Trading Crypto's AI Moment In 2025 | 1000x

Hold on to your cycle bags. Don't do anything stupid. Don't pay too much bid offer. Don't listen to us. This isn't investment advice. That's, that's basically the summary, right?

It's true.

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Happy New Year, everybody. Welcome back to another 1000x Podcast. I'm Calling in here from Florida, last day of my quote-unquote vacation from the crypto markets. It's been good. It's been— this kind of played out exactly the way that we discussed last episode, which is we bought them. You know, I tweeted this out, pick your spots, buy your altcoins, but just make sure to be done by the new year. And that has played out really nicely this year and last year, where December 31st was basically the bottom on a ton of different coins. And now we're back up. I mean, Bitcoin rallied, rallied up 92 to 98. Alts have posted anywhere from 15 to 40%, um, in aggregate. The one standout has obviously been the AI coins, which have done extremely well, which I'll take credit for because ever since Joe and I launched 1000x on virtuals, it went from— went from $2 to $4. And that has to be because of us. I don't see any other reason why that would be.

Yeah, I mean, it's, it's clearly we're the only thing going on in crypto right now. It feels quiet even though the market's rallying like crazy. Every single daily candle this year has been green. Definitely feels like there's somebody TWOPing into crypto, not sure who. And, you know, I think both of us fully expect this to continue throughout Q1, especially after Inauguration Day when you remove this massive drag on the space, which has been adverse regulation. Gary Gensler is expected to resign on January 20th, Inauguration Day. Even if no pro-crypto bills get passed, to me it feels like just the absence of that overhang is super bullish. So, I mean, I think the setup looks great. I think that in terms of like the, the places where you gambled in, in sort of a degenerate way, meme coins are out. AI coins are the new meme coins. And I like it, but I guess I'm struggling to understand why it is that some of these projects need a token. I can kind of understand the rationale for linking a token to your, your AI agent in some use cases. Like for example, let's say you wanted to use it as a marketing tool and you commit some of your revenue that from, you know, marketing activities to token buybacks. That is a way to, you know, like organically create an incentivized community around your marketing project. But, you know, I don't know. I can't— basically these AI coins, I can't tell whether there's utility in the token or whether it's just a meme coin like WIF or POPCAT, but slightly sparklier. And I don't know.

It's just a meme coin, but slightly sparklier. I mean, that's, that's my, that's my take on it. And in the future, what people are going to do, or they're going to figure out ways to link it to more value. I mean, like, for example, one of the ways that we've discussed potentially adding value to 1000x is like, what if we take some of the podcast revenue and we use it to buy 1000x, right? And that sort of— the way that I think about this is these AI agents have a token attached to them, are consistently being started by things or by people that don't already have a token attached to whatever project they're working on, right? They're making a new project out of this AI agent. So obviously things that are existing already can launch AI agents to help with their marketing, but they're already going to have a token that exists, or they're already going to have equity, equity that exists. A lot of these agents that are popping up have the token explicitly associated with the agent because it's an entirely new thing, right? Like, well, kind of, kind of what we did. We didn't have anything that people could interact with that was attached to the 1000x Podcast other than listening to it. And now we do because of this, because of this agent. And so what I think is, you know, these— you can't really classify what these tokens are as like a, as a, as a whole. The majority right now for sure are just, are just meme-y. But in the future, I mean, people are just going to launch these agents because they're good for their broader brands. I mean, who knows? Maybe Coinbase will have an agent that'll tweet out one day just because it gets engagement. And that's the future. I mean, every single criticism of these AI agents doesn't take into account how fast things are in development, right? Yes, today they're not useful. But in a year, these things are going to be exceptionally useful.

