Ex OpenAI Employee Gives Warning About The Economy

So Miles Brundage is a prominent researcher and policy expert in the field of AI, and he's mainly known for his work at OpenAI. Now this guy joined OpenAI in 2018 as a research scientist and he later became the head of Policy research. Now, recently in October, Brundage actually announced his departure from OpenAI to focus on independent research in the nonprofit sector. And he cited many concerns about the industry's readiness to manage AGI safely and expressed a desire to have more freedom to publish his research without the corporate constraint. Now, he's not the only person that's left OpenAI and cited many concerns. We have Andrej Karpathy, who was one of the co founders of OpenAI. We also had Jan Leich, who left OpenAI due to safety concerns. We also had Ilya Satskva, who left during the drama and basically went off to start his own company, Safe Superintelligence, Inc. We also had Peter Deng, who recently left the company, who was one of the product leads. And we also had John Schulman leave, who was one of the initial creators of ChatGPT and not to mention most recently, Miramarati departing, which comes to a surprise to many of us as we wouldn't think that the CTO of a company about to achieve monumental success would leave so abruptly. Now, in this interview, he actually gives us five key things about the future of AI on his podcast, where he actually discusses with some members of the New York Times exactly why he left OpenAI and some of the things he's going on now. One of the things that he actually talks about is the fact that retirement.

Is going to be soon and so forth. It doesn't need a law degree or whatever. So I think it's, it's basically impossible to fully predict. But I do think people should save money and I don't think that like.

So you are, you are saving for retirement.

Personally, I think that retirement will come for most people sooner than they think in the sense that, you know, it'll.

I think, finally some good news on this podcast.

Yeah, assuming, you know, we're all here to, to be talking about retirement, you know, and when, you know, AGI is here. But yeah, I think that it'll be technologically possible if, you know, and politically possible if kind of policymakers do their job to have this huge economic bounty and for people to basically retire early and, you know, have a high standard of living. That being said, you know, you might have more kind of, you know, robot butlers if you, you know, have some savings from before than than if you did. And so I don't. And I think there will always be things that people want to buy. They're always, you know, you know, there'll be a demand for like, well, I want to have food served to me by a human and you know, not a robot or. And so I do think Kevin wants. Yeah, so I think money will still be a thing would be my guess.

So him stating that retirement is soon isn't something that is a surprise. One of the anthropic chief officers who actually made a statement on her blog post actually said something that I still think that most people are ignoring. And this was one of the things that the video actually did get a decent amount of popularity because I think people are starting to understand exactly how the future is going to be changing and just how rapid some of those changes might actually be. So I'm going to read this quickly for you guys. I'm not going to gloss over it for too long, but essentially the bit that I've highlighted here is the fact that she says, I stand at the edge of a technological development that seems likely, should it arrive, to end employment as. As I know it. Which is, you know, I, I guess you could say this is a pretty profound statement considering that she is at Anthropic. And of course at Anthropic, they are working on frontier models. They know exactly what's coming next. And it's quite likely that she has probably baked in her prediction for the future of employment. We all know that the future of employment is quite uncertain for many different industries. But when you have many people in these frontier labs clearly stating that, look, employment is going to swiftly change come the arrival of AGI, I think it's important to know that, yes, this is going to be something that is certainly going to happen. And another bit that I did actually highlight, and this is something that I posted on Twitter recently, was the fact that, I guess you could say that a lot of people are ignoring exactly what's going on, particularly because I think it's sometimes uncomfortable to confront the reality of the truth. And you can clearly see that in the statement where it says that the general reaction to language models among knowledge workers is one of denial. They grasp the ever diminishing number of places where models still struggle rather than noticing the ever growing range of tasks where they still have or past human level. So this is basically just saying that looks most people just simply ignore the fact that AI is consuming a lot of what we do in terms of available job roles, but people will always Argue against it by saying, look, it can't do this, it can't write award winning books, it can't invent this, it can't do that. But many of us also don't do those things. And when we look at what Miles Brundage has said here is that, look, retirement is probably going to come sooner than we think. If that happens, it means that the economy is also going to change. Now, he wasn't the only person that said this. A while back I made a video that was also Talking about how OpenAI aren't particularly being honest and how Eric Weinstein actually spoke about this in a short interview where he says that he doesn't even think that a lot of these companies that are currently now building AI systems, they can't be honest because of how the future is going to be. Just take a look at this because it's one of the most thought provoking things that I've heard because it basically says that, look, these companies are building systems that are so incredible in the future that if they are honest, people just won't even know what to think.

