Hivemind: Where Do Crypto Markets Go Next?

until we see more certainty return to like, yeah, these DATs and whatnot, um, people just aren't really wanting to buy crypto right now, I think, because it's just like, yeah, there's a lot of uncertainty. And while Bitcoin does look fine, I think like just the fact that gold's ripping and that we saw equity all-time highs just means like— and Bitcoin is kind of just chopping— it's like, I don't know, it's not always a good sign. I know it normally lags a little bit, but like you'd want to see Bitcoin go up here regardless of alts, in my opinion.

Hello everybody. Welcome to another episode of the Hive Mind Podcast. My name is Seteris. José is not on, so I'm doing the intro today. We've got a bit of a different lineup today. We've got myself. I'm head of research at Delphi. We've got Jason, who's head of markets. We've got Yan, who is a partners, uh, uh, partner, ventures partner, ventures partner. No, no, just leave. It's fine.

Nice.

And, uh, and we got LTR, who actually has a new stream that's been on Twitter, um, that you've probably seen. Hopefully you've seen it. If you haven't, go check it out. And he is on the markets team. He's also just kind of like everywhere within the Delphi research squad. Yeah, I think there's actually a lot that's kind of been happening over the past couple weeks. I think first and foremost, we just want to talk about— I think Jackson Hole actually was like after our last podcast, and a lot has kind of happened since then. There was what was seen as like a really dovish Jackson Hole and then prices pumped and then they've kind of like dumped over the last couple days. Seems like Solana has regained a bit on like the BTC and like ETH ratios. There's definitely been a bit of a Solana rotation, but yeah, I don't know. The markets don't look like amazing right now. I think they look like fine. But it is like a lot of chop with, uh, with kind of like pump coming, coming back over the past week. So how are people kind of feeling about this right now? Jason, I think you wrote something the other day about like kind of like two paths on the portal.

I guess, yeah, I'll just start with like my overall thought on Bitcoin. Like I just think, uh, pretty much from like, like mid-August, pretty much from like August through like August and September, I've, I've just like generally been cautious about it for, for a few reasons. One, like seasonality generally at this time is, is not been historically great for Bitcoin and crypto markets. It's usually a period of like, you know, chop, sometimes pullbacks in September towards like the, um, the tail end of Q3. Uh, so you have, you have that seasonality aspect of things that I'm just always, you know, cautious about. Number 2, like when I look at like the Jackson Hole thing as well as like, you know, everybody looking at rate cuts in, in September, Um, I kind of look at it as like almost priced in at this point. Like we've had like a year at this point of people just expecting rate cuts at every meeting and then kind of coalescing around the expectation of, okay, we're not going to get until September after Jackson Hole. Um, and then you kind of saw over the last couple of weeks, like some mixed, uh, economic data come in. And then you had like the, like the CME FedWatch tool, which kind of tracks like the market probabilities for future Fed funds rate, so like rate cuts, um, kind of oscillate, right? So like prior to that, you had like pretty much 99% probability of a rate cut in September, and then we got some mixed data, data prints, uh, after that, and then you saw rate cuts, rate cut probabilities drop like 15, 20, 30% from that, you know, almost guaranteed level to, you know, 70, 80%, which is still like very much like guaranteed, but market obviously kind of reacted to that. And then kind of since Jackson Hole, we've started to climb back up. And I, I was looking at it the other day, but I just pulled it up. And yeah, like the market probabilities for the September 17th Fed meeting is 97.6% expecting a 25 basis point rate cut. So like when I look at that, I'm like, okay, like most of like like that, I guess, expectation, or I guess speculative nature around like rate cuts, um, is probably priced in. So I'm like looking at that as probably not really much of a— not really much of like a short-term thing, right? I think like generally speaking, 3, 6 months after a rate cut. I was looking at a study the other day actually, um, where somebody looked at each of the scenarios in which we've had like a pause for at least 6 months before like I guess since the like most recent rate cut, uh, until the next rate cut and like what the market looks like. And generally speaking, like obviously the sample size for Bitcoin is small, but when you look at it for, for the S&P, uh, the majority of the time, uh, it's up, uh, 3 months later, 6 months later, um, in that kind of scenario. And I think like it has like a sample size of 8 going back to the, to the mid-'90s and then I guess 10 or 12 sample size when you go back even further to the '70s. But when you look at like from the '90s—

the sample is, is what, 6 months in between rate cuts, you said?

So yeah, so like the, the scenario is like, um, when the Fed has been like on pause for 6+ months, like how does the market perform after they cut after that pause, uh, looking forward for like a 3-month period or a 6-month period? And the majority of the time it's up 3 months after and 6 months after. So like when I look at it like that, like on the short-term time frame, like I don't really think this rate cut's going to do too much because I think, like I said, it's mostly priced in. But on the longer-term timeframes, I think it's probably generally bullish through year-end and into Q1. That said, one thing that we wrote about on the markets team, it was Marcus actually wrote about the TGA refill. So the Treasury General Account, TGA, has been depleted for the most part and it needs to refill, right? So what that means is it effectively just like Drains liquidity from other parts of the market, refills the TGA so they can spend out of that account. Like, very simple explanation of it. And that generally, it's underway now, and I think there's about like $250 billion left worth of TGA refill capacity that they need to do. And we're seeing, uh, you know, good absorption of that. We're seeing demand for, for treasuries and things like that. So there isn't too much of a liquidity shock there. But when I was looking at this like a week or two ago, it just another thing that's like, okay, August, September, I'm not gonna like take too much risk on, you know, general market direction. And I'm generally going to wait for the seasonality, the rate cut thing, and the TGA refill and liquidity drain from that to kind of, you know, run its course and then probably get more bullish into, you know, end of Q3 into Q4 and year end. Um, and I think that's generally kind of like playing out, like you're seeing that like with Bitcoin, like it's just very choppy. Um, very sideways. I mean, I think to your point, etc., it looks fine. Um, and then obviously there's some technical things that I've like tweeted out about like short-term momentum. Like all of it's just kind of tapped out to an extent. You have the DAT buyers, um, the big one with Sailor kind of, you know, being tapped out of buying capacity with MNAV being kind of depressed. So I just think this period is like a time to like not take excessive risk, uh, and just kind of like wait till you get like pullbacks into like decently good areas. Like I think Bitcoin's probably at like a decent area. I could probably drop another.

I mean, on the, on the MNAVs, like all of them are under 1 except for Sailor, who still has like a 1.35 to 1.55 considering how you measure it. But like if you look at the ETH ones and the Solana ones that are outstanding, they're all like under, I think as of this morning, they were like 0.9591. But they're also kind of dumping pretty hard right now. They're both down like 10% today. So their mNAV is probably like sub-0.9 now. What's like the, like how do you think about this? Like I know there's no forced unwind, but—

Yeah, that's the important thing, right? So I don't think there's a, I mean, I'm not super familiar with every single, you know, DAT and what their financing structures look like, but generally speaking, there isn't like a forced unwind or anything like that, right? I think, I mean, the way I think about it is like the selling pressure comes from like the expectation that these vehicles are tapped out. So then people kind of like, okay, well, like if people were buying to front run DApps for, you know, SOL or ETH or Bitcoin, and now the capacity for these DApps to issue shares or, you know, sell shares to, to, to buy the underlying no longer exists, the market might front run to the, you know, the opposite direction and, and kind of sell because the big buyers, uh, at least over the last couple months, are no longer buying. Like, that's, that's my main view of it. And it kind of like aligns with just like the seasonality, the liquidity. Like, it's all like a bunch of shit going on at the same time where it's like, eh, I'm not really in love with taking risk in any of these assets at this moment. Like, I have, you know, core positions that I'm not selling that I have from lower that I'll continue to build, um, dips. But like, yeah, I think it's more of a— and I'm curious, like, maybe what Yan or LTR thinks, but I think it's more of like an expectation around like their capacity to buy. And if, if there is no expectation that they can buy or they don't have that capacity, you probably go through this little bit of chop and, and pull back.

