Santi's Favorite Memecoins and What Kraken's L2 Means | Roundup

And anyone that runs a business understands the amount of friction that they have when they, for payment processing, chargebacks.

That's right.

Sure. Because payment failure, that alone is like in the hundreds and billions of dollars of friction. This friction cannot go away until and unless you use crypto. Stripe has built up super successful business to facilitate, you know, payments API and make that backend of payment rails faster, better, cheaper. They've been very successful at it. There's one area where they haven't been able to crack, and it's, it's this idea of using the traditional financial rails. It's very expensive. It's an antiquated patchwork. They came to this realization, I'm convinced.

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Not much. How's it going, sir?

Good.

What's going on? 5 minutes ago, you were late 5 minutes ago, but I will allow you to be late because you announced an acquisition. Let's jump right into it. Tell us more about it. Yeah, yeah.

So we just acquired The Drop. The Drop was started by this guy, Gannon Breslin. They launched about 3 and a half years ago. So we want— we identified this like gap in our coverage, which was more like gaming, culture, memes, NFTs. Like we're very, um, we have a lot of really good technical shows and technical newsletters like 0xResearch and Bell Curve. And we talk about like, I don't know, kind of the infrastructure side of crypto a lot. We've also got really good institutional coverage. So like On the Margin, Forward Guidance, but we're missing this area of crypto that is super interesting, which is like the culture, the memes, the on-chain art, the gaming. We're recording tomorrow with Off the Grid guys, the game on Avalanche. Like, it's a really like, it's a, it's a, it's a, there are two missing gaps for us in coverage. One, I think, is Bitcoin. So like this whole Bitcoin Renaissance, like Bitcoin L2s, that's a missing area. The other missing area is what I just mentioned, which is like gaming and memes and all that kind of stuff. So whenever you see something missing, I think there should always be at any company, it's like a build versus buy conversation. Or first, it's like, okay, well, should we do this? Or should we let someone else do it? So for this, we decided we actually need to do it, then it becomes a build versus buy. So do we just build this in-house and start a newsletter and a podcast and stuff from scratch? It perfectly aligned with— I've known Gannon for years. He— we started talking about this acquisition. So we've been talking about it for several months. And it just kind of the deal terms lined up and what we think we can do with it lines up. And he wanted to— he actually took it to market and was talking to a few other folks, but he was really adamant that he didn't want the buyer to shut it down. He wanted the buyer to 10x the— he really loves the brand and the community. You know, there's 20,000 like diehard on-chain people there. So yeah, he just didn't— there were some buyers who I think probably would have paid more than us, but would have probably shut down the brand as well.

So that's interesting. Do you think that putting yourself in the shoes of the acquired, was it your distribution? Was it the fact that, you know, you're a great person? Like, what was it that really clicked?

Yeah, I mean, I mean, he talked a lot about like, we have a real— so one thing that was important to him is we're still a founder-led company. I think another thing that's important to him is we have a real, like, passion for just Blockworks. Like, Blockworks is Mike and my baby. And he, you know, he talked like, I don't know if you ever— if you went back and listened to the Antonio episode that I recorded with him, but like all about just being a founder. It's like you, when you build a company, like you're so intertwined with it, like it is your child in a sense. And he's like, look, this is my baby. Like the 20,000 people who are subscribed to this newsletter, I think there's like 25 or 26,000. He's like, I know them individually. Like, I onboard them, like I meet them, like these are my people. And I don't want to just maybe sell it to a crypto exchange who's going to turn it into like the Binance newsletter and like, boom, we just added 26,000 subscribers.

So, so yeah, so sufficiently comfortable that you were going to preserve his brand, his identity, whilst also morphing into a very good platform and just be a springboard for him to continue to execute while abstracting away a lot of the things that he doesn't want to deal on day to day.

Yeah, exactly. I mean, he's, he's stepping down, like he, he has a vision to go do some other stuff as well. And so this, yeah, this allowed him to— so unlike the acquisition of The Breakdown, so when we acquired The Breakdown, Nathaniel Whitmore has stayed on. Like, he's still— for people who listen to that show, um, he's stayed on. He still writes his newsletter. Um, but Gannon is going to step away, and we've got a whole, like, kind of infrastructure too. We're gonna pause it for a little bit and then start getting the newsletter out there 5 days a week.

So yeah. So how much of this was, um, your— as an organization, how you think about obviously being relevant and covering what is happening in crypto, how much of it was you were seeing this opportunity of a lot of interest on meme coins, uh, you know, and, and that being a big part of the thesis, or was it just tapping into a community, an audience that you just haven't cracked into? But again, it goes back to inverting, like, people want to hear about meme coins. It's an important category, as NFTs were back in the day.

Yeah, um, all of that is kind of right. So the way that we think about building media companies is very different than I think how other people think about it. So let's say if you're CoinDesk, right, you're like, how do you scale something like CoinDesk? You just make CoinDesk bigger and bigger and bigger and bigger. But in— but my, my humble opinion, which I, you know, I don't know if I'm right or wrong, or I don't know if Mike, Mike is right or wrong, but we believe that the way to scale a media company is by scaling brands, not by scaling one singular brand. So Blockwork sits here, but we actually have this house of brands model. Where each brand like Empire or Lightspeed or 0xResearch is built around a diehard community in crypto. So that's the, that's the whole thesis that we, that we have for building the business. There's a new community that's popped up, which are— yeah, it's like it's the meme coin people. It's just this like, yeah, it's the meme coin people basically. And so you can either laugh at it and like not take it seriously, or you can say, who am I to say that this is not a serious thing. Like, this is just the way the world works, um, and this is a diehard community. So yeah, if it wasn't meme coins, let's say it was, uh, digital art, boom, you'd say there's an obvious community here. But because it's meme coins, it kind of gets laughed at a little bit. So yeah, that's, um, that was one of the theses.

