Why Is Crypto Dumping? | 1000x Live

it's very difficult to hold altcoins for an extended period of time outside of just trading them. You can trade AAVE, you can trade UNI, you can trade, uh, L1s, but I do think in general Bitcoin is the only thing that feels okay to hold in this environment. So I do think that there's a pretty good trade here to just be long Bitcoin dominance. And that probably will pay dividends.

I couldn't agree more. It's not like a moment to just sell all of your crypto and forget about the asset class. If we do get a Trump outcome, which is looking increasingly likely on November 5th, there's going to be— there's going to be some pretty crazy upward price action, some of the most parabolic sort of bull euphoria type candles that the market has seen since 2021. And you don't want to miss out on that. Meanwhile, like Oh my God, this is definitely a good time to start consolidating line items, getting out of crappy tokens, getting out. Like, you can see the market starting to get illiquid. It's starting to get panicky that we've got a long road until the election, and I don't think there's going to be any substantial bidding or new entrants between now and then. And we're live.

All right, hey everybody, welcome back to another Thousand X live stream. This stream will not be brought to you by helium or bad Wi-Fi. Cross your fingers, Jonah. Let's see if I can make it the whole time.

I think you can. We can do this.

I love, uh, love your background, by the way.

Thank you. It's kind of how I'm feeling right now. It's, uh, it's one of those markets where You know, I do believe that we're in, you know, kind of a mega trend upwards. I do think that Bitcoin is headed north of $150,000, not financial advice, at some point before we enter the next nuclear bear winter. Um, but what's freaking me out and what I would be if I didn't have a framework to kind of cling to right now, I would be panic selling. Um, the reason why I'm kind of like a little freaked out and panicky but containing myself and doing nothing is because crypto is so election dependent right now. I'm not talking about Bitcoin. I think Bitcoin is going to perform no matter what, but all of the other tokens out there that aren't BTC are really hinging upon this sort of binary outcome. On the one hand, you have a guy literally running on America's very first pump your bags platform, right? Donald Trump is like issuing NFTs, starting DeFi projects with his son, like, like Trump, Trump Cards. It's ridiculous, you know. He's like showing up at the Bitcoin conference. On the other hand, you have what feels like a continuation of, you know, the Gensler era stranglehold on crypto I don't think crypto is going to be too happy about another 4 years of just getting, you know, abused and beaten down with the regulatory hammer, uh, you know, fighting, fighting a government that has infinite resources. So like, this overhang of the prospect of another 4 years of what we've currently— of what we've just experienced, like, that's not going away for 3 months. Trump's odds could be 80% and we still wouldn't price to perfection. Like, the threat of that is just too, too big. So I'm struggling to see how the market performs in the next 3 months, uh, until Election Day. And I'm kind of wondering, like, what am I doing? Like, why, why shouldn't I just be shorting a bunch of perps right now against my bags and buying them back after we bleed out a little further in, in this sort of, like, downward sloping trend channel? What do you think?

Honestly, I'm 100% on board with that. And the issue, the issue really is that We've just lost interest in crypto. People have lost interest in buying it. People have lost interest in trading it. It's gone from being, you know, a hot topic of conversation to something that people have genuinely stepped back and they go, well, I don't really know. Hence the background. I like what— I don't know what to make of this thing because obviously Kamala has made statements about being more supportive of crypto than Biden was. But the issue is that the two paths are so massively divergent. In the world of Trump, the probability that Bitcoin becomes a reserve asset of the US government go from negative 50% to positive 5%. And that's huge, right? That 5% probability, I don't, 100 times you live through the next 4 years of the Donald Trump presidency, it's very unlikely that it happens, but there's a world in which it does, right? And so that is obviously extremely good. The thing that we know is going to happen if Trump gets in charge is that there's going to be a concerted effort to introduce better regulation for DeFi assets, for tokens, to make tokens more like a security, right? To make them more like a— more like an equity, where it'll be easier for things like Aave, Uniswap, all these projects to actually pass out cash flows to the token holders and register under perhaps a less strict guideline, right, relative to running a company. And in the world of Kamala, alts probably go to zero. So the markets, as we know, we're traders, what do markets hate the most? Markets hate uncertainty. And so taking all of this talk and turning it into a more actionable take, is that it's very difficult to hold altcoins for an extended period of time outside of just trading them, right? I think you can trade AAVE, you can trade UNI, you can trade, uh, L1s, but I do think in general Bitcoin is the only thing that feels okay to hold in this environment. And the reason that I say that is because kind of regardless of the election outcome, obviously it's better if Trump gets elected for Bitcoin but it's not bad for Bitcoin if Kamala gets elected. It's not, you know, a death knell like it is, like it is for alts. So I do think that there's a pretty good trade here to just be long Bitcoin dominance, and over the next 3 months— or sorry, 2, 2 months— I think that probably, that probably will pay dividends. Obviously, you know, that there'll be one-offs like, like Aave doing well on the back of Donald Trump's, uh, son, I think Don Jr., announcing that he's going to use it to build.

Yeah, I mean, I couldn't agree more. I think, I think that, you know, I— one of these— it's not like a moment to just sell all of your crypto and forget about the asset class, because I think that, you know, if we do get a Trump outcome, which is looking increasingly likely, on November 5th, there's going to be— there's going to be some pretty crazy upward price action. Like, I think we could enter some of the, some of the most parabolic sort of bull euphoria type candles that the market has seen since 2021. And you don't want to miss out on that. You don't want to dance between the raindrops and miss out on all the money when you could have just hung on. Meanwhile, like, oh my God, this is definitely a good time to start consolidating line items, getting out of crappy tokens, getting out— like, you can see the market starting to get illiquid. It's starting to get panicky. Like, sure, it's not Election Day, but that we've got a long road until the election, and I don't think there's going to be any substantial bidding or new entrants between now and then. I mean, maybe one strategy is options, right? My old favorite thing to trade. Like, Deribit's listing expiries on election night, just kind of cool. Like, you can sort of gamble on that. Maybe, maybe what you're supposed to do is like take the October ETH $3,000 calls or like the $2,800 calls and just sell them to finance like buying some, uh, buying some November Election Day calls. Or, or just sell the, sell the ETH October expiring calls against your length to sort of collect a little bit of yield if you don't want to trade perps or do any of that stuff.