Some of them are already useful. Like, they're going to be very— AI xBT is like basically summarizing half of crypto Twitter and tweeting it out every few minutes. It's insane. But yes, I agree, most of it's useless. And in the future, when people figure this out, many of these things will be useful. So hard to— I guess that's why, that's why the infrastructure layer of AI tokens infrastructure layer has taken off and some of the agents themselves are hit or miss. Like by infrastructure layer, I mean Virtuals and AI16z, which are the two big platforms that allow you to launch agents. The tokenomics of Virtuals are pretty insane. Like in order for it, basically you pay for compute if you run a Virtuals agent in Virtuals. So there's constant buying of that token to pay for compute. Because every, every time the agent tweets, it has to like access an LLM and think a little bit. So yeah, I mean, to me it's like, to me, I think, I think it's like when you buy AI-16Z or Virtuals, it's like buying an L1. And, you know, this take is not original. It's been well publicized on Twitter. To me, that seems like the safe place to go. And I think that we're going to hit some point in this cycle, probably in the next 6 months, most likely in the next 3, where everything AI-related just 10 to 100x for no friggin' reason. Like, I think that's where the next mania is coming. And as George Soros said, when you see a bubble, try to, try to catch on to it somehow. So that's, that's my personal bet. I'm not going like massive size on this bet, but I definitely think like, you know, it's, it's worth, it's worth a chunk of your portfolio to try and bet on a 10x or in random AI infrastructure plays. I wouldn't bet on the agents though. I have no idea which ones are going to rally, which ones are going to go to zero. To me, that feels like meme coining without any conviction 8 months ago.

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What's really interesting is that even when the market was doing poorly, these coins were doing well. And I think what that tells you is that there's still tremendous appetite for novel products and novel, you know, any, any, anything that's pushing, pushing the boundary a little bit, people are there to, people are there to go buy it. And that's why I do think that we don't necessarily get a massive broad-based alt season until, you know, I don't think BTC needs to get to like 110, 120. If it were to happen, it would have kind of happened by now. Um, and I think that it's going to be, it's going to be a little bit more targeted. My bets are still on the agents, but also on Ethereum. You know, I think I mentioned that I was very constructive on Ethereum heading into the new year, and that still remains the case for me. I think that Right now, what we're gonna, what we're gonna see is we're gonna see a lot of new allocation into the space coming in after the new year. I think you saw yesterday that we had one of the largest inflows into BTC ETFs, $908 million, and that's an indication of people that decided to buy but were waiting to buy until the new year. And realistically, what's happening right now is that over the next first 2 weeks in January is when you're going to start to get a lot of a lot of new allocation into the market. And we've been seeing consistent flows into the ETFs. And so that's going to be a big boon for ETH is all of those new allocations, I think, are going to look similar to what we've seen before, but in larger size. And ETH is going to benefit from this as well. And so I think that we can, we can see some, some pretty explosive price action heading into the inauguration. One of the things that I used to think and now no longer think, because remember in trading you always have to incorporate new information and how the market looks when it heads into an event. 3 months ago, I predicted that we would top near inauguration because I thought that we would have a face-melting rally if Trump got elected all the way through up until inauguration. That turned out to be wrong. Revised my opinion. Um, you know, on the, on the direction of the market. And now I actually think that we start to rally into the inauguration and then we continue to rally through the inauguration because we've actually already washed off a lot of the excess. We went from $108,000 back down to $90,000, nuked OI on like every altcoin that you could possibly think of. Uh, the market reset itself and now we're seeing new steady inflows, or I think we're going to see new steady inflows. And so I think through inauguration, you're actually going to get a pretty substantial move from the, from the markets. Not only that, equities are now very supportive again. You know, S&P and NASDAQ were up 1.2%, 1.6%. And what this tells me is that the fears of the Fed's, uh, you know, hawkishness have washed out of the system. It's been ingested, which is why I, I said this on the last podcast, whenever you get a move like that in equities on a Fed announcement, it's a complete and utter fade. And the reason that it's a complete and utter fade is because that move is pricing in everything that you need to know. Unless it's a genuine paradigm shifting moment, right? Unless it's an inflection point going from we haven't cut rates in a, in a really long time. Now we're going to start to cut rates or we haven't raised rates in a really long time. Now we're going to start to raise rates. What they did is they just said we're going to slow down. That's not a paradigm shift. And so I think equities are, you know, in a very good spot right now because of this.

