Sam Altman REVEALS AGI DATE In NEW PREDICTION (AGI DATE!)

So there was a recent statement by Sam Altman that actually revealed his prediction for an AGI deadline date, arrival, or whatever you want to call it. And I think this video is rather important because the timelines in which AGI is going to arrive is one of the most hotly predicted things that has been predicted in the realm of AI. So let's dive into his statement, what it means for us and how we can kind of gauge where AGI is going to be in the next couple of years in his prediction. So essentially, I'm not going to waste any time. There was an article in which someone did an interview with Sam Altman for a book, and in that article they talk about Sam Altman's prediction. Now, what's also good is that in that article there were actually a giant number of quotes that Sam Altman has actually said that we will be diving into in more detail. Now, you can see here that Sam Altman has stated, okay, that AGI will arrive in five years, give or take, maybe slightly longer, but no one knows exactly when or what it will mean for society. So you can see that someone was asking him when it will be a reality. And I think this is rather impressive because the prediction from someone like Sam Altman, I think it's one of the most important ones because he is at the frontier of AI development. And his company, OpenAI, you know, the company OpenAI, which Sam Altman is the CEO of, means that he, of course, I would argue, knows the most about AGI technology in terms of where we are in terms of development, because he is, of course, at the forefront of that. So his prediction stating 5 years, give or take, maybe slightly longer, but nobody knows exactly when or what it will mean for society, is a very important quote to break down because it means that potentially we do have a date which can kind of give us some kind of sense when this AGI technology is going to be there. Now, this is of course just his statement. Things are exponentially increasing. And of course, we do know that with AI development and with technology, there are certain breakthroughs which can allow for companies to move faster than before. For example, with the Sora video paper, I'm pretty sure it was some breakthroughs at Google that actually led OpenAI to developing that even faster, because Ugle was actually quoted quite a lot in the Sora paper. So the point is, is that of course, you know, whilst his prediction might just be based on OpenAI's knowledge, and of course he's going to have, you know, pretty much every single piece of industry insight that there is. The point is that some breakthroughs can come from other AI competing labs that are going to be working on this technology also. So this five years prediction, it could actually get shortened if there are some breakthroughs. Because Even with Gemini's 1.5 Pro, I think there were some breakthroughs that Demis Hassabas talked about that essentially said that, look, we've developed this technology and a lot of people think that we just scaled this up. No, we' actually made some new innovations which we haven't talked about. So there are some key innovations which could be, you know, had in other labs which could definitely lead some other breakthroughs as well. And I think five years is a really good date. And later on in the video I'm going to get to why I do believe that five years is a pretty important date based on some of the previous videos that you may have seen. Now essentially, what's also cool as well is that this entire article actually does have a decent bit of information and I think it's something that we should take a look at. So one of the things he says was you can see that it says this is a lot to process, to say the least. It's a hard to wrap our minds around, says Roeta. But it's not as far fetched as it might seem. We don't need AGI to see massive disruption and transformation in the economy, workforce, education and society. And I think that is rather true. And in this article, the person who interviewed Sam Altman actually does quote, you know, Kolana, because Kolana did recently hired an AI assistant that does the job of 700 employees. And I don't know if they got rid of 700 employees. They just said their new chatbot does the work of 700 employees. So I'm guessing that it is going to make a lot of companies a lot more effective. And of course we need to see massive disruption with only AGI's release. We could of course just have it with advanced AIs that aren't actually AGI, but of course just narrow AI that's really good. Like for example, large language models are really good at text, really good at creative writing, and those will impact certain areas of the economy that really, really will disrupt it. So of course it's something that we're already seeing. And what also this should keep in mind is that you know how Sam Altman has said that, look, this is five years, give or take. I think an important thing to predict is that even if AGI is that of course crazy system that can pretty much do anything a human can do. It's important to know that one AGI isn't be all, end all. It's like there's spectrums of AGI, there's AGI that's half AGI. I think some people would argue that GPT4 or Claude's recent model is AGI, but the point is that timeline is going to be accelerating so much up until that point. So when AGI arrives, I'm pretty sure that we're likely to know beforehand. Not in the sense that we're going to know the reveal date, but the point that the kind of AI systems that we will have around will know that AGI is likely to be just around the corner because there likely won't be many breakthroughs left. Or maybe that will just be completely wrong. But I think that AGI won't just catch us completely by surprise. Because of course, as