Um, I think, I think, I think, I think that's a reasonable trade. I mean, I just want to point out one thing that you said, which is the, the way that, the way that Bitcoin has been trading, just ridiculously low liquidity. The tick sizes— I mean, normally what you see is Bitcoin will move a dollar at a time. And if you're staring at the charts like I do way too much, you're noticing that Bitcoin is now moving $5 to $10 at a time, which tells you that there's very, very, very little liquidity in this market. The way that Bitcoin has been trading is effectively as though one person is dictating price action. And you kind of saw that yesterday, right, where Bitcoin held up in the face of a 3% equity sell-off during the actual session. But then after, when Asia came on, I think it was basically just a few, few major sellers came in and just completely, completely nuked the price. And it was it was a very, very weird sell-off where there weren't that many liquidations in the grand scheme of things, and they weren't orderly liquidations. It was more of just gaps, right? You would hit a stop and then Bitcoin would gap lower $200, and that's a, that's a very bad market environment for up, right? Yeah, that's normally a market environment where things go down. And the other thing that stood out to me is that the last We'll see what happens today, but the last 5 days we've seen outflows from the ETFs. And my entire bull thesis for September that I talked about for a while was predicated on the fact that we would see new inflows into the ETF and into crypto, specifically because people weren't going to make decisions over the summer. And when I saw that outflow on, uh, that Tuesday or yesterday that made me, that made me very, very nervous.

Some, some of those, some of those ETF flows, we need to be careful though, some of those ETF flows are, uh, just basis unwinds. Like, people were probably long CME and perp basis and just unwinding it as the market came off and those bases collapsed. Like, long ETF, short perp, or short future on the CME. So some of those outflows are just like, oh, the arbitrage is gone, let me unwind the trade. So it's not like actual risk exiting the market. Some of it is though.

That, that, that's fine and all, but I was expecting to see inflows. Yeah, and we didn't. And when you're faced with your expectation and reality doesn't meet it, you have to adjust your— you have to adjust your thesis. So right now, I mean, Bitcoin's at $57,900, and the way that I'm viewing this is I'm definitely not— I'm definitely not positioning very long. If anything, I think you can, you can probably short the market with a stop above, uh, you know, well, actually, I won't tell you where the stop is, but I, I do, I do think that you're, you're probably looking at some short-term down before we get, before we get up. I mean, I'm definitely a buyer, uh, 52, 53, but right now there's, there's no, there's no real momentum in the market, and I think that the the up move from today was really just a one large buyer stepping in the market, and I don't really trust it.

So yeah, I mean, the market's trading like—

gun to my head, you're probably supposed to be, if you're short-term trading, looking for places to sell, not looking to places— looking for places to buy.

I agree. I mean, I think like you have a point, right? When things get illiquid and gappy and the market just starts to trade like some forgotten illiquid commodity on the last day of the future before it like expires into physical. And it's just, it trades like, like one of these forgotten markets. You're supposed to be super careful. And, you know, I look at the Bitcoin chart, it doesn't feel volatile because we're still, you know, if you zoom out, we're still chopping around in this like super crappy kind of 55-bit at 65 range. But like it goes from $59K down to $55K, back up to $58.5K in like 12 hours, right?

Jonah? Did we lose Jonah this time?

I just clicked the back button. That's ridiculous.

I thought, I thought you disconnected. Like, oh no, I guess it's Jonah's turn to disconnect.

No, I literally hit the back button. I'm sorry everyone, I'm sorry Avi. Yeah, you trade from $59K down to $54K, back up to $59K, and it's just like, what, what is this? Like, is this like a milk future, or is this the world's most important digital currency that's supposed to be hyper liquid and trade like tens of billions of dollars per day? It's, it's, it's not looking good. And so, you know, I'm normally not the kind of person to trade actively And I do— I am extremely bullish medium to long term. I do think, you know, this is not a political statement. It's just, you know, the poker player in me thinks that Trump is going to win and we're going to go directly into like banana zone trading, um, 2021 style during his administration. Um, so I don't want to sell and then miss that. But at the same time, like, I'm just kind of— I'm kind of like getting ready to break my rule, get out the old cold wallet, send a bunch of coins to, you know, an exchange and sell a bunch of coin margin futures, uh, against them. And, and just play for this. The market's just heavy because of this overhang that we know isn't going away, right? And this isn't one of those markets where it's like, oh, the price goes too low and then all of a sudden like fundamental demand kicks in, which is kind of how crude oil works, and then you have this like entirely new exogenous, uh, group of buyers coming in like buying it to put in their airplanes and cars and whatever else. Like, it doesn't work like that. This isn't a commodity. This is Avi, actually, you recommended the George Soros book. I recently cracked it open, and this is— this market is just so reflexive that moves like this, especially with a huge headwind like election uncertainty, gets super reflexive.

I mean, let me just ask you this though. Is you getting out your cold wallet a bottom signal? Maybe, maybe, maybe you're a little bit slow to move. Maybe everyone else has gotten out their cold wallet already, and that's, that's why we're going down, and now there's kind of nobody left to sell.

I—

the, the thing, the thing that I struggle with is that, I mean, you can be— you can, you can definitely be short, or you can reduce, you can reduce exposure. But I, I view the max downside here as $50K, right? So is that, is that worth risking, risking the up move? With that in mind, I also view the max upside as $65K. It's— I think we're just not going to start trending until we get clarity on the election, right? So, so the, the idea here is that, you know, if you're, if you're an active trader, you, you know, you use what I call the Costanza rule, which is that anytime anything's crazy— like, you know, I say crazy, but quote unquote— anytime you get a large up move, you sell, and anytime you get a large down move, you buy. And that probably works.

That's called a range trade. Why is that the George Costanza trade?

Because, because you do, you do the opposite of what your instinct is, right? Which is to, to bet, to bet on the, uh, you know, like for example, if Bitcoin— I mean, a great example of this was when Bitcoin went, went up to $60,000, $65,000. I think a lot of people piled in thinking that we, thinking that we were about to start trending, trending up again. And then it went straight back down. And then more recently we sold off to $55,800. And, you know, everybody— I want to say everybody, but a lot of people, including myself, thought that we were going to go down a lot more. And then when we reverted, I, I think a lot of shorts got stuck in, which I think is one of the reasons for this, for this move here from 56.4 to 58.5. It's just a lot of people short covering, and now we're sort of done with that. So it's, you know, whatever, whatever your, whatever your instincts are like, oh man, like it's really gonna like die and break down here, maybe you should start buying. Or, oh man, it's really going to break up higher, it's probably start selling until we get a catalyst in the market.