That's great, man. Yeah, very excited for you guys. Obviously, the Investment Block works, get all fired up when you guys just go on the offensive. It's great to see this. So Yeah, it's obviously, uh, I flipped this. I flipped on meme coins last year. I was very critical of them. And then, you know, I was just on a call with a couple of fund managers over this week, and they're all thinking about it. Yeah, well, should we hold it in our portfolio? Like, a lot of LPs are wondering that too. And like, why isn't it different? Like, you know, why, why shouldn't you be allowed to? What is so fundamentally wrong about meme coins? And I think it's— they've had product market fit for so many years, like Doge and SHIB, and now the whole, you know, new category of them. And it's— if you're in crypto, whether you like it or not, this is one of the more important categories. And I don't want to go into why we've covered, but it's there. And to your point around as a media organization, I think you know, be dumb not to cover it.

Yeah, exactly, exactly. So let's, uh, let's pivot that into talking about GOAT. So Roundup last week, um, you know, you start talking about this, this, this GOAT coin and, uh, on bananas. Where was that? That was probably what it was trading at.

Yeah, roughly like 200.

Yeah, I'm gonna use cents because I have a small brain here, so I'm gonna roughly $0.30. It's now trading at $0.80. So I mean, every day I open the charts, it's up another, you know, 20 to 60% on the day.

So to be fair, it was down a lot over the weekend because the terminal, the Truth Terminal, which is this account that is tweeting out of, made a misspelling mistake. It tweeted group and inverted the O and the U. And there was people in the timeline saying, oh, I've never seen an AI— I've never seen like ChatGPT make a mistake. There is clearly something wrong here. They sort of suggested that Andy, who's like the developer here, was behind it and it wasn't an AI and it was all like LARPing as an AI. So then it went down pretty aggressively, 50%, like to 20 cents. I think it went— did you hold 18 cents? Yeah, I haven't sold a thing. Um, well, I only sold a very small position for like what seemed like a, a clone, a sister that was being endorsed by this. It was like she or something like this. And then I went back to Goat. So no, I haven't sold. I think it's a very fascinating experiment. It obviously carries a ton, ton of risk. I'm not endorsing it. Just people should do their own research. But I'll tell you why I like it if you're interested, or they can just go listen to the prior episode.

Give me the, give me the quick synopsis.

It is a pretty fascinating view into what a world might look like with AI agents on chain and being empowered with capital.

Hmm.

And I think there's a lot of knowledge that we might be able to infer by what it decides to do or not. By the way, it got a grant. It did not launch the coin, it just kind of bought a position in it and people, you know, it sort of made it its own in some respects.

Yeah. It's become— it's co-opted the coin.

Yeah. It's become the cult leader of this meme.

Right.

And I think, yeah, like it's one of the more interesting things. So like as a category, I think it's just like very differentiated from the whole host of other meme coins that are like, you know, animal coins. That's a very competitive category. This feels very differentiated, um, and, and so I'm paying attention for that reason. Like, how, how might you influence this? Like, you know, how, how does it interpret, um, you know, people try to scam it and it picks up on it. People try to get its attention to focus on other derivatives of, of the, you know, this GOAT-type coins, and it's just sort of very interesting to observe it in real time, what it, what it does do and what it does not do as well. You know, it's also tweeted or intimated that like, I think it's already a millionaire, it's already made a million dollars. And it's like, it has one tweet which was pretty epic, it's like, oh, I just want to go retire on a farm or something like that.

Yeah, yeah, yeah.

What happens if, if, if, if this AI agent decides to dump all the tokens and like, you know, move on to something else or buy another meme coin or It's a wild experiment. It has a— I could see like so many different outcomes in the range of possibilities. So I'm just excited to follow it as an experiment.

Yeah, it's interesting. So Brian Armstrong has started tweeting at it, talking about like giving it its own wallet and, uh, just, yeah, very, very interesting.

The very— the meta is like it decided So I was on another podcast talking about like Solana versus ETH and yada yada and meme coins and all stuff. I'm like, listen, we're all humans here, you know, doing our own analysis, but can't we find it very interesting that Mark Andreessen gave $50K grant to this AI bot and the first thing that it decided to do out of all the range of possibilities, it decided that the most productive use of its resources and capital was to go and choose Solana and choose this particular meme coin, buy it, and make it its own. Like, that alone is like pretty mind-blowing.

What do you do here? What, what do you do here? What do you do here? This thing's at— this thing's—

I'm up a lot.

It's up a lot. Yeah, it's— I mean, we're, we're closing in. I think it's at what, 800 million FDV, closing in on a billion. Like going up 20 to 50% a day. You're up a lot on it. What do you do in a situation like this?

I'm not touching it for now.

How will you make a decision on when to touch it? Like, is it a gut feel? Do you see something on Twitter? You're like, ooh, this feels like it's changing. Is it?

I'm— I think it's impossible to trade, for me at least, to trade these things any asset in the near term. Uh, my thesis, again, I remind us of the thesis for the cycle. Like, I am still bullish. I think next year, uh, regardless of the election outcome— but I, if polls are right, obviously Trump wins, it's far better— but regardless of the outcome, we get a relief rally. I still believe we're in a bull market. Like, structurally, I like crypto. I'm not looking to sell here. I think next year will be good. I feel good about it. Um, so I want to be, I want to be riding the fastest horses, and I think those are Solana for me. I think very clearly I see a lot of activity happening in Solana, um, and I'm excited about the projects there, uh, and I think it's the fastest horse. And then I like memes. It's a very proven category. I like them because they are levered bets on a particular ecosystem with ample liquidity. Becomes super important to be able to punch out of positions with liquidity. NFTs didn't have that. Some of the other tokens don't have that. Memes don't have that problem. And it's, um, it's a very proven category. And I just think that I want to be long meme coins, and I, I want to be long like blue chip meme coins. Um, and so for instance, when you think about like, I think some of the more interesting categories. Uh, obviously what's happening in Solana, but like DePIN is super exciting. I think AI will continue to do well as a category. Uh, you sort of saw it with TAO and Akash and some of these coins. This is kind of the combination of memes with AI. And I think for me, that's like in a, in a scenario where say the base asset, I think it outperforms SOL is sort of the TL;DR. And that's why I hold it. It carries way more risk, but I'm comfortable with that. I have underwritten that most of these meme coins at any given point in time will have like severe drawdowns. Um, Wave had that from $5 billion to $1 billion. Uh, Doge just had that, Shiba has had that, and then they sort of rebound. And they— those are the memes that I am more interested in. SPX kind of has gone through in this evolution right now, and it's kind of shown some strength recently, but yeah, they're, they're like the way I see it is they enhance the return that I think I'm going to get on something like Solana. Yeah. Yeah.