you already know, we're already looking at things in their current state and we can see that things are moving pretty quickly. Now you might be thinking, what is AGI going to be able to do? And in this article they actually did talk about what it's going to be able to do. And essentially you can see here that it says AI will handle 95% of what we agencies and creative use for today. So it says Altman and OpenAI have stated many times that their mission is the development of AGI or artificial general intelligence. Typically we view AGI that is broadly more capable than humans at a range of different tasks. And in this book Altman takes it further, describing AGI as when AI will be able to achieve novel scientific breakthroughs on its own. And essentially it was just something where these people, they are like marketers. So they were asking how will AGI impact their marketing firm? But before we get into that stuff, I really want to talk about this because essentially AGI being able to achieve novel scientific breakthroughs on its own is going to really, really accelerate the amount of research and development that we're going to be getting across many different industries. Because if we can, let's say we can just. I don't know how many times you can clone GPT4, but let's say clone it infinitely. The only bottleneck is your compute. Essentially, if we do have an AGI system that isn't that compute intensive, we could basically have unlimited researchers. We could scale up our researchers by a thousand x in any industry. And then of course we could have them running 24, seven publishing research papers literally every single day, every single Minute and the kinds of, you know, technological developments that we could have. I mean, it's kind of hard to predict what society will look like if that breakthrough is achieved to where we get a system that can actually do that with things that do work effectively. Now, there's going to be a lot of things that need to be done before that, but that's what Altman describes it as. And I think the way how they are building AGI, I think that is going to be something that will be a key milestone for them, you know, for OpenAI for them to do, because I think they understand how crazy that will be. And I do wonder if they're going to develop like an AlphaGo type system, which is just really, really, you know, focused on that kind of thing, or it's just going to be a plain AGI system that can be used across everything and then just do scientific breakthroughs. So it will be interesting to see how that does work. And then of course, this is where they talk about how, you know, this AI system could be used for marketers. So he says, you know, how will it impact their world of marketing? And it says, you know, what do you think AGI will mean for us and for consumer brand marketers trying to create ad campaigns, like to build their companies? And this is where he drops his first knowledge bomb. Oh, for that, it will mean that 95% of what marketers use, agencies, strategists, creative professionals for today, will easily, nearly instantly and at almost no cost be handled by the AI. And the AI will likely be able to test the creative against real or synthetic customer focus groups for predicting results and optimizing again, all three instant and nearly perfect images, video campaign ideas, no problem. I think what we are seeing here is something that, you know, it's important because it shows us that we, when the technology is evolving, it's going to be changing things in ways that we didn't think. Like, even as someone that knows a decent amount of marketing and creative agencies and stuff like that, I wouldn't have even predicted that, you know, and of course you can make these predictions yourself right now. But I wasn't even thinking that, you know, you could have synthetic customer focus groups and you could have, you know, systems and, you know, just rapidly testing and optimizing, you know, groups against ad campaigns. So if you don't know what that means. So let's say, for example, you have advertisements on YouTube, you might see one in this video, but if you see one that is, for example, just an image, likely what will happen is different people will see different images because they want to test the adverts and see how well they perform. So they might upload four adverts and instead of just putting one advert for £100, they'll put four adverts and put £25 each on them or $25. And essentially what you could do instead of that, instead of wasting your money, you could just have a synthetic group test against an AI group and see which of the ad creative, which image, which advert, which video, you know, the AI likes the most. And then once you see which advert performs really well with the synthetic group, you could then produce that on YouTube and then it's put to humans. And I think that would be pretty crazy. So, I mean, like I said, AI is really going to impact things that I really didn't think about. And I think that is a really, really cool thing. And I mean, I wouldn't be surprised if someone actually does make a company like that in the future and if it's really effective. So as well, what we need to look at as well, because there are a lot of industry predictions that were really, really fascinating. Because in this video what I wanted to do is I wanted to a really good picture on where everyone stands and then kind of, you know, look at where the median prediction is, where the most common prediction is as well. Because I want to see where is a crazy HR prediction and what's too optimistic and what's too pessimistic and then we can look at what actually is realistic. So I wouldn't say you can plan your life around it, because I think it's going to take us by surprise, but so you