I think there's a lot of uncertainty just like in general equities, Bitcoin, crypto. And I think we've seen that with just like how much gold is exploding, because it's like, I think in general when people don't know what to do, they they kind of just buy gold and like, that's just kind of like, okay, well, at least I won't get, you know, hammered in gold really. Like, I can just kind of chill there. And I think like, until we see more certainty return to like, yeah, these DATs and whatnot, um, people just aren't really wanting to buy crypto right now, I think, because it's just like, yeah, there's a lot of uncertainty. And while Bitcoin does look fine, I think like just the fact that gold's ripping and that we saw equity all-time highs just means like, and Bitcoin is kind of just chopping, is like, I don't know, it's not always a good sign. I know it normally lags a little bit, but like you'd want to see Bitcoin, uh, go up here regardless of alts, in my opinion.

Yeah, I mean, on the debt stuff, no force unwind, but you know, to some degree there is an element of whoever acts first is going to benefit the most, right?

He sells first, sells best, is what you're saying?

Yeah, well, I mean, if you're doing the sell underlying and buy MNAV below 1 trade.

Buy your share. Yeah, the arb, right? Because that is like the trade, right?

For the—

that's like, yeah, they sell shares above MNAV of 1 and buy shares below. And how do they buy it? They sell the underlying. I don't know how many will do that. I don't think you— it really like it's that attractive to do it here. You know, if they have a further collapse, then maybe. But I mean, I guess the, the one bullish surprise catalyst that you haven't— you don't see— it's talked about a little bit but not too much— is, is basically, um, MicroStrategy, or Strategy, now qualifies for the S&P, but they, uh, the decision is, is by committee, and, and that won't happen. That actually happens tomorrow. Uh, we're recording Thursday, so if the decision's made Friday, I think markets both in terms of Bitcoin price and just, I think there's a Polymarket for it, but I don't know how much volume it's trading. There's like, the market's assigning a pretty low probability to it, rightfully so. It's, there's plenty of names that haven't really gotten in despite qualifying. So just ticking all the boxes generally isn't enough. So there's a world where, you know, I think the more likely path is it happens in December. And certainly that would be a massive catalyst just based on the amount of rebalancing that index funds and ETFs will have to do to add MicroStrategy to their holdings. You got to assume it's probably in the 11-figure range.

Yeah, that would be crazy bullish because then you just have also in perpetuity, essentially Saylor just gets to sell new issuance to retirees passively.

Yeah, there's a really cool chart, uh, some, some, uh, we can share in the notes. I forgot, it's, uh, some guy posted it. So basically somebody did an analysis of how much dry powder goes into stocks from 401 purchases on a daily basis. I think NVIDIA's $95 or $100 million a day of bid from 401s. Obviously they're the biggest, but just an indication of kind of the sheer size.

It's actually insane.

Yeah.

And so you think that probably is like a year-end type thing as opposed to tomorrow?

At best.

At best.

Yeah.

I mean, it would be pretty nuts if it happens tomorrow, but, uh, trading right now, it ain't looking like tomorrow.

Absolutely. I was literally pulling up the chart while you were talking. I'm like, oof.

Yeah, dude, it's horrible right now. People were saying like the insiders know, dude. It's like Might age poorly.

Yeah, I mean, he's selling, he's definitely selling shares too, right? Just based on, I think they bought back like, uh, $400, $500 million last week or so. And so, you know, that wasn't through prefs, that was from kind of going back on those rolls. So it's definitely appearing in the chart. But yeah, broadly it seems like everyone's kind of coalescing around a handful of names, which, which makes sense, right? It's actually probably healthier because it creates a better risk-adjusted opportunity to make cap, make, make profit if, you know, it's just concentration around quality. And it's kind of just been the, the revenue meta, which is just indication of kind of evolution of the space and, and to some degree the degree of froth we're seeing, right? It's not a very frothy market where everyone just kind of wants to— is not really taking flyers but rather taking lower upside safer bets.

Again, it's like we still haven't really changed the theme at all. You kind of just get like a select few assets every once in a while that do well, then everything else is kind of just like shitting the bed. And there's, there's like a good week there of Solana, and then Pump has kind of been the main performer now.

I think it's worth mentioning the, the Pokémon card stuff though, like this TCG stuff.

Yeah.

Have you been, have you used it?

I'm not a card guy, unfortunately. Well, I guess kind of fortunately, honestly. I don't really want to be, but, um, so like, I just didn't use it because honestly, I did not— because I didn't think it was good, just because I don't do Pokémon cards. I'm not really into them. But, uh, the KleptoKrypt like gacha thing was really big. I know Thread Guy had the, the guy on, um, yesterday. And the more interesting part about that is like the EV is positive for like the gacha. So it's like rewards players more. So like you're seeing a lot of guys like, like win in a sense.

And can you explain that a little bit more? I'm, I'm not sure everybody's gonna be super familiar with, with how that works.

So it's just like, you know, casino house always wins, you know, like, so if you're playing some sort of gacha or some sort of quote unquote random game, like on average you're gonna lose and that's like how they make their money. So like with this gacha, I don't know all the, the economics of like how they then turn a profit, but essentially like on average you're, you're gonna win more. And I think like probably they're doing this just for like a 0-to-1 strategy for Collector Crip, uh, for Collector Cards. That this is the platform I'm talking about, cards. Like, it's purely on the gacha, so I don't think it's on like the normal pack openings or whatever, but like, uh, in like the, the fun gambling vending machine gacha thing, uh, you're gonna win more often. And I think that's like been a really good driver of like their, their 0-to-1 on Twitter is like people are actually winning, they're posting about it, flywheel, more people join. Etc., etc. The issue with these TCGs that's popping up is there's no grails on them, quote unquote grails. And what I mean by that are like the Charizards that are worth, you know, $50,000, $100,000. Like, no one's pulling insane stuff. Like, the, the biggest thing I saw was like, oh, someone opened a $20 pack and got a $300 card, which is like cool, but in like crypto, that's like, okay, cool dude, you made, you know, $280. Let's go, bro. Like, that's just like not a big, uh, crypto mindset thing. So I don't know, it'll be interesting. Like, it's kind of funny that we've gone down the risk curve so much, we're literally at pure gambling right now. Like, we are just like gambling on Pokémon cards. Like, we're not even buying meme coins, we're just like, you know, at this point we're like, ah, crypto doesn't even matter anymore, let's just open Pokémon packs while we're bored. Uh, so I think it's kind of like a state of the market type of thing.

