In this October 25, 2024 weekly market update, Jordan Keck (the "lender buddy") covers several key points for mortgage professionals and consumers. He announces a forthcoming sales masterclass focused on language, client acquisition, and conversion tactics, though dates are not set yet. He reports that mortgage rates have risen from 6.68% to 6.90% since the Fed’s recent rate cut, urging clients to lock rates early to avoid upward surprises. A quick Oregon property‑tax tip explains that yellow tax bills are paid by the lender, while green bills must be paid by the homeowner. He then reviews macro data: September durable‑goods orders fell 0.8% (transportation‑driven), core durable goods rose 0.5%; initial jobless claims dropped 15,000 to 227,000, but continuing claims rose to 1.897 million, the highest since Nov 2021; existing home sales slipped 1% month‑over‑month and 3.5% year‑over‑year, with inventory up 1.5% and a 4.3‑month supply. The Mortgage Bankers Association reported purchase applications down 5% and refinance applications down 8% for the week, though purchases remain slightly ahead and refinances are up 90% year‑over‑year. Finally, Keck announces that he now offers commercial finance services for transactions ranging from $100 k to over $100 M, covering loans, acquisitions, and development across various property types. The update ends with a friendly weekend wish.
Chapters
Good morning and happy Friday. Jordan Keck here, your lender buddy, with your weekly market update. Last one of the month for October, and then next week heading into November. Kicking things off, I did want to let you know that it's not official yet, but I am starting to take interest from people about a new sales masterclass I'll be putting on. We're going to talk about how to be able to phrase certain language and gaining clients, whether that's through postcards, whether that's through social media, and also just tips on how to be able to get business in and also those conversations of converting clients to get them for a signed buyer's agreement, listing contract, and then all the way through closing with those skills. So something that I've been passionate about learning and developing for myself over the last decade plus, and want to be able to pass those along. So if you're interested in that, it's not official yet. We don't have dates yet, but let me know if you or anyone you know are wanting to be first in line when that opens up to be able to get seats for it, because they're going to have a cap on size. So excited to be able to release more information about that soon. Interest rates this week still moving the trend upwards from last week, last at 6.68%, now moving up to 6.90%. Moving up almost 3/4 of a percent in interest rate since the Federal Reserve cut the Fed funds rate about a month ago. So ever since, especially, you know, that was October— excuse me, September 18th. Since that time, October's seen a lot of rate movement higher and not sure where that will go. So as always, always recommending clients to lock in an interest rate up front, prevent rates from moving, because if they happen to go down, there's usually ways we can float down or change lenders to take advantage of that, but if rates go up and you're not locked, unfortunately no protection there. So whether it's with me or a different lender, always make sure you get that rate locked in upfront to avoid surprises during the process. As far as the mortgage tip for this week, wanting to talk about property tax statements, because a lot of clients, especially if they're first-time homebuyers bought within the last year, are probably getting those in the mail right about now for the first time. With that, a lot of confusion every year comes with, hey, I thought my mortgage tax, you know, my mortgage company was paying my property taxes. Why am I getting a bill saying that I owe this money? Well, a quick and easy one, at least within Oregon, is that if your property tax bill is yellow, means you don't have to pay that. Another copy was sent to the mortgage lender, and they are going to be paying it on your behalf. If it's green, that means you do have to pay it. So if it's green, you've got to pay some green for those property taxes. So if you have any clients that are getting those for the first time, or you get one yourself, quick and easy way there. So just remember, if it's green, you've got to pay it. If it's yellow, your lender will take care of it and you're just getting a copy for your records. Next up here, we've got durable goods orders fell for the month of September by 0.8%. August was also revised lower, originally coming in with a flat reading. Revised to a -0.8% as well. This pretty much was all due to transportation, though. When you take that out, total durable goods orders without transportation rose 0.4% and core durable goods rose 0.5%, stronger than estimates of only 0.1%. This is largely unchanged, though, since about 2022. From the 2022 levels, we haven't seen a whole lot of variation or fluctuation month to month in the durable goods. Initial jobless claims fell 15,000 for the week to 227,000, while continuing claims rose by 28,000. Continuing claims now at 1.897 million are the highest we've seen since November of 2021, and they've remained high for several months now at or right about this same level. In the last month alone, the continuing claims rose about 80,000 total. And this unemployment rate doesn't take into account anyone who's past the total benefit time frame. So if their benefits have expired for continuing claims, doesn't mean that they're back on the job, but they're no longer counted as unemployed in the total unemployment rate. Next up, existing home sales for the month of September fell 1%, which is right about in line with estimates. Sales were down 3.5% year over year, with a 3. Annualized pace for the month. Inventory increased 1.5% for the month nationally to 1.39 million units, up to be about 23% increase year over year. And there's about a 4.3-month supply of homes on the market nationally, not taking into account homes that are already under contract. And lastly here, the MBA, the Mortgage Bankers Association, reported that purchase applications fell 5% for the week, and refinance applications fell 8%. Purchase applications are still up about 3% year over year, and refinances are up 90%. Refinances made up about 47.5% of all applications for the last week, so purchase applications just barely squeaking over the lead between those two. And lastly, just a reminder as well that I am now able to start doing commercial finance transactions. So if you you or somebody that you know, a client, either has a commercial property that needs to get refinanced with a lot of bank notes at 3, 5, or 7-year terms, or somebody looking to acquire a piece of commercial property, whether that's land, something to develop, whether it's an office space, multifamily, SBA loans, HUD loans, you name it, I've got you covered. Got an incredible team around me on that side and able to help anything from $100,000 up to over $100 million. So happy to help take care of— look at anything you've got there and start helping both on the residential and the commercial side. Hope you have a fantastic weekend. We'll see you next time. Take care.
