Sam Altmans SHOCKING New STATEMENT " NO AGI IN 2024" (Open AI)

So Sam Altman recently made a statement on Twitter that has some people confused and has a real conversation about AGI. So essentially, Sam Altman made a statement stating clearly that AGI is not going to be coming in 2024. And this is quite the statement considering the company's past moves and some of the previous developments that have happened. So let's take a look into the statement, dissect it, and look at some of the actual statements that that Sam Altman himself has said. And let's look into why this is one of the most interesting statements we've seen so far. So you can see here that Sam Altman was actually following up to a Twitter thread where he essentially said, wow, way more requests in the first two minutes for AGI than expected. I'm sorry to disappoint you, but I do not think we can deliver that in 2024. And essentially this was in response to a thread where he spoke about C, some of the things that he's going to be focusing on for OpenAI in 2024. Some of these things we did discuss in a previous video we released yesterday. But essentially he just talks about stuff like BET, GPTs, voice mode, and of course future models of AI like GPT5. But you can see that many people were in fact requesting AGI. But of course he does say here, this is not going to be delivered in 2024. Now, although this isn't going to be delivered in 2024, I don't think that it is a big of a deal because some of the other stuff is definitely crazy. But one of the things we do need to look into is what exactly is AGI? And this video I'm about to show you right here is essentially a video in which Sam Altman actually talks about what he thinks the definition of AGI is. The reason I'm showing you this video is because if you've been around in the AI space long enough, you'll know that not even some of the most esteemed AI researchers and figures can agree exactly on what AGI is. But that's something we're going to get onto later on in the video. But for now, take a look at what Sam Altman says, because it's a very interesting position he holds, which means how he makes AGI defines it will determine how it is built.

How would you define AGI and how.

Do you think you'll know to account? He described AGI as a simple, essentially robot that can do anything that a base level human can do. So not that much smarter than the average human, but good enough so that I guess it could pass most benchmarks. So that is rather fascinating because one thing that we've seen time and time again was that previously, anytime we spoke about AI, it is very interesting because what tends to happen is every time we do forward, we move forward on a new frontier of AI, there is constantly a new benchmark proposed saying, this isn't that good and this isn't AGI. But I will be showing you guys exactly where Sam Altman talks further about this. Now, something that I did want to also talk about was, are there contrasting opinions? Because the other day, one OpenAI employee actually tweeted, Brace yourselves, AGI is coming. So in response to Jan, like the head of super alignment at OpenAI, they were talking about their new preparedness framework for Superintelligent. Okay? And essentially what they were talking about is how they're going to prepare for any dangerous AI system. We actually did do a deep dive on this. It's very, very intensive. Super interesting. But of course, this tweet, brace yourselves, AGI is coming from an Open A employee. And then, of course, we have Sam Altman saying, sorry, we can't deliver AGI in 2024 is quite interesting. But at the same time, what that does mean is that just because we're not getting it in 2024, it doesn't mean we're not going to get it in 2025. And that is why I always say you do need to pay attention to exactly, exactly what it said. Because, remember, we actually got GPT4 in 2023, but they actually had GPT4 in 2022. Well, that's when it finished training. They spent a couple of months doing reinforcement learning. And remember, that now means that in 2024, GPT4 is going to be around two years old, not two years from release, but two years since they've had that system, which does mean that could we be getting AGI in 2025. And before you think, whoa, whoa, whoa, that's too much hype, that's too much craziness, AGI is 10 years away. Take a look at some of the other statements done by other people so that you can see what the general consensus is. Now, of course, we also have the other thing where Sam Altman did actually say, thanks a lot for some of these Commodore quints, and then he talks about AGI. A little patience, please. You want to take a look at One of the CEOs of Anthropic, which is another AI startup which is, is behind the model Claude 2.1 Claude 2 and of course, this person, Dario Amode actually left OpenAI to start this AI organization because he actually wanted to focus on AI safety. But he actually talks about exactly when AJ will arrive and take a look at his best prediction.