Yeah, I think it was good that Solana got that. If you think about like the there's basically two general purpose chains now that people use, and it's Solana and Base. Like Base has done a pretty good job of getting a lot of these kind of like social things. They've had like Zora, they had this football thing. Obviously they had Fronttech like a few years ago, but that was still like a good shot on goal. And so there's really like two, it's basically Solana versus Base for a lot of these kind of things. And I think Solana, I think Solana got kind of humbled. With like Hyperliquid and then the ETHDATS and then BASE getting some of these things over the past like few months. So I think it was good for them to like get one of these organic things come up again. And yeah, and then of course with like the whole like creator coin, uh, streaming stuff, like how do you guys feel about like the pump fund creator coins in streaming? Like, do you think those are going to have legs, or—

I think it's just hard because, yeah, as a streamer, LTR now, now that you're a streamer, what do you think about it?

Because like the, the meme coins on Solana haven't— with this whole pump rally, it's like it's mostly been pumped. Like people are just buying pump, they're not buying even like, like even like Fartcoin and other pump coins and other meme coins. It's just all going to pump, right?

Yeah, I think the issue with the streamer coins right now is just like there's not really a reason to own them. And what I mean by that is because the attention doesn't translate into bids. Like, Gainzy was blowing up on Twitter and like his stream coin was just flat at like 5 mil, like the entire time. Like, he was just like having all these clips blow up on Twitter about his blowup, about this and about that, and people just watched his stream and watched the clips. They didn't really buy the streamer token. It's like, until there's some sort of mechanism that's like very clear on, oh, Gainzy is blowing up on stream, we can buy this token to then profit off of that. Um, I just don't see like how that goes about. And also like, I think it's worth mentioning, and I know this brings about a lot, but like Twitch and Kick don't turn a profit, uh, as solo businesses. Like Twitch is subsidized by Amazon, Kick is subsidized by Stake. Like they're kind of marketing heads for, for other products, and they work very well at that. Like Twitch earns a lot from affiliate deals on Amazon, like through their, you know, whatever. But like, and then Kick obviously earns a lot for stake and whatnot. But so it'll be interesting to see how PumpFun like tries to turn this into a more profitable business model. I do think the PumpSwap stuff is cool because streamers don't have to sell any tokens to earn money. They can just basically earn fees by locking their PumpFun, their Pump, their tokens, their allocation into like a PumpSwap LP pool. And earn fees in perpetuity, but that like all requires volume, right? And so like that's kind of the issue, I think.

I think the parallel is— I mean, I agree that those businesses don't turn a profit, but I think that the business models here are pretty different in terms of what's driving the revenue. It's kind of like tapping into a more degenerate gambling-type universe. I think the concern you mentioned where it's not tied is a big one, right? Particularly because you need some runners to open up the ceiling, the kind of the universe of value here. And if you can have one or two that run for some reason, then it really fuels the kind of the loops in terms of the speculation in all the underlying ones. So like what they're doing basically right now is trying to find a lot of these organic streamers, right? So you either go top to the, to the Kai Cenats or something like that, and you pay them exorbitant amounts of money, or you try and go long tail. And so they're like sending out streaming kits to a lot of these, you know, up and coming or people that want to stream, they can reach out and get those. I think that's pretty interesting. And then the stories of what they make is actually, I think is decently compelling where, you know, there was a guy who posted a thread about how he's a successful streamer. I forget if it was on Twitch or Kick, but basically he tried to start from zero and just couldn't do it. He tried, you know, it's like really, really difficult to get any form of following. Ludwig, right? Yeah, yeah, yeah. And so, you know, that's pretty bearish for long tail streamers on those platforms. Whereas you have, you know, people that will come on here and they'll make $300 on the, on the, on the, the worst end, and some, some guys are making, you know, 4 figures in, in a matter of hours. And so, um, I agree, it's like it needs some more tie-in to be sustainable, but there's just this long tail of people. And then there's a world where it kind of evolves into what happened on, um, on, on in Black Mirror, right? Where it's like, pay me to pull out my fingernails and whatever else is in between. And so there's that world too. I think that'll probably get blocked by—

I feel like we already had a bit of that world.

Yeah, we did.

When they first introduced streaming, they had to take it down.

Like, it's funny because when they first— yeah, when they first did streaming, everybody was like, oh, this is not going to go well. And then it did not go well, but really bad. But like the, what the streaming is now, I think makes a lot of sense. And to be completely honest with you, like I've always shaked— I've never wanted to like myself launch a token. I've always stayed away from stuff like this. I've never launched a token. Um, I'm not gonna do it, but like, there is a part of me that is kind of enticed by pump streaming. There is like— no, but there is a small part of me that's like, you know, the, the main issue I have is just like, what happens when I stop streaming? It's just like, well, my token goes to zero. And that's like, I don't like the eventual kind of like rug in that sense. But I do think the whole, you can just lock your token up or like the creator fees. If you're a small account or a small streamer, you know, you're trying to like make it, it is pretty enticing. Like especially as more people do it, the more people that do it, the more kind of like de-risked it'll be from like a social perception. Like man, if you think back, like 3 years ago what people used to think was like unethical to like—

if you launched a token like 2 cycles ago, you were like excommunicated from crypto Twitter.

I saw a hilarious post.

Even a ref link was like—

yeah, ref links were super frowned upon. And now you got—

they're still kind of— yeah, yeah.

I mean, relative to what other people are doing these days, it's like saintly behavior almost.

He was like, uh, he, uh, quote tweeted the Mitch launch. He's like, because Mitch had launched like 26 tokens on PumpFun, he's like, I would have gotten crucified back in 2016 if I had launched like 26 tokens. It was just funny because we have like, definitely like everything is becoming more and more normal. Um, but yeah, I agree with Cedrus's points. Like there is like that element of on Twitch and Kick, like you, you pay your subscription, right? And that's like time bound for a month, 3 months or whatever. So there's like an element of, oh, if the streamer stops streaming, like I'm I'm almost protected in a sense, because like I've already paid 3 months or whatever. Whereas like, if your streamer stops streaming, or if Gainzy sells 99% of his tokens—

Yeah, but the difference is you don't have to pay to watch, right?

So yeah, so there's that element. And then it's the fact that, you know, it would be really bad. It's the whole— you don't have to sell as a streamer, right? It's just like nothing spoils the meta faster than a few streamers pumping this thing up and then just dumping and then leaving, right? And then everyone just leaves. And you Here, if you have this, you know, not a forced lockup, but an enforced lockup and monetization through activity, then there is no like equity-like exit rug that they can perform that just ruins everything. It's my fees go down because I stopped streaming. And yes, the speculative people are going to lose, but ultimately they were never sold this vision of like that, that this is going to go on forever. And, and that I, I think it's just like the lack of exit equity rug is the big one.

I think, I think the way you need to look at it if you're buying these streamer tokens is like what I— a lot of people donate to streamers and streamers and stuff on Twitch and all these other platforms, and that's— or like they buy the membership and that's literally money that you don't get back ever again, right? Whereas with the token Theoretic— theoretically you could get some money back or you could even make money, right? Obviously most people buying these, like, listen, I bought some of these streamer tokens. Like, am I doing it? Cause I want to donate to them? No, it's cause like, I think they might go up a lot. Right. But there is, it's kind of like, it just changes the model from the— I think it's the expectations. That's the hard thing. It's the expectations of people. If they looked at it like, oh, I would have just been paying for a membership anyways. And this money is, is, would've been gone anyways. And now I, I just get upside, then that's good. If they're looking at it like this is like a fundamental investment and like now I'm gonna be pissed at, like so many people were pissed at Gainsy and like I get it because he full stacked like his whole, I was, I was literally, I literally had the chart up on my screen cuz I was looking at it cuz I mean I do own Gainsy, like he literally dumped on me. And, uh, I was like, wait, I was like, I was like trying to chat. I was like, where's the decimal? I didn't know if it pumped or dumped, right?

