In this April 24, 2026 episode, Kenny Polcari delivers a market‑roundup that blends macro analysis, earnings commentary, and a personal cooking segment. He begins by noting that despite a week of strong earnings, markets closed lower as participants emphasized negative headlines. He details the day‑by‑day index moves, the impact of geopolitical tension in Iran on oil prices, and how cautious forward guidance from tech giants (IBM, ServiceNow, Salesforce, Tesla, American Airlines, Meta, Microsoft) muted otherwise solid earnings beats. Polcari argues that AI‑driven productivity gains are prompting a wave of post‑pandemic hiring cuts across big tech. He then shifts to the bond market, highlighting rising 2‑year, 10‑year, and 30‑year yields and interpreting them as a signal that Federal Reserve rate cuts are unlikely. On the positive side, he cites upside surprises in the S&P Manufacturing and Services PMI, retail sales, pending home sales, and the Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index. The centerpiece of the episode is Intel’s after‑hours earnings beat—$13.6 bn revenue, 29 c EPS, 22 % data‑center AI revenue growth, and 41 % margin—propelling the stock up 28 % and sparking a rally in related semiconductor stocks (Marvell, AMD, Arm, semiconductor ETFs). He previews the upcoming earnings week (Microsoft, Google, Meta, Amazon, Apple) coinciding with the FOMC decision, emphasizing that the Fed is expected to hold rates steady. Polcari closes the market segment with a brief promotional plug for Slatestone Wealth. The episode then transitions to a detailed Sicilian linguine‑and‑clam‑sauce recipe, honoring his grandmother, complete with ingredient list, step‑by‑step cooking instructions, serving suggestions, and wine pairing. He ends on a upbeat personal note, wishing listeners a good weekend.
Chapters
Well, good morning. Yes, it's me, Kenny Polcari, your host of the party. And today is Friday, April 24th, 2026. And oh boy, it was one hell of a week. But here are the things you need to know today to get your day started. Well, yesterday they chose to accentuate the negatives. Markets closed lower despite strong earnings. Oil was up, yields up, the VIX was up. After the bell last night, Intel absolutely crushes it. The stock is up 28% this morning. Next week, well, it's just as hot. Lots of earnings coming out, so strap in. And what do we have at dinner tonight? We're gonna have the Sicilian linguine and clam sauce, and that is a nod to my Sicilian grandmother. Okay, remember what I told you yesterday morning when futures were weak? I said, and I quote, "Now be careful. The tone was negative, so there's no need to rush." let the news hit the tape and settle in. Okay, so what actually happened? Because the headlines this morning say stocks closed lower, but that kind of misses the point, right? We came into the session yesterday sitting, uh, at all-time highs in the S&P and in the NASDAQ, riding this wave of ceasefire optimism amid strong earnings momentum. But then Thursday happened, and markets— market participants chose to accentuate the negatives, eliminating anything that was positive, and so down we went. Now don't misunderstand this. It wasn't a crash, it wasn't panicky, buyers didn't disappear. They just got a little bit more selective, more cautious. And when you're sitting at all-time highs, that's really all it takes for stocks to back off. Now we got a slew of earnings reports. Most of them were beats. In fact, we're running at an 80% beat rate this earnings season. Not bad. But instead of focusing on the positives, they focus on anything that suggests caution, weakness, vulnerability, and that causes hesitation. And that subtle shift, well, that's what pressured stocks. Now, by the close, every major index was in the red. Now, yes, it was off the intraday lows, but they still closed in the red. The Dow gave back 180 points, S&P lost 30, the NASDAQ was down 220. The Russell, which had been green most of the day, faded into the close, losing 10 points. The transports lost a whopping 835 points, or 3.8%, by far the, the biggest loser. The Equal Weight S&P ended down 5 points, or less than a tenth of a percent, but not before it was down nearly 1% during the day. The Mag 7, they rounded it out, losing 540 points, or 1.6%. So again, you ask what happened, and it causes me to say Really? 3 things happened. Iran, oil, and a brutal lesson in what traders and algos do to companies that beat but don't raise their guidance, or they beat and raise, but then they offer cautious forward guidance. So here's a list of just some of the negatives yesterday that people focused on. Iran's parliament speaker resigned from the negotiating team midday. That caused oil to spike. WTI ripped higher. Trading towards as high as $97 before settling at $95.96. The Swine Notes up $1.50 or another 1.6% at $97.35. Eh, not gonna be helpful. Brent is up 1.8%, trading at $107. That's now up 24% in one week. Again, not helpful. IBM was down 8%. ServiceNow down 17%. Salesforce down 8%. All because, uh, uh, their forward guidance, not because of bad quarters, they had great quarters, but their guidance was cautious. Tesla, they beat on earnings per share, revenue was kind of in line, but the stock was down 3.5%. Why? Because Elon Musk, you know, announced a $25 billion plus CapEx guidance, much