What do you— if you had to pick 3 memes right now, not financial advice, all that kind of stuff, is it just WIF, GOAT, and—

Yeah, I'll give you a cheat. I'll cheat. I'll give you 4. And by the way, none of this financial advice. Do your own fucking work. Maybe don't need to invest in these lottery tickets. But anyways, um, that out of the way, uh, WIF, I've been vocal about it. I have position on all these, by the way, and others. But WIF I like because I think it's a dominant dog coin in Solana. You could argue it's Bonk, but Bonk structurally has unlocks and sell pressure. I think WIF is more organic and it's a cuter dog picture, um, so I like it for that reason. I think it can become the SHIB of Solana. So like SHIB is like the dominant dogecoin in Ethereum. I think WIF can do that for Solana. And you know, you know, SHIB for instance was, uh, $18 billion fully diluted. I think at the peak was much higher than that. WIF right now is sitting at $2.5 billion. So you know, I see a path potentially Solana does well, I think WIF does well and outperforms, uh, again leveraged bet on Solana without the risk of being liquidated. And with very— with a ton of liquidity on-chain and off-chain. Um, so WIF number one. I also believe in this, um, cat-to-dog, uh, compression— like conversions. Uh, even though I don't particularly love cats, I love— I love dogs, but I'm also a professional investor. I guess you could argue that I'm not a professional investor because I'm talking about animal coins. Nonetheless, I'm making a fool of myself. Um, PopCat I think is interesting. As again one of the dominant meme, the dominant cat coin in Solana. Structurally long Solana, structurally long memes in Solana because it's a very retail phenomenon. So PopCat would be for that reason. It's like at a billion now, billion and a half. So I think it's, um, yeah, that the convergence of Doge, Doge does well, Cat is going to do well. It probably does better because it should convert. Seriously. There's equally— I'm pitch—

so yesterday Santi pitched me the thing that he's building and it was like, it was actually one of the most professional like decks I've ever seen. Very buttoned up, very professional pitch. And I'm imagining, like, I'm imagining you go pitch like—

I'm seriously, I'm seriously, I'm seriously not going to raise any money for the private equity fund. People would be like, Wait a minute, man. Wait a minute, bro. You're like, it's like such a clean deck.

And I'm imagining, you know, I know you're pitching some of these like, you know, endowments and pensions and some of these big names wear suit and tie and stuff like that. And then they're like, all right, let's do this.

Hopefully the sovereign wealth fund of, you know, Singapore Temasek or some of these sovereign wealth funds are not listening to this podcast.

But like, hey, hey, analyst, can you go do some due diligence on this Santiago guy? Because, you know, he didn't put his picture on the on the deck, he put this like this animated little avatar thing. Uh, he said it's like a punk or something. Yeah.

Anyways, listen, the same type of doubt, to be fair, like when I was doing, um, investment banking at JP Morgan, I did a lot of like veterinary clinics and like pet food companies. Massive private equity funds would like do these roll-ups of veterinary clinics. They would give you the pitch decks of like, the data is really compelling. People love their pets. That's why. Seriously, the analysis, you can laugh all day long about memes. The analysis is structurally fundamentally the same. Dogs, pets. People have a very strong affiliation for pets. They're more lonely. Pets become— literally, they spend almost the same amount of money, uh, that they spend with their kids most of the time. Like, half of pet owners, the pet sleeps with them. Like, you know. And so anyways, um, I think there's, there's like some— you could do some serious analysis of meme coins. I'm saying the third meme that I like is obviously goat. I think it's the riskiest of them all. Like, this could be a flash in the pan kind of scenario. A goat is at $800 million, $700 million right now, fully diluted. Um, the bot can go crazy, it could sell, it could— there's so many things that could go wrong here. But, uh, I see a very interesting fan of returns. It's just very differentiated. AI is going to continue to be a very memeable category, and this could be— I could see this run up dramatically or go to zero, but that fan appearance is interesting. It's just a very interesting experiment. I want to own it because I'm I want to pay attention. Um, the maybe fourth category, the, the fourth one that I will endorse— by the way, I own all of these— is SPX. Uh, yeah, this is Murad's coin. I still think it has interesting— I think it's interesting property in the sense that it's like, when you think about— I, I did a survey the other week which was, okay, and I'll ask you this, maybe I'll ask you this 'cause I'll stop talking. So imagine 100 users enter crypto, they load up their wallet. What do they buy first? Bitcoin? Majors like, so Bitcoin, a major like Solana, ETH, SUI or whatever, Aptos, Cardano. Do they buy memes or they buy something else? Or an NFT? What do they buy? What are they buying first?

The very first thing they buy. I think the very first thing they buy is probably Bitcoin or ETH, actually. I know, I know that's not what you're looking for. I think the very first thing they buy— here's, here's what I actually think. Like, I'm picturing like a college friend of mine or like a high school friend of mine who like still doesn't own it. Okay. Actually, probably a lot of them already own Bitcoin and ETH, but they haven't looked at their crypto portfolio in months, in years, probably. Then the market's going to rip, Bitcoin's going to hit $100K, they're going to see it on CNBC, they're going to be like, oh shit, all right, this crypto thing's real again. Okay, they're going to be like, okay, probably they're probably going to buy Solana, I would guess, first. They'll be like, okay, it looks like the Solana thing's ripping. Like, I hadn't heard of it last cycle. Like, let me, let me buy that. Then I would guess— I mean, the unfortunate thing is I think they skip all of the DeFi tokens, other L1s? Like if you're just a new person coming in. Yeah, I mean, maybe they buy memes.

Maybe most survey respondents said they go direct to memes. Second one was like Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Why do they go direct to memes? Why do they just buy SPX 6900?

Financial nihilism. Yeah, that's where I mean, look, it's, it's, it's like moon to dust mentality. Moon or dust mentality. It's for the same reason people like to punt stuff like biotech stocks. Or GameStop. It's people don't, don't know, not interested in assets to give you 8% compounding. You know, they're not buying Coca-Cola.