Zoom out.

Because that was like—

to his credit, but, uh, there is like a sell 100% button on the— wow, which is horrible. Like, I'm sorry, it's so bad. Like, if you're the dev, there's literally a giant red button that's like sell 100%. You just click it and it automatically does it.

There's no confirmation. No, there's not.

So like, there is a realm. Yeah, literally full stack.

Because like, he accidentally like clicked it and people didn't realize that the app has that. And so like if you're the dev of these streamer coins, there needs to be like, are you sure you want to full stack your entire thing? But, uh, no, I think the funnier part was like the, the wallet that somehow bought like $40 at like the pico bottom and sold like $400K profit. And then people are like, okay, who is that now?

I didn't realize it pumped $100. I guess it like went to zero.

It went to like 12K market cap.

The chart, it literally has negative It has a negative number. I don't know how that— the chart that I posted in the chat has— it literally goes—

I'm guessing.

Yeah, I literally paid to get out of that. Oh, that's so good. But no, because I saw it went from like, it was like 0.005 and it went to like 0.001. I was like, wait, is that 0.01 or 0.00? Like, I wasn't sure if it had like totally pumped or dumped. And then I go and look at the chart and I'm like, Oh wow, Gainsy definitely— there's only one way this could happen is that Gainsy sold everything, 80% of the supply. And then I go to Twitter and it's just like, yeah, uh, this one's gonna cost me, isn't it?

I probably won't buy any of these things, to be honest. Um, but, but I mean, as, as it stands today, that can obviously change based on stuff. Uh, I just look at them like— I think, I think, uh, Sederis's framing of it makes the most sense, at least from like a buyer's perspective. It's like What do you expect it like, like, what are the, like, kind of like expectations going in, right? Like, would this have been a donation to like, in, in like on another platform, like, would it have been a donation? You don't get any money back. It's just paid money. So like, if you kind of take that same expectation for these tokens, like, you're probably not going to be too upset. It also probably helps you size it better based on, you know, that expectation. But I just like—

it's like two orders of magnitude different though, what you donate to the stream and what you pay.

Yeah, yeah, that's the thing. It's like I would never donate Gainzy money or like thousands of dollars either.

I think the fundamental issue is just like you need a reason to own these and like—

yeah, because that's— it's just amazing.

I think what they can do is—

that's all—

there's a world— so the same way they had that fund where they tied, you know, to the top 5 coins, they probably need to allocate a portion of revenue to buy back the, the highest viewed streams. So it's not on a market cap basis, on a stream basis, and then just ensure that like, you know, it can't be botted.

That's another thing for asking me like, how can I automatically see all the streamer coins? I'm like, you can't because there's nothing in the metadata or the API that differentiates like a streamer coin from a normal coin. Like, you, if you're the dev of any pump fund coin right now, you can go and stream on it which is cool, right? Because like, uh, Mike Dudas did that. Like, he made this M. Dudas coin like 3, 4 months ago, and then he finally like streamed on it, and that was cool. But like, there needs to be some form of like in the PumpFun, you know, website API or whatever where you can pull like, these are the top 10 streamer coins right now by market cap or by viewers. And like, I feel like that's, that's a pretty low-hanging fruit that they can do and integrate, and I think that would be pretty good. But I agree with you, like, they need some sort of like Yeah, if you're a top 10 streamer, or maybe it's like, I don't know, like quality hours streamed, or yeah, there's a lot of cool things.

Uh, what do you guys think about like— so it's kind of similar to like the Time.fun thing, right? Like where you can like buy minutes. Like that, like to me seems like— I wouldn't buy those either, preface. Um, but at least there's like something attached to the minutes or the token or whatever, right? Like for like Ansem, for example, right? I think he's like got one of like the higher priced Minutes or whatever they're called. And at least like you kind of like get something out of that, right? Like you can ask him a question, maybe send him a CA that he likes and he talks about it and then that go like, right? Like there's actually something you can like get out of that versus like these tokens. Whereas like right now there's no mechanism to like, no mechanism in place that like Jan was kind of describing. So like, what do you guys think about like those versus like—

that's actually, that's actually one, the one that I've been closest to doing. And I have the TimeFund guys DM me a few times to get me to do it. Because yeah, you feel the thing, this is the thing. I want—

if they don't respond, like you get your money back, right?

Yeah. It's like, I want to like participate more in some of these like experiments and not be like totally hands off. I just, you know, I didn't do Friend.Tech cause like I didn't want to launch a Friend.Tech token and like all this stuff. Right. And so I do think TimeFund. Has the, yeah, probably the best model. At the end of the day though, you still have like a token with your name that has like a market cap.

That's a minute, bro.

But I don't think they're going to really get pumped up that much, right? Like Toleez is, is like, I think Toleez timed off on token is like a million dollar market cap. I don't know what Ansem's is, but I don't think they go up too much because you are like using it. It is like a perishable.

Yeah, but like at a certain point, isn't that just like WAP or OnlyFans or like, I guess just on crypto rails? Like, yeah, there are some cool mechanisms, but I think like there's almost a sort of like mental, mental go around, if you will. That's like, this is, oh, this is crypto, but it's like, I don't know, it's like we've seen this all before. Like you can do this on many other platforms and I do like TimedOutFun. I think that the devs are sharp and Ansem's done some cool stuff on that. He's made, he posted the other day, he made like $100K or stuff so far. And like if he's providing people with like some, some cool knowledge or whatnot, I think that's like a great thing. But yeah, it's like, I don't know.

Yeah, I think it's a cool model. It also seems like they're doing something with Time.fun. I've seen everyone just posting these pink images on Twitter.

Oh, that's for Indonesia, I'm pretty sure. Uh, the pink squares for the—

get your flight.

Okay. I thought it was a timed-out one.

Yeah, yeah, it's, uh, the new color of the— the— okay, no, that's a geopolitical thing, Sutterus.

Okay, that's the for you tab, dude.

Yeah, no, no, it's, it's a good topic though because like, uh, Indonesia is undergoing basically like almost a civil war right now. But, uh, basically the Indonesian leader flew to China and then people are like, oh no, uh, in Indonesia because they obviously don't want to be a communist country. And so like pink is like the new protest color with a lot of the women there and they're all wearing pink in the protests. And so like people are posting a pink square to like, you know, like—

I just think this was a crypto thing.

Wow. I think it's just Timed Up Fun. I literally thought everybody was like, why is everyone chilling?

Timed Up Fun? Who is this? Berlin?

Yeah, I'm in a bit too much of a bubble.

It's fine.

Um, but yeah, I don't know. There's, but there's, yeah, there's, it's funny. We've had so many different flavors of these creator type things.

One will eventually catch on. Like it, it's very clear there, there's an app. There's at least some kind of appetite for, for this. Um, I'm just like, nothing that's come out has been like a clear no, no, no brainer for me at least. Um, but there's, there's certainly an appetite for this type of thing. Like it's, it's quite clear. Like I think FriendTech like kind of showed the appetite there. And then I think it's just kind of about iterating around, um, some of the value mechanisms that Jan was talking about and just like making it, I don't know. There's certainly an appetite. Like if, if you can't see that, I think it's, it's, it's something that I'm keeping an eye out. Like it's one of the, like when, when, when somebody kind of figures something out, it's going to run so hard.

