Ex-Google CEO Says AI War Is COMING! (Superintelligence Strategy)

Ann Hendricks, the director of the center for AI Safety. Eric Schmidt, the former CEO and chairman of Google. Alexander Wang, the founder and CEO of Scale AI. These three came together and produced super intelligent strategy. And this is by far one of the most important documents because I believe it outlines the super intelligent strategy that, you know, nations are going to take in order to protect themselves from from the monumental amount of craziness that is about to come in the future due to the rapid advancements in AI. Now, this video might be a long one, but of course I will have timestamps. But it's important to know that there are so many future events that could possibly occur that aren't exactly good. And this superintelligence strategy document seeks to provide a guide to combat some of those things and, and of course, navigations around certain issues which may arise, such as unknowns and many other cases of really difficult scenarios that we will have to face sometime in the near future. So one of the things that they talk about here is the fact that AI is like electricity. They talk about how it is rapidly transforming multiple facets of society with advances arriving at a pace and scale that very few anticipated. Now they talk about how these developments compel policymakers to address the widening spectrum of issues, from economic shifts driven by automation to the concerns about global competition. And they basically talk about how, like unlike specialized technological tools, AI is pretty much like electricity because this spans virtually every sector, including finance, healthcare and defense. And they talk about the fact that this broad applicability, coupled with its rapid evolution, creates a risk landscape that is expansive and difficult to predict, and strategic actors must contend with potential misuse. They say that right here, AI has been compared to electricity for its general purpose nature, to traditional software for its economic importance, or to the printing press for its cultural impact. And of course, you can see right here, they say while these comparisons provide useful entry points, they fail to emphasize the grave national security implications of AI. A more productive analogy lies between AI and catastrophic dual use nuclear. And it talks about how a more productive analogy lies between AI and catastrophic dual use nuclear, chemical, biological technologies. And quite like them, AI will be integral to a nation's power while posing the potential for mass destruction. And you might be thinking that is an overstatement. Trust me, it is not. So one of the things that this document actually tries to get you to understand is the fact that things do, do change quickly. It talks about how in 1933, the leading scientist Ernest Rutherford dismissed the notion of harnessing atomic power as Moonshine basically said, you know what don't even try to harness atomic power. It's just a complete joke. And the very next day, Leo Slizzard read Rutherford's remarks and sketched the idea of a nuclear chain reaction that ultimately birthed the nuclear age. And eventually such figures as Oppenheimer recognized the dual nature of their work. And today, apparently, we are at a similar stage. Previously considered science fiction, but apparently AI has advanced to the point where machines can learn, adapt, and potentially exceed human intelligence in certain areas. And AI experts, including Geoffrey Hinton and Joshua Bengio, pioneers in deep learning, have expressed existential concerns about, about the technologies they helped create. Now, if you aren't familiar with the Manhattan Project, they talk about how there are Manhattan Projects aiming to eventually build superintelligence and that they're already underway, financed by many of the most powerful corporations in the world. And of course, governments and, you know, nation states are going to be willing to do this because it is a very, very decisive moment for some of these countries because this could be the make or break moment. And with several projects underway, these are basically secret projects where they're going to be funding them with millions and millions of dollars to ensure that they get to this first. Now, of course, they talk about this strategy, this entire superintelligence things, it actually requires thinking about the unthinkable. And in this paper, they say that we propose such a strategy to grapple with the fundamental questions along the way. What should be done about lethal autonomous weapons, catastrophic malicious use, powerful open weight AI and AI powered mass surveillance? How can society maintain a shared grasp of reality? What should be done about AI rights? How can humans maintain their status in a world of mass automation? So many different things and so little answers. Now, one of the things they talk about here is of course, competition. They talk about how AI may transform the foundations of economic and military power. Its ability to automate labor could become the source of economic competitiveness. And in the military sphere, it could be used to dominate rivals. And we begin looking at economic power and then turn to the greatest military implications. So you can see right here they actually start and talking about how AI and economic power and how there's actually going to become a shift in the terms of economic power, because AI chips are going to basically be the currency of that economic power. And as AI becomes more integrated into the economy, the possession of advanced AI chips may define a nation's power. So historically, the wealth and population size underpins a state's influence, but the automation of tasks through AI alters this dynamic. A collection of highly Capable AI agents operating tirelessly efficiently rivals a skilled workforce, effectively turning capital into labor. And in this new paradigm, the power will depend on both the capability of AI systems and, and the number of AI chips on which they could run. And nations with greater access to AI chips could outcompete others economically, basically stating that, look, if you have one nation that's dependent on just humans and another Asian, but another nation that has so many AI chips, it's able to completely automate parts of its economy, that economy is going to be moving 10 times faster. It's going to become a lot more economically valuable. And of course, since it's powered by AI chips, and that is going to become basically the currency of the future. And this is where they talk about the fact that states have long pursued weapons that could confer a decisive advantage over rivals. And the AI systems introduce new avenues for pursuit, raising questions about whether certain breakthroughs such as superintelligence could undermine deterrence and reorder global power structures. I think this is so true. The literal fact that, you know, like one company out of California probably will likely reach superintelligence