can actually gauge where things are moving. So you can see. So Sam Altman tweeted in 2022, the future can be so good that it's hard for any of us to imagine. My basic take on this is that we will have unlimited intelligence and energy and all that it will unlock. So the risks also do grow to the upside. And he additionally added to this, by the way, I think we will have these before the decade is out, not deployed at scale, but it's clear that these are both going to happen. So I do think what he's stating here is that before 2030 and in order for that timeline, of course that is just, I guess you could say six years away or just within five years around that time. So that would be around 2030, which is not too far away. I mean, five years, years seems like a long time, but it will fly by, especially if we're seeing a ramp up in different AI systems. GPT5, GPT6, Claude4, Claude5. If we're saying Google, Gemini2, Gemini3, Gemini4, multimodal robots, all of those kind of things happening before we do get AGI, I think those things are going to be really, really crazy, like unlimited intelligence and energy. I think those two things there are really, really insane. So, I mean, the reason I've showed you guys this tweet is because this tweet from 2022, I saw this from a comment on Reddit that actually shows that it's same time frame as this recent statement where he's like, you know, five years, give or take, maybe slightly longer, but nobody knows. And I think what's also important that says nobody knows exactly when or what it will mean for society. And that's a really important thing because as some people would put it, it is called the singularity because nobody knows what's coming after. And that's of course, you know, a reference to the black hole thing where like, you know, if you go in a black hole, nobody knows what's in there. So, yeah, I guess you could say that. You know, Sam Altman's prediction for AGI is around 2030 ish, I guess. And I'm going to show you guys some, and I'm going to show you guys some other predictions by other AI figures that kind of gauge where the market thinks AGI is going to be. Now, of course I will talk about the elephant in the room of AGI being achieved internally, but I will discuss that later, so bear with me for that moment. So one person that actually did predict AGI in two years is Dario Amodei. So this is the CEO of Anthropic, if you don't know, this is the CEO of Claude 3. So if you know Claude 3 Claude 3 opus that you've been using, if you've been enjoying it, this Guy is the CEO and recently on a podcast seven months ago, he said that AGI could be here within two years. He basically said that 2024 was going to be a pretty stale year. Not stale, but like pretty basic year. But then 2025 is when things are going to ramp up in terms of deployment and in terms of rapid innovation. And I wanted to include that here because this is the CEO of a major AI lab that's finally starting to gain some widespread user adoption. And I think his prediction is rather important on the market because if he says the AGI is possible within two years, which is you know, I put the date up here, which is the 8th of August 2025. I think that that is going to be rather fascinating if it does happen because that would be a stark contrast to Sam Altman's prediction of 2030. So, you know, that's a five year difference, give or take. And I'm guessing, you know, I don't know the entire clip. I was really trying to make this video as quickly as possible. I might have added the clip in. But I do think, like I said before, even if AGI is achieved, I'm not sure if be deployed at that date. So in two years, that is definitely a really, really fast date. I mean, is it going to happen? I have no idea. But then again, we don't know what his company has in store for us because of course they're a private AI company. They're going to work on models, they're going to, you know, mainly focus on safety. That what, that's what his company does focus on. Anthropic is a really, really safe company. Like their models didn't even really answer anything until the recent update. And they're doing so because they realize the inherent risk. So I'm guessing that, you know, within two years, is it possible? Yes, it's possible. But it will be interesting to see if this prediction does hold up before we do get into some of the other predictions. I think what is also interesting as well is that Sam Altman's timeline has actually not changed. And I think this is really important because when I show you these people's predictions and how they've changed over time, I think it goes to show what does Sam Altman know that we don't? Because he said in 2021, in 10 years, I think we'll have chatbots that work for an expert in any domain that you'd like. So you'll be able to ask an expert doctor, an expert teacher, an expert lawyer, whatever you need to have those systems and go accomplish things for you. So I need a contract that says this. I need a diagnosis for this problem. I need you to book me this flight. I want a movie created. I want you to make me an animated short, a photorealistic short that looks like this. Help me write this computer program. So let's say the most repetitive human work and some creative human work you'll be able to ask an AI to do for you. That's a massively transformative thing. And I think the fact that he said in 10 years, in 2021, and that's still at 2030, and now his timeline's only gone down by one. I mean, he's got a very, very good gauge on where things are headed. And like I said, his prediction important. So I think 2030 is going to be an important year. Now, some other people in the community have said within seven months, which would put it at September 2024, which is this year, which means that we only have