just started bidding shit. Um, just, I think over time in crypto, those times are like the scariest to bid, but you just have to bid. I think, yeah, if you have money, if you're long stuff and you're not a trader, right, you're like long— well, you're long stuff with some fundamental, like, long-term basis, you just have to bid these like negative 30% liquidation days, forced selling. So I just did a bit of that.

There were plenty of top signals too. We were learning Chinese, but like us Americans were learning Chinese to memes on BNB. Like there were plenty of frothy signals there for us.

Yeah, sure. For -10%, not -80%.

I also was trying to do the USD trade. I was trying to do the USD like because I saw USD, I think at 90-something cents. and I was just trying to figure out where I could get perps to like lever up on the, on the, on the trade. Cause I just thought it was gonna be the best like risk return. Uh, cause they were, I, I saw they were like continuing to do redemptions one-to-one and like mechanically, unless they got ADL'd, which maybe we should get into next, unless they got ADL'd, I kind of knew that, uh, they should be doing better here. Cause also the, the dislocations on the perp versus spot markets were absurd, right? Like some you, you had, you had some of these things trade like 10%. Below, right? Like the— and so for them, when they're closing out the perp positions, they're just like collecting, collecting that delta. Um, so I figured they'd be more overcollateralized than— yeah, guy had the, the tweet, he was really on top of it. Um, maybe we can go into— yeah, I mean, I think the USD and like Athena discussion is interesting. Maybe we can start with just like ADL, because I think a lot of people were surprised to find out that this was a thing, uh, to, to know that— yeah, like I think most people did not know this was a thing. And maybe I'm going to nominate Flip as our perp dex expert. And maybe you can go through just like the waterfall for most perp dexes, right? Of like the, the insurance fund and then ADL. Yeah.

I think also before Flip goes, the important thing to point out why ADL exists is because like none of these things have KYC and like there's no— like you have to do ADL. So Flip, you can go into explaining how it works. But like, I think a lot of people have kind of been missing that point. Like if you don't have ADL, like What do you do, right?

It's also a very common, like, risk, like, engine piece in exchanges. Like, it's, it's quite common. And people— there's pros and cons to both. Like, some, some people prefer doing socialized risk because then instead of taxing your, your traders who are, who are in the green, you just kind of socialize and everyone wakes up to a 1-2% cut. And then over time they get, you know, their, their plat— their, you know, notional value starts to come back up to par as they— that gets paid out. But I kind of view it as like exchanges have 3 core functions and they, they try to maximize each of these. You've got liquidity, you have solvency, and you have uptime. And like ADL is to help with the solvency side of things. And, and how it works is like the pecking order is like, hey, you have liquidations on the order book, then you hit the insurance fund, and then you, then you get ADL'd as like a last resort to keep the, the exchange solvent. And so like it's, it's great from a risk management standpoint for the exchange, but it just, it just taxes users. And what happens is like once the insurance fund is like, hey, tapped out, hey, we can't fully liquidate this position, then you start— who's on the other side of that trade? Like, who— whoever was long, you know, Pingu, and who was short Pingu? Like, whoever was long is, you know, getting liquidated, but the fund doesn't have enough, uh, assets to liquidate it. So then it goes to ADL, and so it's like, okay, who was shorting it? We got to start trimming that based on their P&L percentage and leverage is kind of how it works. And that's just to keep the exchange solvent.

So basically though, how it works is like, um, you're just netting them out, right? Um, and it starts with like the, the highest leverage is what they start to liquidate first, right? Because it's auto deleveraging, right? Like you're trying to deleverage the system. And so this will get into Athena after, who like doesn't use leverage, right? Which is why they're at the bottom. But you start with like the accounts that have the most leverage and you start cutting them down. I think one thing though that's very unclear is that these exchanges— you talked about how like it hits the insurance fund first and then ADL. I think that's how it's supposed to work, but I don't think that's how it works, right? Because all these exchanges have like massive insurance funds and I'm pretty sure they went to ADL before that.

Yeah, there's a lot of undisclosed things around like ADL and insurance funds, like for Hyperliquid and others, like the logic and like the threshold for like when you get ADL'd is not clear. And then also like the insurance fund, like how many dollars are in there, where it exists, when does it kick in, when does it not? Like things like that aren't super clear, which isn't helpful. And so like, I think teams like Lighter have come out and said, hey, we're, we didn't do a good job of this and we're going to do a better job of saying like, hey, here are our thresholds for ADL. And I think it's quite interesting because it's very hard to find information on the insurance fund. Like for the, for the normal user, like you have to quite, you have to dig quite a lot to find it on Hyperliquid.

I guess high level, is it worth— is it, is it just longs and shorts have to balance obviously, right, on a, on a perp exchange? So if longs get wrecked, um, you need, you need to close. You need to either find more longs to— or, or you need to close some of the shorts, right? Otherwise there's no one to pay out the shorts.

And this is where it gets interesting because you saw like Lighter's less aggressive on the ADL side, so their LLP took a huge hit. Because they, they were the market maker of last resort.