before the government is going to certainly have some wide ranging effects and definitely, probably reorder global power structures. Or what happens if China manages to get to super intelligence first and they manage to, you know, essentially have military dominance? You have to understand that, like when you think about how the modern world is, it's all slowly and slightly having this slight undertone of violence at the end of this world order. I know it sounds pretty crazy, but this is somewhat how things are enforced. And the fact that that global stability is going to be changed because someone is going to yield such a decisive advantage, that's going to be pretty dangerous. Talks about how AI could enable military dominance. Advanced AI systems may drive technological breakthroughs that alter the strategic balance, similar to the introduction of nuclear weapons, and could generate strategic surprises that catches rivals off guard. So such a superweapon may grant two tiers of advantage. One might be called sub nuclear dominance, which would allow a state to project power widely and subdue adversaries without disrupting nuclear deterrence. The second possibility is a strategic monopoly on power. And that would upend the nuclear balance entirely and could establish one's state complete dominance and control, leaving the fate of rival subjects to its will. Either way, if you develop superintelligence first, you are going to be in a very, very good position as a company, country, or whoever you are. And I think this is clear why all of these companies, all of these Countries and all of these governments are pouring billions of dollars into this because it is, I don't want to say the final invention, but potentially the final invention. And they talk about how superweapons, so sub nuclear weapons, such as an AI enabled cyber weapon that can suddenly comprehensively destroy a state's critical infrastructure. Exotic EMP devices, next generation drones, could confer sweeping advantages without nullifying an adversary's nuclear deterrent. Some superweapons might erode mutual destruction outright. A transparent ocean would, you know, threaten submarine stealth. Revealing the location of Nuclear submarines and AIs might be hard to pinpoint. All AIs might be able to pinpoint all hardened mobile nuclear launchers, further undermining the nuclear triad. So this is just absolutely insane when we think about what a super intelligent AI is going to be able to do. And this is just going to be absolutely crazy if this stuff exists. Because we're going to have to think about the second order, the third order consequences of these changes. Along with the military. Now they talk about the implications of superweapons, the fact that superintelligence is not merely a new weapon, but a fast track to all future military innovation. And that is quite true. If you do have superintelligence, you do have a fast track to all future military innovation and pretty much all kinds of innovation, which is why people, companies and countries are really, really chasing this. And it talks about how a nation with sole possession of superintelligence might be as overwhelming as the conquistadors were to the Aztecs. And if a state achieves a strategic monopoly through AI, it could reshape the world affairs on its own terms, which is pretty crazy. And here is the bad thing is that an AI driven surveillance apparatus may enable an unshakable totalitarian regime, transforming governance at home and leverage abroad. So that's going to be pretty crazy, because when you think about it, it's like AI superintelligence. If in the hands of the wrong government, they could most certainly engage some kind of totalitarian regime, which is going to be something that you literally wouldn't be able to break free from. And you have to think about how previous military dictatorships were toppled, how those things fell in. It's simply because they simply didn't have the technology to take over the world. What happens if someone gets super intelligence and they want to take over the world? They're probably going to be able to do it. If they have that strategic military advance and they have all future military innovations, it's probably going to happen. Which is of course a risk. And they talk about the fact that data centers may even become military targets. They talk about the fact that the mere pursuit of this breakthrough, which of course many people are pursuing, it could tempt rivals to act before their window closes. That's of course leading people to basically of course have a lot more conflict. So it talks about how the fact that, you know, in the nuclear era, they, you know, proposed preventative nuclear strikes on the Soviet Union to thwart its rise while the United States was thinking about, you know, crippling the Chinese during the early 60s and they were basically faced with a hard decision. And you're thinking about this again, it's like, once again, do we have preventative action? Like rather than relying on the corporation or seeking to outpace other countries, certain countries may just think, you know what, let's actually sabotage or do data center attacks if the only other option is to potentially allow that country to move forward. And this is something that is a real, real risk. Because if certain countries realize that, look, we are never going to win the AI race, they may just seek to slow other countries down, whether it's going to be by espionage, where it's going to be by sabotage, they may just want to destroy those data centers. And this is where Yoshio Benjo actually talks about this. And it is, you know, he spoke about this months ago, but it's becoming clearer and clearer about the day and the impact superintelligence will have. Now of course they do talk about terrorism. And AI's dual use capabilities amplify terroristic attacks and technologies that can revolutionize healthcare or simplify software development also have the potential power to give people the ability to create bioweapons and conduct cyber attacks. And this amplification effect lowers the barriers to terrorists, enabling them to execute large scale attacks that were previously limited to nation states. Now here's where we talk about AI and the lower risk of bioterrorism. They actually talk about a previous story where there was a Japanese cult that orchestrated the 1995 subway attack and they actually operated with limited expertise. And these are people that they weren't that smart. And they managed to produce and deploy a chemical weapon in the heart of Tokyo's transit system, killing 13 people and injuring over 5,000. And that attack paralyzed the city, instilling widespread fear and, and is demonstrating the havoc that a determined non state actor can wreck. And they're talking about the fact that, you know, with AI, they probably would have been able to go much further and AI could provide step by step guidance on designing lethal pathogens, sourcing materials and optimizing methods of dispersal. And what once required