We're on the lows of the range, um, I'm— I'd probably be stupid to sell them here. Like, whenever I want to sell, I'm not thinking about a price target, I'm just irrationally thinking like, oh my God, this thing looks so bad. And I, I'm not— I'm very disciplined. Like, I normally don't overtrade. If anything, I tend to avoid the pitfalls of overtrading, which is the worst thing you could possibly do to yourself in a market like this. But even now, every time I look at the screen, I just get this itch to sell stuff, and it's bad. So I think you're right. I think it's like, hey, maybe the trade is like, send those— get out the cold wallet when Bitcoin's trading like $65K, $66K on a Trump Polymarket spike. And then, uh, and then buy it back around basically here, you know.

Yeah, the one thing that I'll say, I don't think we're necessarily in the bottom of the range. I think we're kind of in the middle, and that's why my personal view is that in this type of market, you kind of— you really only want to trade on the extremes. That, that's when you— that's when you want to get in. And the other thing is that you don't necessarily want to trade price. You want to trade price action. So when you see—

that's, that's not congruent with what you just said though. Like, I agree you only want to trade on the extremes, A, because we're ranging, B, because overtrading is literally death in this market, so you need to bake in the maximum margin for error that you can. But if you're— but momentum is like— price action is most prevalent in the middle of the range. Like, at the extremes it's reversing, and how do you trade that? Like, explain.

So price action— yeah, I mean, I— price action is most prevalent at the extremes of the range.

Oh, I, I— sorry, what I meant was like momentum. When you're moving from the bottom to the top, you're going to feel the most momentum in the middle of the range. At the top, the momentum is going to die, and at the bottom, the momentum is going to die and it's going to reverse. So maybe if you could like clarify for the listeners what you mean by trade price action, maybe I've just misinterpreted what you meant.

So when I say trade price action, what I mean is, let's say, let's say you're short, let's say you're short from $60K, right? You sold $60K and you want to close that short at some point. The way that you close the short and the way that you think about closing the short in this particular market environment, or I mean really kind of in any market environment personally, unless you have an overall thesis of, okay, this is going down for a long time what you do is you say to yourself, I'm going to close when something extreme in the market happens. I'm going to close when there's a big liquidation event. And that's what— I mean, that's what's been happening in this particular market, is when you get a large liquidation event or you get a dislocation in the market, that has tended to be the bottom. And so then you want to close. I mean, what, what I'm trying to— what I'm trying to articulate here is that if you're short 60 and you say, I'm looking for $54K, and then you trade $55.5, but you trade it in a way that is very clearly a dislocation where a lot of people just got stopped out and their liquidations— because this isn't a trending market, you can probably just cover.

I see what you mean. Okay, so you're basically saying like within the range you identify your little mini pockets of euphoria and despair and trade and trade there. I— now I'm with you. I understand. Well, speaking of a little mini pocket of despair, the altcoin space looks dire. Like, I— every— I mean, Aave's performed like— there are a couple of other ones we could talk about, some of the more, um, buzzy projects like Grass, later in the podcast. But like, you know, like, your, your 9 out of 10 alts are looking like they're getting mulched right now. And that, that might be the smooth downtrend into election day. Frankly, I think people are panicking. Like, there's a lot of, uh, you know, nouveau crypto rich people out there who have either founded protocols or invested early, or they've got unlocks, um, and they're basically trying to take some profit before the Polymarket 47% outcome that everything just goes straight to zero. They're trying to lock in expected value.

I think a big, a big problem is also just the bag holders. One thing that's insane to me, so if you're, if you're listening and you feel bad because you didn't perform that well this, this, this year, I want you to remember that there are a lot of people out there that get paid money to manage crypto, quote unquote, professionally. Most funds are down a lot this year. And that's insane because Bitcoin's up 40%, but most funds are down. And the reason that most funds are down despite the move from BTC is that on the move from $30K up to $72K, those funds held a lot of altcoins, and then— or they weren't— sorry, they weren't exposed to Bitcoin. Maybe they were 50% long because everyone had PTSD from FTX. And then once you got up to 72%, they realized, oh my God, we're really, really underperforming Bitcoin. And then they all moved to alts, and then Bitcoin went down 20% and alts went down 80%. And I think a lot of people are actually still stuck in this performance, you know, they have performance anxiety. It's one way of saying it, is they're really worried that Bitcoin's going to get away from them. And that their underperformance is going to look even worse. So it's really hard for them to actually get out of the quote-unquote high beta positions because that's kind of the only way they're going to outperform. But I think it's slowly starting to happen now because, you know, it's just like the trade is just clearly not working, right?

Yeah, it's not. And the other thing is it's so hard to be a professional, like, linear crypto trader in an institution right now because the expectation is that you outperform Bitcoin, right? But if Bitcoin goes down, you're not getting paid either. So you're, you're basically— your incentive structure is to just get long levered Bitcoin in the form of picking the right alts. And then when you go into an altcoin bear market, which is, I would say, what we're in right now, frankly, to call a spade a spade, um, Bitcoin dominance is on the rise, altcoins are not looking good. Our, our boy Pavel Durov is like on house arrest. Like, it's You know, it's, it's not quite 2022, but the alt space is, is looking, is, is looking pretty shaky, right? When you're in that situation and your job literally incentivizes you to hold altcoins and you're down money, then you start to approach your drawdown. And it doesn't matter at this point whether you're trading crude oil or interest rates or crypto. Once you start to approach your drawdown, like, you have to cut risk to avoid getting fired. Then it becomes harder to dig yourself out of the hole. You can't short alts at this point because they're already on the lows, and a lot of the PERP funding has gone negative at this point, so you just have to pay to do that. It's like this weird nuclear death spiral. And like, I experienced it, a lot of others, uh, another problem, crypto money managers. Like, when I, you know, I had 16 years of professional trading experience and like a pretty stellar track record when I first started trading crypto institutionally. I traded at PA before that successfully. Trading it institutionally, like, a lot of these guys are true believers and they're just— they like to be long. They don't know how to be short. Like, it takes a guy like you, Avi, who's been through multiple cycles and seen what happens during these types of moves to have the maturity to get short. Like, a lot of the first-time managers out there are, from what I've heard, struggling because of the Oh, we're in a bull market, I have to be long to outperform Bitcoin type bias. And they don't know how to really get short and trade around these things. It's friggin tough. It's a tough—

yeah, tough. And the other thing, I also do think— I also do think a bit of it is just, I mean, the incentives aren't there. I mean, the incentives are obviously to be long, so it just doesn't really make sense to be short. Because again, if you— if you're— if you're in crypto and people have invested their money in you to make money on crypto and then crypto doubles and you lose money, it's kind of, it's kind of tough. That actually happened to, to a fund, very sad, back in, uh, post-COVID crash. They shorted like $4K, $5K, $6K, $7K, and then they blew up. It was, uh, it's pretty, pretty, pretty sad story because they were doing really well before that. I won't, I won't name, name names, but yeah, I mean, look, the, the opportunities in the market are there. They, they do, they do exist. I mean, if you're, if you're in the trenches and you're sort of a small-cap guy and you don't need to trade tens of millions of dollars, uh, to make money, there, there are still like probably the way that I think about it is that at least once or twice a month something interesting or new will come out in crypto, or there will be a quote-unquote obvious trade. You can't make a lot of money on them, but, you know, if you're trading a million bucks, you can make some money. I mean, I don't know if you saw, for example, Vista, that just came out. No, I don't own any. None of the funds that I manage own any. We can't really touch it, but it's at least like moderately interesting. It's a Pump.fund equivalent on Ethereum. Hmm.