So basically, in, in the statement you just made, there's a lot to unpack. You talked about inflows and you talked about the macro backdrop. So let me just respond to each one. Inflows, I think they're just going to continue. I think that the, the, uh, BTC ETF inflows that, that you just mentioned are the tip of the iceberg. I think we're going to see multiple days like that in Q1. I don't really see outflows occurring either, especially since given CME basis, you know, it isn't that high right now. I doubt, I doubt a lot of that is like against futures. I think it's literally just fresh capital coming in because that's how allocations work. The year starts and new allocations come in. So I think you'll see ETF-related inflows. FTX dollars are going to hit the market sometime in Q1. Um, I think all that's just going to go towards buying crypto. I know some hedge funds had claims and they'll probably cash out, but haven't checked the data. I think it's— even if it were just 50% of the $16 billion or whatever that they're going to pay out, which is still in retail hands, like, I think you see at least a few billion of that come back into crypto. Um, another form of inflow we could see this year— Polymarket is pricing a 75% chance of a Solana ETF getting approved 2025, uh, 50% chance it happens before July 31st. I, I think a Solana ETF would launch a lot with a lot more strength than the ETH ETF launched last year. Like, I think, I think there is a group of people out there on, in financial industries and retail that would like to buy a Solana ETF that maybe can't buy Solana right now because it's either illegal for them to do so, or they're just not, they're not on crypto exchanges. They're normies, they're no-coiners. Solana's got enough of a a brand that I think it could attract some new capital into crypto, especially after the Solana unlocks occur. I think it could be particularly bullish for that token. Um, so I, I think inflows are coming from every direction this year, especially institutional. And then to your point about the macro front, I, I'm, I'm reading macro blogs, I'm paying attention. I'm just struggling to find a negative catalyst, and that worries me. Like, the macro, the macro backdrop just looks so, so primed for success, so primed for another huge, amazing year on every level, like GDP growth, equity price appreciation, you know, home value appreciation. I think the economy's looking good. I think a lot of the, you know, the Trump administration's advertised policies or bullish macro. The Fed's not going to do anything crazy. There's no inflationary shock on the table. I guess the only thing that's, that's waiting in the wings is the proverbial black swan. So I'm a little nervous. Like, it all looks a little too good, but you know, you maybe could have said that any year between 2010 and 2020 and held off on buying, and you would have been wrong. So I think it's time to just buy with hands again. You know, this macro looks so good. It's kind of crazy.

It is. And I'm just so— I honestly, I'm just thankful that we washed out people before, before the inauguration, because I really thought it— what's funny about crypto is a lot of the peaks and, uh, basically the peaks and the bottoms of crypto are decided by emotion in a huge way. And so if we had a genuine sell-the-event like the inauguration, that could have actually taken a long time to recover from. Because imagine instead of going from, you know, 70 to 108, back to 90, you went from 70 to 140 to 90. That's, that's actually a lot worse.

Oh yeah, right.

And that, and a move like that tends to lead to people being very scared to come in. This type of movement is actually constructive because, yes, we had a dip. Sure, you go down 15, 20%, but it didn't implode on itself and it actually held. It held pretty nicely. And so that type of price action actually tends to be psychologically affirming for people where it says, yes, remember, this is a volatile asset, but it's not over. I come back in the water, the water, the water is warm. A lot of it has to do with psychology. And then you have the inauguration now, is instead of sell the event, as I've been saying, it's actually buy. People are going to start buying for it. Um, and then obviously, as you pointed out, there's so many things that are going to go crypto's way this year. One of the trades that I was really pissed about missing, Jonah, because I got the first two and then I missed the third, was You know, I nailed GBTC trade, nailed the ETH trade at the discount. There's a Bitwise Top 10 Index that was like the last traded—

BITC.

Yeah, that was traded at a discount. I think prior to the inauguration, it was trading at a 20 to 25% discount, and now it's flat and up because everything in it's up. And I was just sitting there thinking to myself, oh man, should have, should have, I should have remembered that one. I should have loaded up on that one. That would have been really nice.

That has some XRP in it, which is why in 2022 it was so cursed. And I guess this year it performed. Yeah, I hadn't really looked at the Bitwise one. Yeah, that sucks because we did, we did a good job on those other ETFs. That was—

yeah, we crushed it.

Another one we missed was, was SUI. What the, what the heck is going on with that one? Like, it's in— is it the top 12? Is it in the top 12 now? I don't understand. It's like There's so many trades that I'm missing left and right. Most of them don't bother me, but yeah, like a Bitwise top 10 is annoying because we literally did that same trade on two other ones successfully. SUI, I can't tell whether it's the next Solana or whether this is just one of those head fakes like WIF, you know, that doesn't really make any sense and you can't blame yourself too much for missing.