specialized knowledge and resources could become accessible to individuals with malevolent intent, dramatically increasing the potential for catastrophic outcomes. Basically what they're saying here is that like we have a situation on our hands where the advancement of AI is great because it allows people to do great things, but that also allows people to do worse things. Essentially, AI is a tool that empowers agency, but for those who want to use their agency to commit crimes like terrorism, it's also unfortunately going to increase the levels of what they can do. Now if you've been paying attention to AI safety and AI companies, you'll know that they actually speak about something called AI safety level three, which is I think ASL level three. And they always say that they won't release these models if they do release that threshold, which leads me to believe, and this is something that I've said for quite some time now, is that future AI models, we either A won't get them released publicly or B, you're probably going to need a license to use certain AI models because you won't be able to constrain the models, but the information in it is going to be potentially so dangerous that anyone who uses the models, you'll have to have some kind of clearance. That way you're going to be able to interact with the model. And I know it does seem pretty crazy, but if you can't risk that model being used by the general public, then you're probably going to have to have it restricted to a certain level of user that actually has the kind of clearance to interact with that, for example. What I mean by that is that I can't just go ahead and get some uranium, I have to go and pass some clearance checks, for example, I just can't go ahead and get a gun, I have to go ahead and pass some tests. Also I can't just go ahead and drive a car, I have to pass a simple driving test. So the point I'm trying to make is that over time I do think there will be a lot more limits to AI to sort of counteract this effect because the future of open source and stuff like that. I do think that as these models get much smarter, they're definitely going to be a lot more chances for individuals to commit a lot more crimes, which is one of the dual use things, which is rather unfortunate. Now they talk about the fact that modern bioweapons enhanced by AI driven design could exploit vulnerabilities in human biology with unprecedented precision, creating contagions that evade detection and resist treatment. Now they're talking about myrrhobacteria, which is engineered with reversed molecular structures that could evade immune defenses that usually keep pathogens at bay. And if you think about it, of course, some of this stuff is very, very far out. But the risks are there. If someone's able to develop these pathogens or try and kill off a certain demographic of people, people of a certain race, people of a certain eye color, people of a certain group, I mean, they're probably going to be able to do it with a lot more considering the rate at which these tools are improving. Now they talk about the fact that there could be some cyber attacks on critical attacks on critical infrastructure, like cyber attacks. And the problem is that this is something that's already happening. I do remember that Amazon was saying that they are receiving so many hacking attacks every single day now, I could even go ahead and find the article. And it's all due to the fact that AI is enabling large scale sophisticated attacks. If you're able to run your own server, a lot of times these open source tools, they actually allow you to run things on a home network. You can run them on your own server and imagine you're able to house various different agents just doing your hacking work for you. Another thing, you know, even if it's not, you know, cyber attacks on critical infrastructure, I'm pretty sure that many of you guys are aware that there are more than ever now scams that are of the realistic nature. And as time gets on and on and on, I do think these scams are going to get more and more sophisticated and very harder to verify because you've got things like face swap, you've got things like AIs that sound super realistic. And of course you've got AI agents that are able to do a variety of different tasks. It's pretty, pretty crazy. And of course it's really, really concerning. Now when they talk about cyber attacks on critical infrastructure, the one that actually really concerns me is that many countries and many, you know, like really big countries like America, the uk, the eu, all these western countries, they actually do have a fragile system like the power grids and the water systems, they're more fragile than they do appear. And a hack targeting digital thermostats could force them to cycle on and off, creating damaging power surges that burn out the transformers. And these are critical components that can take years to replace. So we could be in a situation where, you know, certain, you Know, maybe states or countries, certain parts of them, you know, don't have water for years at a time due to, you know, these parts not being available. I mean, it's just a situation where we really do have to think about the potential for damage here and the wild scale usage that can happen. And you have to understand that this also is on the other side. You're also going to have to have the defense, okay, you are going to have to beef up your defenses so much if this is the case. So of course one of those career opportunities I do think is going to be continually expanding is of course cybersecurity and defense. Because the cyber attacks, they're only going to get worse as time goes on. And it talks about how exploiting vulnerabilities and supervisory control and data acquisition software, compelling sudden load shifts and driving transformers beyond safe limits. You know, talking about water treatment facilities, tampered sensor readings could fail to detect dangerous mixture. All of these crazy things. And the worst thing about this is that this article actually doesn't talk about this. But one of the things they don't talk about is the fact that even if you have super, super, super crazy AI that can defend from any attack, there is still the human element where humans are susceptible to messages and hacks. A lot of hacks that happen now just because of human error. Like humans see an email, they may not realize it, they talk to a woman online and the woman just scams them out of millions of dollars because they think they're talking to a beautiful woman or something because AI is now so emotionally intelligent. There is also that aspect as well that can definitely exploit people. I remember reading the recent GPT 4.5 paper where GPT 4.5 was able to successfully get a lot of money out of people by convincing them in a very specific method. And this is just going to show you how smart future systems are going to be. Now this is where they talk about, you know, dual use technology and the offense defense balance. So I probably should.