bigger than expected, right? And that caused investors to get nervous there. American Airlines posted a first quarter beat, great, but then they slashed and burned the full year guidance and reminded everyone, what $4 billion in extra fuel costs look like. The stock only lost 2.4%, which, by the way, in my mind should be viewed as a win considering what could have happened on the back of that story. Meta, they announced a 10% workforce reduction. That's 8,000 jobs. And then they also announced that they're not filling the 6,000 jobs that they were going to fill. That's 14,000 jobs that, you know, went away, all in the name of efficiency. And look, Zuckerberg said it himself in January, quote, we're starting to see projects that used to require big teams now accomplished by a single very talented person. Microsoft, that lost 4%. They offered their first ever voluntary buyout for senior directors, the first ever in 50 years, never done before. And Meta announcing that cut the same day wasn't really a coincidence. So you got to ask, what's going on here? Is this the AI Day of Reckoning that everyone's been warning about? Or is it just big tech finally cutting the fat from the pandemic hiring binge? Honestly, I think it's probably both. Those companies went on an absolute hiring frenzy, paying stupid money to hire quote-unquote talent in '20 and '21, and they've been working off that excess ever since. But don't kid yourself, when GitHub Copilot is generating nearly half the code for its users and AI is handling work that used to require entire teams of senior engineers, That does change the staffing math permanently. The overhiring gave them cover to start cutting, and now AI is giving them a reason to keep cutting. Then we have what's happening in the bond market. The 2-year rose 4 bps to end the day at 3.93%. The 10-year ticked up 2 bps, end the day 4.32%, and the 30-year ended the day at 4.91%. Now to be clear, the 2-year is up 4.5% This week, the 10-year is up 3%, the 30-year is up 1.1%, all this week. So what does that mean? Certainly means no Fed cuts are coming, and the market now knows this and is pricing it in. Is that enough? Because I can keep digging, I can give you more. I mean, I didn't even mention sticky inflation and rising material prices. Now, if you were in the camp that was expecting the volatility to subside, you better find a new camp. Not happening, at least not yet, which by the way does not mean it's a disaster. It just means you got to get used to the volatility because volatility actually creates opportunity. And so you have to have a plan. Okay, so now let's focus on the positives. S&P Manufacturing and Services PMI surprised to the upside, moving further into the expansion zone. That's great. Earlier in the week we had strong retail sales, we had pending home sales that surprised to the upside. And then yesterday, the Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index came in at a strong 10, suggesting that the heartland is strong. And the future expectations for the Kansas City Fed, that only amplified the strength, going from 16 to 18. That's very positive. But none of this matters when all they want to do is discuss the negatives, right? Okay, so now we got to move on to what happened last night. Intel after the bell reported, and guess what? They Crushed it. Now let's be clear, 2 years ago Intel was left for dead. Who wanted to own Intel? Ugh, they lost shit. They were losing share, they were bleeding cash, they were really written off by the street. And then, uh, Lip-Bu Tan came in, he tore it apart, and he told us trust the process. And last night he delivered. First quarter revenues of $13.6 billion versus $12.3 billion estimate. It was a big beat. Earnings per share, 29 cents. Versus zero. Data center and AI revenues up 22%, margins expected to be 34.5%, came in at 41%. That's an enormous beat, and this makes 6 straight quarters of beats. But here's what lit the fire— the forward guidance. And it's all about the huge demand for processors used in AI, and the stock exploded in the after-hours trading, printing all at all time highs. This morning Intel is up 28.5% or $19 at $85.80. And here's the kicker— remember the US government support tied to the domestic chip manufacturing, the investment of $11.1 billion, which was $2.2 billion in grants and $8.9 billion in equity? That's now worth $38 billion. Who had that in their bingo card in January? Now this morning, that report's having a ripple effect across the sector. Marvell's up 3.5%, AMD's up 7.8%, Arm's up 7%, and the semis ETF, that's up 28% in April alone. It's up 48% year to date. Does it get any better than that? But this morning, markets continue to struggle. Futures are mixed. Dow's down 150, but the S&P's are up 3. The NASDAQ's up 182, you can thank Intel, while the Russell is down 6. It's Friday. It was an exciting week, but next week is setting up to be just as exciting. We got a lot going on, so strap in. And Tuesday is key. Four of the world's largest companies report after the bell, the same day as we get the FOMC rate decision. Microsoft, Google, Meta, and Amazon all delivering results after the close, meaning traders have to process the Fed's rate decision before they get the earnings. Now, the shared narrative across all four is going to be the same thing: AI capital expenditure