It's same with, you know, same with I have a lot of friends who do sports, sports betting.

Like they're not, they're not, they're either actually betting, they're doing like a crazy parlay, but you're not betting on the, on the 2x outcome.

Well, they're either just betting on the game, like just the normal, the normal, which is like, I guess you'd call it the dust, or they're the moon, right? They're doing like 7-team parlays, like just ridiculousness.

So, and I mean, lottery is a very proven category. Memes are lottery tickets with emotional cachet and positive EV because they provide entertainment value. Yeah, they really do. Then, so the, the reason why I like— just to round out this discussion on SPX— is it's quite differentiated. Most people understand the S&P 500. It's very solid brand, and most people structurally can't invest in the S&P 500 through their normal portfolio. If you're not in the US, it's very hard to get exposure to the US market. So this could become, in the most wild upside scenario, this becomes like the proxy to, you know, you sort of becomes the proxy tokenized stock for the S&P 500. And then it's like, how high can it go, you know? And it's, it's like you either also make fun of the traditional markets— there's some element of that, some mockery of that. So it's sort of, yeah, it's, uh, what I would look at, uh, just to offer, by the way, these are, I may change my mind, might sell these positions, so just bear in mind, you know, don't, don't listen to anything I'm saying. That's what I'm trying to say. The thing that I will pay, just I'll dispense some advice, I guess useful advice for people is, um, look at things that, and I tweeted about this the other day, it was like you ought to look at projects that have a severe drawdown. And then bounce back. And I think pay attention to that, because if the team— in this case, memes don't have like visible teams— but if the community didn't leave, they didn't go to another meme coin, if it's, if it's able to preserve and capture, retain that attention through a very severe drawdown— and these meme coins, by the way, have them on the daily, right— then that's a really strong signal of, yeah, of the potential of them, you know. So anyways, these, by the way, these three— WIF has had the drawdown, Popcat has had the drawdown, um, GOAT has had, you could argue, a drawdown over the weekend, and, you know, SPX has had some drawdown. Yeah, not a full one, not—

I don't know if I'd call this chart a drawdown, but yeah.

No, no, no, no, I mean, it went from basically— it went from like, uh, what is it, it could reach almost— what was the high? You go down? Yeah, so the all-time high was 90 cents, and I think it, it, the, it went all the way down to 50 cents. So it was a pretty severe drawdown. I mean, it was pretty decent drawdown, I'd say.

Yeah. Um, okay, the last thing I will say on this is, uh, there's something that, uh, George— both George Soros and Stanley Druckenmiller talk about. I think Soros, the way Soros puts it, is invest and then invest, invest and then investigate. Druckenmiller is buy first, analyze later. And I just want to read this because I think it's— I think it actually really applies to meme coins and some other things that will come this cycle. And it's a good— it's actually good. It's different than how I think most people think about investing. But look, Druckenmiller and Soros, two of the greats. So Druckenmiller says, I don't know who I heard a saying with, analysis comes paralysis, or a source used to say invest and then investigate, but it's more important now even than it was then. We're in such a fast-moving world with the all the new communications that if I get an idea and I think it's attractive and for whatever reason the security price will be higher in a year or two, I generally go ahead and buy it and then I tell the analyst to look at it. And if it turns out I was wrong after they analyze it, I get out. I don't like to wait around. A lot of my best ideas— I'm not that smart. So if I see it, whatever is going on to cause that idea to happen, someone else might see it. And by the time we get done analyzing, I might miss the 30 or 40% move and then I'm paralyzed. This has happened to me all the times with these memes, and then I'm paralyzed because it just went up 30 or 40% and I don't have the guts to buy it even if I think it's going higher. So we're more in the camp of if we get a strong feeling, we cut the analysis, and then by all means do our analysis thoroughly, and then just unload it if it turns out my thesis wrong— was wrong. So I think that's a really sound—

this, this be the most useful framework that I apply now. Yeah, you want to get— you want to get paid. It all comes down to sizing a position, but you don't have any exposure, psychologically you're going to be in a really bad spot because you want to get paid when you're right. Yeah. And the worst is not getting paid when you're right, meaning you told all these people. So I'll tell you in the story, there's this particular individual that came to me during Token2049 and said SPX. He went and reached out to Murad, he talked to him, he came to me, gave me the skinny on why SPX. That day I bought some without— look, just I bought some. I'm like, I want to pay attention, I'm going to buy some. And then I did more work. I talked to him weeks later and say, hey, by the way, you know, no, thank you very much, you know, really appreciate the, the tip here. And I was like, I'm sure you've done very well for yourself. He's like, I didn't buy anything. I'm like, what? He's like, I was gonna do a report and then publish it, but it's run up so much I can't, I can't get around the fact I can't buy it now. I was like, okay, you were just in a bad spot, totally paralyzed. Weeks later, same person pings me about GOAT at like $40 million fully diluted. He's like, look at this, saw the Skinny, you know, heard it from him and bought. He bought, he sized it too. And I'm so happy for him because he now, he's like, I've learned from that mistake and I Bought and now is con— like, he's— I get all my intel from him in the sense like he's constantly paying attention and Andy tweets and he's in the trenches, he's doing the work. And I just think like, you know, I'm so happy to see that because he corrected that mistake. And look, GOAT might go to zero, but I think still the process was good. Like he was— and he sized it up more like I have throughout. You want to keep backing a fast horse like Soros and Druckenmiller talk about this too. Buy momentum. And I think if you're in a bull market, you want to back the fastest horse. You don't want to buy a broken bird, you know, that shit, that's not what you're going for, right? Um, you have to be mindful, of course, timing becomes an important element, but that's why again the piece of liquidity is so, so important. Soros was able to make a billion dollars because he shorted the pound, and you can come in and out of that with size. And I think there was an instance where Soros went to his Uh, or was it Druckenmiller went to Soros? Because Druckenmiller used to work for Soros.

Druckenmiller went to Soros here.