around six months left to go. I kind of disagree with this just because I think, you know, AGI, even if they have it, I don't think they deploy it rapidly because I think it's going to take a lot of compute with the whole 7 trillion thing. And I do think that, you know, the only companies that could possibly do it are OpenAI, Google and anthropic. So, you know, knowing that, you know what OpenAI's timeline is with the future model releases, I think AGI in 7 months is just a little bit unrealistic. Although AI is absolutely insane and we've seen that technology can rapidly improve and evolve without any kind of prediction being solid. It can just be simply shattered by a tweet from OpenAI. So we honestly have no idea. But again, the problem is, the problem with all of these predictions is they don't always define exactly what AGI is. And I think that is the giant problem with this kind of prediction date is that AGI isn't exactly defined. But with Sam Altman's definition of an AGI system that can go ahead and achieve no breakthroughs on its own, I would agree that 2030 actually genuinely makes sense. And I'll get into why exactly that does make sense. Now, someone else who did also AGI timeline, someone that you're going to want to know is of course, Elon Musk. Now, like I said, I wasn't able to find this exact sentence. I was actually scrolling through this video a lot, and essentially in this video he said five or six years, and I think that was in 2023. So that pulls us to about 2027, 2028. That's when Elon Musk thinks will achieve AGI, artificial general intelligence. You can watch that video. I'll leave a link to that. But it's a pretty solid prediction. Elon Musk has a very good track record of, you know, and he, you know, the thing is, Elon Musk has been, you know, stating all of this stuff ages ago when there wasn't much AI hype. He's been talking about the risks of intelligence for quite some time. So it's important to Note his prediction as well. In addition to Elon Musk, we also have a Ray Kurzweil who said that AGI is going to be there by 2029, which is a very interesting date because, you know, apparently, according to several sources, 86 of Ray Kozel's predictions have come true. So 2029 being the year that also is quite similar to Sam Altman's. As you can see, that's 2030. His is 2029. And I wouldn't be surprised if 2029, it does happen. Now, I'm going to show you guys some other things as well. In addition, I'm going to talk about what I think makes sense now in this tweet. I posted this on Twitter a couple of days ago, and the reason I did tweet this is because this combined with the trademarks I saw, combined with Sam Altman and Greg Brockman stating that we're going to release these AI systems very slowly and combined with the document that, you know, looks at a whole bunch of different facts, I think this timeline does make sense completely. Although I would say that maybe, you know, you could say 2028 for AGI. You can see 2023, GPT4, 2024, GPT5, which is this year. Next year, GPT6, which is going to be AI agents, music and video with Sora. Then of course, 2026, which is GPT7, AI agents, music, video and embodied AI, which is, you know, the robots and stuff. And then 2027, we get AGI, which is an artificial general intelligence system. And I think it will, and I think it's likely to be an embodied AI system as well. But I do think we get embodied AI before that. But I do think that this is going to be the year where things really do take off. So that is kind of my prediction, and I think it's a rather quick prediction in terms of, you know, where we're going to be. Me. But I think this one does make sense, considering the fact that OpenAI said that they want to solve super alignment within four years. So that's why I said that this date actually does make sense, because they did this in, I think it was 2023. And if you add four years, 2023, you get 2027. And we know that the date that they solve Super Alignment isn't going to be the date that they just go ahead and release AGI. Of course, there's many different things that could delay, and I will talk about those. But the point is, is that I think if they're trying to solve it within four years, then I guess that they have a date in mind and they're trying to think about how they could solve this problem before they realize that those systems are going to be built. Now, in addition, I do want to say to the elephant in the room that of course, while Sam Altman has said five years, give or take, there has been a lot of information to suggest that AGI has been achieved internally, as with Sam Altman stating that himself and then just backtracking and saying I was only joking. Now, I do think that they do have the path to AGI, as in they know how to get there, but they don't actually have the system itself. But they do know with the right compute, with the right certain scaling laws, I think they do know how to get there, possibly. And I think there's a strong possibility on that. Will they actually release AGI, you know, as early as now? I don't think AGI is going to come anytime soon because I think they realize how crazy it will be to the public releasing that kind of system. So I think even if they do have AGI by the date that are predicted, combined with the document which I covered in a 40 minute video, I think that they will try and release it as slowly as possible just because of the ramifications that it will have on society. And that's not just something that I'm predicting, that's something that Sam Altman and Greg Brockman have said themselves. Now, in terms of other people predicting AGI, Jensen Huang, the CEO of Nvidia, has said that his timeline is five years, give or take. Which once again brings US to the 2029-2030 timeline of AGI being here.

