In this early‑morning market‑commentary video, Kenny Polcari delivers a rapid‑fire briefing on the latest global financial and geopolitical developments as of May 6 2026. He opens with a snapshot of market moves – U.S. equities hitting new highs, bonds rallying, oil plunging and gold soaring – driven by optimism around a potential cease‑fire agreement and a forthcoming de‑mining of a key shipping strait. He recaps the week’s events, from Iran’s drone attack on the UAE and the U.S. “Project Freedom” naval response, to the VIX retreat and commodity price swings. Polcari then dissects earnings reports, highlighting AMD’s blow‑out results, Palantir’s lofty valuation paradox, and a mixed batch of corporate outcomes (Pfizer, Tyson Foods, PayPal, Disney, Uber, Arm, etc.), using these to gauge consumer health, AI demand, and energy sector pressure. He previews upcoming macro data – ADP jobs, JOLTS, PMI, new‑home sales, and the crucial NFP report – and warns investors to interpret the numbers cautiously. A substantial segment warns that even if a political cease‑fire is announced, the strait’s mines and soaring war‑risk insurance premiums will keep shipping costs high for months, urging investors to avoid FOMO and stay disciplined. Polcari plugs Slatestone Wealth for personalized guidance, then shifts to a detailed steak pizzaiola recipe, and finishes with a brief note on the cloudy Florida weather. The video blends analytical market insight, geopolitical risk assessment, practical investment advice, and a personal culinary interlude.
Chapters
Well, good morning. Yes, it's me, Kenny Polcari, your host of the party. And today is Wednesday, May 6th, 2026. Oh my God, here are the things that you need to know to get your day started. Well, apparently yesterday stocks anticipated this morning's headline as the S&P and the NASDAQ printed new highs. The media announces a one-pager this morning to end the conflict. But there are strings attached. Global markets are on fire. Bonds are up, yields are down, oil's down, gold is up. And what do we have for dinner? We're gonna have the steak pizza. Okay, look, it is breaking news. Trump announces great progress. Pakistan's foreign minister says that the two sides are close to stitching a deal. The media is reporting that the White House is close to a one-page memorandum of understanding to end the war and set the framework for more detailed nuclear negotiations. Asian markets closed higher. The KOSPI in South Korea up 6.5% after being closed for a holiday. Australia up 1.3%. Japan up 0.4%. Hong Kong up 1.2%. And China is up 1.5%. European markets are going parabolic. They're up more than 2% across the board and moving higher. Oil is collapsing this morning, down 7.2% at $95 a barrel. Gold is surging, gaining $145 to trade at $4,700 on the idea that the upward pressure on inflation is now fading, which means pressure on the Fed may also be fading. Think possible rate cuts are back on the table, and the key word here is possible. I don't think so, but let's see. Meanwhile, bonds are being bought, and that is causing yields to decline significantly. The 2-year down 7 bps at 3.86%. The 10-year down 7 bps at 4.34%, while the 30-year is down 6 bps at 4.92%. And it's causing US futures to push higher. Tech leading the way after last night's blowout report by AMD, which is trading up 19% or $66 in the pre-market at $421. Dow futures up 1%. S&P's up 8/10. NASDAQ up 1.4%. And the Russell's up 1.6% and moving higher. And I'm already exhausted. It's only 5 o'clock in the morning. Now let's recap the week so far before we get to this morning's fireworks. Just so we put it all together, we'll stitch it together. Monday was ugly, right? Iran attacked the UAE with a barrage of drones and missiles. The US launched Project Freedom to escort ships through the strait. Our Navy sank 6 Iranian small boats that tried to interfere, and oil spiked 4%. The market sold off and fear was back. And then Tuesday, investors, traders, and algos acted like nothing happened. Buyers went shopping and took stocks to new highs. The VIX fell nearly 5% to end the day at 17.40, putting it back into what? The complacent zone. Oil traded as high as $105.48 and as low as $101.08 before closing at $102.27. Gold traded down to $4,513 while bond yields pushed higher. The 30-year ticked at 5.02%. The 10-year ticked at 4.44%, and the 2-year hit 3.95%. The Dow advanced by 356 points or 7/10. The S&P up 58 points or 8/10, a new high. The NASDAQ up 258 points or 1%, another new high. The Russell added 49 points or 1.7%. The transports added 414 points or 2.1%. The equal-weight S&P up 65 points or 8/10, while the MAG7 added 91 points, or just 3/10. In the end, we are back to trading on the geopolitical headlines. I thought honestly that we were going to be over that, but apparently not. And that continues to cause angst