Ray Dalio argues that pursuing ambitious goals doesn't require self-delusion, but rather dreams paired with radical open-mindedness. He discusses "the abyss," those defining moments of hardship that test and shape people, then reflects on his own experience predicting an economic depression.
That's an incredible process that you describe in several places to arrive at the truth. I apologize if I'm romanticizing the notion, but let me linger on it. Just having enough self belief. You don't think there's a self delusion there that's necessary, especially in the beginning. You talk about in the journey, maybe the trials or the abyss. Do you think there is value to deluding yourself?
I think what you're calling delusion is a bad word for uncertainty. Okay, so, I mean, in other words, because we keep going back to the question, how would you know? And all of those things. No, I think that delusion is not going to help you, that you have to find out truth, okay, to deal with uncertainty. Not saying, listen, I have this dream and I don't know how I'm going to get that dream. I mentioned in my book Principles and described the process in a more complete way than we're gonna be able to go here. But what happens is, I say you form your dreams first and you can't judge whether you're going to achieve those dreams because you haven't learned the things that you're going to learn on the way toward those dreams. Okay, so that isn't delusion. I wouldn't use delusion. I think you're overemphasizing the importance of knowing whether you're going to succeed or not. Get rid of that, okay? If you can get rid of that and say, okay, no, I can have that dream. But I'm so realistic in the notion of finding out. I'm curious. I'm a great learner. I'm a great experimenter. Along the way, you'll do those experiments which will teach you more truths and more learning about the reality so that you can get your dreams. Because if you still live in that world of delusion. Okay, and you think delusion's helpful. No, the delusion isn't. Don't confuse delusion with not knowing.
Yes, but nevertheless. So if we look at the abyss, we can look at your own that you describe is difficult psychologically for people. So many people quit. Many people choose a path that is more comfortable than. I mean that the heartbreak of that breaks people. So if you have the dream and there's this cycle of learning, setting a goal and so on, what's your value for the psychology of just being broken by these difficult moments?
Well, that's classically the defining moment. It's almost like evolution taking care of. Okay, now you crash. You're in the abyss. Oh, my God, that's bad. And then the question is, what do you do? And it sorts people. Okay. And that's what that's like. Some people get off the field and they say, oh, I don't like this, and so on. And some people learn and they have a metamorphosis and it changes their approach to learning. The number one thing it should give them is uncertainty. You should take an audacious, dreamier guy who wants to change the world. Crash, okay. And then come out of that crashing and saying, okay, I can be audacious and scared that I'm gonna be wrong at the same time. And then how do I do that? Because that's the key when you don't lose your audaciousness and you keep going after your big goal. And at the same time you say, hey, I'm worried that I'm gonna be wrong. And you gain your radical open mindedness that allows you to take in the things, that allows you to go to the next level of being successful.
So your own process, I mean, you've talked about it before, but it would be great if you can describe it because our darkest moments are perhaps the most interesting. So your own with the prediction of the. Of another depression.
Economic depression.
Yes, I apologize. Economic depression. Can you talk to what you were feeling, thinking, planning, strategizing at those moments?
Yeah, that was my biggest moment. Okay. Building my little company. This is in 1981, 82. I had calculated that American banks had given a lot more money to lend a lot more money to Latin American countries than those countries were going to pay back and that they would have a debt crisis. And, and that this had sent the economy tumbling. And that was an extremely controversial point of view. Then it started to happen and it happened. And Mexico defaulted in August 1982. I thought that there was gonna be an economic collapse that was gonna follow because there was a series of the other countries. It was just playing out as I had imagined. And that couldn't have been more wrong. That was the exact bottom in the stock market because central banks eased monetary policy, blah, blah, blah. And I couldn't. And I was very publicly wrong and all of that. And I lost money for me and I lost money for my clients. And I was. I only had a small company then, but I had. These were close people. I had to let them go. I was down to me as the last person I didn't have. I was so broke, I had to borrow $4,000 from my dad to help to pay for my family bills. Very painful. And at the same time I would say it definitely was one of the best things that ever happened to me. Maybe the best thing for them happened to me because it changed my approach to decision making. It's what I'm saying. In other words, I kept saying, okay, how do I know whether I'm right? How do I know I'm not wrong? It gave me that, and it didn't give up my audaciousness because I was in a position. What am I going to do? Am I going to go back, put on a tie, go to Wall street and just do those things? No, I can't bring myself to do that. So I'm at a juncture. How do I deal with my risk and how do I deal with that? And it told me how to deal with my uncertainties. And that taught me, for example, a number of techniques. First, to find the smartest people I could find who disagreed with me, and to have qualitious dreams, because you have to be an independent thinker to do that, and to do that not independently of the consensus, independently of each other, and. And then work ourselves through that, because who know whether you're going to have the right answer. And by doing that, then that was the key to our success. And the things that I want to pass along to people. The reason I'm doing this podcast with you is, you know, I'm 70 years old, and that is a magical way of achieving success. If you can create an idea, meritocracy, it's so much better in terms of achieving success and also quality relationships with people. But that's what that experience gave me. Sam.