Yeah, what the hell happened with, with LIDR? Because I'm confused as to what happened with, with LIDR, because LLP somehow ended up, um, short. That, that's what's kind of weird. Um, like what I don't really get. Do you know what happened there? Like, has there been a postmortem on LIDR?

The postmortem on that side isn't— was, wasn't super helpful, but they're, they're LLP works more as like a, a last minute market maker, a market maker of last resort. And HLP's kind of stepped away from that. Earlier on, they were much more, they were doing a lot more market making and now they're not. Why, why LLP is negative, like, like bearish right now, like net short, like I'm not sure, but they're generally speaking, uh, the, the market maker of last resort. And that's why you saw like users on their platform, like there were still some ADLs, but they were less aggressive. So like there were some people running delta neutral with their they're long on Hyperliquid, short on Lido, and like they actually woke up fine and like they were okay because the LLP took on more of the losses and risk than the users versus like HLP's up, you know, 140% annual, whatever, right now, something crazy. And that's because instead of the vault taking the hit, the users took the hit. And so like there's pros and cons to both.

On ADL, I want to give the actual like Eli Five explanation, okay? Because I still don't know if people totally get it. So for a super simple example, say you have two traders, right? One is long SOL, one is long— one has $100. They both have $100 of collateral. Okay. And there's a 2x long and a 2x short. Okay. So those are the $100 collateral and a 2x. That's a $200 position. Okay. When the long— when the price of SOL goes down 50%, that long now is worth zero, right? Because the 2x leverage, the $100 got like wiped out to zero and the short is now in profit $100, right? So at that moment in time, they completely cancel each other out. Okay. If you don't force the short to close there, which is what like ADL kind of does and the long keeps going lower, then the exchange now is insolvent because it now owes the short more than that long was able to like pay out, right? And so essentially that's what the, the auto deleveraging does, is that there's no like transfer of like physical— like the insurance fund is like physical dollars that is coming in to like bid it up. The ADL is like this, it's just like this math like canceling each other out sort of deal. Um, and so shorts sometimes feel screwed because it's like 'Oh, this thing dropped 80%, I would have closed it out down 80%, but they automatically forced me out at like 50%.' Um, and so in isolation, that might not be the biggest— that might not sound like the biggest deal to you, like, 'Oh, they still made like 50%, like, that's, that's dope.' Uh, but it's the fact that a lot of people were running delta-neutral strategies, right? As we talked about earlier, how was like one exchange they had the short leg and one exchange they had the long leg. And so they weren't end up being delta neutral because they got automatically like closed out, right? Um, so yeah, I think that's like the best Eli Five I can kind of do for it.

Yeah, that's a good— that's a good Eli Five. Um, but why? Yeah, because, because you would think that LLP and HLP would end up like long after this, right? Like there would be— there would be— they would be buying the, the the bottom, basically. So it— I don't know what happened that did— LLP ended up short.

It ended up short the Yeezy token. It was the entire—

yeah, it's the entire—

why?

So just bleeding that to zero, which, I mean, thankfully, like, won't mess up their profits like that much. Like, yeah, it won't hit it too bad. But, you know, but it's also like, imagine if that was on like a much bigger, like, asset. I, that'd be tough.

I think ADL, honestly, the, the people that had the best ADL implementation was BitMEX. I don't know if you remember, if anyone traded on, on BitMEX, but they had like that you could see your position in the ADL queue like transparently back in the day, uh, which I think is like pretty interesting.

Also turned off the exchange at primo times, right? That helped too.

I mean, if you— I mean, for this one, we have this red dildo. Huh? If he was here for this one, he would have just turned it off.

We would have been good.

Yeah, well, BitMEX was posting, they're bragging about how their uptime, uh, actually during this whole thing.

Well, I think that queue logic is like interesting. I think other exchanges should look into it, like Lido, Paradex. I really like— they should look into that because I was talking to some market makers over the weekend. They're like, it'd be nice to know where I was and like where I was in the queue on when I was gonna get ADLs.

It feels like that is going to be the next— we are going to get things are going to change after this. I think people are demanding a lot more transparency into like how these liquidations are actually happening. And there's so much competition now in perps that it seems pretty likely we're going to get this. And yeah, the ADLQ thing, I'm sure we're going to start to see exchanges put this ADLQ now. Maybe— I don't know if there's like some— there's— I don't know if putting all that public, if I haven't thought about like the downsides of that. Like maybe people can be like hunted or something. I'm not totally sure. Maybe somehow you can make it private. So like only the person who actually owns the keys to like that account can see where they are in the position.

I'm not sure you can hunt an ADL because it's a systemic exchange-wide thing, right? Like ADL happens. So I think you'd have to, if you'd have that much capital, there's probably better ways to hunt someone. I don't know. Maybe I'm not thinking about it.

No, I'm just thinking like there might be downsides that I don't know. I'm thinking if there are like really no downsides to making it public, and the only downside is that like the team has to put in extra work to make this thing a feature, then I think that it is something that the market is going to start demanding more.