one day and celebration the next. Earnings only helping the mood. Pfizer yesterday delivered a solid quarter, beat top and bottom line estimates, reaffirmed guidance, revenues up 5%, and investors loved it. Taking the stock up 0.5%. Tyson Foods also beat expectations, yet it fell 0.5%. PayPal beat the earnings and still got taken out back in the woodshed and whacked because guidance came in softer than expected. They took that stock down 7.7%. And you have to talk about the reaction of Palantir yesterday because they reported on Tuesday after the bell. So yesterday was the day to react, and it was a perfect example of how skittish tech investors can be. Fundamentally, they crushed it. The quarter was monster. Revenues exploded. EPS crushed the estimates. Government revenue surged by 84%. Commercial growth up 133%. Yet they sold it, taking 6.6% out. But why? Because it's trading at what some people would call insane multiples— 110 times forward earnings, 70 times sales. which is well above the software sector that trades at multiples like 20x forward earnings and 12x sales. So you ask, how can that be? Who would pay numbers like that? Well, if you value it like an AI infrastructure company with a defense and intelligence platform that is also a sovereign AI provider with hyperscaler qualities, it changes the picture and how investors think about it. In the end, buyers are betting that is less of a software stock and more of a foundational AI stock, which just means the margin for disappointment is razor, razor, razor thin. Because when you price a stock to perfection, even excellence is no longer enough. I mean, look what they did to Meta. And if you love the name and you believe in the multiple, then you have to think maybe it's on sale, down 23.5% year to date. The chart suggests that it should find support somewhere in the $127, $130 range. And this morning it's quoted down another dollar, $135. Now that in contrast to AMD, who reported after the bell last night, and they too had a blowout quarter. Earnings per share crushed it. Revenues beat the estimates. Data center revenues surging by 57% year over year to $5.8 billion. They raised their second quarter guidance to $11.2 billion versus the $10.5. This is not a misprint. AMD is eating it up, and so is the whole semiconductor complex, up 66% year to date. AMD, right? Uh, Broadcom is up 23% year to date. Marvell is up 98% year to date. Arm up 91% year to date, while NVIDIA is only up 5%. The SOXX ETF is down 60% year to date. And the ego data, yeah, that continues to surprise to the upside. New home sales up 7.4% in March, up from negative 19.9% in February. Services PMIs both in the expansion zone. ISM Services Prices Paid fell to 70.7. That's a positive. And the JOLTS report came in as expected. Today we're gonna get mortgage apps and ADP employment report that's expected to show an increase of 120,000 new jobs versus last month's 62,000. And that's bullish. And that speaks, as it speaks to the job market. The real tell is going to be Friday's NFP report when we get the April report, and that is expected to show 65,000 new jobs, which is down significantly from last month's 178,000 new jobs. But remember, last month was a surprise. We were expecting 65 and got 178. So be careful how you interpret Friday's number. Now, key earnings this morning include some big names, and investors are wasting no time reacting in the pre-market. Disney's up 5%, Uber's up 9%, Arm is exploding, up 13%, Marriott up 1.5%, Albemarle up 4%. Meanwhile, CF Industries is getting hit, down 8.6%, and Apache down 9%. And what's interesting is that the line— is that the lineup touches almost every corner of the economy: consumer, travel, discretionary spending, AI, semis and hyperscale demand, agriculture, fertilizer, and the supply chain, basic materials, and finally energy. So once again, earnings are doing more than just moving stocks. They are giving investors a real-time read on the health of who— the consumer, the strength of the AI trade, and the direction of energy prices and the state of the global economy. And right now the message apparently seems to be clear: consumers are spending, AI demand is still white hot, but energy and commodity-sensitive sectors are starting to feel the pressure from all this geopolitical uncertainty and oil volatility. And so let's go on to today. Global markets are on fire. The headlines are screaming that an agreement is moments away and that the strait will open and ships will navigate the canal without fear. Huh. But remember, there are 2,000+ ships that are stranded in, in the strait. There are some 10,000 mines spread across the strait, and the sea currents now taking them to locations unknown. Estimates suggest it could be 6 months to clear them. So before you go breaking open the champagne bottle, understand that even if Trump