Elon Musks STUNNING New AGI Prediction

So there was a recent prediction made by Elon Musk that was actually quite shocking in terms of what he predicted for the future of artificial intelligence and AGI. So what we're going to do is we're going to be taking a look at that prediction, dissecting it and taking a look at absolutely everything going on. So the prediction that Elon Musk made was that we will have artificial general intelligence at some time in 2025 as a possibility. Now take a look at this clip because I'm then going to dissect his statement because he not only says AGI by 2025 as a possibility, but he also says some things as well.

Well, when, when things are changing rapidly, the, the ability to predict the future I think is, becomes a lot harder because of the rate of change is so great. But I think some things are fairly obvious to predict, which is that we'll have AI or AGI. That's at a level that it can really do almost any cognitive, I think really not almost really any cognitive task. It's just a question of when. One could debate is it, you know, smarter than any human at the end of next year or is it two years or three years? But it's not more than five years, that's for sure. So yeah, and give predictions, predictions, predictions. I'm sort of giving predictions at the 50th percentile of probability. So not, not, not like it will definitely happen. But if you say what, if you ask me, like what's the 50th percentile? Where it's like the, you know, you're kind of over under is kind of even that, that's where I, why, why I think it's probably end of next year before AI can do better than any individual human could do. And then, but there, there's a, it's a, it's a much higher bar to say, well, is human intelligence collectively. But if the rate of change continues, that's why I think probably 2029 or maybe 2030 is where digital intelligence will probably exceed all human intelligence combined.

Yeah, that clip was rather fascinating because I think the first half of it where he stops and says that all humans. So yeah, I think this was a rather fascinating clip. Elon Musk stating that by next year 2025, and that is not far away in terms of AI stating that, you know, we could really get an AI system that is better than every human at every task, you know, or the general level. And he's of course, you know, I think even if, let's say for example, that some people are taking the statement as it's not by next year. And some people are taking the latter part of the statement where he's stating that, you know, it could be within the next four years, three years. What he definitely did say was that it's definitely not going to be five years. And you know, surprisingly I did see that there was a lot of different comments, you know, to Elon about this on Twitter, which I'll show you guys in a moment. But when in a moment we also do take a look at some of the other industry statements by some of the industry leaders. I think you'll find that Elon Musk's statement isn't actually one that is actually shocking anymore. His one is actually pretty, pretty conservative, stating that we could get AGI by 2025 or 2026 or 2027, which is only three years away and is a really, really short amount of time to conceptualize for the amount of change that would occur in such time. I don't think that that is a surprising statement. What I rather think is surprising is the way that the world would change, I think after this technology is made a reality. Now he also said something at the end and he said that, you know, by 2029 that was going to be the stage where we would have, you know, biological compute, would exceed all level human equivalent compute. And of course, you know, it would exceed all level of, you know, human intelligence by that time and 2029. That is, to be honest with you guys, it lines up with what other people are saying as well. And even recently, Sam Altman said in an interview that, you know, he expects AGI to be a system that capable of delivering new research. And that was his definition. And I think that's important to understand because if he's stating that we're going to get there by 2029, that means that far before then we're going to be getting AI systems that are going to be capable of really, really high level tasks, high level abstraction, high level reasoning, and just doing a whole bunch of different things that are going to really, really shake up many different industries. So that's why this one was getting a lot of attention. Now there was also some other things and like I said, this video is going to dive into four of the main statements that Elon Musk has said. And you know, this is the. I also wanted to include some other stuff as well. So I wanted to include some of the industry insiders what they think as well. So Nvidia's CEO said that it's five years away, that would market at 2029. That's when he says AGI is going to be there. Shane Legg from Google DeepMind, the co founder and chief AGI scientist, the person who coined the term AGI, said that there's a 50% chance that AGI will be developed by 2028. So that's only four years away and that's a pretty big chance saying that 50% AGI will be in 2028. So that is something that's really fascinating as well. And also in addition to this, Sam Altman also did recently say that Ajax could be reached in sometime in the next four to five years, which is rather fascinating. And then like I said as well, Mustafa Suleiman, now the CEO of Microsoft AI, says that, you know, it's going to be within the next three years and stating that, you know, it's really, really possible and will become as ubiquitous as the Internet. So I think what the important thing here from Elon Musk's first point is that the next three to four years are going to really, really be monumental in terms of the amount of societal change that we're going to see, because AI is going to be the backbone of the next, potentially the next economic revolution in terms of what we see in terms of how value is created, how value is distributed. And I think this shouldn't be understated at all because this is something that is very, very, very important for people to pay attention to because the ramifications might be good, it might be bad. But yeah, the next four years, that kind of system, I think that is going to be a very exponential age. Now, Elon Musk also said something as well. Point number two was something that I found to be pretty, pretty fascinating because this was something that Elon Musk said that it just goes to show how crazy things are, even exceeding expectations. So point number two was Elon Musk actually discussing the compute and, and compute is just, you know, things that power AI. And he said that this is just increasing so fast that he, you know, doesn't really understand and most people can't really conceptualize how fast this stuff is moving.