So speaking of ADL, maybe we can move on to Athena because this was a big topic over the weekend. ADL was, was an interesting one that I think Shoku was the one that said that Athena had a special arrangement with the exchanges to not get ADL'd, which Um, I don't know that that's the case. Like, I don't have— I've never heard of that before, and I've been pretty deep with in the Athena docs and, and stuff. I've never heard of that being a thing. I believe Athena is just naturally much lower down the waterfall because first of all, they're running unlevered, right? It's like a 1x leverage. And, and because they're like constantly sweeping, like settling and sweeping any profits back, right? So like Naturally, the two things that put you highest on the queue are how levered you are, because they're trying to unlever the exchange. And then for some exchanges, I think for Hyperliquid specifically, it's your, your P&L, like your unrealized P&L, with the idea being— and it's like there's a formula that's actually on their docs somewhere— with the idea being that, you know, if you've made more money, it hurts you less, right, to get closed out. And so I think Athena just naturally sits much lower on the queue. And then it's also worth noting that as far as I could tell, there was no ADL on majors on any of the exchanges that Athena's on. Like, there was ADL on some of the alts, but I don't think SOL, ETH, or BTC had any ADL happen on the major centralized exchanges. So it would never really have been a thing. And then, yeah, there was this whole thing that Athena, like, depegged or, like, briefly depegged on Binance, like USDT did. And yeah, I'm unfortunately somewhat of an expert on de-peg having lived through more than my fair share of de-peg at this point. And I think like Hasib had a good post about how it wasn't really a de-peg because it only happened on Binance. The price stayed at 99, I think 997 on Curve, which is the most liquid venue by far. And on Bybit, I think it only dipped down to something like 96. So I think that's a good point. But I do think at some point, I think the main point for me is just that there's two kinds of de-peg, right? There's one de-peg, which is the secondary price on dips on some venue. And then there's a second kind of de-peg, which is like you have actual impairment of collateral, right? And the first one just isn't that bad. And it's going to happen to every stablecoin at some point. Like USDC obviously had theirs in like May 2023 with the Silvergate Bank stuff. Like Tether famously had one in like, I think it was April 2017 or something like this. They were depegged for like a few weeks because of the one of the infamous like Tether FUDs. And I think these things are always going to happen. People are going to panic. They're probably going to get exacerbated by like liquidation cascades. And so like, I expect at some point USD will also go through a proper like depeg of those, although I don't think it has. I don't think these ones qualify so far. But what you really want to worry about is like when your collateral gets impaired, right? And again, like for real, like collateral-backed stablecoins in crypto, I don't think this has ever happened. I think the closer was Maker in Black Thursday where apparently Paradigm came in and bid the ETH in the auction.

I mean, USDC actually, if they didn't get bailed out, like the collateral was impaired for that in March of 2020.

USDC?

Yeah. Remember the USDC Silicon Valley Bank thing?

Yeah, but they had like 5%, they had 5%, yeah, they have 5% of their reserves in Silicon Valley. But then Silicon Valley Bank just, just, uh, what happened there?

Oh, it got bailed out. If they didn't get bailed out though, USDC would have been fucked because everybody would have redeemed and they had to honor redemptions at $1. And so it was only worth like 90 to 95 cents. So eventually it would have went to zero. Like, even though it was like billions of dollars, I'm telling you, if, if they didn't get bailed out, like that all would have been redeemed. Like market makers would have redeemed like billions at a time. and they would have totally nuked the entire, like, DeFi and everything.

Um, yeah, that's fair. But even then, it's like, it's a, it's like a time thing, right? Like, Silicon Valley Bank had the assets, uh, it's just that they didn't, like, they weren't going to be liquid for a while. I think they would have found some kind of debt facility to, to be able to, to, like, plug the hole. I don't think it would have been a— I don't think USDC would have depegged from whatever it was. Like, I think they had 4% of their assets or something with Silvergate, no? I just don't think it would have been appropriate. But I get the point taken. I think the reason that people get so stressed out is because the 1 and 2, like the temporary depeg of the price and the impairment of collateral, kind of got confused because of algorithmic stablecoins. Right. Because those are like confidence-based systems. And so 1 can actually lead to 2. Right. If the thing starts trading poorly on secondary markets, then people start selling it more, you know, more of the share token gets minted and the reflexive cycle kind of starts. But that isn't the case with any other, any of the collateral-backed stablecoins, obviously including USDT.

So yeah, I think that's for me the main point of this is that like, yeah, I saw a good post from someone that worked at an oracle or maybe risk management firm and they talked about how oracles these days need to be smarter. About actually taking into account like the mint/redeem function of these assets, right? Like if USDE can always be redeemed 1:1, or if Binance Wrapped Ether, wrapped SOL, can always be redeemed 1:1— and when I say always can be redeemed, I, I know that that actually might not be the case at times, which I'll like get into— but you kind of need to take into account like that factor. Right? And this goes back to your whole impaired collateral thing. And so I think it will be interesting to see kind of like how people think about— how did— like, AAVE, for instance, hardcodes USDE to 1 to USDT, right? Everyone was like, see, this is like why this was good in this situation, right? I think as long as like— yeah, as long as USDE can be redeemed 1 for a dollar, and one-to-one is actually the wrong framing because there's no guarantee that USDT should be a dollar anyways. It's not, um, like you could trade 95 cents if it like needed to, right? My point is that like there kind of needs to be a way to know transparently when USDT is actually no longer a dollar, right? With the mint and burn function, which I'm like, I mean, Athena, it's not like 20, it's not like every second or whatever, you can totally see Athena's balance, right? Like they kind of release it like every now and again. So in a time of crisis, like I don't think you actually know if USDE is still a dollar. And so I think that's something that would go further in the market to like, if you can kind of figure out that angle of it. Because, you know, the, the USDT peg risk is not that it goes to zero, right? It's that it goes to like 95 cents, because then you have just a lot of like undercollateral looping and everything, right?