walks out here this morning and announces a deal, we are still likely months away from the strait being truly open for business at— again, at any scale, right? Remember, the mines don't care about ceasefire agreements. And guess what? Neither do the insurance companies. War risk premiums on tankers have exploded to as high as 5% in some cases, right? Think about that just for one minute. That's not a rounding error. That is a massive increase in the cost of global shipping. And insurers are not— not just like gas prices— not going to suddenly slash their premiums because politicians held a press conference that promises we're going to work together. Not happening. Premiums are going to come down when the mines are cleared, when the shipping lanes are verified safe and tanker operators regain their confidence, and the world is convinced that ships can move through the Strait without becoming, you know, a target. Until then, the Strait may be open politically, but it may not be fully functional economically. And that matters because elevated shipping costs still mean higher freight costs, which includes oil, diesel, jet fuel, chemicals, plastics, fertilizers. So even if the shooting stops today or tomorrow, the economic aftershocks will continue to ripple through the global economy for weeks, if not months. Which only means don't get FOMOized, don't become emotional. You have a portfolio, you are invested, You are not missing out. If the market takes off, you're going right along with it, right? The S&P closed at 7,259, up 58 points, closing at a new high. Futures this morning are suggesting that we're going to kiss another new century mark, 7,600, which means it took us 2 and a half weeks since we pierced it on April 15th after the sell-off we saw, right? It's amazing. Let's hope that the headlines are really true this time. You could call me at 561-931-0190, and let's talk about how Slatestone Wealth can help you navigate all through this to reach your end goals. Okay, so now it's time for dinner. What are we having? Steak pizzaiola. Why not? So delicious. For this, you need a couple of things: a nice ribeye or a T-bone, 3/4 of an inch thick, olive oil, oregano, garlic, onions, red and green bell peppers, a can of crushed tomatoes, not puree, You need some red wine, salt and pepper, crushed red pepper flakes, which are optional, right? You can use them. I don't, but you can. Now in a saucepan, heat the olive oil and add the crushed and sliced garlic and move it around for a couple of minutes until it's all nice and golden. Add in the sliced white onion and the julienne bell peppers. Turn the heat to medium and cover them. You don't wanna burn them, right? When the onions and the peppers are soft, maybe 5 to 8 minutes, you're gonna add in the, can of crushed tomatoes. Season it with oregano and red pepper flakes here if you want, salt and pepper. Turn up the heat and bring, bring it to a quick boil and then reduce the heat to medium. Now you're gonna add in about 1/2 cup of red wine and you can taste it again. If you need to adjust with salt and pepper, do that. Let it simmer and thicken up about 10 to 12 minutes. Now rub your steaks, massage them nice with olive oil, salt and pepper. Don't drown the steak in oil. Just enough to massage the steaks and prepare them for the grill. Sear the steaks on the grill, cook them for about 3 minutes per side, then remove them because you're gonna add the steaks to the peppers and onions and tomato sauce. You're gonna cover and you're gonna turn the heat down to simmer. You're gonna let them stay there for another 3 or 4 minutes. This should give you a nice medium steak depending on the thickness. If you prefer, you know, if you prefer a little bit more well done, then just let it simmer in there a little bit longer. When it's done, remove the steaks from the pan. You're going to slice it at a diagonal into thick strips and arrange it on the plate. Should be enough to feed 2 to 4 adults depending on who's hungry and who's for dinner. Next, you're going to stir the sauce in the skillet pan to deglaze it a little bit, making sure to scrape the pan, any bits from the bottom of the pan. Spoon the sauce now over the steak and serve it immediately. Present this meal with a large mixed salad of of arugula and Boston bibb and romaine topped with tomatoes, red onions, cucumbers dressed in a red wine vinaigrette. This is gonna be delicious. You are gonna love it. You're gonna thank me later. Actually make it and let me know how it came out. Look, it's an interesting day here in Florida, right? It's not completely sunny skies. It's not raining, but it's a little bit cloudy. Let's just see which way the clouds go today. Do they clear? Or do they get— does it get more cloudy? We're about to find out. The market is saying all blue skies ahead. Until tomorrow, take good care.