Yeah.

So I'm just like kind of biding my time and waiting and not trying to get chopped up with all of the interim iterations.

Crypto rails make sense for this sort of thing. I mean, like the rake that Twitch, that OnlyFans, that like all of these creator platforms take is absurd. It's kind of like MasterCard or Visa fees. Like it's just an absurd take. Uh, it's kind of like the App Store, the Apple App Store. So it's like Crypto Rails definitely makes sense for this sort of thing if you can give more to the creator, but then also earn like a nice fee for yourself without— you can basically undercut everything else. But like, I think that 0 to 1 of onboarding the creators is going to be hard. But, but I agree with like how PunkBun's doing it. I think like, like to Jan's point, like going bottom up is much better than trying to like attract Tyson at like— I remember back in the day, It was big when Ninja, you know, the number one Fortnite streamer, he got like this huge contract from YouTube to go over to YouTube streaming. And like, he lost like all of his viewers. And like, because people just like Twitch better than YouTube, they didn't want to watch YouTube streaming. And so like, they didn't really care that Ninja moved. They were just like, whatever. So like, I think having these like pump fund native creators is going to be— is going to be much better than just like trying to bribe some Twitch streamer to come over to PumpFund for sure.

Yeah, ideally it kind of just functions as organic marketing, right? Uh, wait, he made what? And then that just goes viral.

What do you guys think of— when's Plasma's TG? Is it this month?

It's got to be soon.

We're LibriFi. I mean, I think— isn't it still trading pre-markets?

Yeah, yeah, but it's been trading pre-markets for like a bit now.

Yeah, I mean, the actual— I mean, do you think these— I mean, people were like Plasma and World Liberty are going to be like big liquidity drains over the next like month. I think it's— World Liberty is not that at this point. The chart liquidity drain on it, it still, it still has like a massive market cap, but it doesn't really seem like there's a bid there in liquid markets, which makes sense. People are up so much on that.

I mean, it's doing a decent amount of volume.

Right.

So, I mean, it's tough to say how much that's market makers, but versus just organic bids that would have gone elsewhere.

I think people are just getting Trump fatigue. Like, he's got Alt5, he's got the New American Bitcoin Company, they've got World Liberty 5, they've got USD1, which is like kind of the World Liberty 5. They got Trump Coin, Melania. Like, there's just so many things that are liquid now that are like Trump family stuff, and it's just like, oh my gosh, like If World Liberty Fire was like the only thing, I think it would absolutely rip. But like, I think we've just been so fatigued with it at this point that it's like Eric Trump is just the boy who cries wolf and it's just like, oh, I don't want to hear from you ever again, please.

Yeah. I mean, it seems like there's a lot more activity from the kids, right? Like Trump is just Trump Coin and then it's the kids that are running all the other stuff.

Trump has no idea what's going on with any of these things.

I think he does, though, because like literally they have like $5 billion in crypto now. Like they've extracted— like there was a number the other day that like alone own from World Liberty FI, like, they're up to over like plus $5 billion in the crypto markets alone. And like, it's relatively new, so they've just come in taking like $5 billion of our things and just like, woohoo. So I think Trump would notice like a $5 billion net worth increase. But, uh, yeah, is that—

wait, is that $5 billion in, in—

yeah, that's not like an actual—

part of it is, but I think a lot of the other stuff is the, uh, the Bitcoin and then the ETH and then a lot of the, the reserves and stuff. But still, it is still like absurd.

Yeah, I'm all for grifting in equity markets, right? Because it doesn't cannibalize our bid.

Exactly. Yeah, go do the Alt5 stuff and pump our bags while you're doing it, like sure. But like the second you launch this World Liberty Fund, people get wrecked, bro. Like, I don't know.

I, I think I saw that they like, they didn't end up giving Aave anything.

They did or did not?

Did not. I think they were supposed to give like 2.5% of supply or something and they just said no.

Yeah, more than that. I think it was like 7% or something because it is like an AAVE fork, if I'm not mistaken. And so like, I think they were going to give AAVE like a kind of grant thing and like one of them publicly tweeted about it and then another like quote tweeted it or like Stani or someone from AAVE. Forgive me if I'm wrong. I think tweeted that it was like they were getting a stake and then some random dev from World Liberty 5 had like a Ghibli, Ghibli PFP and people thought it was like a fake account was like, no, this is false. And his bio said like World Liberty 5 team. And then so like everyone was scrambling about that. But no, I don't think they end up got anything.

Damn, it's brutal. I think, I think LTR, you just also posted that tweet about the the Tempo thing that, uh, that Matt introduced on Twitter, right? So more of a payment stablecoin type thing. Um, I don't know, it just seems like very clear that like the stablecoin narrative is the, um, at least for me, like I'm just thinking of like, like how do I want to be like allocated at this point in the cycle?

Um, I think you, you're seeing more people just want stuff that makes money, right? I know you're probably going to go to there. That's where you were going with that. But it's like, yeah, even these stablecoin L1s, it's like, dude, Plasma, it's trading at like $6 billion fully diluted. I mean, that— are people going to meme it to like $30? Maybe. I don't know. But still, it's like, on a fundamental basis, it really has no business being worth that much.

I think a lot of these L1s end up not being a liquid bet though. Like, I think Stripe and Robinhood's is pretty much just like backend.

Yeah. Like people, yeah. Like Stripe's, this is the thing. People are always like, oh, Cosmos is right because everyone's launching at once. Right. Cosmos is right about like what companies like want to do. They're not, they were never right about like what users want. Right. And this has been like the problem in crypto doing like AppChain thesis is that no user wants it. But yes, for like stuff like Stripe, I mean, people probably aren't even going to be using Stripe's blockchain, right? It's just going to be, they're going to be using the Stripe app. And it's just going to be their backend rails that are kind of doing this. I think stuff like that is completely fine. You're seeing, you know, there's all these— I think some of the like dumbest arguments on CT right now are like, which chain is going to be like the institutional chain, right? And you're basically seeing, you're seeing everything happen, right? You're seeing, you're seeing the, the Plasma, this is the, which is kind of like Tether, uh, but you're seeing like Stripe, launched their own one. Circle launched their own L1. Robinhood does doing the L2 route. Galaxy is like tokenizing their shares on Solana for like certain reasons, right? And so you're kind of just going to see a lot of these different architectures or like decisions come out. And it really just all depends on what exactly this like institution wants to do, right? Um, and so I think this whole— yeah, I don't know, I find this whole debate to be kind of like mind-numbing because you're kind of seeing people just do everything at this point.

Yeah, I agree.