I don't know, I think we might end up in like a weirder world than we expect. When you add all this together, like your estimate of when we get something.

Kind of human level.

Yeah.

What does that look like? I mean, again, it depends on the thresholds.

Yeah.

You know, in terms of someone looks at these, the model and you know, even if you talk to it for, you know, for, for an hour or so, it's, it's basically, you know, it's basically like a general, like that that could happen in, you know, two or three years. Like, you know, if I look at again, like, I think the main thing that would stop it would be if, if we hit certain, certain, you know, and we have internal tests for, you know, safety thresholds and stuff like that. So if a company or the industry decides to slow down or, you know, we're able to get the government institute restrictions that kind of, you know, that moderate the rate of progress for safety reasons, that would be the main reason it wouldn't happen. But if you, if you just look at the logistical and economic ability to scale, I don't think we're very far at all from that now that, that may not be the threshold where the models are existentially dangerous. In fact, I suspect it's not, not quite there yet. It may not be the threshold where the models can take over most AI research. It may not be the threshold where the models, you know, seriously change how the economy works. I think it gets a little murky after that, and all those thresholds may happen at various times after that. But I think, I think in terms of the base technical capability of kind of sounds like a reasonably generally educated human.

Yeah.

I don't know, I think we might end up in like a weirder world than we.

So I think that first clip was really interesting because he actually describes AGI as around two to three years away and this is around six to eight months ago. So remember, AGI is just a base system that can do any task on a computer as good as any standard, well educated human can. So this is also fascinating because it goes to show that AGI might just be closer than some of you do think. And although AGI might not be coming in 2025, they didn't rule out 2026 or 2027, which means to say that those should be some very surprising years. And what's also interesting was that AI is definitely a fast moving pace and we do know that OpenAI works on tons of different things things. And if Q Star even adds a hint of legitimacy to it, we could definitely be seeing some further AI developments that maybe aren't even AGI, but it definitely profound. But then there was also something very fascinating that was discussed on, on the Duar Keshe Patel podcast that I figured you all needed to take a look at.

Is there good enough for AGI or just simply that nobody has tried hard enough? It would be hard for me to speak to, you know, current tech company practices. And of course there may be many attacks that we don't know about, where things are stolen and then silently used. You know, I mean, I think an indication of it is when someone really cares, basically cares about attacking someone, then, then often the attacks happen. So, you know, recently we saw that some fairly high officials of the US Government had their email accounts hacked via, via Microsoft. Microsoft was providing the email accounts. So, you know, presumably that that related to information that was, you know, of great interest to, you know, to foreign adversaries. And so it sounds, it seems to me, at least, you know, that the evidence is more consistent with, you know, when something is really high enough value than, you know, than, you know, someone acts and it's stolen. And my worry is that of course with, with AGI, we'll get to a world where, you know, the value is seen as incredibly high, right? That, you know, it'll be like stealing nuclear missiles or something. You can't be too careful on this stuff. And you know, at every place that I've worked, I push for the cybersecurity to be better.

So like I said, that was a fascinating piece from the Dwarkesh Patel podcast because of course it goes to show that AGI will possess a huge amount of economical value that may be akin to so much value that people may try to steal it. Now, I do think that stealing AGI is quite impossible, but at the same time, it goes to show how valuable this technology will be once it is released. Now, AGI arriving is of course going to be a monumental moment, and whichever company is working on that and manages to deliver on that will definitely be a company that is valuable for the next decade and foreseeable future to come. But I do think you all should take a look at this clip from the Lex Freeman podcast where I was previously discussing the benchmarks and how some People don't realize just how good GPT4 is. And some people even stating that Sam Altman shipped an AGI and people don't even realize it. For the reason I'm saying that is because if GPT4 was released, let's say, perhaps five or 10 years ago, some people would instantly say that it is an AGI level system. But later on in the video I will get into some of the actual benchmarks that you can use to tell what kind of AGI systems are. But of course, take a look at this clip because Sam Altman's statement is actually quite.