Sam, he's taken a lot of shit, very bad blood between him and he's like Edward Teller, he's struggling with the real thing. We demonized Edward Teller, we're going to demonize Sam Altman. But Sam is looking directly at this and we're not listening. Sam was talking about UBI years and years and years ago. Yeah, he's like, I have to do experiments because I have to take care of people because I know what's coming.

Right?

Does that guy get any credit for that?

I didn't even know that that was one of his things.

Holy cow. My wife's an economist. We were talking to Sam and Sam's just like, look, this is going to break capitalism. Yeah, he's right.

Summarize what Eric Weinstein said right there. He basically just said, just, look guys, it's pretty incredible when you think about the kinds of technology we're building. And Sam Altman is one of the people who, you know, knew about this for quite some time. He was talking about ubi, you know, such in a way that most people couldn't even fathom when he was, you know, beginning to talk about it. And you know, of course he's run recent experiments, looked at the results because this is of course a technology that is going to fundamentally change the way the economy works. This is of course something that I don't even think like most governments are even thinking about. And this is also what Miles Brundage says. He says that basically when you actually think about how the economy is going to change, we might have to understand that UBI and this kind of workplace where a lot of people are working, a lot of people are getting essentially, I guess you could call it income from the government. I'm not sure if you want to call it a freedom dividend, some kind of ubi, whatever term, you know, would like to, you know, place upon that kind of income that's going to be coming from potentially the automation of entire sectors and industries. This thing potentially is going to be absolutely inevitable as the economy wouldn't be able to function without.

Do you want to share your thoughts on how society would work in a world where AI can do everything of economic value, like how. How are people's needs taken care of, the government provides, or robots do everything for us?

I think what is probably going to happen, you know, assuming that we're all here and safe and healthy and so forth, is there will be a much larger economy that I will, you know, each year over the next few years, GDP growth will significantly increase. And, you know, if we do the right thing in terms of taxation and so forth, and, you know, having a robust safety net, whether that looks like, you know, you know, basic income or something else, that people will be able to share in that bounty and people will be able to choose to just kind of take that, you know, basic income or, you know, and, you know, live pretty comfortable lives, you know, the kinds of lives that a lot of people work very hard and, you know, work very long hours to live today. So I don't know how it'll play out, but I think that'll be technologically possible.