I think like people discount that like companies are going to do what's best for their margins, and like stablecoins do represent better margins on the bottom line, like if you can settle in stablecoins and not have to pay all the fees and stuff. So it's like, but that doesn't mean that they're going to drive value to like our coins. It could just mean, hey, they have their own private clearing chain where they do everything on the back end and they replace their back end with Crypto Rails. But maybe that doesn't benefit any like liquid tradable assets besides like company equity at that point, which is like fine because I still think it's adoption. Like it's still going to lead to to more second-order effects on like other stuff getting bid. But like on the whole, I think like if you're a company and you see that like on-chain rails can provide better margins or better business, like why would you want some Solana degenerate person to start making like Robinhood with a hat coin on your chain? And then like a bunch of degens start trading that on your chain, which like I think Robinhood chain is eventually going to become more permissionless if I remember what AJ Warner said. About the Stylus chain. Um, but like, yeah, I think there's like Paxos, for instance. They have like a private Ethereum L2 chain where they do like their gold clearing for their like real-world gold and their on-chain gold. There's like a whole chain that's literally whitelisted for Paxos to be private. Um, so like that's an interesting example of like using on-chain rails for like really real-world use cases that are very useful to crypto. Like it's amazing that we can trade, you know, gold on-chain with Paxos and it's like legit backed. Um, but that doesn't mean that we need to like be on Paxos chain and like, you know, using all the Paxos chain stuff or trading meme coins on Paxos chain. So like, I think more and more stuff is going to look like that. And I honestly think that's both.

Yeah. Like, I think that the, the, the chains that are going to be successful are the ones that just get like the crypto-native use cases and like the crypto-native builders. And because all this institutional stuff, is not going to be very value creative to any of like the crypto native tokens or chains. Right. And so that's kind of what you're trying to win. You're trying to win like the social stuff, the like the trading, the perps, all of this. And yeah, Paxos will do their accounting on their private chain and Stripe will do their accounting on their private chain. None of these things drive any value to any crypto token. They just make their business better and like, that's fine. But I really think that if you're betting on like an L1 token or like an L2 or whatever, it's really like how many of like the crypto native products and like builders can you really win? That's what's going to like really move the needle to me.

Of all these types of institutional chains, LTR, this is something you've kind of been, I would say, front-running for a while now. It's something you've been talking about for months, uh, at this point. What are you like most excited for, like Kraken InkChain type stuff? Like, what are you like most interested by?

Well, I mean, like, I think the hard part is like, yeah, there's not really a liquid bet, right? So it's like I can be the most excited about something but have no liquid profit.

Well, yeah, maybe from like a liquid bet perspective and just like an in-general interest type of perspective.

I think a liquid bet perspective, I think we've kind of already seen it with ETH. Like, honestly, like, I think ETH is clear in a way. Like, that's what Securitize mostly uses, and that's BlackRock's chain. BlackRock has taken a big interest in ETH, and I think, like, EVM is just robust. And there's, like, a reason Robinhood is using Arbitrum L2, and there's a reason, like, Mantle and stuff are using Optimism rollups, is that EVM is proven, right? So there's a big risk of, like, Stripe making their own L1 versus just, like, forking Ethereum, which is open source and, like, already, like, pretty robust, right? And I think we've seen that, like, a lot of companies don't maybe want to taste— take that risk of building something from the ground up and, God forbid, having some sort of irrevocable hack from Lazarus or whatever. It's like, I think ETH has been like a liquid bet. I think Solana is another liquid bet. I mean, we're seeing a lot of ex-stocks and tokenization appear there, and I think that's only going to continue. So I think your liquid bets are pretty simple. Like, they're just going to be the main two coins we already have and that have already performed thuslike. I think that's what I'm excited about is, first of all, I think credit is going to come on-chain more and more. I think a lot of like credit in banks is, is pretty bureaucratic and like not robust, but like things like 3Chain where you have your credit score, uh, yeah, ZKVerify, and then you can borrow against your credit on-chain with USDC. There's a couple other things. There's this new thing, SmackBit, across my Dash that is an on-chain clearinghouse for credit, for like debt, which is really cool because like right now clearinghouses IRL are like really slow, that they're all humans, they're controlled by the banks, whereas like really you could just do it with smart contracts pretty easily on-chain with ZK again. And that goes kind of to my ZK-TLS thing. So like, that's another thing I think credit's going to be really changed by OnchainRails. And then just payments, like I'm sure we've all experienced going into a local like bodega convenience store and you don't have cash on you and you're buying like one energy drink for $2, but it doesn't take, but the bodega on the little like payment processor card thing, it says, uh, we don't accept card under $5. And they do that because of like Visa, MasterCard, and those kind of transactions, and the fees they create are too much to where it's not worth selling the product. So you have to pay cash under $5, whereas like if you use stablecoins, man, uh, that, you know, you pretty much could eliminate that middleman. And like, I, I akin it to— I don't know if you guys remember when that company Square became really popular and like Um, the retail days in like 2016, you basically plugged it into your phone charger outlet and it was this little square and you could swipe your credit card and debit card in it. That became really popular. That company, like, I forget, they got bought out for a ton of money. But like, stuff like that I think is coming to like stablecoins because it fundamentally eliminates the middleman and it just makes things easier. It makes your bottom line better, makes your profit margins better. It's like, so I think that's the things we see. And so I was saying to someone today, I was like I think fundamentally, if you're an investor, the things you want to look for are on-chain rails and fintech solutions that just make bottom lines and margins and friction better. Um, so maybe it's not as exciting, but I think it's going to change a lot for the better.

Do we think Tom Lee goes on Rogan and pumps ETH to $5K?

Is he doing that? Is this just a rumor?

I don't know.

I mean, I, I can't, I don't think there's any confirmation either way yet.

I know that people are gonna say I'm like a hater or whatever, but I just like, I don't know how much good he, he, I just don't find his, his explanations compelling. And, and this is because I'm somebody that like works in this industry 24/7, and maybe what he says is like compelling to outsiders, but it's kind of hard to like, you go past the surface level of, of what he's saying and look into it and it's like, not— I mean, he had this video the other day about how like ETH should 54x again because of 54x last time. And it's like, dude, it's like, come on, man. Like, hell yeah. That's just like, he has bullish, but it's, it's, it's like, it just, it's, I don't know, 54x.

Yeah.

Just this PTSD of like Do Kwon and like some Terra guys. Like, I think there's a level of like just absolute insanity bull posting that's like, this is like, I don't know. But so I agree, I don't know if he's like entirely healthy. I think especially to us crypto natives, we're very wary of him. But like, I mean, he's pumped ETH so far, so it's like, if, you know, if I can sell ETH for more than $4,000, I'm, I'm pretty happy. I'm a happy man.

Yeah, I guess it's just like, how much further can he do it with like his, his—

yeah, I mean, right, he needs the dApps to do it, and if that's— can't buy because they can't.

I mean, what's ETH's market cap now? Like $180 billion?

It's like $500.

$500? Isn't it like $400 or $500?

Did you say $180?

I don't even know what I said. No, I don't want to go down.

Don't quote me.

Don't quote me. Funny thing is, if like, if, if the underlying pumps and the DApps don't pump, the MNAV gets even more smoked.

I didn't even think about that.

But yeah, no, I think like ETH is just such a tough spot because the market cap is so high and it's not Bitcoin.

And so you're just like, uh, like, you know, there's a level of like, I don't know, basically you believe that there's going to be multiple store values and ETH is one. And like, that's it. I find like debating ETH is kind of like a waste of time in this regard.

The moment you're trading silver, you're like the most degenerate person alive. Like there's some quote about trading silver that's hilarious. Like, you know, you've reached peak levels of degeneracy when you're like charting and trading silver instead of gold. So it's like, I don't know.

You mean Litecoin?

When I look at ETH, right? Like, I don't know, just so like, yeah, it's just so tough. It's $500 billion. Like, how much more could— I just rather own SOL now at this point.