Yeah. I mean, That's— that does seem kind of obvious now that you mention it. But I mean, like, you really have to cherry-pick those because the broader— the broader risk asset and macro picture right now is mostly, you know, heading south, right? Like, there's some— some noise about Nvidia we could talk about. Commodities, near and dear to my heart, are getting nuked, uh, for a variety of reasons. The stock market's kind of like on the highs, looking a little bit shaky, starting to come off. So crypto will correlate with these broader macro assets and trade down in sympathy. And crypto money managers who are expected to outperform Bitcoin when Bitcoin is trading lockstep with broader macro, like, and they can't touch anything outside of the crypto sphere, is a very, very tall order to outperform in that market. So I guess we could talk a little bit about what's going on with the broader macro picture.

Yeah, I mean, it's been, it's been a, it's been a tough market for macro managers as well, right? I mean, you have Nasdaq, Nasdaq's off a ton. You had the jolt today that— I mean, what I've noticed just from my own personal experience anecdotally is that whenever data comes out, the first impulse of the market is almost always faded. It's so interesting. It's like Nasdaq, Nasdaq went down, uh, hit, you know, I think -70 bps and then went, went straight back up. But I think what clear to me is that we're in a dangerous environment, you know, both technically and fundamentally for equities. And it's not just equities. I mean, commodities have been getting hit. Oil has been— oil's been getting hit. Uh, gold, you know, over the last few days has been getting— been getting hit. I mean, it's, it's sort of— it's tough out there. What's your take?

Yeah, I mean, just I— the one thing I do actively trade is, um, energy products: crude oil, gasoline, fuel oil, diesel, propane, all that good stuff. And what you're seeing in those markets is a confluence of factors. Number— the number one factor driving the weakness is the fact that the Chinese economy is slowing down. And so, okay, little commodities corner for a minute. I'm just going to go on my rant here. Hopefully it's relevant to all you guys who trade crypto because they are both trading sort of down in tandem with each other right now. China's weakening. And, you know, over the course of my nearly 20 years trading, um, you know, I've heard pretty much every 2 to 3 years there's a China scare. A bunch of people get short China and China-linked things and they get blown out, right? China is just this massive growth engine. They've lifted a billion people out of poverty in the last two decades. It grows at 8 to 10% a year like, like clockwork. It's— you do not fade China. There was the Great Financial Crisis, the 2015 Shanghai comp collapse, the, the non-performing loans, 3 different real estate crises, the COVID mismanagement, all this stuff. Everybody gets short China and then they get their faces ripped off. What's going on this time? Why is this different? Maybe. Well, basically China, as far as like the last 3 decades has been concerned was basically like the world of Deng Xiaoping's, um, liberal reforms and kind of like introducing a little shot in the arm of capitalism after all the, you know, tens of millions of people died during Mao, right? So capitalism kind of proliferated, all these people got lifted out of poverty, it was great. Now we have Xi Jinping kind of pivoting back towards communism. That happened like 2 or 3 years ago when he decided he was going to be a dictator for life. Um, you know, so basically my not-so-informed take— I'm not like a China macro expert— my not-so-informed take is that basically they've pivoted back to communism, and I don't think we can expect in the current regime, uh, continued growth at the rates that, that we've been seeing for the last few decades. So it's not going to be catastrophic. There's still going to be an amazing economic engine. They're just not going to be an 8 to 15% a year type of economy anymore. More GDP growth. So basically things are slowing down. Now one thing I am an expert on is monitoring the outputs of that. So like, for example, um, diesel, physical diesel coming out of China, uh, the— you can monitor the price of that in commodity markets, right? And when that price tanks, you know, there's very few ports that export that particular refined product. When China's booming, they don't really export much of it, and the price at those ports is super high because they're consuming most of it domestically. When the economy gets weak like that, price tanks because there are very few orifices that you can push that product out on the water through. And a lot of that product's getting pushed to the rest of the world right now. So when you watch those prices, those sort of like physical commodity prices at Chinese ports tank, you know that they're not consuming commodities that well. So like in commodity markets, we can see this slowdown, right? We can see it happening in real time. And then, uh, there's just too much oil floating around. The world's not— that, like, this summer was a dud in terms of driving season, flying season. Like, it was all, it was all a bit of an underperforming kind of, kind of environment. And so now we're going into winter, we're going into uncertainty mode with a bunch of elections, and it's just like commodities look oversupplied across everything. And also when you mentioned gold, That's not really a CapEx or an OpEx commodity. Like, oil's an OpEx commodity. You need it to operate the world. CapEx commodities are like base metals, like steel and copper. You need those to build the world, right? Gold is kind of neither. It's a precious metal. It's more like Bitcoin. But, you know, central banks buy gold during boom cycles. They don't usually tend to load up when they're struggling to, you know, keep people from doing civil unrest type shit. So basically it's all like the physical underlying demand indicators in the commodities market are all flashing bearish right now, um, and crypto is probably going to trade and equities are probably going to trade a bit with those markets until we get a new catalyst. I don't see a new catalyst until November. That's the end of my rant.

I mean, that was a, that was a great rant. I mean, it makes, it makes sense, and I do understand the distinction, the distinction with gold with gold there. I also understand here that I think that generally people don't necessarily pay attention, at least in crypto, to the markets outside of just the US equities markets. I will say that there— what's kind of interesting is that there hasn't been that much correlation between crypto and this boom. And one thing that we were debating on the desk today is, well, if Things are slowing down. If China's not growing as fast, the US growth starts to slow down, unemployment starts to go up, and the Fed starts cutting, doesn't that make nonproductive assets more interesting? And I think everyone's aware that right now the Fed is very likely going into a cutting cycle. And one of the reasons that I think we sold off a bit in the morning is because after the job, after JOLT came out, the probability of an additional rate cut went up, right? And then you had the whole market sort of sell off, but now it's back to where it was before, right? So there's actually been no, no major change. Bitcoin didn't really do anything, uh, until, until after that rate cut went, went back up, and then we got, we got a nice, a nice move higher. So I guess one, one question is, if we get, you know, a shrinking economy, if people, you know, if we do enter into recession but we do get a lot of, a lot of rate cuts, that still is somewhat good for Bitcoin as a non-productive asset, right?