Um, which is kind of what we saw happen on Binance a little bit, like Because it, because it priced there. Yeah, because it priced down, then the market makers, you know, margin model started screaming false signals.

And again, that's like, that's the worst because like Binance, they just done this, this, um, promotion, right, where you could get like, uh, 12% yield for trading with USD as collateral. And so like USD balances on Binance were at all-time high. I think it was nearly $6 billion of USD on Binance. And that's an even worse one because you said it was like 1.3x leverage or something, you would get licked. Like on, on here, even if you had less than 1x leverage, you would have gone got licked, right? Because your collateral went down 35%, and then your— anything you were long went down, you know, 80% to 30% if you were just long major. So I think anyone who is trading perps with USD as collateral just got like brutally licked. And then, yeah, like Binance was using their own order book as the oracle, which only had I think like $30 million in depth compared to— obviously Curve has hundreds of millions and And so that was their mistake, which they'd apparently changed. And it was going into effect a week from now, which brings me back like UST PTSD when the 3Pool was about to go into effect when someone attacked it. I wonder if there was someone doing that here too.

Like, yeah, I mean, there's a lot of speculation that this was somewhat of an attack. I don't know if we'll ever know. I think we're still learning. I think after these things happen, everybody really wants to like jump to a conclusion about what happened, right? And they really want answers right away. And then you see all these— like, I made this joke tweet the other day where it was like, market blows up, CT knows one market maker. And then you just start seeing all these tweets, hearing rumors that Wintermute blew up. And it's like this kind of stuff. And also as an FYI, like making a prediction that somebody blew up after the largest liquidation event in crypto history is not a hot take. It's like that should actually happen. Like if it doesn't happen, that's actually kind of the bold prediction. Like it would be like so easy. You can just— it's so easy to start rumors in this industry. It's like, I know there's this, there's this rumor, like everyone's like, oh, Jump lost a billion. They lost like 10, 20 20% of their book. It's like, I don't know, man, like maybe. But people also just fucking hate Jump, and so you're just gonna get those rumors started regardless. Just like people don't like Wintermute, and so they're the first ones where it's like, oh, Wintermute blew up.

Um, and crypto.com.

Yeah, crypto.com. And it's like, listen, there's definitely a lot of people hurting that we might— it might take more time to really come out of this. I don't— like, maybe I'm being naive here. I don't think that there's any, like, systemic loss to, like, the system the way that, like, other crashes have actually led to, like, all these big insolvencies and everything. I think, like, you know, the thing that kind of— as being as good or bad in your perspective, I think the thing that the reality is that I think it was just, like, a lot of like high net worth people who made a lot of crypto that got liquidated, right? And obviously funds did too that were doing this, but I don't think the Wintermutes of the world got hurt, right? Obviously none of the VCs got hurt because they're not doing this.

Um, a bunch of liquid funds got, got hurt.

Yeah, yeah, for sure. Um, but again, I don't know if like anything. I mean, and we'll see, maybe something will come out, but it, like, it does seem like it's kind of isolated.

Um, I mean, the main thing is there just isn't the leverage in the system, right, that there was in 2022. Like, you don't have, uh, Alex Mashinsky going out and saying his thing is safer than banks and then lending to 3AC, right? Like, uncollateralized. Like, there's, there just isn't the— that you don't have that uncollateralized leverage in the system to where even if I think one of these entities, unless it was a centralized exchange, obviously, but one of these entities going insolvent, I don't think has those like systemic—

Yeah, yeah, exactly. Like you had a lot of leverage, but you didn't have, at least it appears now, you didn't have like the uncollateralized leverage. Yeah, it's kind of just a lot of stuff was netted out and there was a lot of money kind of like incinerated and like transferred to the centralized exchanges. Yeah.

Who transferred to? I'm kind of like struggling. I struggle with that.

Like who?

Who, who does? Because shorts and longs are like 1-to-1, right?

So I think Naked Shorts that it got EDL'd still did well, right? Um, because if you actually look, there's this thread by Storm at Paradigm, and, uh, and I mean, he was like, narrative violation, all the ADLs, they actually, uh, liquidated them at the bottom, which is like, okay, kind of makes sense. So if you're gonna force liquidate everybody, like, it's probably gonna be the bottom. Right? Um, but again, I think all the naked shorts would have done well here because they didn't do any socialized losses, right? To like what Flip was saying earlier, they just got blown out. Um, then the exchanges I think probably made a bunch of money. I mean, didn't Hyperliquid make like an insane amount.