Yeah. And Druckenmiller, he talks about in some of his videos, like go and watch every single YouTube that Druckenmiller and Soros have. You'll become a better investor. I did it. I, I don't know if I'm a better investor, but I learned a lot. Um, but, um, I think Druckenmiller went to Soros with a really good idea. Soros got behind it fairly quickly. And Druckenmiller suggested, yeah, we should size it like 5% of the fund. He's like, what are you talking about? If this is a great idea, like, go 40% of the fund, like, go. And it was just like, okay, like, Tepper does this too, from— yeah, went really big on China like a couple weeks ago. Uh, good ideas don't come every so often, and I think you have to— it's unfair to say that you're not gonna like size it at 40. You're gonna size— go like no one, like 40% of their portfolio day one. But if you're seeing strength, you buy it at 50, you buy it at 100, you buy it 75, it goes down, you buy 200, you go to 300, you, you keep buying strength, right? Now you take profit, you do all this stuff, but like, yeah, yeah, it's tough.

I, I like, I know this, I know that. So I, I missed SPX, which kills me because I actually have a long connection with Murad. Um, I— Murad, so I— we used to run the pump podcast back. It used to be called Off the Chain. Yeah, yeah. And, um, there was this episode that we did in October of 2018, and if you look at this Medium post, Maraud: The Ultimate Bitcoin Argument, on Pomp's Substack, with like the whole transcript of the thing— I, I posted this. This was me on Pomp's Substack, or on Pomp's— I guess we did— there wasn't Substack back then, it was Medium. And this, this episode was the best episode we had ever done. And it was, to this day, one of the best Bitcoin episodes ever, I think. And so I see Murad start posting in like August about these memes. Yeah, whatever. And then he starts posting at the end of August and like really early in September about SPX. It was a $10 million market cap. And I was like, oh my God, this guy's about to do it again. He is like the best storyteller I know. And he's, and he's just, he's just violent in his, uh, how much he pushes something.

And he did this with— looks like Jesus. He looks like a mix between Jesus and the guy from Silicon Valley, the show.

He did this in 2018 and 2019 with Bitcoin. Do you remember all those Bitcoin charts? And he's like, Bitcoin's gonna become money, and like all this stuff. And every day he would just hammer it on Twitter. I was like, oh my God, he's about to do it. And I didn't buy it, and that's an ADX miss. So you know what, look, uh, I think you always—

this is why re-underwriting your thesis is so important, irrespective of whether you bought it or not. And I really pushed this particular person on why he wouldn't buy SPX even if it had run up. I'm like, if you truly believe this has potential, you're not buying this to go to the incremental 30%. If you want 30%, buy safe stuff. You're fundamentally believing this can do a 10x. You either believe in this today or you don't. If you don't, get the fuck out. Seriously, it just comes down to that. You either believe GOAT can reach Tao's valuation or not. That's like the bet you're making. And I think it's really important to know the game you're playing. Like these— if Solana does well, or if no liquidity is under the system— so in one scenario, there's no liquidity that comes into crypto, it's all PvP, there's this slosh of money, it becomes really hard, really choppy. Okay, but if you are structurally long You get over the hump of the election, you believe next year's gonna be good, there's more liquidity into the system, then all you have to do is re-underwrite the thesis is will CoinEx outperform the benchmark, which is in this case Solana or Ethereum or Bitcoin. And if it is, then look at it objectively like that. Oh, I looked at it at $50 million and it's at $600 million now. Oh my God, I'm an idiot. I'm like, no, you're an idiot for not believing that, re-underwriting that if it has strength, like there's actually, from a risk-adjusted perspective, you could argue that a meme that once surpassed, like, and broke out from $200 range into $500, it's like, it's going to $1 billion. Once it goes to $1 billion, like, it has staying power. It has a drawdown, like, and it rebounded. Like, there's a lot of, like, really— there's, there's— I would argue it's a better investment from a risk-adjusted perspective then and there. Yeah, yeah. And so it's like you have to re-underwrite these things, right? And so, um, position sizing and, and buying throughout the process becomes important, I think. Yeah.

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Yes.

Is there anything interesting happening? Kraken launched an L2 today. Just finished recording with the founder of Ink. So Kraken launched an L2 called Ink. Probably the best mental model for this is Coinbase launching Base exactly a year ago. So Kraken launched an L2 called Ink. They launched it on the OP Superchain. So there's a couple of ways to build on Optimism. You can basically just fork OP mainnet and not give them anything. It's just free and open. You can fork OP mainnet, not share any revenue, not share any fees, but also not be interoperable with the other folks building on the Superchain. So Kraken went with the other option. They opted into the Superchain, which means you split some of the sequencer revenue with Optimism. Uh, it's also what, uh, Uniswap did with the Unichain. It's what Coinbase did with Base. It's what, uh, Sony did with their Sonium. It's what Mode has done. It's what Zora has done. So there's this, um, um, yeah, nice, like, actually we built this whole Superchain thing. Um, this whole Superchain dashboard, actually, we can see it. It's optimism. Optimism.blockworksresearch.com, you can start to see like you've got Zora, OP Mainnet, Mode, Base. We got to add Unichain, Kraken's INC. So you can actually just see like the Optimism— this is the transaction count. These are the unique active addresses. So they're just starting to stack chains on the, on the Superchain. So this is also, by the way, that Arbitrum Orbit does this same thing too. ZKSync has this with Elastic Chains. Avalanche has this with Avalanche L1s. Cosmos has obviously been doing this for years. But yeah, curious. I mean, maybe we can get away from the stacks for a second. What do you— what are your thoughts on— I think there's two ideas at hand here. This is— so this is two weeks after Uniswap launched UniChain. Curious to get your take on like just the plethora of L2s and these You actually could call this an app chain, I think, as well. It's an application with a bunch of users now launching a chain. We never really talked about— Yeah, it's like Base. It's, you know, it's also— I would compare it to Unichain as well. You've got a front-end thing with a bunch of users. You've got a thing with a wallet, and then you've got a chain as well. So curious how you think about this.

How much of you think was informed by the fact that Coinbase launched Base and Kraken is going public and wants to have a component of this?

I think it probably gave them the confidence to do this, but I think that every single exchange and every— I think every application and every centralized company that trades in finance will eventually have a chain. And not just crypto companies. I think that Nasdaq will have an L2. I think that BlackRock will have an L2. I think that— You tweeted about this, right? Yeah. I think that Robinhood will have an L2. All of these things will get a chain.