I genuinely I have no freaking idea. However, what I will say is this is very good for my parachain bags because it sets the ceiling. It sets the ceiling on fake L1s so high. I mean, Sui is an interesting case because the reality is that I believe it's not a good platform. It's, it's not really competing competing as an L1 in any meaningful way. And what you have to remember is that sometimes L1s get niche communities like Cardano. Cardano became massive off the back of just having a strong niche retail community. And so fading things like this is very difficult. I mean, even if you faded Cardano, if you shorted Cardano, it was basically like shorting any other altcoin. It wasn't— you weren't eking out extra juice from shorting a Cardano than you were from shorting basically anything when the market topped, right? Um, so I think a lot of people ping me and they go, oh man, SUI has to be a short here. Like, this, this is like the most easy short I've ever seen in my entire life. And the reality is, no, it's not. Because the risk-reward is still pretty bad. I mean, SUI will continue to do well as, as the market does well, or until something catastrophic happens, like the team decides to sell everything all at once. And if that's your alpha, then, then track the wallets. But at this point, it's captured— I mean, it's, it's captured mindshare in a pretty, in a pretty significant way. And the number one predictor of whether a coin will continue to do well or whether it's reached its peak is, has CT started to buy it? Everyone on crypto Twitter hates this. Like, they hate this coin with a passion, Jonah.

Yeah.

And they talk about it all the time. This, like, this doesn't make sense. This is dumb. This is stupid. And then it keeps going up. And so once those people capitulate, maybe it's time that, you know, maybe, maybe it's time to be over. But until then, I'm kind of thinking you just, you just leave it alone. Like, I myself, like, I don't know how to trade this thing. I don't know how to buy it. Like, I might— like, I might trade it technically, right? Um, it actually respects its levels really nicely, right? So, you know, it flips, uh, resistance to support very well. Um, it breaks out very nicely. It's actually a good trading asset. I mean, it's not something that I would hold But that actually tends to be true with these types of assets, is that they tend to be very good trading assets because there's no fundamentals attached to it, but it has so many people buying and selling it at the same time that are all completely uninformed. That makes for a very good trading asset where you can like eke out 5, 10.

You mean, you mean technical trading asset, right? Like there are no fundamentals for this thing, correct? Really just like It's just charts. It's the stuff that TradFi people consider voodoo. But I guess when there's a zero fundamental asset like SUI with just a bunch of, just a bunch of psychology, dude, consider, consider it all you want.

Like it works, right? The thing is with, with, with SUI, it's actually better distributed than any, than any meme coin.

Yeah, that is true.

It's like reasonably, like reasonably distributed.

Meme coins tend to be more concentrated.

Here's the thing, like, let's say, let's say you like really hate this thing. Like you think that this thing is trash. I'm going to tell you how to trade it. I'll tell you how to short it. It's very simple. In almost every crypto asset that you see, when it goes up like this, it has a moving average that for some reason it respects. And this is voodoo. And for SUI, that happens to be the 50-day moving average. Since September 1st, it's broken above, it's retested it 1, 2, 3, 4 times, and that has been the bottom. This is, this is, this is its established trend.

I'm pulling this up now.

What you want to do is you want to wait for SUI to break below that moving average for 2 to 3 days, and then you want to wait for a bounce. Like, break below the moving average, then you wait for a bounce, and then you short the bounce.

Dude, this is—

and then I'm telling you, I'm telling you, this will work. Like, like, bookmark this. We'll come back in a year. I'm gonna— I'm telling you now, this is gonna work. Then you wait for the bounce. And then you short it because that bounce is a relief bounce, but the trend has been broken. And then the thing is going to go down 80%.

You can—

I will— I'm telling you, there's a, there's an 85% chance that this happens. Like, this is, this is, this is a very high hit rate trade.

I would be shocked. Well, okay, never mind. Let me, let me start over. I I think that this is a terrible market to short anything. We— I think we're going into like white-hot mania phase sometime this year. So I wouldn't want to be short anything, especially not some random altcoin that goes up every single week for I don't know what reason. However, however, you might— like, if you're right, I will give you your flowers. I will, I will capitulate.