Yeah, it going— I mean, getting the bid is good. Right. Like the higher ETH goes, the better for just everything else because we've kind of been in this Bitcoin sucks all the energy out of the market for a long time.

So regardless, Bitcoin, bro, it would have so much energy for the market, but nobody buys it anymore.

There is that hyper liquid ETH BTC whale, right? Hasn't he sold like how many billions of Bitcoin?

Is he like $5 billion or something like $3 to $5 billion?

Stream yesterday. Because that was like a good example of like more on-chain stuff because he used Hyperunit and Hyperliquid, which is like really interesting.

Like, what do you think about that? I mean, it's not like—

I think it's kind of crazy behavior from someone who's been in Bitcoin for that long, hold— held so much of it, and at $500 billion ETH decided to rotate into ETH.

Yeah, I just like, I'm always wary of that kind of stuff because it's like, I think we've seen time and time again that like these insiders on Hyperliquid just turn out to be the biggest degenerates ever. And then it's like, I feel like we do this like every couple months, which like he could totally be someone huge or it could be a DAT or something. But like, I don't know how much signal there is in that, like honestly, unless we like specifically know who it is.

A DAT?

Yeah, a DAT.

No, no, I know, but like BTC-based. I mean, I don't think any BTC DApps—

no, I meant like one, like he's making an ETH one, like he's proactively gonna make one. And so that's gonna be a part of an ETH treasury is like what I think a lot of people maybe thought is that like he sold all this BTC and it's going to be part of some ETH treasury or something. Um, I think was like the prevailing thing because it was just like billions, which is like incredibly odd.

But like, you think it's hard though, because people know like how much left you have to bid and everything.

Yeah, it's like, and then people, and then you think like, well, if he was making a treasury, why wouldn't he just execute it like not on like something like that where it's like very public? It's like if you're doing a treasury and you're just, you could, you know, sell your BTC much, much easier probably at a Sailor to whoever rather than just like nuking it on Hyperlipid.

Yeah, I think that there's a lot of people that were just early and have like way too much money to know what to do with. And maybe this person has no way to actually exit that money anywhere. Right. And so they just, I always thought like, this is what, you know, North Korea would like steal hundreds of millions and just kind of just start pumping random shit on chain, you know, like you never know. It could just be somebody having fun.

Like, honestly, I think the fact that he deposited, um, on native Bitcoin means he owns like some random Bitcoin wallet on his browser, probably, or Ledger. Sent it to Hyper Unit and then just started nuking all on chain. Like, the fact that it's all on chain makes me think, yeah, it's probably just like some random person. Maybe he was, you know, on an ayahuasca bender and he bought when he was like drugged out and whatever, and then held it all this way.

Came back 10 years later with—

yeah, came back from his like 10 years later on CNBC and he's like, oh fuck, I gotta rotate this.

He saw Tom Lee, 54. 4X.

I want a trillion dollars.

He fell into the shill, bro. He's getting the logo tattooed.

I mean, there's just a level of— there's a level of price targets that I just don't think are helpful. Like, when you're saying that, like, ETH is going to be like $700K, it's like, dude, what would the market—

I mean, like, that's the only way you can get it to, like, pump to $8K. If you say it's going to be $12K, nobody's going to pump it to $8K.

Well, I think once you start like putting some of these, especially ETH, that's like a very distributed— like it's not a cornered asset like XRP where it's like the market cap and the fully diluted value are like less specific, right? Like ETH is, is pretty well like distributed, I would say. So like I think the market cap and the FDV here kind of like Bitcoin absolutely matter as far as like price target-wise. It's like, yeah, it's like, then you start, you know, comparing. Like, I remember I compared like ETH to like OpenAI, and you're like, would you rather own OpenAI or ETH? And it's like, well, I think that's a, that's a pretty easy long on one of those.

And it's like, yeah, I think a really good question with these two is like, to tell, to tell how much of like a monetary premium there is in the asset you're buying is like, would you own 100% of it, right? Because you would 100% own 100% of Apple. You'd be like, great, right? Um, would you own 100% of Bitcoin? Like, fuck no, right? Nobody would want to own 100% of Bitcoin. Uh, and like, you do this for ETH, would you want to own 100% of ETH? Like, no, right? Um, you get to something like hyper liquid, it's like, maybe, you know, you're now you're starting to like actually talk about something that is generating like positive Cash flow.

Yeah.

It's like the difference between like a currency and an equity, right? Like if you own 100% of money, of a money or a currency, then it's valued to no one except you. Basically it's worthless. Whereas like if you owned 100% of a business, you're basically just a private company. And then like if you're making profits or if you have some sort of like demand for something you make or provide, then yeah.

See, I don't know. Like I think if people were like bullposting ETH to $20K, it's like that's like a better pitch to do because that's basically what Bitcoin's current market cap is.

All right, let's be real, the foundation's gonna sell a massive stack.

It already did, bro. Like, did you not see they're selling like 10K?

They have more.

10K is like nothing compared to—

they got more.

The funny thing is someone brought up the amazing point of like, what if they funded their Ethereum Foundation R&D grants with— hear me out— calls instead of USD. Like, why do we have to sell the ETH to USD and then give it to the R&D for Ethereum?

They're just going to sell it anyways. But what they should do—

sell it—

what they look like, it was covered calls.

Yeah, covered calls. But like, if you were the Ethereum Foundation, I'd rather get licked. The projects I give—

you don't get licked on covered calls, you just sell. You get blown the fuck out, but then they have no treasury left.

No, you don't.

Like, no, they just have to give away all their ETH.

No, man, if you know you're going to sell 10K ETH, you write covered calls for 10K. I mean, you get the extra premium and then if it hits it, you sell it. And if not, you still sell it because you want to sell it after.

It's like, I don't even know if like you probably get $10 for a 10K ETH. What would you pay for it?

No, you would, you would say you would write them pretty close to the money because you're going to sell it anyways. So you want a higher premium.

That's what I mean. Then like it pumps and then you have no more treasury, but you got some cash.

No, you just do the amount you were going to sell anyways. You're going to sell options on 10K ETH and then you just get extra yield for free, basically.

I think the point I was saying is just like, I think it's damaging that the Ethereum Foundation is selling directly. Like, if they gave ETH to some research grant dev and then he—

and then they sold it for USD, yeah, it's different.

Yeah, it's like, well, then you can just— whereas like, if it's literally Vitalik selling, that's like dev selling. Like, I don't know, that's—

why don't they use like Why don't they use some like ETH DeFi and, you know, do some cool stuff with that?

And no, I don't agree with borrowing against your ETH because that's like how eventually they're just going to get blown the fuck up at some point. Like, or you just have a smart contract thing, which is like, why are you not going to 57x?

So they're not going to do that, dude.

They should borrow against all of their ETH.

Yeah.

And then just buy more ETH.

Yeah, it's free money.

Use that to buy ETH calls.

Can you imagine how much they'd be up if the 54x— would Vitalik be the richest man in the world? Easily.

Uh, you gotta think he's worth like a billion, so no, actually no, no, he wouldn't. He'd be worth like 55 or so.

Okay, so we gotta raise our price targets. Yeah, 100x ETH.

SAILOR is going to be one of them for sure.

50 trillion. Is there a single $50 trillion asset in the world? No, no, the biggest is gold, right? It's like 25.