40 mil, right? HLP.

Yeah, I made a lot.

And so like, just imagine what like the centralized exchanges made.

How do you like think about it going forward, right? So like, you think about all the people that got liquidated, right? So probably a bunch of liquid funds, a bunch of high net worth traders, a bunch of just trench people too, right? Given the perp DEX meta that, that we were talking about and how everybody's kind of moved over to farming that and those things, right? Um, so like, what do you think that means for tokens going forward, given the fact that, I don't know, $50 billion, $20 to $50 billion, somewhere in that range got liquidated, right? Like, it's a huge amount of fucking money, especially in a market that already kind of had a tough time of balancing all of the coins with the amount of capital available, right? So like, obviously something like Bitcoin or ETH or whatever probably won't even really be affected because you have a huge, you know, institutional bid, um, from various, you know, angles.

But for everything else, yeah, no, I think it's just getting worse of what we've seen.

It's gonna be kind of brutal. And even the coins that I think have done really well, like the revenue meta coins, right, like they're not gonna have as much revenue when all of their fucking users are dead, right? Like Perp traders are wrecked right now. So like, you know, you'll probably see PerpDEX fees compress. Pump, for example, another coin that, you know, all of us like, probably had a bunch of their users get wrecked in this as well. So you'll probably see less volumes, less things in those types of launchpads as well. So like, what do you kind of buy?

Yeah, like, I think this, this— I think people want this like consolidation thing to be a moment in time thing. I think this just like even pushes it a further leg more where again people don't want to hold. You've just seen it, man. It's like there's so many coins that— I mean, SOL, ETH, and Bitcoin. ETH got back over $4K, SOL got back over $200, Bitcoin got back to like $115. There's tons of vaults that are still like, you know, Jito. I own a little Jito, okay? It's trade— which is traded like shit. Solbeta, um, but it's still— it's at like $1.13, you know, that's still down significantly from the 10th. Uh, Initia is at like 19 cents, it was at like 30 cents. Um, I'm just looking at—

yeah, you need a— you need a reason to hold.

19 cents? No, initially— sorry, I thought you said Celestia, my bad.

No, no, I mean Celestia though too. Celestia is a coin that hasn't had a bid, right? It's at $1.10, it was at like It was a decent amount higher than that.

Like, a lot of these coins that just don't have structural bids, or even the ones that did have structural bids, are now probably not going to have as strong structural bids as they would have had prior to everybody getting liquidated on Friday. So like, maybe—

I think Bitcoin, like—

well, no, I'm saying outside of Bitcoin, ETH, and SOL. Remove those because those are like—

okay, yeah, yeah, yeah, those are what I'm gonna say.

Yeah, no, of course those will probably generally be fine to varying degrees based on, you know, DApps and ETFs and all that stuff, but like literally anything else, like what's, what's your like bull case for owning one of, you know, the myriad of altcoins you can—

I still think, I still think it's the, the consolidation and revenue coins. Like they generate profit, they have real revenue. Like I'd still like, like hyper liquid is—

but like wouldn't you agree that like they're gonna probably generate less revenue?

Absolutely, I think so.

Like their bull case isn't as strong, but they don't have as much downside. Side probably as the—

but like, even if the bull case is now less strong, as somebody who owns it, like, you know, a lot of, a lot of hype and, and pump, um, you know, I'm FUDing my bags here, um, what, like, if the bull case is less strong and everybody's like, you know, anchored to a, a stronger bull case and a higher val— like, doesn't that just mean everything has to compress a little bit in those?

I'll take, I'll take, I'll take the other side. I'll say, hey, I'm literally on the other side. I'm sorry, I'm wrong here. The other side, it's like, on the other side, it's like, hey, Hyperliquid had 100% uptime. They're still solvent. Like, DeFi actually did really well. And if Hyperliquid's historically traded at like a 25x price-to-free-cash-flow multiple, like, maybe it trades at 35x. Maybe it doesn't even see a big correction, and people is like, hey, I'm willing to pay more of a premium for an asset that is now getting Lindy effects. Like, I think, I think that's where the market goes.

Yeah, I think to go to the— well, maybe to go to the winners and losers then, because I agree, I think DeFi was a big winner here. And I think maybe the biggest loser was Binance, actually. And so I think this— because I'm with you, Jason, it feels like your customers just all died. Like a lot of these perp dexes, you know, you killed all your customers. Like, the thing is, they have been dying for like 2 years.

Yeah.

Yeah, this is like an extension of Antminer.

Yeah, yeah.