So, yeah, this is where you can see Miles Brundage basically talking about how, you know, he doesn't really know how this is going to play out. But of course, one of the scenarios is exactly how he says, you know, people are going to essentially have to get some kind of income from the government, because when you think about what AI is going to be able to do, what the kind of tasks it's going to be able to now do, and then of course, in the future, even, you know, like, how crazy the economy is going to get because AI is going to pretty much eat everything that you could do on a computer. There are complete industries that are going to be uprooted, and we're already, of course, seeing signs of that. And this is something that, like a lot of companies right now, and I really want to drive this point home to you guys, a lot of companies right now, they aren't focused on this because it's not their job to focus on how to take care of people when they get their job displaced. Their job is to just simply make the best products that you can have. And of course, doing so a byproduct of that is of course, the fact that a lot of the jobs that are currently existing on the market are just simply going to disappear or become increasingly difficult to get hired for, considering the fact that AI can do it faster, cheaper, and more reliably. Now, one of the things I actually talk about in this interview was something about AI safety. So I know most of you guys don't really have the idea or particularly the notion that AGI is going to go rogue. But for those of you who are more on the edge, for those of you who are, I guess you could say, you know, a little bit more of open to different scenarios where AI could have different abilities and, you know, potentially just go completely rogue. One of the things that they mentioned in this podcast, which is, you know, rather hilarious, is the fact that Sam Altman actually does have a doomsday bunker in which he's preparing for one of the scenarios where AGI might go rogue. I know it does sound completely insane, but Sam Altman does have some kind of structure in place so that if things do go rogue, he's at least protected. Now, for those of you who are thinking that this is some kind of rumor, it's actually quite true. Sam Altman has been pretty open about the fact that he prepares for, you know, nuclear style fallouts and of course, scenarios where AGI or ASI or AI just completely goes rogue and, you know, tries to kill everyone. Because I think Sam Altman, you know, has understood from quite a while ago that this is definitely a reality. You can see at this article he says that, you know, he's joked that bunkers won't really matter if there's an AI apocalypse. And this is basically an article Business Insider, where they actually talk about how the ultra rich are obsessed with their doomsday bunkers, but Sam Altman said it won't matter if there's an AI apocalypse. Now, basically this article just kind of states that, like, look, the ultra rich seem to be obsessed with their billionaire bunkers. But of course, Sam Altman says he has structures but not a bunker. And of course, none of this is going to help if AGI goes wrong. Now, of course, I understand what Sam Altman means. Like if AGI goes wrong, and you do have like, let's say some super intelligent asi, you know, being that is able to do things that we would consider magic. I mean, I don't think a bunker is going to keep you safe. When you think about the kinds of, you know, abilities that kind of system would have, it's probably going to be able to get you anyways. But of course, the funny thing is that Sam Altman is hedging his bets. You can see another from, you know, earlier years where you can actually look at how Sam Altman is stating that, you know, look, I really just want to be prepared. There was this article from 2023 where it says, inside OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, Fixation on death and the apocalypse. It says here that the known doomsday prepper was well prepared for disaster. Also in 2016, he told the New Yorker that he kept a stash of guns, gold, potassium iodide, antibiotics, batteries, water, gas masks from the Israeli Defense Force, and a big patch of land in Big Sur I can fly to in case of a lethal synthetic virus or nuclear war. And when the coronavirus pandemic hits. Altman said he spent the first few weeks of lockdown in a state of isolation and he holed up at home, cutting off any outside contact and even disinfecting his veg. And there is another article that basically states that this guy is really worried about, you know, future technologies. Of course you can say, well, the article says that, you know, Sam Altman basically said that. Look, I do worry, of course. I mean, I worry about it a lot. Of course, you can see this is basically talking about, you know, so many AI companies are now working on either the next industrial revolution or the apocalypse. So this is something we really have to face the reality of because we have to remember that it isn't just anthropic, it isn't just OpenAI. We are in a global marketplace, which means we also need to think about the other countries who are developing rapidly capable AI systems. You've got China, you've got Russia, you've got, you know, probably some companies in Europe. I mean, it looks pretty crazy with as to what the future does hold, but it is something that we do need to actually think about. Now, the thing is, remember how I just said that, like, it isn't just us that we have to, you know, think about. There's of course, other countries. One of the things that, you know, most people are focused on is of course, OpenAI. But Miles Brundage actually says that, you know, it's not even just opening Eye. When you actually look across the board at the companies that are AGI ready, none of them are ready for that kind of technology, even if it just manages to spawn in. And when I say spawn in, I mean they manage to discover some breakthrough and things get a little out of hand. None of them are ready for the kinds of technology that they are developing.

So, I mean, it wasn't so much about OpenAI specifically, although obviously, like, my perspective on what the gaps are in the industry are informed by makes it open eye. But I'm pretty confident that there's no other lab that is totally on top of things. And you know, if you read what, what people are saying, you know, they, they're not saying that they're on top of things. So that, that kind of crazy situation of like really fast progress, plus, you know, the people who know the most saying that we're not ready is kind of, kind of my fault.

Yeah, he's basically said here that, look, nobody else is ready, OpenAI aren't ready. So it's kind of something that we need to be a little bit more careful about because if we're not, we're going to end up in a really bad scenario. Now he also discusses the fact that like, of course, if, you know, AGI is coming and if you were working at one of these frontier labs, how would you change your personal life to accommodate the fact that there is alien intelligence possibly arriving within the next three to five years?

What does it mean to be ready for AGI and how has your answer to that question maybe changed over the past few years? If it has?

Yeah. So I think that over the next few years there will likely be, you know, AI systems that are built that, you know, whether you call it AGI or not, like the, the trend line is clearly towards systems that can basically do anything a person can do, you know, remotely on a computer, operate the mouse and keyboard. It can, you know, even, you know, even, you know, look like a human in a video chat and so forth. I think people should be thinking about what that means. Governments should be thinking about what that means in terms of, you know, sectors to tax and education to invest in. And, you know, what is even the point of education in a world in which, you know, some of the jobs that are kind of remaining and, you know, there are going to be new ones. To be clear, I'm not saying, you know, all jobs are going to disappear, but it'll be disruptive and people need to think ahead about what does this mean in terms of, you know, the purpose of education is it to kind.

Of and in that last statement, it's pretty clear that, like, look, of course you definitely need to make sure that, you know, the entire society is ready for AGI. You've got to think about policy, you've got to think about education. There are so many different factors because AI is going to infiltrate so many different industries. And when you think about AGI, once get here, we have to ensure that we are ready for this. So it's going to be super interesting to see exactly what the future is like. It's always fascinating to look at how certain individuals who used to work at OpenAI, the kinds of things they are saying once they are now no longer at these companies because of course they can now, of course, speak a little bit more freely and a little bit more openly about what they truly believe the future of AI and the economy is going to look like.