Someone said to me over the weekend you shipped an AGI and I somehow like am just going about my daily life and I'm not that impressed. And I obviously don't think we shipped an AGI, but I get the point and the world is continuing on.

When you build or somebody builds an artificial general intelligence, would that be fast or slow? Would we know what's happening or not? Would we go about our day on the weekend or not?

So I'll come back to the would.

We go about our day or not Thing. I think there's like a bunch of interesting lessons from COVID and the UFO videos and a whole bunch of other stuff that we can talk to there.

But on the takeoff question, if we.

Imagine a two by two matrix of short timelines till AGI starts looking long timelines till AGI starts, slow takeoff, fast takeoff. Do you have an instinct on what do you think the safest quadrant would be?

So the different options are like next year.

Yeah, say the takeoff that we start the takeoff period.

Yep.

Next year or in 20 years.

20 years.

And then it takes one year or 10 years. Well, you can even say one year or five years. Whatever you want for the takeoff.

I feel like now is is safer.

So I'm in the longer.

Now I'm in the slow takeoff. Short timelines is the most likely good world. And we optimize the company to have maximum impact in that world, to try to push for that kind of a world. And the decisions that we make are, you know, there's like probability masses, but weighted towards that. And I think I'm very afraid of the fast takeoffs. I think in the longer timelines it's harder to have a slow takeoff. There's a bunch of other problems too, but that's what we're trying to do. Do you think GPT4 is an AGI?

I think if it is, just like with the UFO videos, we wouldn't know immediately. I think it's actually hard to know that. I've been thinking, I was playing with GPT4 and thinking, how would I know if it's an AGI or not? Because I think in terms of, to put it in a different way, how much of AGI is the interface I have with the thing and how much of it is the actual wisdom inside of it? Like, part of me thinks that you can have a model that's capable of super intelligence and it just hasn't been quite unlocked. What I saw with ChatGPT, just doing that little bit of RL with human feedback makes the thing some much more impressive, much more usable. So maybe if you have a few more tricks, like you said, there's like hundreds of tricks inside OpenAI. A few more tricks and all of a sudden, holy shit.

So that clip right there goes to show you that AGI isn't as far away as we do think. And even when AGI does actually arrive, some of us might not even realize it's here because we are so used to the technological advances now. One of the things I do think is also interesting about AGI and the future technologies is what it will actually mean for everyone. There is, of course, the discussion of the Singularity, which is a point in time that technology is so advanced that we don't know what happens after that point. And some have theorized that this is going to take place in the year 2045, which is around 22 years away or 21 years away. Now, the only thing that we do need to focus on, which is going to be the next step in AI, and is of course, what AGI actually does mean for us. Now, there are several different economic theories and possibilities that people have put forward, but of course, Sam Altman has given his insights onto what he thinks AGI is actually going to be like for the vast majority of us. So I would take a look at this clip because it actually does show us what the future of AGI means for everyone. And I do hope as well that AGI, once it is released, it actually is good for everyone. Because like I said, I do believe that AGI does have both sides of the spectrum in its hands. On one side, you could have mass job displacement, but on the other side, you could have mass economic prosperity and advanced technology that is available and accessible to everyone.

One of the challenges I think we had in talking about the work that you've done and that OpenAI is doing is helping people understand your vision of what artificial general intelligence means for our future. And so can you Help this room understand how their lives will be changed. You said you can't predict the future, but as we move forward, you know, what will AGI mean for all of us?