Like, and like anyone— yeah, like anyone who is leveraged at all, right? Which is kind of what you want. Like, and certainly all of like retail being on any of these exchanges just got wrecked. Like, even I'm, I'm like more, uh, I'm gonna be much more careful on leverage going forward knowing that, you know, if this is how— if this had happened sort of I don't know, a month and a half or two months ago when I was extremely leveraged long, um, I would have gotten wrecked, you know. So I think that's going to affect how people trade moving forward. And like, I think some people just don't have the, the capital either to— like, they just got blown up. Like, there's a few people that, that I know, or like funds that really took like pretty big hits from this, and painful ones where, you know, if, if, if it was just the prices as they are now, they would have maybe taken like a 30% hit or something, but actually they blew up like 70 to 80% because because of the liquidations, right? So, and I think the people that bid are generally not ones that are putting money back into the market. I don't know, I guess it was the market makers in the centralized exchanges. So I can see there being like just a bit of an on-chain ice age from this, where there's just less people because everything, all the revenue-generating apps, uh, are leveraged speculation, right? Whether it's Pump or, or the Perp DEXs, or I mean Mantle, like everything is leveraged speculation other than maybe stablecoins. But even Athena is to some extent leveraged speculation, right? You need like positive funding for trade, right?

Use it as cash, right?

Like, and you need people to trade to use it as cash. So like even the stablecoins to some extent are leveraged speculation. So I do think That's bad. But on the other side, Hyperliquid crushed it. They had 100% uptime where the biggest exchange that has like an 8-year history didn't, went down for like an hour and like they made rookie mistakes with their oracles that even DeFi platforms don't make. You know, like the sort of worst DeFi platforms don't make these mistakes. And then like their listing process is getting pretty like, you know, taken out back on CT. People are realizing like they're getting 9% of tokens for some of these projects to list.

Extortion level.

And when you ask like people with a low float, high FDV, they're like, who makes money from this? Because like first they blame the VCs, you blame— and like who makes money from this is BNB holders, by the way. They're the only people that get to realize that valuation. Like because the launch pools and stuff, these tokens are unlocked day one, getting distributed to them. So it's literally BNB holders are the ones who've been realizing all these valuations and dumping on people. So like, I do think there's some— I don't know if it'll— because like nothing ever happens or whatever. Like, that sort of should be your base case, especially with someone as big as— an entity as big and successful as Binance. But there does seem to be the start of like these rumblings of people getting upset with them.

This is a good— this is like a big opportunity for Hyperliquid. And they did, they did, from my perspective, who again is like, I feel like I'm pretty neutral on this because I don't trade perps and I don't own any of the tokens in any of these. Well, I'm an angel investor now in one, but like, it's not live. I think Hyperlique would like, objectively did well, right, versus like everything else. Um, and there's a lot of like, I think a lot of some people are mad that they got like EDL'd or whatever, but realistically, like for the most part, I think people are pretty happy with like how they handled it and their comms after and everything. And this is kind of that opportunity when you're like, what's the bull case after like all their revenue, all their customers blew up and everything? It's like, well, I think they could get more customers maybe, right?

Um, I think so. I think the trust in those platforms and Bitnus continues to go higher.

Because of this.

Like, yes, the revenues will get hit, but I think their trust in, in these platforms and DeFi as a whole will increase.

Yeah, I mean, Solana did well too. Like, I know like people don't like to talk about what did well here because it's kind of like— I think Mert had this good reply to Toly because Toly had like the 3 emojis on like something. But I mean, uh, Solana did well, man, and it wouldn't have done— it would have, it would have shut off like 2 years ago, right? Fees like didn't get out of hand. You could close liquidations, you get your priority transactions in. Now Solana doesn't have the massive on-chain perps as other places, right? So if Solana had a hyper liquid level perp exchange, that's a different test, right? But still, it was ingesting like over 100K TPS. It wasn't doing 100K TPS, but like validators were getting ingested with 100K TPS and it did well and like fees didn't spike so too much. So I don't know, I'm still like super—

So what's the difference? They didn't do 100K TPS. The validators were ingesting, they were able to like process it in the validator.

Like they couldn't fill the blocks with that many, but they were able to take them in without like getting flooded and like overwhelming the validator client and like, kind of like shutting down, which has happened.

The networking work.

The networking layer. Yeah. When it comes to like the actual block, they still have like CU limits and everything. So there's like a limit of how much transactions you can like fit in a block. But yeah, I don't know. I'm still, I still think Solana is like just the test put together L1, um, and I think that was like a good test for it. I think, yeah, I think Solana and Hyperliquid honestly were two kind of like winners from, from what happened. It's like, even if you look at the L2s, man, the L2 fees spike like crazy. It's like, I don't understand how these L2s can't come close to Solana's throughput. It's like there's one fucking like sequencer. It's like, like, why can't you even come close? To Solana's performance. I don't get it. Like, you should be able to figure that out.

I do think the broader, like, bear case— and it's kind of the bear hold thesis that I was giving you in Montenegro, Jason Yanowitz. Oh God, I don't want to repeat it here because I don't want to FUD our listeners. But just that, like, crypto is not the best casino anymore. That's like the high level, right? Or this year it hasn't been, right? Right? Like, and you kind of see this with this, like, stocks are up a lot this year, and if you were in stocks, you took like a 3% drawdown, and then mercifully the markets closed, and then, uh, you know, everything, everything popped back up on Monday. And our, our people in— it's like the, the Mel Gibson, you know, with The Passion of Christ meme. Like, uh, it's just us like coming in on Monday like fully liquidated. And it's so— I don't know, like, the, the alts like still haven't recovered, right? To— and Neither have Majors, to be honest, but like alts definitely haven't recovered back to the levels they were before this. And it's just like, um, it's at some point it does start to be like reflexive, right? More and more people off-ramp and start to chase other, other casinos, I guess. Um, and to the extent that's the use case, it needs to— people need to make money. They don't want to get liquidated and blown up.