Now, AGI, the question on AGI is what's the definition? Yeah, in fact, that's kind of the supreme question. Now if you ask me, if you say Jensen, AGI is a list of, list of tests. You need to have a specification and you need to know what the definition of success is. You need to have a test. Now if I, if I gave an AI a lot of math tests and reasoning tests and a history test and biology tests and medical exams and bar exams and you name it, Sats and MCats and every single test that you can possibly imagine. You make that list of tests and you put it in front of, put it in front of the computer science industry, I'm guessing in five years time we'll do well on every single one of them. And so if your definition of AGI is that it passes human tests, then I will tell you five years.

So, like I said, everyone has a different definition of AGI. Sam Altman's one is one that controls achieve novel scientific breakthroughs. And I think what the important thing as well is when I look at these kinds of different predictions in AGI, I think Sam Altman stating that we can achieve novel scientific breakthroughs means that his kind of AGI, he's thinking of one that is probably virtuoso AGI. So if you looked at the Google DeepMind's levels of AGI paper, they talk about three different kinds of AGI. Early AGI, which is what we have now with GPT4 medium AGI, which can complete 50% of the tasks as good as a human. We haven't got that yet. And then virtuoso AGI, which is 1999% of all humans, and then 100% AGI, which would be superhuman AI and just completely dominate humans in every field and excels it in every single realm. So I think Sam Altman here is stating that in terms of the level of AGI that we'll have by five years, I think we could have an AGI that achieves scientific breakthroughs by 2030. That would mean that potentially we could get a lighter AGI system even before then with GPT 7 and GPT 6, perhaps. So I think that is an important caveat to add because the definitions here are very, very important. Because whilst age guy is a very, very hotly dated topic, I think it's important to try and define that. Now, one thing that I did actually find rather fascinating was I was actually looking at metaculus predictions, and I'm going to switch tabs in a moment, but you can see here that the community prediction is around 2031. Now, I'm going to switch tabs because I really want to show you guys something. I think one of the craziest things about this is you can see that the predictions are pretty crazy. Okay. Because if we take a look at the prediction, you can see that in 2020, I'm actually going to zoom in. It's quite hard to see, but you can see at 2020, the community prediction was, I think it was, you can see right here, 24 7. So just look here, look right here. As I, as I scroll right here, it's 2020 and then 2047. So people are saying that 2047, then as you go, as you go, as you go, the predictions kind of even get up. Like we went from 2047 to 2020, 57. So people added 10 years to the AGI deadline. And then you can see as soon as ChatGPT was released, boom, we went down to 2035, which is pretty crazy. And then you can see as we continue, as we continue, then GPT4 gets released and then the date comes down again to 2031, 2032. So the community prediction on metaculus is around 2031, 2032. And you can see the kind of of forecasts that we're getting. And every time, like I said, every time there's a new AI system released, of course those predictions are now of course these predictions can change as they do. But another prediction as well that you're going to want to see is of course this one right here. So these guys use some economic modeling techniques to predict the expected arrival date of AGI. And they said that the average predicted date from this analysis is 2041, with a likely range of 2032 to 2048 and an estimated earliest possible arrival date of 20, which is just five years away. So five years away seems to be the key zone, like from 2028 to around 2030. That time zone seems to be the time where we're going to get virtuoso AGI. And then of course you can see here one thing that they actually do talk about, which is rather interesting. They talk about significant global scale conflict in the interim. So one thing that they actually do talk about, and I think this is rather important to talk about because I think around is it every 10 or 20 years we do get a Black Swan event. And that Black Swan event, it does take the entire world by storm. The Black Swan event that we did have was Covid, and of course one before that was the financial crash in 2008. So these kind of things can slow down the economy, can bring the economy to a halt, and can add a couple of years to the prediction. As things do increase and as things do get better, we do know that certain