So, I mean, I have to give credit to Ray Kurzweil and being actually remarkably accurate in his predictions. And in fact, if anything, like, I think he was perhaps a bit conservative in his predictions. So if you look at the amount of AI compute and the talent that there's sort of a human talent that is going into AI and the amount of compute that's Going into AI, it's, you know, at this point it's, it's, it appears to be increasing by a factor of 10. The AI compute, the dedicated AI compute appears to be growing by a factor of 10 every six months. You know, like, so it's like, like basically close to, I'd say almost like a 100x improvement per year, at least for the next few years. And AI compute coming online and it seems like probably a lot of the, the data centers, maybe most of the data centers that currently do kind of conventional computer will transition to AI compute.

So yeah, this is Elon Musk's statement on compute. Now there are actually two parts of the statement and I want to show you the second part because something recently did happen and it was so fascinating to how Elon Musk's statement was reflected in a recent announcement. So like I said before, this is where he's stating that, you know, the amount of compute that's going on is just absolutely insane. He said it's increasing by a fracture of 10x or 100x every year, which is in terms of like the amount of hardware that's coming online to be able to power these AI systems. I don't think he's lying because we are now in that discovery phase of where the broader population has now realized the true potential of AI. And I think a lot of people are trying to get in on this because they're starting to realize the transformative nature of this technology and how much it will impact everything. And because of that people are starting to invest more, they're taking it more seriously. Companies like Meta are shifting their entire baseline towards AGI. Other companies are also focusing on the production of that. And there is just so much investment going into this. That means, you know, the level of compute is increasing fast. Now in addition to that, because the level of compute is increasing fast, that means that the knock on effects that are going to be crazy as well. Now take a look at what Elon Musk says as well here because this is a crazy, crazy statement that he says.

So when you have that level of compute growth and it's sort of on steroids next level in terms of how much computer is coming online, then you're just going to have acceleration that is unprecedented. In fact, I've never seen any technology grow as fast as AI and I've seen a lot, you know, I've seen things fast, but I've never seen anything this fast.

So yeah, him saying that I've never seen anything this fast is pretty, pretty crazy. Because Elon Musk has been many different industries and seen a whole lot more than I have. But the point is as well is that, you know, how Elon Musk was just talking about, you know, compute is increasing fast and how this is just really incredible. This talk was actually recorded before this announcement. So he actually said this before Nvidia's GTC announcement where they announced the Blackwell, which goes to show the 1000x AI compute in just eight years, which is pretty, pretty incredible. And considering that we've done 1000x AI compute in just eight years, how much compute do you think we're going to be able to extract when AI starts improving itself in terms of being able to build more efficient chips and being able to build chips that are more energy efficient, more smaller, more dense, more compact, more efficient in just every single realm? I mean, what will the graph look like? Is it just going to go straight up? Is it going to continue? So Nvidia showcasing this and then Elon Musk just like a month before, because the talk was actually recorded a month before and it's only been released now. But him stating that compute is increasing so much and then Nvidia just goes ahead and released this. This is pretty crazy. I got to be honest with you guys. This is pretty, pretty crazy. And from what we can see here, this level of compute, it does look to be exponential. I mean, you can see 130 flops, 620 flops, 4,000 flops, 20,000 flops. I mean, it's pretty, pretty incredible what we've done with GPT four levels of compute. And that's why next level systems, I mean, if we can extrapolate that out into the future, how much, how crazy are these next level AI systems going to be? I think it's very, very hard to conceptualize. And for someone like Elon Musk saying I've never seen anything like this, it's just a bit of an eye opener because it leads us to understand that, look, all of these people have been in the game for much longer than any of us have been paying attention to it. And if they're pretty much stating that we've never seen anything like this, this level of compute is unprecedented. I think it's something that is truly, truly fascinating in terms of what the future is going to look like now. Elon Musk also did discuss statement number four was that Elon Musk also did talk about his percentage to doom. Now if you don't know what that P doom phrase means, it basically just stands for the Probability of doom. And it's a name, as it suggests, it refers to the odds that AI will cause a doomsday scenario. And essentially it's just a scale that runs from 0 to 100. The higher your score, the more you're convinced that AI is not only willing to eliminate humankind, but unnecessary going to succeed at carrying out the task. Basically your percentage. Doom is just percentage on which you think artificial superintelligence will end humanity due to our inability to control it. You know, how sometimes we'll ask an AI to do something and it doesn't understand the task and it does something that adversely kills us or adversely, you know, we didn't want. That's the percentage. Now he talks about this, and I think Elon Musk, you know this. It shouldn't be understated that Elon Musk has been talking about this for quite some time. This is not the first time he's been, you know, screaming from the rooftops about this since I think as early as 2015, as early as anyone can remember. So it's important to remember that he's still basically stating that this is an issue that does need to be solved.

The advent of superintelligence. It is actually very difficult to predict what will happen next. So I think there's, you know, there's some chance that it'll end humanity. I think that's, you know, like I said, I probably agree with Jeff Hinton that it's about, I don't know, 10% or 20% or something like that. And then I, you know, I think there's. I think the probable positive scenario outweighs the negative scenario. It's just that there's a. It's difficult to predict exactly. But I think we are headed for, you know, as. As I think is the title of your book, Abundant is the Most Likely Outcome.