Yeah, I mean, bad news is good news right now, and good news is bad news. So like, if the economy falls out of bed and the jobs numbers look weak, that increases the probability of faster rate cuts, and it increases the probability of Mr. Pump Your Bags winning the presidency, right? Which is also bullish. Meanwhile, if things start looking spiffy, like, um, Israel and the, you know, the ayatollahs and Benjamin Netanyahu are like shedding tears and crying and like signing peace and trade agreements, and Russia and Ukraine have détente and the economy starts booming all of a sudden between now and November. Like, I think we're going to see more of the same, frankly, in crypto. So it's one of those— this happens to you as an oil trader a lot. You're sort of like you find yourself like quietly, secretly rooting for chaos and disorder in the world. I don't know if Bitcoin is anarchic like that. What do you think? Like, does— is that kind of— is that kind of how you think about it?

No, I mean, Bitcoin— I mean, interestingly, like I was saying earlier, there's been some decoupling, at least on a day-to-day basis, from, from general, from general risk. So, you know, as chaos increases, I think, you know, you're going to see NASDAQ and S&P go down. and Bitcoin probably goes down with it, but I think it goes down less, right? And the reason, the reason that I think it goes down less is because in times where there's genuine chaos that we've seen, we've seen in the past, Bitcoin actually does correlate with gold a little bit more. And I think gold goes up in those, in those scenarios. But I do think it requires a flush out, a flush out event from BTC first. I mean, it's not, it's not going to be okay, you know, things start to break, the world starts to go nuts, and then Bitcoin immediately goes up. It's that Bitcoin in those markets tends to bottom first and then starts to— and then starts to go up because it finds buyers a lot more quickly than, you know, like Apple would in that— in that particular scenario. Like, how many people are buying, uh, buying an iPhone if that is a World War II— World War III is breaking out?

But that is a fantastic Fantastic point that you just made. That is really smart. And we, like, let's, let's dig into it a little bit and prod it. Like, the same thing happened— wait, what you just said happened in 2020, right? Like, everything nuked, Bitcoin got absolutely creamed, and then before the world really started to, to rally, Bitcoin just began its, like, unstoppable upward march to $69,000 a token. And I think what— I think like if I'm trying to just assign meaning to that type of price action, Bitcoin is a debasement hedge. If things get crazy, Bitcoin's the first thing to get nuked, and then the debasement happens, and Bitcoin's the first thing to protect you after that, right? It's not going to like perform on inflation or perform— like it may perform in a decorrelated fashion if we get regulatory clarity and suddenly like blockchain starts racking up a bunch of wins and bringing in a bunch of new users, but like Absent that, uh, Bitcoin will protect you even in a Kamala administration if they start debasing the dollar because of some crisis, right? Which is almost guaranteed to happen, feels like.

Yeah, what's funny is that I actually think that the spending and debasement accelerates under either administration, which is why I'm sort of bullish no matter what on, at least on BTC, once, once we get, once we get past the election. Uh, you know, it's, it's just one of those— it's, it's one of those things that you just have to survive. And that, I think, is a key component of just existing in the— this market, because it is so volatile, is just survive. Try not to get blown out and pick your spots to be— to make, to make aggressive bets. I mean, you know, at least for me, I mean, if Bitcoin— if Bitcoin goes down, if Bitcoin goes down back to 52, 53, I'm definitely I definitely feel very good about buying there and holding through, holding through the election.

Yeah, I mean, it's— being flat in crypto is the most dangerous position of them all, right? If you get stopped out, you can't trade or you can't take risk for a little while and you miss a huge rally, like 90% of the gains occur from, you know, very short periods of time. So if you miss one of those, you might have to wait years to make that kind of dough again, if ever. And so that's why I'm so freaking terrified of selling perps, even though, you know, Mr. Nervous Emoji behind me is how I feel. And I want to— like, being flat is just terrifying in this market.

Yeah, it is, it is. Um, I mean, I, I say that, I say that right now as I'm, as I'm leading short, but it's because— don't try this at home. Yeah, I'm paying attention to the market 24/7.

You're, you're plugged in. You're basically wired into the matrix, and you'll, you know, you'll buy it back the second you hit your stop. I think a lot of people aren't, myself included, just aren't that dialed in. So it's riskier to, to be flat for the rest of us. You're not really flat, you're just like, you're, you're just like monitoring your— it's, it's something else what you're doing.

Yeah, because I'm, you know, I'm looking, I'm looking for spots spots to get back in. I mean, the one, the one thing that I'm probably not going to sell for a while is Helium. I mean, that thing's just been doing so insanely, insanely well. They are— they're— I think they're, they're talking with the chairman of AT&T soon on a, on a stage somewhere. So that's, that's going to be interesting. I mean, what— well, I, I am, I am locked in. If you can see my eyes, I just keep looking at price. Uh, it's, it's, it's a, it's a horrible addiction. Yeah, especially, especially on days, especially on days like today, Jonah. I don't know if you miss it, but it's like I can't even look away.

And the thing is, you learn, you learn all day.

Yeah, like you actually learn a lot from watching price move. It tells you a lot about how Bitcoin moves in general and how markets tend to move in general, and some like autistic part of me, whenever I see the same pattern occur, you know, I'm like, oh, I remember that from 3 months ago. This is the exact same thing happened. And then you just, you know, that's why taking notes is so important. Then you just remember and then you just act it out. Uh, honestly, there's, there's nothing that will— there's nothing that will ever replace like the tens of thousands of hours that I've watched staring at this thing. Kind of fun.

That's what peak performance looks like. Just got to be dialed in. If you're not, somebody else take that money. I mean, I think ultimately for the rest of us who have other jobs, like, I certainly felt that little kick in oil today, but I watch Bitcoin all day every day because it is such a fascinating golden market. And I think that, you know, for the rest of us who aren't dialed into Bitcoin trading it as actively as Avi, as you are, like, you can earn money doing other stuff and then just buy dips, right?