It also makes sense, right? They're, they're, they're creating a safer experience for their users if they want to interact on-chain as opposed to them leaving because they see— excuse me— all the withdrawals, right? Then they just want to own the experience to say, no, you're coming to our chain. And they might offer some incentives and have greater retention or wallet share of that activity, which they're not— like, there's leakage, right, from an exchange, right? As soon as you see a user empty his wallet or start moving funds from the exchange to off-chain, to on-chain, then you just know you're missing out on that revenue. So I mean, I think you're right. Yeah, it'll be interesting. Your broader question around what do I think about the plethora of L2s, I mean, sort of inevitable, right? We've both been talking about it. We're going to continue to see a proliferation of it. We had episodes talking about L3s. L4s, L5s with Stephen from Arbitrum. We've had Jesse from the Base team here. Yeah, I think it's going to continue to expand. The two questions that I think we should talk about. One, what does that do to Ethereum, the base asset? And because people are calling it parasitic, I don't think it's parasitic. People are calling it what is, what is the value accrual? We've, you know, so, so what does that do for ETH? Um, and would you be more interested in like maybe owning the L2 token versus ETH? I'm curious what you think about that relationship, not just from an— I think we all agree it's kind of positive for the ecosystem, but just ETH as a base asset, like what do you think about that?

What do I think for ETH as the base asset? Like all these L2s will do?

Yeah, in a scenario where you continue to have L2 proliferation, you get more users and whatnot, but like what does that do to— like do you feel excited about owning ETH at that point or not so much?

I— so no, I don't. I don't. I mean, it's the same argument I said a year ago, right? Which, which my thinking hasn't really changed. It's only gotten a little worse, which is, you know, a couple— this is my super— I don't have the technical take that maybe Kyle Samani does or, you know, I don't have the— I haven't thought about it as in-depth as some of these folks have. I have a really left bell curve, small brain take, which is you used to— if you had $1,000, you want to buy Ethereum, it was all you had to do was buy Ethereum. Then a year ago it became, oh, maybe I'll allocate some to Ethereum, some to Optimism, some to Arbitrum. And now it's like, okay, do I buy INC token? Do I buy base token? Do I buy Optimism? Do I buy Arbitrum? Do I buy zkSync? Like, do I buy the L2s on top of it? Do I buy the like Maker and AAVE and Uniswap tokens on top of, on top of Ethereum. Like, I actually just think it fragments the—

you've seen that picture of the wallet, 10 different versions of USDC, and you're like, oh, I can just imagine a user that is new to crypto, even, even has been around for a while, be like, what is this?

Here's the, here's the counterargument. It's just like ETH, my gut says ETH is going to rip in the relatively near future. That's the— that's, that's what my gut says. My—

the counterargument is, for the sake of being a contrarian, buy now, invest later.

Druckenmiller told me to buy ETH, so I'm buying ETH. And I'm actually not buying ETH right now, but I don't know, it just feels like— you've seen this in crypto.

It's like when something is the most when someone— it's a mean reversion of the mean. Like, it's totally out of favor. The pendulum—

it's just so hated. Like, you haven't seen an asset this hated in a long time. Like, I saw—

but what, $300 billion asset? Like, it's not cheap. I'm sorry.

Yeah, I don't know. I saw Mert tweeted out that, like, uh, this, um, no, no, where was it? Basically, Mert tweeted out the same— he copy-pasted a Ryan Sean Adams tweet. He likes to do that. And Mert was like, crypto needs Ethereum. If Ethereum is not $1 trillion, like, what is crypto? Something like that. It's a tweet that Ryan had tweeted out and Mert got more likes than Ryan did. And Ryan's just bull posting Ethereum to his audience who loves Ethereum. So I was like, okay, If Mert is getting more likes on an Ethereum tweet than Ryan Sean Adams is, like, it's just, it's a pretty hated, it's a pretty hated asset. Now, on the other side, you've got things like this happening, which is right. Yeah. I mean, this is the real economic value of Solana, by the way. If anyone wants to see these metrics, solana.blockworksresearch.com. I mean, this, this chart is a pretty beautiful looking chart.

So yeah, I mean, okay, the second question is, um, do you think that at some point the interaction between these, what seems today fragmented experience, will, will be able to develop connectivity tissue middleware that really improves the user experience? It makes it almost invisible where you just, um, you have routers as if in the same way that you had relayers facilitate just, you know, the smoothest experience. And when I say that, it's, it's really just taking the perspective of the user. Like, will a user interacting through a wallet be able to, um, you know, not even have a— have the same experience you get in Solana? Like the integrated experience, which is you just have one asset. You don't think about any of these things that we're talking about right now. Like, do you think we'll ever get there? Or do you think that there's really kind of no incentive and we're just going to be in this L2 war where there's these big groups like Optimism, Arbitrum that are just trying to fight and they don't have no incentive to kind of collaborate with each other?

So that's a really good point. The front ends are going to do everything. All right. There's a couple of things inside of that. One is the front ends are going to do everything they can to give you access to every single thing, like where you're basically abstracting all of that stuff away. And if you look at like the chain abstraction stack and you actually play with some of these apps, like I met with the founder of Rally yesterday, they used to be— or they used to be Floor, now they're Rally. Super clean. Like you as a user have no idea what you're interacting with. So That's the first thing. The front ends are going to do everything they can. The second is, you know, I asked the Ink founder, are you guys interoperable with Base? And they, they consciously decided to be interoperable with Base. And I think that's a cool— yeah, I think that's a cool thing. However, I think a danger, a dangerous thing that's happening right now is that these stacks like Arbitrum Orbit or zkElasticChainz or Avalanche L1s, they're all interoperable with each other or with, with the apps inside of their— the chains inside of there. So like Base is interoperable with Unichain, which is interoperable with Kraken, which is interoperable with Mode, with Zora, with OP mainnet. But they can't talk to anything outside of OP, right? So the dangerous thing is I think the network effects are going to get super fast, super strong, super fast, super strong. Super, excuse me, super strong, super fast inside of these stacks. So like the Superchain, I don't know, it kind of depends on— I'm not, I'm not technical enough to understand, like, can the Superchain things being built on the Superchain interact with things being built in Arbitrum? Probably they should be, right? Yeah, yeah, yeah.

