In this weekly market update, Jordan Keck greets viewers, shares a brief personal note about his recent anniversary and conference, and then dives into several mortgage‑related topics. He reports that the national average mortgage rate for a 25%+ down purchase rose from 6.81% to 6.91% and cautions lenders not to quote this average directly to borrowers because individual rates vary with loan size, credit score, down payment, and loan type. He explains the VA appraisal process, highlighting that VA appraisals are assigned directly through a VA portal, that appraisers have up to 15 business days (in Oregon) to deliver a report, and that the timeline can cause closing delays. He reviews the June Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation numbers – headline up 0.1% month‑over‑month, year‑over‑year 2.5%; core up 0.2% month‑over‑month, year‑over‑year 2.6% – noting the Fed’s 2% target and the potential for future rate cuts. He then covers the initial Q2 GDP estimate of 2.8% annualized, well above the 2% forecast, driven largely by consumer spending. Housing market data follows: new‑home sales fell 0.6% to a 617,000 annualized pace, with only 102,000 of 476,000 homes for sale completed (≈2 months of completed‑home inventory versus 8‑10 months overall). Existing‑home sales dropped 5.4% to a 3.89 million annualized pace, inventory rose 3.1% to 1.32 million homes (4.1‑month supply), homes spent an average 22 days on market, and 29% sold above list price. He wraps up with a reminder about his recurring $10 Texas Hold’em poker tournament, invites viewers to join, and encourages subscriptions and sharing of the video.
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Good morning and happy Friday. Jordan Keck here, your lender buddy, with your weekly market update. First off, want to appreciate everybody for giving me the time away while I was gone last weekend and up through Wednesday of this week. Had my 12-year anniversary, so got to spend some time with my wife and kids down in Arizona, get to see my sister, and also do a couple days at a conference. So got all of that in together. Glad to be back though. So again, appreciate everybody for the grace during that time and reaching out to Tyler to get things taken care of and continued moving forward. As far as interest rates this week, moving up a little bit from 6.81% last week to 6.91% this week. And just a continual reminder on this, this is just an indicator of average market rates for lenders across the country for a purchase scenario with 25% down or more I think it's a $400,000 or $500,000 loan amount, top-tier credit, so in the 800s. It's just, and as soon as you start changing any of those factors, even going to a refinance, if it's a different type of a loan, if you have less or more money for down payment, that can change those rates. And again, that's an average for it. So this is something to keep track of where the market's going, not something that you should be telling clients that they are going to be getting. For their rates. They might be getting something better, they might be getting something worse, but it's just going to depend on this scenario. So make sure that you're not using that as a quote again for clients' rates, just using it as an indication of where rates are going, either up or down. Next up, as far as our weekly mortgage tip, wanted to talk about the VA appraisal process and timing. So VA is very unique in that most every other type of loan requires requires you to go through an appraisal management company, which is a third-party company that basically randomly assigns the appraiser to do the report. And so we may not know who the appraiser is until after we get the report back. VA doesn't do that. When we order a VA appraisal, we would go directly through a VA website, and then we immediately know that it's assigned to a particular appraiser, and we have their contact information. Now, we're still not supposed to reach out and try and influence value in any sort of way. It's a very limited contact there. So you can maybe ask if they have an idea about when the report might be back. But that goes into the timing piece. The VA, they give their appraisers a specific amount of time based on the area, usually the state, to deliver the report. And they don't have to deliver it any sooner than that. They don't allow rush fees. So in Oregon, the VA gives their appraisers up to 15 business days to deliver a report from the time that it's ordered. So that's basically 3 full weeks that they have to deliver that report. Now, most often appraisers are going to deliver it faster than that, but the VA does not require them to deliver it any sooner. So with that knowledge, just be aware, especially if we're waiting for the inspection to be done, if we're doing a 30-day contract, we might run into situations where if an appraiser is not willing to deliver that report any sooner, you could run into some potential closing delays. And so again, be very aware of