And—

or, or not buy when you— when you're bearish, and then buy when you feel like it's bottomed out, right? You can play this market from one direction because we all have the same— you know, if you're listening to this podcast, you probably have the same long-term thesis as us, which is that this thing is gonna, gonna take over vast swaths of the global fiat economy at some point in the next 10 to 20 years. So if you have that North Star you don't have to sell, right? You can pick when you buy, and you can have— you can be like, well, all right, I missed this little rally, but I'm earning money doing something else. So during the next big, um, you know, firestorm sell-off, that, that's, that's when I'll start investing my next clip. That's kind of how I've played it the last couple years, um, and it worked out really well, frankly. It was a good time.

Yeah, I mean, I mean I, I think it's, it's great to have a separate income stream that you can just kind of funnel into this because over time, you know, I think, I think that wins. And it also, it prevents you— a lot of trading is obviously emotional and mental, unfortunately, if you're not trading 100% quantitatively. And so having a sense of security and safety while you trade is really important, which is why it's either, it's either a separate income stream or it's not trading the full amount of your stack and just trying to generate P&L and then pushing it towards the things that you like, you like long term. But having that, you know, stability, uh, is, you know, it really— I think it really, really helps you in this market. And speaking of stability, Bitcoin is like— it has not moved this entire, this entire podcast.

It's listening.

It literally— yeah, thank you, I appreciate it, Bitcoin. Thank you for listening to our podcast.

It's here as— it's here as, uh, like There, its name is Seawolf, and it just typed true bromance. Bitcoin stopped trading for a second just to comment on our bromance. Speaking of our bromance, um, world's greatest transition. I think one thing that I enjoy about these dialogues is like you can have two different styles of trading, two very different styles, and they can both win. Like even if I'm lifting Bitcoin from you at $55K, we could both be right because you're probably just gonna buy it back at $52K and I'm gonna hang on and then we'll be high-fiving at 60, and you're like, you'll have made a little bit more money than me, but neither of us really compares or cares.

Like, yeah, I mean, it's kind of like, it's kind of like having a friend that has a different taste in women, right?

Yeah, wingman.

Yeah, exactly. It's like, you know, you never have to compete over the same girl.

That's right.

Oh, that's what you like? Go have fun, buddy. I'll wingman you. But it's, uh, you get, you can see there's like literally nothing happening in this market right now.

Yeah, we have to— we just have to watch it. So, okay, so we've gone through this, like, this kind of like downward sloping trend channel slash range. We've gone through the altcoin nuking. We've gone through commodities. Are there any green shoots in this market? Like, should we be talking about Grass, about CryptoPunks, about, um, permissionless? I don't know, like, what should we— what should we talk through here?

Should we just— why don't we— why don't we go to the comments? Literally ask us anything that you could possibly want to hear, and we'll just do a live Q&A because the market— I've already given you my take on it.

All right, so let's see here. Darkness Ate Me writes, honestly, once you see the government printing, it's hard to unsee it everywhere.

Are—

so on that note, I'm just going to interpret a question out of that. Every time rates get cut I, I don't know how many tens or hundreds of billions of dollars need to come out of T-bills and go into risk assets. Are we just underestimating this massive inflow of capital into things like Bitcoin and stocks and other correlated assets? It's not quite printing, but it's, it's monetary easing, right? Are we, are we just like sitting here mid-curving this as like the world's biggest tsunami of capital lifts our space to new highs? Or a rate— rates— that's not a big deal.

I— there, there's an interesting discussion about this where somebody said, hey, rate cuts tend to, tend to lead to the market actually going down because it signals that the Fed is nervous about the, about the economy. And then we looked at, you know, what happens when the Fed actually starts cutting rates. And the answer is we have no idea. It's like 50/50 what the market does because it depends if there's actually a recession coming or not. And there's— when the Fed starts cutting, nobody actually knows, uh, not even the Fed. So, you know, it's, it's, it's one of those, it's one of those things that I don't necessarily think that you can trade super actively. The best way, in my personal opinion, to trade these data, you know, what the Fed is doing, whatnot, is you're trading it on the day or on like the 3 days, right? Because oftentimes you'll see, you'll see Bitcoin or you'll see equities move in a way where it reacts directly to how, you know, the data, data has come out that day, but it won't actually influence the direction. Uh, the only thing that really influences the direction is a large, is a large paradigm shift, right? Like, if it's so abundantly clear that we're entering into recession and the recession is bad, and then obviously, you know, you can, you can sort of, sort of reposition. I mean, the greatest example of this is, uh, post-COVID November, November '21, where there was just a paradigm shift when the Fed started to raise rates, right? That's, that's like a change in the market. What I always say is you have to understand why you made the money you did. So if you buy Bitcoin and it goes up because there's a huge injection of liquidity into the market, and then it starts— that liquidity starts to be taken away, then you have to, you have to get out, right? So it's about knowing what made you your money. That's again why this year I think that what made us our money was the Bitcoin ETF. Like, that made you all of your money. And the fact of the matter is that the last 5 days have seen outflows. And so how can I be super bullish until something changes?

Because 5 days of outflows doesn't mean that there will be another 5 days of outflows. But I take your broader point, right? Yeah, it goes up and it goes down. In and out, I guess. Okay. No, that's, that's really good take. My two cents on it is there are two kinds. I published a tweet about this that, that seemed popular with people. Um, there are two kinds of like rate cutting cycles. One is when there's been a crisis, like a deflationary shock. And so rates get cut very quickly to address that and try to buffer the economy. Uh, then the other type of rate cut cycle is when like inflation just sort of tapers off slowly. So the rate cuts come off slowly as a result. Um, like, we shouldn't mix up correlation and causation here. In the former, uh, there's a crisis going on, so things are looking pretty, pretty bad and prices are going down. Um, it has kind of nothing to do with the rate cut cycle. The second one, like, in a gradual rate cut cycle because inflation is coming off, that's like a stabilizing— stabilizing to stabilized type environment where you can start to get comfortable with owning risk assets. So, and also we've never seen this level of investment in short-term interest rate securities like T-bills in history. So there is a lot of capital sloshing around waiting to come back into risk assets. You know, fund managers are bullish the, you know, broader risk asset stock market type picture. So, you know, I think we're in the latter type of easing cycle. And so I think we've got some bold days ahead, but but we have to clear the election overhang. Like you said, Avi, markets hate uncertainty. So that's my take on that. Next one. Um, I want to ask you this as well. If you're invested in Helium, I think Helium is one of the coolest projects out there, but I don't understand why— what, what happened with HNT, IoT, and mobile? Their token ecosystem seems weird. Farming doesn't really make you that much coin at this point. Like, why Helium? Just, just narrative? Is it actually catching on as a network?