I think the two, I mean there's many like, important forces towards the future, but I think the two most important ones are artificial intelligence and energy. If we can make abundant intelligence for the world and if we can create abundant energy, then our ability to have amazing ideas for our children to like teach themselves more than ever before, for people to be more productive, to offer better health care, to uplift the economy, and to actually put those things into action with energy, I think those are two massive, massive things. Now they come with downsides. And so it's on us to figure out how to make this safe and how to like responsibly put this in the hands of people. I think we see a path now where the world gets much more abundant and much better every year. And people have the ability to do way, way more than we can possibly imagine today. And I think we're, I think 2023 was the year we started to see that 2024, we'll see way more of it. And by the time like the end of this decade rolls around, I think the world is going to be in a unbelievably better place. It sounds sort of like silly and sci fi optimism to say this, but if you think about how different the world can be, not only when every person has a, you know, today they have like chatgpt, it's like not very good, but next they have like the world's best chief of staff. And then after that every person has like a company of 20 or 50 experts that can work super well together. And then after that everybody has a company of 10,000 experts in every field that can work super well together. And if someone wants to go focus on curing disease, they can do that. And if someone wants to focus on making great art, they can do that. But if you think about the cost of intelligence and the quality of intelligence, the cost falling, the quality increase in both a lot and what people can do with that. You know, today they have like chatgpt, it's like not very good, but next they have like the world's best chief of staff. And then after that every person has like a company of 20 or 50 experts that can work super well together. And then after that everybody has a company of 10,000 experts in every field that can work super well together. And if someone wants to go focus on curing disease, they can do that. And if someone wants to focus like a very different world, it's the world that Sci fi has promised us for a long time. And for the first time I think we get to start to see what that's going to look like.

So yeah, it could be one of the most successful generations, one of the most happy generations that's filled with a lot of prosperity for everyone involved. But of course, like I said, there's always other things that could happen.

Focus on making great art, they can do that. But if you think about the cost of intelligence and the quality of intelligence, the cost falling, the quality increasing by a lot of and what people can do with that, it's like a very different world. It's the world that Sci fi has promised us for a long time.

Now, one of the people that has predicted AGI technological advancements with really good accuracy is of course Ray Kurzweil. And Ray Kurzweil is Google's director of Engineering and is a well known futurist with a high hitting track record for accurate predictions. So of his 147 predictions since the 1990s, he claims an 86.

And for the first time I think we get to start to see what that's going be to look like.