I didn't say short it now. I said short it when it gets below the 50-day moving average. And then it goes below for 2 to 3 days, and then wait for the next bounce and then short that. Because at that point, the thing's over.

I'll be watching.

And, and the reason that the thing is over, it's very simple. People are buying this thing because it's going up, and they don't know whether when it goes down, is it a pullback or is it the end of the trend. And so the way that Trends die is just purely, purely, purely technical. It's purely technical the whole way down. And so once it breaks below that moving average that has been support this whole time—

trends in crypto, to be, to be clear, trends, trends in crypto, the thing—

well, things with no real fundamental value behind them. Yeah, once it breaks below that, people start to sell. But they're always the, the delusional hopeful that if it's down too much from the highs, they're going to buy it. That causes the bounce.

Yeah.

But by that point, the trend is broken. And all of the people that were— it was too painful to sell the thing on the way down, that know that the trend is broken because that's what, that's what they watch. They start selling.

Yeah, I buy that.

And like that, that's the, that's the whole, that's the whole psychology behind it.

Basically what you're saying is like, identify a way to like a metric or a heuristic that tells you when the air is starting to come out of the balloon and then get short before the balloon's deflated too much. Like, I totally buy that. And my, my TradFi brain struggles with technical analysis because in assets with fundamentals, technical analysis is voodoo for the most part. I mean, it'll help you gauge sentiment and trends are real. I believe in trends, but, um, for the most part, if you're trying to make money trading trends and you ignore fundamentals in markets like equities or commodities, You know, you need to have your, your head examined. However, here SUI is one of those things. It's like XRP too. It's just these— they look like random number generators to people who aren't like deeply involved. And there's so few people who are deeply involved that it makes the rest of us wonder what's going on with this thing. So I agree with you. This isn't like a Doge or a Bitcoin where the community is just like— where CT just loves the coin. This, this one will tank hard. I, I like your, your idea. I'm going to, I'm going to keep an eye on that 50-day moving average and watch. I'm going to see because, man, it would be, it would be a collective sigh of relief from the crypto community if like vaporware L1s just disappear, you know. I mean, not nothing against Stewie. I'm sure they— I'm sure they're good people working on it. But like, for the traders out there who are trying to make sense of the market, this is a— this is a real asterisk, something that just like kind of makes you question yourself and your process.

No, yeah, totally. I mean, look, at the— at the end of the day, a lot of the— a lot of these types of trades just boil down to pure market psychology of the holders.

Yeah.

And when does technical analysis work versus when it doesn't? It's very, it's very important to understand. If there's an excess of uninformed market participants, then technical analysis works because technical analysis is simply psychology at the end of the day. And it's not psychology in the sense that, well, a lot of people think that technical analysis works because other people are doing technical analysis. That's not really why it works. Why it works is that when there's a mass of uninformed market participants, the concepts of support and resistance and trends are ingrained in their mind, uh, sort of without even knowing any technical analysis. And I'll give you, I'll give you a very simple example of this. Um, when something breaks out above a previous high after a retracement, the psychology is that it, in terms of technical analysis, that it should keep going up. And that's not because people are charting it and looking at the breakout. That's because the people that sold it at the previous high watched it go down, felt good about themselves, probably didn't buy back in, and then it got back up to their previous price and they start to panic and they go, did I make a bad sale? Let me get back in.

Yeah.

And so they're not really doing technical analysis, but that's the fact.

You're sort of mapping their, their sentiment onto existing technical indicators. I mean, that makes sense.

And so, and so in order, in order for that to work, right? So I mean, another example of this is you know, resistance, right? If something, you know, like let's say Bitcoin goes to $100,000 and then it sells off and you didn't sell, then the next time it goes to $100,000, you're thinking to yourself, well, the last time it hit $100,000, I felt like an idiot for not selling. Let me sell again here. Or let me sell this time, right? And so they're not drawing a line, but in aggregate, what they're doing is they're reinforcing the idea of support and resistance because of these missed opportunities. And so in order for technical analysis to work really well, you need a mass of uninformed market participants, which is why if you look, it doesn't work so well when you're in a bear market. It works really well when you're in a bull market. And so you have to understand, uh, you know, the different tools.

And certain technical analysis will work really well in a bear market, which is like CTA-style trend trading. Oh, we're below the moving averages, so be short. Like, that, that works well in a bear market, kind of.