I'm going to tell you guys a secret. This is like a general, general secret about life and markets and, and how they move. And a lot of it has to do with fundamentals, but a lot of it doesn't. Uh, and what do I mean by that? I really like Helium. Helium's great. Uh, you know, it's the only product in crypto that actually is being used widely. It has You know, partnerships are coming for it. I mean, I don't know anything non-public, but just looking at, looking at Twitter, looks like partnerships are coming with AT&T. There's a lot to like about it. The token, and it makes, it makes revenue, not to justify the valuation, but it makes revenue. Now, if you look at the rest of the crypto space, there's basically nothing except for AAVE that actually is used and makes, and makes money. I mean, you can say, you can say Uniswap, but Uniswap is just used to speculate on things. I think at some point in the future, it'll be used for trading real assets. So what's my point of all of this? If I'm telling you that Helium can't be valued correctly based on, based on the terms of use, my point is that there's a lot of capital that needs to allocate to crypto. There's a lot of capital that needs to be invested. And there are a lot of people that need to feel smart. And so Helium makes people feel smart. And you can go to your investors and you can pitch it to them and you can own it. And as long as it's going up, that's really nice. So I like it. I like it in the short term. I like it for trade. Do I think that it's going to take over the world? Honestly, potentially. It's a great product. It's really, it's really nice. But that doesn't necessarily mean the token price will go up. They have to figure out how to actually deliver value back to the token prices.

Well, regulation can make that regulation could make that possible, right?

And this is— this is— this happens over and over and over, not just in crypto but in the traditional markets. There are certain things that people have to be allocated to. Just structure means a lot in this world. And if you can figure out why— what people are going to do based on what they have to do, then you can make money. Because the reality is that your very likely a minnow in the market. You don't have to move billions of dollars. So if you can figure out how the people that do move billions of dollars have to move their money around, then you can actually make, you know, you could, you could, you can clip, you can clip your, what I call your fee, right, on this. If you can think through sort of the logical steps of, okay, well, this is, you know, I mean, another example of this is when something gets added to the to, to an index, right? Yeah, tends to do better because people need to allocate to indexes, and then they weren't buying it before and they buy it— they marginally buy it more now because it's in the index that you have to buy. Um, that's why, you know, you'll see a lot of the technical analysts in— or the flow analysts in, in the TradFi world talk about, like, you know, like, what do people have to buy at the close? It's, you know, you can— you, you can do stuff with that information as long as you're not trading too much. So that's No, I think incentives, incentives rule the world. And that's something to understand, not only just about trading crypto, but trading the traditional markets and also just life in general is, you know, show me the incentive and I'll show you the outcome.

Very important. Speaking of incentives and indices, back in the Goldman days, um, before things were a little more tightly regulated, I just remember a salesperson would stand up and purposefully scream at the top of his or her voice, hey, for, you know, insert enormous asset manager, hey, uh, so-and-so needs to buy like a gazillion dollars worth of the Goldman Sachs Commodities Index, GSCI, dot dot dot, in 15 minutes. And all you just hear everybody just like clicking away, right? Is that—

this has got to be pre-2008.

Um, it was a while ago, let's just put it that way. Um, so yes, I'm pretty sure they're regulations and indices. Indices and incentives are very, uh, near and dear to my heart. Um, next question: how do you see the NVIDIA subpoena impacting AI coins in the medium term? I'll just answer that one right now. It's going to take 10 years.

Well, well, hold on, hold on. I mean, didn't— just before you, you go on, I thought I saw a Bloomberg headline that they didn't actually get subpoenaed.

Okay, so we'll just remove that and pretend that, that we, we knew that and that I didn't click on it. Um, what about you? We keep talking about AAVE on this podcast. Should we just quickly touch on why AAVE is gassing higher and what everybody— it's like the only thing in Ethereum land that's ripping.

Well, it's, it's also the only thing that makes, that makes real money, and it's the only project in crypto that is being talked about by the former president of the United States of America and potentially our future president as well, if all goes well. So it's, you know, I, I think, I think that it's just, it's just getting allocations right now.

Their new front end is so sexy and usable. Like, even, even I started degenning on it. Like, I, I moved some— I borrowed some ETH on it. The APY is like sub-3%. I Uniswapped my ETH into some wrapped TAO just because I wanted to be long TAO and I didn't want to deal with centralized exchanges. Like, and it's all super easy to lever up on Aave. Like, I, I like Aave. Um, Stani's a— Stani's a G. That— I've met him once, twice actually, and he's, he's like, he's a real— he's in it for the long haul. Um, I I understand why that token is pumping now though, because I, I missed that Trump was specifically calling out AAVE. I didn't realize that.

What we, what we don't know about the project yet is how much AAVE will actually benefit from it. Yeah, right. I mean, it's— if it's a fork, then it's probably a pretty good sale of this asset. If it's not a fork, or it, you know, pays fealty to Aave, that's, that's pretty good.

Yeah.

Um, the other thing that I'll say that you just have to be— you just, you just always have to be careful with— I really like using Velo data for this personally, but you have to check how many people are already in the trade, right? So when I look, when I look at Velo, I can see that there's about 500,000 coins that have been added to open interest, uh, since $95, and that's a sizable amount. That's $67.5 million in terms of, in terms of dollar amount. And so if it turns out that it's not getting, you know, paid fees or, or it doesn't generate real money from this Trump partnership, then a lot of that probably unwinds and you're probably stuck. Uh, so again, it's, it, and this is, this is what I've been trying to explain to people. It it's really difficult to buy and hold anything other than BTC because there's so much that hinges on, you know, a specific event or a catalyst or market structure or whatever else it is, right? The AAVE being at $137 is a function of— is a function of Trump and a function of a lot of people being in the trade. And so it's just really dangerous to hold that unless you're paying attention 24/7, because in a flash of an eye you could have a lot of people— you could have like $70 million hit the market.

Yeah.

Which is why, again, it's like, you want to own crypto and not worry about these things, uh, there are really only two things that you can do, in my personal opinion. One is own Bitcoin, or two is wait for something nuts to happen. Like, buy crypto when Bitcoin is down 50%.

Yeah, buy crypto, right?

Like, when, when things are down a ton. Uh, and right now they're still not down a ton, in my personal opinion.