Yeah, I think there's like, you know, there's some like, you know, new—

you're gonna bull post, man, you got to come up with some like better realistic bull post targets.

I agree, there's an article.

Settle on like 16-20K, that's a good one. Go with like 16.

Only you should just like study.

I just— oh man, that guy's still like, you see any tweet about anything and you still just see him like there. You'd be better off just holding SPX.

It can be about anything.

It can literally be about anything. I'm pretty sure he replied to Bryan Johnson's angel investment in Stable with that.

It's like, the thing is though, okay, his are so absurd, like SPX, the meme coin flipping the stock market, that it's like everyone knows it's like a farce. So then it's just kind of funny. Like, I don't know. Whereas like, I think Tom Lee kind of generally believes, and some people genuinely believe that like ETH could 54x, and then it's like, that's true.

Bro, I, man, there was this, there was this episode they had the Black, the former BlackRock guy who went on and he, he got hired by some treasury company and he's like, for every dollar that's Ethereum, $2 should go to the price of ETH. And it's like, what the fuck are you talking about? Like, this is hilarious. Like the most nonsensical. The problem is that these, these guys get I mean, dude, Tom Lee stands to make like over a billion dollars from this. Of course he's going to try as hard as he can to like pump it up as much as he wants. Like he has this insane options package that's like, so do all these spokespeople, right? So will the people, I'm assuming on a lot of the Solana ones and stuff too, right? So you need to like try. I don't know, man. I just, I am not one of these people who is like religious about this stuff. And so I think I try to stay realistic about—

Do you think we can get a resurgence above 1 on the MNAVs on some of these, or do you think they're stuck? I mean, the more of them that come out, the harder it's going to be.

Yeah. What's it like? What happens? Are they going to consolidate? I guess it's like—

I don't see how they don't. I don't see how it doesn't consolidate. Like, because there will be a period of time where like there will be at some point right? Next month, 6 months, a year. Like when you go into like a bear market type situation and things just like bleed out for, you know, 6, 12, 24 months, whatever it is. And I don't see how these DApps just exist in perpetuity in an environment like that. It'll probably just be like a, you know, like just like a consolidation. Like Saylor probably goes and buys out a bunch of the, um, Bitcoin DApps because SAILOR probably survives, you know, probably 1 or 2, 3 ETH that survive. Same with SOL or whatever. And you just like get consolidation that way, right? Like, I don't— again, I don't think they're going to go anywhere while the market's like still, you know, going up and bullish. But I don't see how we have dozens of these things exist if the market you know, goes into a bear market, which we will get. Like, there's no question about that. It's just a matter of where there's no more cycles.

They should dump all their stock and then burn all the coins and then just like, and then leave the face of the earth.

That's how you pump the, the MNAV. I mean, I know, yeah, it's like Tom Lee can pump them now. Just start fucking full stacking your ETH.

Foundation, man. Like they already basically—

the thing is, the thing is what's tough with this is like the whole narrative of it, right? Like once you start doing that, uh, yeah. And it could get pretty nasty if then all of them start doing it too. That's the— you could get a bit of a cascade.

I mean, the bid disappears.

Well, yeah, right. You have to assume a lot of the bid besides them actually being a bid has been people bidding because they know they're going to bid.

So if they have a worse interesting point though, is like how many people buying besides Master, like these, these other DAT stocks, like I feel like they're mostly just crypto people. Like I have, yeah, because these ones don't have the debt, which is kind of like the big unlock for, yeah, I have literal like Solana trenching chats that were like buying 50K shitters the other day and now they're buying DATs and like sharing Yahoo Finance links. And I'm like, guys, what are we doing? Like, I don't know, like there's a level of like Are any like normal stock market people buying these?

I mean, I don't know when this thing gets added to the—

I did a poll like, I did a poll like a month or so ago and I think it was like 15% of people had bought them on the public markets, which is pretty high to my opinion. In my opinion, that's when the NAVs were like 1.5 or so.

So I think they onboarded— I think the DATs onboarded more crypto people to brokerage accounts. And then the opposite, people to crypto, like 100%.

100%. Vampire attack.

What do you mean?

This just like, I don't have private keys. This just like takes every, keeps everything for me.

Yeah.

That's so nice. What a great technology. Yeah. Do you want to wrap it? We're over an hour now.

Sure.

Sorry. I thought someone signaled. I thought Jan signaled to wrap it.

No, no, no.

We were having a good time. Shitting on the Ethereum Foundation.

Yeah, thanks for joining LTR. That was good, Jason. You've been on a few times, so thanks for coming back. And then, uh, yeah, we'll see everybody in 2 weeks.

I'll get the normal crew back with, uh, Jose and Duncan.

We'll see. I don't know what Duncan does half the time, so we'll see.

I don't think Duncan knows what Duncan does besides show the Galaxy, and he's got like a shrine of—

no, yeah, I was gonna ask Duncan if he's tokenizing his Galaxy on-chain go long more Galaxy.

Did you see there's like $500K liquidity though?

That's pretty good.

That's horrible. It's like $800 million order book.

I mean, it's horrible in context. It's like $500K is— that's kind of what you expect for these things. I think that's like how much all of these stocks—

in liquidity or in issuance?

Liquidity pool. Like, yeah, like Galaxy.

It's like a decent liquidity pool.

It's like I've certainly bought things with less.

Yeah, but like you've bought like $1 million market cap things with less. I don't know, like how are you going to get—

yeah, I don't know what the— listen, I agree with you. It's like, who is realistically buying Galaxy on-chain?

Like, I feel like if you're— I mean, if you have Galaxy, you almost want to just pivot so you can borrow against it if you really wanted to.

Um, but that's where it's useful to me. Yeah.

They need to probably find a better channel. Is there any integration with that? Like, can you, can you now take your Galaxy and go to like, I'm sure there will be soon. Or something.

Uh, yeah, you can, you don't need to. I'm pretty sure the way it works is that you need to, you need to KYC with Superstate, but then you don't need to like, but then you can use any protocol. Because your address is already whitelisted on— whitelisted. I don't know if that's— I don't know if that's like how it works literally right now, but I think that is the intention.

Okay.

I wonder if it's going to work.

In the securitization report back in May, I may need to revisit that. That's back when they only had fun tokens and those were like permissionless. So yeah, you would like KYC once on the Superstate thing and then you could pretty much do whatever you wanted with the tokens.

I mean, there's a lot of cool unlocks with that stuff for sure. That's like the 3-chain stuff. Like, it's—

yeah, like, I know decentralization maxis will be like, eh, KYC, but like, there's a lot of cool things you can do.

So what?

Yeah, well, yeah, I think, uh, that, that term is overused way too much. I mean, you're trading, you're trading like— who cares? You're trading fucking Galaxy stock.

They need to increase that liquidity by an order of magnitude though.

Like, they just need to balance.

That's what I was saying.

Like, you can't put size into it at all. Like you can't—

for how you even— I just looked at it on—

they were like a Polestar problem.

Like you get—

yeah, you get a bunch more and then the narrative starts building.

Are you sure it has 500K liquidity? Because I literally just looked at it.

I just saw a picture today on like Twitter.

So I'm pretty sure it's not even like tradable yet. Anyways, good chat. Going to wrap it up. But yeah, thanks guys for coming on. And see everybody in a couple weeks.

Yes, sir.

Thanks everyone.

Yeah, have a good one, guys. Thanks for having me on.