So, yeah, that's where Elon Musk finishes off the statement stating that it could be entering an age of abundance. And this was something that was hard for some people to conceptualize. Obviously, there's many different futures with AI. You know, I've been discussing a lot and I've been planning a lot for the future of AI because I feel like most people aren't really prepared for. For what's to come, whether this scenario turns out good or whether it turns out to be bad. Because we know there's a variety of different problems that could arise from AGI, from companies becoming behemoths, from the loss of the meaning crisis, to just a whole range of Things that I generally want to be prepared for. But I think what Elon Musk is discussing here is that of course, the probability of an AI going rogue and killing humanity is not zero percent. Now, there were also some other important PDOOM statements that I wanted to show you all as well, because number one, this is the CEO of Anthropic talking about his percentage of doom and basically stating that the percentage is not zero. And as these models become increasingly more capable, they become harder to predict and harder to control. And later on after this statement, I'm going to show you a statement from someone at OpenAI's team talking about the future AI systems and what they think they're capable of.

Do you think about percentage chance, doom? I think I've often said that my chance that something goes really quite catastrophically wrong on the scale of human civilization, it might be somewhere between 10 and 25% when you put together the risk of something going wrong with the model itself, with something going wrong with human people or organizations or nation states, misusing the model or it inducing conflict among them or just some way in which society can't handle it. That said, what that means is that there's a 75 to 90% chance that this technology is developed and everything goes fine. In fact, I think if everything goes fine, it'll go not just fine, it'll go really, really great. Again, this stuff about curing cancer, I think if we can avoid the downsides, then this stuff about curing cancer, extending the human lifespan, solving problems like mental illness, this all sounds utopian, but I don't think it's outside the scope of what the technology can do. So, you know, I often try to focus on the 75 to 90% chance where things will go right. And I think one of the big motivators for reducing that 10 to 25% chance is, you know, how, how great it'll, you know, is trying to increase, is trying to increase the good part of the pie. And I think the only reason why I spend so much time thinking about the 10 that that 10 to 25% chance is, hey, it's not going to solve itself.

So this is important because if you don't know, Dario amodei is the CEO of Anthropic, and not only is the CEO of Anthropic, but he left OpenAI to focus on safety. So these are some really, really smart people. They've managed to do something great with Claude 3 and I think their companies, you know, their ethos, their values, their constitutional AI the way how it works. I think it's really, really important in terms of, you know, developing things in a different way because, you know, like he said, someone has to be focused on safety. The percentage isn't going to get sold by itself. And it's something that they do need to work on. And of course as well, OpenAI are also focusing on super alignment. They have a team which is focusing on this, led by Jan, like, so essentially there was a podcast in which Jan, like actually talks about his potential of doom, and he actually talks about GPT5, GPT6, what they're looking for for those systems and how they plan to solve the alignment problems in those systems.

Don't obsess about whether you can align GPT20. Let's work on aligning GPT5 and then in collaboration with GPT5, we'll figure out how to align GPT6 and then in collaboration with all of them, we'll work together to align GPT7. That's kind of the basic idea.

Yeah. And you want to do this empirically. Maybe you look at GPT5 and you're like, well, the system still isn't smart enough. Right. So we tried this a whole bunch with GPT4, like trying to get it, fine tune it on alignment data, try to get a help in our research. It just wasn't that useful. That could happen with GPT5 too. But then we'll be like, okay, let's focus on GPT6. But we want to be on the ball when this is happening and we want to be there, you know, when this becomes possible and then like really go for it. And so I think that's the much more important question to focus on. And then if you actually wanted to give a, like a probability of doom, I think the reason why it's so hard is like, because there's so many different scenarios of how the future could go. And like, if you want to have an accurate probability, you need to like integrate over this large space. And like, I don't think that's fundamentally helpful. I think what's important is like, how much can we make things better and what are the best paths to do this?

Yeah, I didn't spend a lot of time trying to precisely pin down my personal pdo because I suppose my guess is that it's more than 10%, less than 90%. So it's incredibly important that we work to lower that number. But it's not so high that we're completely screwed and there's no hope. And kind of within that range, it doesn't seem like it's going to affect my decisions on a day to day basis all that much, so I'm just kind of happy to leave it there.

Yeah, I think that's probably the range I would give to you.

So yeah, that's where they talk about P Doom on a podcast with Gen. Like it's actually a really, really insightful podcast. I'll leave a link to it in the description. It's around two hours, but it is something that is honestly a fascinating insight into what's going on at OpenAI in terms of aligning these superhuman systems. So what are your opinions on Elon Musk's full statement? Do you think that we're going to be getting AGI by 2025? Do you think this is just a bold claim? Do you also agree with the industry standards that we're going to be basically getting AGI by 2028? 2029? Do you also agree that COMPUTE is increasing at an unprecedented speed? And what is your percentage, Doom? How large do you think the percentage is that super intelligent AI is out of control and has some catastrophe level effect on humanity? So let me know what you think about that. If you did enjoy the video, definitely leave a comment down below and I'll see you guys in the next one.