Yeah, Trenches need that Monad airdrop to hit.

I was going to say, or HIP3.

HIP3 could be super cool too, I think. Like bring in some new liquidity. I think it went live Monday, right? That's really exciting.

What are you most excited about HIP3? Like what kind of markets are you kind of most excited to see?

I'm most excited about the USD markets just because, yeah, it's like another source of fees for Athena. But honestly, the most exciting ones I think are like stocks and commodities and like see them compete with, with Ostium. I think it's Unit, right, that's going to be building that, like Hyper Unit.

Yeah, they've got Trade.xyz, right?

I think so.

Yeah.

Yeah. I mean, it's going to be interesting to see how they solve like the issues of, you know, while markets are closed and and stuff like this. Um, but, uh, yeah, I think it'll be okay for like major indexes, right?

So like SPY and the Qs. Um, it'll definitely get dicier when you're talking individual names. I think like getting a SPY spot asset on-chain that you can borrow against is actually a big unlock. I don't— I'm not like a big fan of getting spot stocks on-chain. Like these X stocks with like get Apple on-chain and all this. I think you start going to individual names, it's just like liquidity. And then you have like 10 different issuers. It's like, have these guys seen what like the bridge and like stablecoin wars were in like 2021 where you have like UST, EEL, Y and everything? Like that's kind of how the stocks are going. But if you just get like really liquid like SPY or Qs on-chain, that could be a pretty good product because you can build up a lot of liquidity in that. And for most people, it's like they can't borrow against their ETFs, right? Um, and now you can kind of put this on-chain and start doing that there. I do think we're going to start seeing more— I mean, we've talked about this, how it's like you're always, Jose, you're always like, our RWA is kind of like bearish for crypto. It's like, well, it's bearish for like valueless alts, like, yes, it is, but that is still good for crypto overall. And that will just like further exacerbate this whole move. Um, it's funny though, man, like, I don't know, I'm still like not bearish. And I know I'm like kind of a permabull, but no, but I'm not like always like super bullish or anything. And I'm not like, I'm not like super bullish right now, but I still, I don't know, I just don't see—

I think this is a good spot.

I don't feel like a massive I just don't think we're going to get a massive drawdown from here for like an extended period. I just feel like there's so many good tailwinds. Obviously something like could kind of just happen, like, and obviously if the stock market, something happens, obviously crypto is, is, is going down way more. But, um, I don't know, I think it's just a hard market because it's, it's even before this, this crash last week, like If you're a momentum trader, this has been like the worst year or two, I think, imaginable. Like every time you think something is going to break out to one way or the other, it just kind of like reverses. And I think that's the other thing why this crash was— I think the more I think about this, yeah, it's people who have been like directional traders, um, like futures traders and stuff. And they don't hold like spot assets and they're not like them believers like Murad, um, they kind of got chopped for like a year or two and then this happened, right? And that's like pretty rough. Um, yeah. And so I think this— yeah, no, I'm trying to— I'm kind of just thinking now. Um, yeah.

It's something—

I was gonna say, haven't most people been trained to kind of— if you're not gonna hold spot, you kind of have to be a momentum trader, right? Over the last like 6, 7 years, like that's in stocks too, right? Momentum has, you know, outperformed everything else, um, for the most part. So, so yeah, you get, you get, you know, you get tricked into trading like this and then you just get chopped for a year and then nuked in one day. Yeah, it's—

yeah, it's a tough market.

It's insane.

Yeah, I mean, it's crazy because gold, the thesis is playing out, you know, right? Like the thesis that got, I guess, most of us into crypto is playing out.

Yeah, gold is ripping.

So yeah, still though, I mean, I think people are, are, are a bit too critical of BTC. It's like it went up over 100% back-to-back years. It's still fine. Fine. It's like, sure, it's underperforming gold this year for like the first time in, uh, bull— it's like, okay, gold's taking its turn. And gold is still a very different asset than Bitcoin. It's like 20x the size. But, um, I don't think Bitcoin at all is like disappointing. I think it's perfectly natural to get a lot of distribution like $100K, just above $100K. That's like a big psychological number. Um, we'll see. Obviously the, the, you know, SAIL, or I don't know what the MNAV is on MicroStrategy or Strategy anymore.

Um, so, so maybe before the— just summarize section before. So winners: Hyperliquid, um, DeFi generally. Is there anyone else you guys think are, are big winners here? And losers like Binance?

Or did pretty well. We'll see if—

we'll see if Binance is a loser. Right now I would say yes, because it seems like if you've been on Twitter the last couple days, it seems like for the first time people are really going at them. But we'll see if like in a month if this still keeps up. There's like a history in crypto of people just forgetting about stuff, you know.