It's very choppy. That's the thing with the bear market. Like, bear markets are extremely choppy, uh, and I found that like, yeah, technical analysis tends to be disrespected a lot more. Like, if you go look on a— like, if you go look on a 30-minute chart on a lot of coins, technical analysis, like, works like magic in, in a market like this. In 2022, that wasn't true at all. Like, they just, you know, I mean, you know, something would go up 10% and go back down 10% and go down 5%, then go back up 10%. And it was just very difficult to use technical analysis even to judge the, the relief rallies. It was also because a lot of it was event-driven, right? So for example, when Three Arrows collapsed, uh, we nuked down to $888 on ETH and then rallied back up to $2,000 in the span of like 2 weeks or 3 weeks. There was no technical analysis that could predict, like, technical analysis doesn't predict that. You can't use—

no, that's right. And also, you know, the biggest F-you rally in the 2022 bear market was the March rally in Bitcoin up to $48K. That, that headfaked literally most of the space into thinking that, that the 2021 bull run was still going and that we were just going to hit fresh highs. And then all it did from there was goes straight spiraling into the abyss. But yeah, I take your point. I mean, I've always been skeptical of technical analysis because it just doesn't work for assets with fundamentals. And I don't think it's going to work particularly well for, for the AI coins that we, we mentioned earlier in the podcast, because those are, those are less like technical trades than they are, I think, catalyst trades. Like, people are expecting developments for— in, in the AI space, uh, especially where it meets crypto. People are expecting agents to do new, interesting, unexpected things. Bitcoin, it's probably not a technical analysis asset as much as SUI might be because people are expecting fundamental news to come out related to Bitcoin. SUI, I think you bring up a really good point. That may be the perfect one for, for, uh, for technical analysis because the participant base is extremely broad. It's not like some random niche of guys on, on Phantom wallets, uh, trading, you know, PopCat or Bowdoin. It's, it's like, it's pretty well distributed. So there's a big participant base. It's on all the major exchanges, but no one's expecting like a major product to come out on SUI. No one's expecting SUI to solve payments. And like, I guess in terms of differentiating between catalyst assets, technical assets, and then just like random niche little meme coins, one interesting, uh, one interesting anecdote. Back in 2013, you know, I was good friends with a lot of the Ripple people. And one of the ways that they kept their token pumping back then, when it was worth less than 1 cent, you know, they would talk about it and pump it up and, you know, keep people buying it is they would— they, even though it was just kind of like a meme coin before people knew what a meme coin was, they tried to make it into a catalyst asset by like, oh, we're announcing a partnership with American Express, or oh, we're We're like launching this remittance corridor with Santander and we're going to make a bunch of marketing materials and send them out to the world so that people think that legitimate things are happening on Ripple. Like, that's how— obviously it was all vaporware and no one actually used XRP for anything, but like they, they basically made their tokens seem like something that retail could invest in with an expectation of future adoption on the basis of these like announcements, biz dev partnerships, you know, whatever. I, I'm sure that Sui is going to try to do stuff like that, but I don't think anybody believes it. I think like the market's too mature for that to work in 2025. So I think you're right. Maybe this is literally just like, um, it was like Cardano. It's just something you, you trade with charts and trend channels and support and resistance. I hadn't thought of it like that, but you know, these podcasts teach me new things.

And yeah, that's fair enough.

What else should we talk about? I mean, the market, like, we expect it to go up. We're, we're still ranging even though we've just pumped from the bottom of the range. We talked about SUI, which is the big question mark. We talked about these, these AI agents. How's the weather in Florida right now? What's What's the temperature?

Weather in Florida is good. It actually got kind of cold.

It's a little bit cold here in France, 53 degrees in the south of France right now.

Yeah, that is cold. But for Florida, I think it hit 55 yesterday at night. It's nuts. Yeah.

Hank Clements.

I think if we've devolved to talking about weather, that means that the market's pretty tame. Yeah.

Hold on to your cycle bags. Don't do anything stupid. Don't pay too much bid offer. Don't listen to us. This isn't investment advice. That's basically the summary, right?

It's true. And thank you for tuning in. I appreciate it.

Good times. Until next week, Avi.

Adiós, amigos.