Well, let's talk about— so Amir Aftab writes SOLANA in all caps, question mark, question mark, question mark. Let me, let me do you, Amir Aftab, for the brilliant question. Yeah, great question, Amir. Um, so I'm massively overweight Bitcoin because I don't want to worry right now. I want to chill out, and I feel super comfy and safe and also greedy in Bitcoin. Like, I still expect that one to perform like crazy no matter what happens. Between my ETH and Solana, I'm a little nervous about my ETH. Like, all this FUD, all this terrible price action is finally wearing on me. And what I'm kind of coming around to is the idea that, uh, Solana is worth, you know, fully diluted valuation, it's what, like roughly 10% of ETH, 10th of the, the, it's worth a 10th as much as ETH. ETH has so much further to fall under another 4 years of, um, Gensler-like characters strangleholding every major project, most of which are on ETH. And then If we get, you know, banana zone mode under Trump, you know, all the new big, hot, complex, important projects are getting built on Solana, it seems. So Solana has more upside and ETH has more downside. Like, they both have a ton of downside if Kamala wins, but if ETH has more, and if Trump wins, Solana has more upside. Should I just be rolling most of my ETH into Solana right now, would that be a smart trade to just like manage the segment of my portfolio that's riskier? Yes. Yeah, I think so.

I mean, like, I, I think it's like a pretty obvious statement. I mean, I, I view the risk-reward for Solana as just much better than ETH in general. Uh, I mean, ETH can go down 50% as easily as Solana can go down 50%. The only thing that I'll, um, say is that again, it's tough. Like, if you really want to be judicious about it, uh, there are people that bought a lot of Solana at lower prices, um, and it's locked, and they're going to want to lock in, lock in profits. So I think there's a little bit more reflexivity to Solana on the downside as people rush to hedge positions.

When does that unlock?

I, I don't know actually.

I was worried about FTX being the big unlock, but that seemed to just get swallowed up really quickly.

Yeah, I mean, it's the people that bought from the, from the estate.

Yeah.

So the other thing— oh, what's, what's—

there's somebody asking about Base, um, which I think is interesting.

I—

so here are two predictions. Prediction number one: PolyMarket migrates to Base within the next 6 months. Prediction number two, um, the Aerodrome ecosystem is going to grow like crazy. I'm really studying that project because I was looking at the biggest TVL and biggest DEXs by volume on Base. Aerodrome, out of nowhere, is like way bigger than Uniswap, way bigger than any of the others. I don't understand why that would be. I know the founder of Aerodrome personally, and so that's why I started studying it. And I'm blown away. Like, it's, it's pretty rare to see, uh, it's like, I think it's like the 5th fastest growing protocol of all time in terms of like fastest to $100 million revenue generated for, you know, liquidity, uh, farmers. So basically I'm kind of— Pump.fund's number 1, Aerodrome's number 5. It's on BASE. People are trading a ton on BASE on Aerodrome. I'm like, I'm kind of— I'm not really fully up to speed on this ecosystem yet, but since you asked Zach Zaharyev, I'm, I'm studying, uh, ways to farm liquidity on Aerodrome. Something's going on there.

Yeah, I, I like— so I, I like the idea of BASE. One of the most disappointing things over the last year and a half is the lack of retail that has come in and the lack of, you know, your everyday person coming in, coming into crypto, right? And a lot of people expected that once Bitcoin broke all-time highs, you would get this influx of new people that were interested in it, and then Base would do really well because Base is obviously associated with Coinbase, and there they would be able to direct a lot of people to go use the chain. Now unfortunately, that hasn't really happened, right? What we've seen is that it's the same old people doing the same old thing. and then it's new people just buying Bitcoin through the ETFs. And so I think Base, while interesting, at the end of the day is really just a bull market, right? Like Bitcoin $100K, a lot of new people in, in the industry, a lot of new people allocating for the long-term kind of play. It's, you know, I think the performance is going to be highly correlated with how many people Coinbase onboards. So I'm— I don't really know how to be bullish on it right now because I don't think that's happening anytime soon.

That's totally fair. And just one other side note, John Galt, one of our Twitter friends, says Solana FDV is a quarter of ETH FDV. So he caught me out talking out of my ass. Thank you for that correction, John.

Um, speaking of corrections, I want to speak on stream about our TON bullishness. Uh, on one of the podcasts, we were, we were pretty, pretty bullish about TON. Did not expect Pavel Durov to be arrested. That was, that was a bit of a blow, a blow to the thesis, uh, candidly. So we'll see, we'll see what happens. I still do think that they have— it's TON's game to lose in terms of onboarding people. Onto, onto their, onto their chain. But the unfortunate reality is that there are a lot of people that bought TON a lot lower, and there are a lot of people that were invested at like $1, $2 that are just starting to unlock right now. And this gives them a lot of reason to sell. And so at some point, I think TON is an amazing screaming you close your eyes and you just pile in a substantial portion of your portfolio into this thing. Uh, but that's probably like $2, like if, if we get the $2.

Interesting. Well, luckily none of this is investment advice, so nobody listened to you or did anything when you were, uh, bullish, Tom, and it went down.

So I, you know, I've said, I've said on multiple podcasts that it's really important to know that if you listen to me, you will lose all of your money, you'll lose your house, you'll lose your girlfriend, you'll lose everything.

What about your dog? Do you still have a dog?

I do still have a dog. He's not in here right now, unfortunately.

You lost your dog too? He just walked right out? Yeah, as soon as you started talking about Telegram, Baloo was just like, get me, get me the F out of this.

I'll tell you a secret. I don't know, I mean, you have kids, I have a dog. I don't have kids, but I'll tell you a secret about having a dog. I also have a wonderful, amazing girlfriend, uh, and the dog like loves her way more than it loves me because she's, she's very sweet and kind. And I tell the dog to sit and like try to teach it how to lie down. So it's, you know, it doesn't like— no, don't do that. Stop doing the couch. She's so much nicer than I am. Um, so he's not here right now, he's with her.

I wonder what produces more poop, your dog or my 2-year-old.

I feel like if we've asked that question, it's probably time to wrap the stream, Jonah.

Yeah, um, probably gonna have to edit that one out for the recorded version. But anyway, that's— dude, it's great talking to you. I always learn so much. I think, um, one of the reasons why I appreciate these podcasts is because these are the, these are the trader calls where you chop it up and figure out what you're gonna do. And I don't know, maybe I'm just gonna start buying a bunch of SOL/ETH on the highs because I'm late to the trade, but better late than never.

Um, you're better late than never. 100% agree with that.

Lucky I've got them both. Uh, and yeah, maybe time to invest fresh capital in Solana and just rebalance. At any rate, um, Avi, it has been excellent talking to you. None of this is investment advice. Um, thanks everybody for listening on the live stream. Looks like we hit 2,719 unique listeners a second ago. That is dope. I think we peaked out higher, like closer to 3K. This is amazing. Love you all. Thank you for the engagement.

Adiós. See you guys.