In this early weekly market update, lender Jordan Keck informs viewers that he will be out of the office for three days and directs inquiries to his assistant Tyler. He notes that the national average mortgage rate rose slightly from 6.56% to 6.62% as the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut this month has decreased, explaining how Fed expectations influence mortgage rates. Keck then provides a mortgage tip about appraisal ordering: conventional, FHA, and USDA loans are typically ordered through appraisal management companies (AMCs) with upfront borrower payment, whereas VA loans must be ordered via the VA portal, are paid after completion, and have longer turn times (up to 15 business days in Oregon) but give immediate appraiser contact information. He reviews the Cotality Homebuyer Survey, highlighting that 63% of Gen Z buyers feel uninformed about the market, only one‑third would work exclusively with a lender/agent, and 71% prefer a blend of human interaction and technology. Keck reports that Zillow’s July rental index shows year‑over‑year rent growth slowing to 2.6% (down from 2.9%), with most growth coming from new leases. He then discusses housing‑supply indicators: permits fell 3% (driven by multifamily), starts rose 5%, completions rose 6% (driven by single‑family), and the NAHB builder sentiment index held at 32 (well below the neutral 50). Finally, he notes that existing home sales rose 2% in July, yielding an annualized 4.01 million sales (still below the 5‑5.5 million norm), inventory increased 0.6% month‑over‑month and 15.7% year‑over‑year, and 21% of homes sold above list price (down from 29% YoY). He closes with a weekend wish and reminder of his return next Thursday.
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Good afternoon and happy Thursday. Jordan Keck here, your lender buddy, with your weekly market update coming a little bit early because I will be out of the office tomorrow through Wednesday. So during that time, please reach out to my assistant Tyler. His email and phone number will be in the email there, but he'll have access to all of my files, all of the information needed there and make sure that the ball will not get dropped on anything. Even if it's new clients, he is licensed and able to get clients started with preapproval and chatting through those options, setting up preapproval letters, whatever you need. So again, while I'm gone, he'll be able to take great care of everything. And then I will take care of whatever is needed when I get back on Thursday. As far as interest rates moving up a little bit from 6.56% last week to 6.62% this week. As the national average for lenders across the country. Part of that is because there's a declining chance of the Federal Reserve cutting rates this next month, and mortgage rates tend to anticipate that. So the higher the likelihood of that rate cut, the earlier and the more likely that mortgage rates will drop in anticipation. Because of some of the commentary coming out from the Fed and some data that's been driving it lately, it's been reducing the chance of that rate cut, so mortgage rates ticking a little bit higher as a result. Depending on the data between now and that next meeting when the Fed determines if they're going to cut rates or not, that will further determine where we go for mortgage rates. As far as this week's mortgage tip, I want to talk about appraisal order timing and process. Now, most of the time, conventional, FHA, and USDA loans, the default is that the order gets placed with an AMC or an appraisal management company. It's a third party that they'll place an order to their panel of appraisers, have somebody accept it, give an ETA on their turn time, and have that paid upfront. Most lenders will have the borrower pay for that appraisal. I personally, I'm covering those costs upfront so it can be reimbursed at closing as a way of just making that a little bit simpler and easier. Now, this is different though from the VA appraisal process, which has to be ordered directly through the VA portal. So it doesn't go through an AMC. The differences on that are that it isn't going to be paid ahead of time. It can typically only be paid after the report is completed, and then the VA gives a specific amount of time depending on the location. For the state of Oregon, we have one of the slowest turn times, allowing appraisers up to 15 business days to deliver the report from the day that it's ordered. And so they don't have to take that full time, but they could take up to a full 3 weeks or deliver it sooner. They also don't give an ETA if it will come in sooner, but the one different thing on VA that is nice is the moment it's ordered, we know who the appraiser is we have their contact information, whereas on conventional, FHA, and USDA, since it's through an AMC, we don't have their contact information and have to pass messages through a third party. Next up, as far as this week's data, Cotality Homebuyer Survey showed that most Gen Z buyers are not informed about the market. They said that 63% of respondents for Gen Z buyers said they didn't feel informed about the current real estate market. And only a third said that they would work exclusively with their lender, the real estate professional. And 71% said they prefer having a human alongside the technology. Now, this is a really encouraging statistic, as you see a lot of technology coming up or companies that are trying to outsource with AI, completely getting rid of the human aspect when we're seeing the vast majority of people still prefer working with that human. The point, only a third working exclusively though, and having people feel like they're not informed just shows further value that you can provide in providing that level of trust and that level of resourcefulness to help them feel educated along that process. Zillow's rental index for July fell from 2.9% to 2.6% year over year. And this is for combined, for blended rents between new rents and existing rent renewals for the entire year. So with those, rents are still increasing nationally, but at a much slower pace than before. We're seeing a deceleration in the rate of rent increases there. The vast majority of the increases is going to be for new rents, whereas existing rents there that are just renewals don't see as big of an increase. Next up, housing permits fell 3% last month while starts increased by 5% and completions rose 6%. For permits, this is the most forward-looking indicator of supply coming on the market. And the biggest decline here since that 3% fall was in multifamily permits. Single-family was actually up about half a percent for the month. Completions being up 6% is due pretty much exclusively to single-family rather than multifamily completions. And the NAHB Homebuilder Sentiment Report stayed at 32. Remember that 50 is kind of the break-even point. Anything above 50 signals growth and expansion. Below 50 signals contraction. So coming in at 32, not a great number, no changes there. The level for traffic did increase 2 points but to a very low level, still at only 22 as far as home buyer traffic. And lastly here, existing home sales are up 2% for the month of July, stronger than the half a percent decline that was expected. This puts us at about a 4.01 million annualized pace, which is still below the norm of about 5 to 5.5 million with sales up roughly 1% year over year. Inventory was up 0.6% for June and is up 15.7% year over year, with 21% of homes selling above the list price, which is down from 29% last year. As always, hopefully this is helpful. Have a great weekend. I will see you next Thursday when I'm back in the office, and until next time, take care.