Yeah, one thing I wonder is why Hyperliquid doesn't go after spot listings properly? Like, um, because it seems like that could be like super bullish. Um, just, just having like a, a competitor to, to Binance Launchpool. Um, you know, to where there's just some attention for these spot listings. I know they have their ticker sales and stuff, but yeah, just, just putting like product around it.

I mean, they have the permissionless launches. Right? Um, I think they wanna— they even had this tweet like today or yesterday talking about how they have— they like, they don't charge for listing fees and everything, which everybody loved. So I feel like it'd kind of be off-brand to start running the Binance playbook of like charging for listings.

And they have permissionless launches on Hyperliquid.

Yeah, you just— you can, you can list anything on the spot markets. Yeah, you have to buy that You just have to buy the ticker. Yeah, yeah, ticker, big, big bidding war on the ticker. Can you sit on hyper liquid tickers like people would sit on.com?

I guess you just need like an underwriter economy, right? Because like what the Binance listing, it's definitely its distribution. And it's like the underwriting that Binance is bullish on this thing. So you kind of need like an underwriting market to start emerging on top of hyper liquid where, you know, someone buys the ticker and does a bunch of like marketing around it or something and like launches it straight on Hyperliquid.

Yeah, if you're going to charge for listings, then you need to be a real underwriter and you need to like be selective and you need to like underwrite things that you think are going to do well. And so like your clients, your customers of your exchange make money, right? It shouldn't be this like you just— I mean, yeah, you airdrop the token to the stakers of your exchange, but it's bad for like the project or whatever, right? That's not how the writing process is supposed to be. You're supposed to like actually want the thing to do well, which I could see Hyperledger maybe getting into, right? Um, and the market definitely needs that. Like even Coinbase, again, Dorman, I know people like to shit on Dorman because he's like a Trifi guy, but he, he, I think he does have a lot of good takes on some of this stuff. Um, he was talking about how Coinbase— it's like Coinbase lists a bunch of dog shit and they don't list like actual coins that do well. Um, and it's like, so what are you, right? Like, as an exchange, don't you want to list assets that'll do well for like your customers, right? Isn't that kind of what you're trying to do? Um, yeah, so there's still opportunity there, I think. Well, I mean, what Legion and Kraken are doing, which is like a shill for or yeah, Delphi Labs. But, uh, that's kind of what they're doing, right? It's, it's like Legion doesn't just allow anybody on. They try and get projects that they think are good projects. And then like Kraken working with Legion, again, they want the same thing, right? They want the, the ICOs that they have to, to do well, right? Yeah. Um, that's like a much healthier market structure.

For sure. Yeah, I wonder if that's an opportunity for Legion just expanding, because the whole goal is just to have distribution from everywhere, right? Like Crypto.com and Kraken and, and like Asian exchange partners, everyone. So I wonder if Hyperliquid is an interesting one to, to tap into doing.

Yeah, I think for Legion it's like you want people to feel like Legion, if they do something on Legion They're not going to make a ton of money every time or whatever, right? But they want to know that it's something legit and yeah, most of the time does, you know, do well.

Cool, guys. Anything else you wanted to touch on? I feel like we touched on most of, most of what I, what we wanted to get through, but is there anything else?

No, I mean, I guess for like just general things, it's like what, Monad, I guess. Did their airdrop claim, and that'll— it seems like mainnet's probably gonna go November. I saw today that MegaETH is doing, uh, it seems like Monnet and MegaETH are both going live next month, I would, I would think, or at least before the year end. And so that'll put a lot of— again, we've already talked about this whole consolidation thing and everything. It's also like consolidation of users and liquidity, and like, what does it mean for like all these EVM chains with, with like two very performant, like I think Monad and MegaETH are two very different EVM chains than kind of what we've seen. And so what does it mean for all the ones outstanding? Like, does it, do these take users from Solana? Do they take users from Hyperliquid? I don't think so as much, like Hyperliquid user base I think is more distinct. But again, this is like this is— what does it mean for Arbitrum? What does it mean for Base? What does it mean for Optimism? Like all this stuff, right? Um, because we have new chains coming in, we don't have new users coming in right away because of those chains, right? Um, yeah. And so how that shakes out will be important.

Do you know what kind of applications are going to be built there? Like, what— why do— why do people want to use Modad? Like, I think that's my thing is like hyper liquid pump, like those, like pitching that as like investment, not investment advice. Like it's quite easy, but like what's, what's Monad?

I mean, they've got like, but like a bunch of C-Law perp stuff. I think that what they want to do well on is the social apps, right? Which I think Base and Solana right now are the only two places that have been getting these kind of like social apps. Um, because I think Fantasy Top is moved to like Monad, right? Um, and then yeah, I think that's, uh, the kind of the area that they would like to win in. Um, but we'll see, we'll see how it goes.

Awesome. All right guys, great episode. Thanks very much, everyone. And thanks, thanks Flip and Jason Yanowitz for joining.

That was awesome.

And yeah, see everyone again in 2 weeks.

Yeah, see everyone. See ya.