that, that it's kind of a hit and miss. It's a very outdated process, I believe, you know, the 15 days, it made sense when we had appraisers who were taking a month, 2 months to get reports back. But now they just haven't updated it since that time with the current market. So just be aware that that is the situation with VA appraisals. Next up, PCE, the Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation report, came out for June. This is one of the most important measures of inflation that the Federal Reserve watches when looking at what they're going to be doing moving forward and is inflation on track with their objective of 2% annual core PCE inflation. That's what they're looking at. The headline number came in only up 0.1% for June, which is right in line with estimates. And year over year declined from 2.6% to 2.5%, again right in line with estimates, partially due to energy prices falling 1% for the month alone. The core rate, which strips out food and energy prices, rose 0.2%, which is slightly above the flat to 0.1% expected for the month, and year over year remained at 2.6%, but was expected to drop between 2.4% and 2.5%. Still not too bad at all, definitely getting really close to that 2.0% number the Fed's looking for. And as long as we're on track for that, the Fed has said that they're willing to start looking at rate cuts knowing that we're on the right trajectory. The second quarter GDP initial reading came out, and this is just the first of three ultimate readings. There's the first reading, there's going to be a first adjustment, and then the final revision, which will come out several months from now. But the initial reading came out showing the US economy grew by a 2.8% rate. which was well above estimates of about 2%. Previous quarter only showed 1.4%, so really big increase here. A lot of that did come from the consumer spending component. Next up, new home sales fell 0.6% for June to a 617,000 annualized pace, which was lower than estimates. There was a positive revision to the previous month though, which made this month, made this month look lower than it otherwise would have been because last month if it revised higher, of course, the decrease between those two months is going to seem more drastic. Now, of the 476,000 new homes that were for sale at the end of June, only 102,000 of those were actually completed and available to move into. So 374,000 of the new homes for sale were either not started or still under construction at that time. So if you look at the number of months of inventory for new homes available, Initially, you might see it come out somewhere between 8 to 10 months of inventory. But if you look at the just completed portion of it, that I think is around 2 months worth of inventory. So take that with a grain of salt. And lastly here, existing home sales for June fell 4.5%— excuse me, 5.4% for the month to a 3.89 million annualized pace, below the 3% drop that was expected. Sales now year over year are down 5.4%. Inventory did increase nationally as well, 3.1% to 1.32 million units. So 1.32 million homes for sale on the market, leading to a 4.1-month supply of homes nationally. As far as the average, the home spent 22 days on the market, and that's down from 24 days average on the market in May. 26 on the market in April, with 29% of homes still selling for above the list price. So even though you do see more inventory coming on, you do see home sales down a little bit, you're still seeing right-priced homes moving fairly quickly, and a decent amount getting offers above the asking price as well. As always, hopefully this is helpful. And just as a quick reminder, I am starting to do that poker tournament here more regularly. We've having some great turnouts. So if it's something you're interested in, let me know. I always want to make sure that I'm not overbooking it. So I usually do stop inviting once we're filled. This next one coming up in a couple of weeks, pretty much at capacity. But if you're looking for being involved in future tournaments in the coming months, let me know and I'm happy to get you on the invite list for that. Again, $10 buy-in, great time, Texas Hold'em. So the biggest thing is, are you somebody that you feel like you'd be able to have fun winning or losing, not gonna be super serious. I mean, we're all there to have a good time on it, and that really is the key. So if you're somebody who likes to go to the casinos and try and make as much money as possible playing Texas Hold'em, this is probably the tournament for you. If you've played a couple times with buddies before, you know, you like the idea of hanging out and having a good time and want to be able to spend some time with friends, this is probably the game you're looking for. So again, as always, hopefully this is helpful. Pass it along to somebody you think may benefit and have them subscribe below if they want to get this on a regular basis. Hope you have a wonderful weekend. We'll see you next time. Take care.