predictions do increase on the timeline with certain breakthroughs, but certain things also do delay them. Now they're stating that this wouldn't add more than 10 years. But I think one thing that people haven't talked about is will policy, Will policy slow it down? So recently, literally just today, as I was reading this, I came across an article that said, exclusive, the United States must move decisively to avert extinction level threat from AI government commissioned report says. So I'm wondering, I am wondering, okay, is this, and I'm going to go on this article in a moment, is this going to be something that happens to OpenAI. I think because OpenAI has such a prominent role in AI development. I'm wondering, I keep wondering, are they going to change and just like, is the government going to, I wouldn't say infiltrate OpenAI, but are they going to somehow take control? Because like I said, if they are developing what is known to be as the most powerful, most, you know, advanced technology, you know, that's stronger than nukes and you can see right here they've got the nuke images. If they've got something that's, you know, arguably bigger than nukes, how is the government not going to intervene and say, look, we need to know what you're doing, we need to make sure you're deploying this correctly. I think at some point, at some timeline, somewhere down the line, the government slows things down because I just think, you know, it doesn't really make sense that, you know, a company is going to have something more powerful than nukes and they don't get involved somehow. So that would also be my prediction on something that could potentially slow something down. You can see the article says, you know, the US government must move quickly and decisively to avert substantial national security risks stemming from AI, which could in worst case cause an extinction level threat to the human species. And it says current frontier AI development poses urgent and growing risks to national security. The risks of advanced AI and AGI has the potential to stabilize the global security ways reminiscent of the introduction of weapons. And AGI is a hypothetical technology that could perform most tasks at or above the level of a human. And such systems do not currently exist. But leading AI labs are working on them and many AI AGI and many expect AGI to arrive within the next five years or less. And what's interesting is that, you know, the report recommends, should be set by a new federal AI agency. Although the report suggests as an example that the agency could set it just above the levels of computing power used to train cutting Edge models like OpenAI's channel GPT4 and Google's Gemini. You can see right here that it also states that the new AI agency should require AI companies on the frontier of the industry to obtain government permission to train and deploy new models above a certain lower threshold. The report adds authorities should also urgently consider outlawing the publication of weights or inner workings of powerful AI models, for example, under open source licenses, with the violations possibly punishable by jail time. The report says the government shouldn't further tighten controls on the manufacture and export of AI chips and channel Federal funding towards alignment research that seeks to make AI safer. So this is something pretty crazy because I think it was India that actually recently had a law which talked about how you need to get permission before training AI models or something like that. And many people were rightly so, speculating that this is going to slow AI development down a lot. And I'm kind of interested to see how the political landscape actually plays out with such a fast moving technology that is AI, because it seems that they're never really going to catch up. So I have no idea what the US is going to do. It will be interesting to see if they actually do implement this stuff because on one side you do want the safety of the public to be protected, but of course on the other side you do want the US to be the leader in AI if you are someone that lives in the usa. So it will be interesting to see how that comes. But what is your prediction on AGI? Do you think it's coming within seven months? Do you think it's coming within two years? I think it's probably going to be here by 2028. I think an AGI system could be there at this time. I do think that by that time, by that prediction, I do think there will be some kind of government intervention if they start to realize how crazy these technologies are, especially if they start to really have those agentic capabilities. So with that being said, I'd love to know your prediction, what you guys thoughts are and if there was anything missed in this video, leave it down in the comment section below.