So yeah, it could be one of the most successful generations, one of the most happy generations that's filled with a lot of prosperity for everyone involved. But of course, like I said, there's always other things that could happen. Now one of the people that has predicted AGI technological advancements with really accuracy rate and essentially he made another prediction about the technological singularity that's going to happen in the next 30 years. So this is exactly what he said. So he said 2029 is the consistent date I have predicted for when AI will pass a valid Turing test and therefore achieve human level of intelligence. I have set the date for to good accuracy is of course Ray Kurzweil. And Ray Kurzweil is Google's director of engineering and is a well known futurist with a high hitting track record for accurate predictions. So of his 147 predictions since the 1990s, he claims an 86% accuracy rate. And essentially he made another prediction about the technological singularity that's going to have 2045 for the singularity, which is when we will multiply our effective intelligence a billion fold, merging with the intelligence we have created. So that is a startling prediction because 2020 happen in the next 30 years. So this is exactly what he said. So he said 2029 is the consistent date. I have predicted for when AI will pass a valid Turing test and therefore achieve human level of intelligence. I've set the date for 29 might seem like it's far away, but if you look back just 20 years or even 30 years at the technology we did have, it definitely looks completely outdated. 2045 for the singularity, which is when we will multiply our effective intelligence. So we can know that with the law of exponential returns and exponential growth and with things like Moore's law where the number of transistors on a chip double every two years, the that means a billion fold merging with the intelligence we have created. So that is a startling prediction because 2029 might seem like it's far away, but if you look back just 20 years or even 30 years at the end, that in the year 2045 or even 2029, the levels of advancement in technology could be extremely significant. Which means that the future does get harder and harder to predict. Now, something that you should note about AGI is actually the definition, because AGI is really, really hard. But of course, Google DeepMind did come out with a paper that sets out the framework on how you can actually assess what skill level the AGI system has. So when quote unquote, AGI does arrive, maybe in 2025, 2026 or even 2029, we'll at least know where it stands on the scale. So they released this paper called Levels of Operationalizing Progress on the Path to AGI. And then it says, we propose a framework for classifying the capabilities behavior of artificial general intelligence models and their precursors. So essentially, if we actually take a look at some of these levels, you can see exactly where we are on this chart. So you can see that we have three columns here. We got performance, generality, narrow AI, and then of course we have general AI. Now of course the narrow AI, we've completely done that. We have excelled and we've gone from level one all the way up to superhuman, which is of course alphafold, alphazero and stockfish, which is outperforming 100% of humans. We have. Where we are in the general area is that we are at emerging AGI, which is essentially equal or to somewhat better than an unskilled human. An emerging AGI is of course llama2, Google's Bard and ChatGPT. But we are just about to get to the level of competent AGI, which is general AI, which is a wide range of non physical tasks, including metacognitive abilities like learning new skills. And this is where we would be at least 50th percentile of skilled adults, and this is not yet achieved. So we would have to get get to this level of AGI. Then of course we would need to get to expert AGI, which is 90% of skilled adults, then virtuoso AGI, which is at least 99th percent of skilled adults, then superhuman AGI, which would actually be artificial superintelligence, which is not yet achieved. So so far it looks like the next step, which is going to be competent AGI, might be released very, very soon. And this is good because although some people might not agree on the exact definition of AGI, and at least we do have definitions, so we at least know exactly which kind of chart that we are in. So currently we're at this stage emerging AGI and until the system does manage to get to at least the 50th percentile of skilled adults, it will be interesting to see the kind of AGI systems developed then. Of course, I'd like to talk about this video in which we actually did discuss where some people were claiming that OpenAI had achieved AGI. And this is of course from some statements from Sam Altman himself, and where he actually joked about AGI achieved AGI being achieved internally. Whether or not there have been hiccups on that journey or there have been some slight changes due to OpenAI's board being demolished and some other things happening. I do think that some clips from the video, and I will leave a link to the full video are definitely worth a second watch because the next five to 10 years are going to be some of the most important for our generation even matter. Jimmy Apples, if you didn't know, is essentially an OpenAI leaker. We aren't sure of what he is or what what he does, but we do know that he always does have early information about GPT4 or whatever OpenAI is currently working on. If you're wondering about any skepticism regarding his statements, previous statements around OpenAI have come out with 100% accuracy. For example, he actually tweeted and got the Release date of GPT4 a week before it was even announced. Meaning that he definitely has some kind of inside information. Now, many sources speculate that this Jimmy Apples guy is someone that spies on people near the OpenAI headquarters. Now you can see that there's a 10 minute video which goes into this and they talk about how Jimmy Apple says that let's pick a random date and March 14th. And then of course GPT4 is of course announced on that exact date. We know that this person, whoever they are, definitely has some inside information. Now back to the statement about AGI. He said that AGI has been achieved internally on September 18, 2023. Now, what's crazy is that a week later the CEO Sam Altman tweeted that AGI has been achieved internally. Okay? And he tweeted this on a certain post. And then what was crazy was that he actually edited this comment and said, obviously this is just memeing. When AGI is achieved, it will be announced and it won't be announced with a Reddit comment. So at the same time, it seems that Sam Altman is aware of this OpenAI leaker and and he understands that whatever is going on behind the scenes, that Jimmy Apples is likely to know a decent amount about it. So at the same time, I find it super interesting that Jimmy Apples goes ahead and says AGI has been achieved internally. Then little bit over A month later, OpenAI start to talk about AGI and state that AGI is simply their main focus and their core values. Anything that doesn't help with that is out of scope. Which leads me to believe that Sam Altman and his team at OpenAI are much closer to AGI than we initially. Interesting. The Jimmy Apples goes ahead and says AGI has been achieved internally. Then little bit over a month later, OpenAI.