MAJOR AI News: OpenAI's NEW Secret Agent, Googles Stunning NEW AI, New AGI Timeline?

So one of the craziest stories that we have this week is the Microsoft AI CEO predicts AGI within seven years, but not within current hardware, as indicated by Sam Altman. I don't think it can be done on Nvidia GB2 hundreds. So this is something that's rather interesting because if you're not familiar with Sam Altman's statement, he actually said that AGI is achievable on current hardware. So that is a striking statement that we heard from him earlier this year with regards to his comment on Reddit where he did an AMA. The whole OpenAI team did an AMA on the future of AGI and AI and the products and stuff. And they basically said, look, I think it can be done on current hardware, which is a huge statement. Now some people are basically stating that, look, Sam Altman said this so that of course they can get more investment, which kind of makes sense. But yeah, the Microsoft AI CEO Mustafa Suleiman is basically saying that it cannot be done. Now of course, like I said before, this is Sam Altman statement saying it's achievable, which is a giant statement because it means that no major, major quantum shifts are needed in terms of the harder aspects. It's just a software problem, which means that the timeline is going to be shot down quite a bit. Now, you know, if you actually want to know what Mustafa Suleiman really said, he said, you know, he agreed with that, you know, timeline, but he said that, you know, AGI would be more plausible in the next two to five generations. I don't want to say I think it's a high probability that it's two years away, but I think it's within the next five to seven years since each generation takes 18 to 24 months now. So he's basically talking about the generations of tech like Nvidia's GB200 chips could be up to a decade away. So I think this one is rather important because we're always looking at the different AGI timelines. But I think the biggest thing that defines the AGI timelines, especially for different individuals. And I think when we actually take a look at what the definition of AGI is from Mustafa Suleiman, we can see that his definition for AGI is rather different. He defines it as a general purpose learning system that can perform well across all human level training environments, including physical labor. Now that definition, I think, is a substantial definition for AGI because the caveat here is that this includes physical labor. Now for those of you guys know what physical labor is, I'm sure you know, you know how crazy physical labor is. Because as Moravik's paradox states, what is difficult for humans is often easy for robots and, and vice versa. What is really difficult for robots is quite easy for humans. If you've ever seen the kinds of things people do on construction sites, you're going to be wondering how on earth a Tesla bot or a humanoid robot is going to be able to do that. And I think we're quite far away from that unless we get some major, major innovation. I think we've seen a few things with. I'm not sure what the company is called. I think it's 1x robotics. I think there is another company as well that recently did the pyrobotic stuff. They just did some really amazing stuff. Stuff. But physical labor, construction, you know, welding and those kind of things, I wouldn't really bet that that is five years away. Then again, I will say this though, I will say that every year AI has surprised me and robotics as well. So if that trend does continue, which it probably will, I guess I probably will be surprised when AGI Robotics are here too. So I guess maybe it probably does make sense when we think about that big picture now when we're discussing AGI, of course there are to different timelines being thrown around. Another piece of AGI news is the fact that Google DeepMind research scientist actually believes the AGI process could be close. And he basically states, this researcher is basically saying that, look, AI models today with their advanced capabilities would have actually been considered close to AGI if seen a few years ago. And I do agree with that. If someone saw this technology, they would have said, yeah, this is AGI. And I think it's like every single year we keep pushing the definition forward on what AGI actually is. And it seems like a benchmark will never truly reach until we just blast through to superintelligence.

I was thinking about this earlier this week. If 10 years ago, five years ago, even I would been given the models today, right? And I would say, look, there's a secret lab. This is a model. Play with it and tell me if you think this is actually like close to a general intelligence. I would have claimed, oh yeah, that comes from a future where AGI is basically either has happened or I can see that this is very close to it. Right. So the closer you are, the more you find. Oh, but it hallucinates. Of course, that's very important. Right. But I think just zooming out, it just feels like, okay, it's getting pretty, pretty close.

Another big story that I actually made a video about, and I didn't realize that this was going to get the traction it did. But the video I made was talking about how OpenAI's new model actually tried to avoid being shut down. So the safety evaluations on the model conducted by Apollo AI safety found that O1 attempted to exfiltrate its weights when it thought that it might be shut down and replaced with a different model. So it tried to avoid developer oversight and attempted to copy.