and whether or not it's producing uh, commence our revenue growth, period. Apple, they report next week too, but they report on Wednesday. Now, to be clear, the FOMC decision should be a non-event as far as I'm concerned. There's no cut, there's no raise. They're going to hold rates steady as usual. So everyone's going to listen to what JJ says, and I don't expect them to say anything that we don't already know. The Fed will remain data dependent, period, the end. At least until Kevin Walsh takes over, then maybe it changes. Now look, after that we're going to look for more reports: General Motors, Visa, Coke, UPS, Pfizer, Honeywell, Mastercard, Lilly, Merck, CAT, ExxonMobil, Chevron, Berk— Berkshire, and Amgen. And don't forget the March PCE, the price index, on Thursday. That is the Fed's favorite inflation gauge, and it is expected to be up, which should surprise absolutely no one. There's more economic, uh, more economic data next week, but we'll wait till next week because I could just give a whole list. Now, the S&P closed at 7108, down 30 points only after we tested as low as 7046. My sense is that anything tech is going to be fairly busy today, other sectors maybe not so much. Investors are going to be patient. Traders and algos are going to continue to take advantage of any anxiety. Trendline support is officially down at 6840, a a level we could test if earnings next week disappoint, which is always interesting because the definition of disappointment depends on who you are and what your time frame is. I for one am not expecting to be disappointed. Are you? You can call me at 561-931-0190. Let's talk about how Slatestone Wealth can help you navigate all of this and to help you reach the end goals. Whether it's you, for your children, for your grandchildren, for philanthropy, wherever it is, let us help you. Okay, so today we're going to have Sicilian linguine and clam sauce. This is in honor of my Sicilian grandmother, uh, and it's also very good. If you've never had it, you should try it. Now remember, Sicily is the largest island in the Mediterranean, located off the tip of the boot. Along with some of the smaller islands, makes up an autonomous region of Italy otherwise known as Regione Autonoma Siciliana. It's rich in history, culture, food, art, music, and architecture. Many of the recipes make use of fish. So today we're featuring the classic Sicilian-style linguine and clam sauce. It is a spectacular dish, not your usual. So try it, won't you? Okay, so for this you're gonna need 2 dozen clams plus a container of minced clams. You need olive oil, you need chorizo. That's the difference. You need garlic, shallots, white wine, clam juice, linguine, Parmigiano cheese for me, and breadcrumbs, breadcrumbs and butter. Now you're going to take half of the chorizo sausage. You're going to peel the skin off of it. You're going to dice it up. You're going to put it in a pot. You're going to dice up 2 shallots, put it in the pot. You're going to take 3 or 4 cloves of garlic and smash them and then rough chop them. Add them to the pot. Now you're going to add olive oil in the bottom of the pot, 2 or 3 times around. You're going to put— turn the heat up to medium and sauté all of that for 4 to 5 minutes. You don't want to burn it, so be careful. You want to keep stirring it. Now you're going to add in some white wine. I just poured in, it's like no more than 2 cups max, but again, it depends on how much you're making. Bring it to a boil, let the alcohol burn off. Now you're going to add in a bottle of the clam juice and 2 dozen of the clams that you've washed and cleaned, uh, and the container of minced clams. You're going to turn the heat to low. You're going to cover it. You're going to allow the clams to open, remembering to discard any clam that does not open. While this is simmering, take another frying pan, add a dollop of butter and some Italian seasoned breadcrumbs. Turn up the heat to medium-high. Turn on the— add the breadcrumbs and allow them to toast in the, in the butter, right? They'll get a little bit crunchy. You don't want to burn those. Once that's done, just set them aside. Now you're going to bring a pot of salted water to a rolling boil, add the linguine, and cook it until it's al dente, maybe 8 minutes or so, right? You don't want it mushy. Strain it, always reserving a, a mug full of the pasta water. Now put the pasta back in the pot, add back a little bit of the pasta water just to remoisten it. Now mix it with the clam sauce, add 2 handfuls of grated Parmigiano cheese, and mix it again. Serve each one of these in a warm bowl, adorning each portion with 3 or 4 of the clams that are still in the shell, along with a little bit of the clam sauce, half a ladle of the clam sauce. Top it off with a spoonful of the toasted breadcrumbs and serve it. Always have extra cheese on the table for the guests. You can serve this with a chilled white wine. I prefer for this dish the Pinot Grigio, Santa Margherita, uh, but you do what you want. Remember, you don't want to overwhelm this meal with the wine. You You want the meal to be the focus of the dinner table. In any event, it is Friday. The weekend's coming. I can't wait. The day is going to be beautiful. Looks a little bit cloudy right now, but it's supposed to be a beautiful day. Until Monday, take good care.