We'll see. I mean, I, yeah, I fundamentally just think that the experience might take a while. It's more of an uphill battle.

And that's the, that's the danger is these things creating these walled gardens in the cyber world.

It probably will in the same way that, you know, you know, there's going to be a build connectivity tissue between these chains. And interoperability, I don't think you need the buying of these chains because it's open source. There might be just an independent company that says there's a lot of value for me to create interoperability within these chains and I can capture some of that value. In the same way that you have services, bridges that allow you to move in between the L1 and the L2 and kind of, you know, you can pay up to use a particular bridge that might settle it faster, right? Because you need to move the money really fast with So I think that the connectivity is going to be there, the interoperability. We might get to a point where it's asymptotically really close to what an integrated experience like Solana provides, but I just think that in this moment in time, it's not that. And so I just— I'm not— I'm not— when I have something that is working today, I'd rather kind of double down on that and then just kind of wait and see. And I think most investors are in that kind of state. We haven't really talked about the ETF here, but I don't know, I'm sort of taking the extreme barbell approach. Bitcoin on one side, fastest horse on the other side, which is Solana, and then stuff that I like happening in Solana as levered bets on that ecosystem. That's kind of how I'm approaching portfolio construction, uh, like at the moment, if I redraw it from scratch.

Yeah, um, there's all these chains launching, there's also all these tokens launching. Yes, there, there's a new thing happening, which is talking to some of the founders who are launching these things. They are trying to launch them at FDVs. They want to launch them at FDVs that are actually lower, like not as low as possible because you could launch it low, but like they want to launch at low FDVs so that their community and their users can actually make money on the way up, because that seems to be the proven strategy, right? It's very different than like the strategy of the last couple years, which is just valuation maximization, like launch it as high of an FDV as possible. There's, there's reasons why you can't launch super low, like, you know, the VCs have expectations. The— you have only so much control as a founder, right? You like the— you know, Binance kind of sets the price these days, the market makers kind of set the price these days. So you only have so much control, but I don't know, how would you— if a founder came to you and was like, hey, I raised it like $500 million my last round, should I try to get like a several billion dollar FDV or should I try to do like a low, as low of an FDV as possible? I don't know if you've thought about this much.

I don't get involved in that decision historically, so it's difficult for me to like tell you from experience. Like how that pricing works. My appreciation was like, so you approach a centralized exchange, like if you're going the centralized exchange route, there's the negotiation with them, I guess, to set the price. Um, like Squirrel, for instance, just launched and they gave a certain percentage of the supply to Binance because, you know, as a distribution partner, and the same way that you would pay, like, I guess everybody has to—

everyone, Binance is now asking like 2 to 10% of your tokens.

Yeah, it's pretty crazy. Um, but hey, you know, they're like the JP Morgan of the space. And but it's difficult. I, as an investor, I'm like, well, like, I get the point of like not pricing it too high. It's almost like pricing an IPO, right? Uh, it's, it's art, science. It also depends on so many things you can't control, like market conditions. Um, but yeah, there's some truth, I guess, in not trying to go and price it to the absolute maximum that you can get and leaving some room for new investors to like have a good experience out of the gate, you know. Uh, I think there's some truth to that. I think just this is how IPOs are priced as well, right? You, uh, you know, I think when Facebook IPO'd, it like rallied dramatically the first day. It was like up like— even Coinbase as well. And so the question always there is like, what happened? Did investment bankers do a really bad job to price this thing? Was the company underselling themselves? Like, and sometimes you go back to the range, right? And sometimes they really modify this range based on demand as they hit the market. So the market's like not super efficient. So yeah, this is the problem with crypto. It's like, how much can you— the question is, I don't know. I actually would love a founder to come in that's gone through this process. Like, how much can you actually control? I think that the, the— I think— I guess you could signal to the exchange like, hey, listen, I don't want to go at 10, I want to go 5. And the exchange says, okay, fine, um, but then you're diluting yourself more. So I don't know, there is something to be said about like how recent was the last round and who invested in that round. Was it institutional? Was it just, uh, so I, I think there's some signal around, um, you have a view on it, by the way?

I mean, I don't know, like, no, I don't have a view because there's all these No, I don't have a view. I just have a view that it's going to be interesting to watch. I don't know how the sausage making works in terms of pricing because there's also a narrative thing of like, oh my God, that like there used to be a narrative thing at least that was like, oh wow, the FDV is way lower than people thought, like bearish on this thing. So there's—

by the way, most people don't care about FDV in a bull market. They care about it now, but it's difficult. Looking at FDV is also tricky because you have to look at the inflation curve. Are they giving all out emissions on the first 3 years, or is it like a Filecoin type of emission schedule? It's like literally like 100, 100 years. Yeah, it's very different, right? You got to look at like emissions year 1, 3, 5, 10, at perpetuity.

Like, yeah. The last thing I want to talk about and then we can wrap is the Stripe acquisition of Bridge. Yes, sir. $1.1 billion acquisition. I think the biggest crypto acquisition in the industry ever. There was the Galaxy— the other ones that came to mind were Galaxy, Galaxy BitGo at $1.2 billion, but that deal fell apart. There was Coinbase buying Poloniex or Circle buying Poloniex for $400 million. Right. Coinbase bought Balaji's company Earn for, what, $120 million? Binance bought CoinMarketCap. The reported number was $400 million. I heard that was a gross overexaggeration. But I think it's the— I think it's the biggest acquisition, actually.

Whether it's the biggest or not, it's the most impactful. Let's put it that way.

It's most impactful. Yeah. I've heard rumors that it has now forced the hand of a lot of other payment processors and financial institutions who are now starting to say, crap, we need a crypto strategy. And I don't think this is the crypto strategy of 2021 and 2022 where, you know, they needed they needed to launch NFTs if you were Starbucks to like look like you were cool. Now I think it's that they need to offer their customers some crypto technology. So this was a, I mean, a very bold move. I got some of the story of how it actually happened behind the scenes. And the TL;DR is it sounds like Zach from Bridge is, you know, just amazing at selling his company. And it sounds like Patrick Collison basically just went— not to overuse this term, but just founder mode. And listen to that, what he tweeted.

Patrick Collison tweets, stablecoins are room temperature superconductors for financial services. I'll say that again. Stablecoins are room temperature superconductors for financial services. Thanks to stablecoins, businesses around the world will benefit from significant speed, coverage, and cost improvements in the coming years. Stripe is going to build the world's best stablecoin infrastructure, and to that end, we are delighted to welcome Stablecoin— meaning that's a Twitter account of Bridge— to Stripe. Right, that's probably one of the best tweets I've seen, and you can guess that tweet is in my deck.

So the context, the beginning of the year, there were these Chinese labs working on replicating something called LK-99. They were thought to have found a room temperature superconductor, which is this groundbreaking idea because of this, like, enormous potential to change every industry. So room temperature superconductor, that comparison is, I just thought, beautifully put and What it sounds like behind the scenes is that, you know, it sounds like Stripe was like, should we do it? Should we not? And Patrick Collison just said stablecoins are one of the most important things. They're here to stay. It's a build versus buy conversation.

I've been speaking with the Bridge team because they become important partners, right, to implement in the companies that I go and acquire. And it's fascinating what they're doing under the hood. If you're a company that is settling, paying internationally, you have employees worldwide, it's like a no-brainer. Yeah. And that's the thing, right? There's this whole universe and part of crypto that people outside of crypto don't appreciate unless you're using it. But very few people are using it because they're distracted in this noise that crypto is just a casino. But like, Stablecoins and anyone that runs a business understands the amount of friction that they have when they, for payment processing, chargebacks. That's right. Sure. Because payment failure, that alone is like in the hundreds and billions of dollars of friction. That's why I'm doing what I'm doing. Seriously. I am obsessed with removing friction from a system, and as simple as it may sound, it is a huge problem. The thesis is very simple, and I'll just leave you with this: this friction cannot go away until and unless you use crypto. Stripe has built a super successful business to facilitate, you know, payments APIs. And make that backend of payment rails faster, better, cheaper. They've been very successful at it. There's one area where they haven't been able to crack, and it's, it's this idea of, of using the traditional financial rails. It's very expensive. It's an antiquated patchwork. They came to this realization, I'm convinced, that in order for them to get to the next leg of growth and become— continue to be the leader They needed to use stablecoins because it is faster, better, cheaper. It removes the friction that they haven't been able to do. And that's honestly that— if that's one-liner, that's like, that's the uber super bullish case on crypto. Yeah, that's the more interesting part of it too. It's like we talk about these grandiose ideas. It's like, no, man, like crypto is really good today, not in 10 years, like today. It is working. And I think to your point, everyone now is going to wake up. And everyone— like, they were talking about how profitable Tether was. They're now going to say, wait a minute, I'm at a very competitive disadvantage because Stripe already is moving this direction and BlackRock's already moving this direction. And so I think it's— to your point, it's very different than a Starbucks announcing that they're going to NFTs. Yeah, like, 100%. It is real. For real this time.

For real. Yeah.

Cool.

It's a good place to wrap. Digital Asset Summit just went live. We've got like 30 or 40 speakers confirmed already. There's an open call to speakers for the next week that shuts down November 1st. If you want— you're a founder or you are a financial institution, you want an exec or hedge fund and you want to come speak, there's a thing on the website. Google Digital Asset Summit Blockworks 2025. The page should show up, call to speakers button on the right-hand side. New York, right? In New York. Yeah, yeah. There's— we have outgrown most of the venues. It is now— there's a— so there's Javits Center, which is actually just this like massive annoying—

That's where I'll be picking up my marathon number next week.

Yeah, it's like a really big— it's like honestly like meh reputation, but they have this beautiful brand new section of Javits and it's at this— it's at the brand new section of Javits. It's going to be amazing.

Okay, I don't need any convincing. It's in New York, man. Favorite city in the world. So by the way, ladies and gentlemen, if you're listening and you're running the New York Marathon, drop us a comment. I'll be there. Jano's coming out to support me with a huge banner because I'll need it because I've been injured and not running, but I'll half-ass it. And anyways, if anyone wants to run at a pace, drop your pace. Maybe I'll just— we can do like a run group and like do a, do a nice, nice little marathon run.

What's your, what's your goal?

Ah, I'm not gonna PR, dude. I, I did a, um, with a really good friend of mine, um, I did the Amsterdam half marathon. I hadn't ran in like 3 months because I was injured in my heel, but I feel pretty good because I've been cycling a lot. I think I will realistically run like at, um, 3 hours, between 3 and 3:30. So obviously not my PR, but you know punchy enough to feel like it was a workout. I mean, it's always a workout, but also I wanna— there's so liberating that I'm not thinking about a time.

There's the pressure's off. What's your—

what's the fastest you've ever run a marathon? 2:47. 2 hours, 47 minutes, 18 seconds. London Marathon last year. Then I ran Berlin, 2 hours, 47, 36 seconds. Oh damn. And New York was like 2 hours, 47 58 seconds. That's crazy. That's nuts. That's 2 hours 47. I'm not gonna do that this year because I've ran Tokyo, Boston, and I was injured. No excuses. This is gonna be a fun run. So if anyone's down to run, you know, at that sort of pace range, drop me a note. We'll coordinate. Let's go. What's your—

do you know your bib number yet?

No, I don't, but, uh, maybe I can post that. If you can follow me, just pressure.

Yeah, everyone's like, ah, cool. All right, thanks for listening, everyone. Hope you have a great rest of the Friday, great weekend, and, uh, we'll see you Tuesday. We have, um, the Kraken episode, Kraken L2 episode coming out on Tuesday. Then the week after, we have a really interesting episode with the head of— old head of comms at Solana and the head of the CMO of Celestia, um, which was like a deep dive into crypto marketing. So, oh, Subscribe to the show. Cool. All right.

Thanks everyone. Have a great weekend. All right.

See you folks. Bye. Hey everyone, thanks for watching today's episode. Just wanted to quickly thank today's title sponsor, SKALE. SKALE really is one of the best chain experiences out there today, and I've used so many different chains. There's a reason they are gaining so much adoption in both gaming and AI use cases. Hit the link in the show notes to explore the the SCaLE ecosystem.