Is the Stock Market on the Verge of a Massive Boom? Here's What You Need to Know! | Kenny Polcari

Well, good morning. Yes, it's me, I'm back, Kenny Polcari, and it is Friday, April 17th, 2026, the end of a long week. So here are the things that you need to know to get your day started. Well, the S&P and NASDAQ, they're hitting back-to-back record closes. Of course they are. Netflix last night after the bell, they beat and they're getting punished because of the guidance. Oil is down this morning, yields are up, gold is unchanged, and the VIX, well, we'll get to that. Today is the regional bank earnings. Next week we're going to get the meat and potatoes. And what are we having dinner tonight? We're going to have simple, the lollipop lamb chops and a simple salad. It's been a long week. I'm exhausted. Now this morning I'm going to be on Varney Co at 9 AM, um, and then I'm going to be joining Cheryl Kasson at 7 PM on Maria Bartiromo's Wall Street, all on Fox Business. Be sure to join us. Okay, so good morning. What an exciting 12 days it has been. Stocks marching higher as investors, traders, and algos continue to look through the geopolitical noise to focus on the US economic data and the start of earnings season. Yesterday at the closing bell, the Dow added 115 more points. The S&P was up 18. The NASDAQ added 86 points. The Russell ended up 6. The Transports exploded higher rising 865 points, or a whopping 4%. The equal-weighted S&P added 38 points while the Mag 7 gained, uh, 52 points. Now, the S&P and the NASDAQ pushing deeper into record territory, and that gives strength to the rest of the market. So of the 11 S&P sectors, we saw energy up 1.4%, communications up 1.25%, tech was up 1.1%, real estate up 0.9%, basic materials up 0.7%, consumer staples rose by 0.5%. Weakness— where did we see that? Well, industrials are off 0.5%, financials down 0.3%, consumer discretionary was down 0.5%, while healthcare lost 0.7%. So if you go further down the chain a little bit, you see it was mixed. Software continues to benefit, rising 1.6%, but that sector is still down 20% on the year. Hello! Uh, cybersecurity up 2.2%, semis up 1%, disruptive tech lost 2/10. Uh, quantum names continue to rise. Metals and miners up a quarter of a percent, while aerospace and defense gave up 1%. Homebuilders were down, retailers were up. But let's not confuse all this price action with conviction, because under the surface the story is more nuanced. And I'm not going to be a party pooper here, I'm just trying to keep it a little bit real. So we know what's driving the recent surge. It's been the same thing that's been driving this market all week and last week as well. It's called the hope trade. Headlines suggesting that progress on the geopolitical front, uh, continues to fuel this sentiment. And now we have a new development. We've got a 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, brokered with US involvement, taking effect as we speak, and designed to open the door for even broader negotiations, right? That combined with the ongoing discussions around a potential US-Iran framework is exactly what the market wants to hear. And quite honestly, it's really what we all want to hear because, right, everyone wants this to be over. And we saw that in the tape again yesterday. It was late-day buying into the close, confidence into the close, right? Investors leaning into the idea that maybe, just maybe, we're moving towards a more complete de-escalation. But here's the problem, and this is the part that keeps it real: while equities are leaning into the optimism, the The bond and the commodity markets, well, they're telling a little bit more of a cautious story. Yesterday, oil rose by $2, leaving it to end the day at $93.20. And all that does is keep the pressure on the inflation expectation. This morning, oil is trading down $3.80 or 4.1% at $90.83, right at 6 o'clock this morning. Now, there isn't anything new since the latest Israel-Lebanon or US-Iran news, But I should point out that the move today just brings us back to where we were last Thursday, and that explains the action in the stock, bold and gone, bond markets this morning. More on that in a minute. Now, yesterday the pressure showed up in yields. Bonds took a bit of a hit. The TLT lost 6/10, TLH lost half a percent, and that caused the 10-year to rise by 3 bps to end the day at 4.31. The 30-year rose by 4 bps to end the day at 4.93. Inching ever closer to that 5% key level. Now, some of this will— some people will describe this quiet but important move because it suggests the bond market is not fully buying the peace narrative just yet. They're telling you something important. Yields moved higher, not aggressively, but steadily, and that matters because higher yields mean tighter financial conditions. It raises the cost of capital, it pressures equity valuations, And it signals— and a signal that the bond market is not fully convinced. Now you can say that the bond market is acting like the only adult in the room. Less emotional, more cautious, maybe a little bit more skeptical than the equity traders are. Remember, again, it's the 4.5% on the 10-year or it's the 5% on the 30-year that are lines in the sand for some investors and for the markets. Now there's gold. Gold continues to trade in that classic push-pull dynamic that we discussed last week. On the one hand, you've got this geopolitical risk and uncertainty which should be supportive of the gold safety trade. On the other hand, you've got rising yields and a confused dollar which increases, uh, the opportunity cost of owning gold, right? So yesterday, uh, gold started and ended the day at $4,790, but during the day it traded as high as $4,838 and as low as $4,773. This morning, gold is down $1 at $4,789. It remains again stuck in that 4,700, 4,900 trading range and probably will be there until we get ultimate clarity. So what you're seeing is a market that wants to rally on fear but is being held in check by reality. Now if you look back at the VIX, it is retreated, right, suggesting that the fear is subsiding. So the market wants to rally on less fear, and that gives strength to this rally. Yesterday the VIX lost 1.3% to end the day below the trend line at 17.94. This morning it's up 1.1% at 18.06 and is now kissing that trend line again. It seems a bit confused, and while you'd say, ah, but look, we're down 48% off the high that we saw in early March and that puts us in the complacent zone— no, uh, no, not quite. We have to trade down below 15 to really be in the complacent zone. 18 is still at the lower end of the calm zone, uh, which is good. But it also means that we're not in the complacent zone yet. And all that does, it keeps the heat on medium-low. Now, so we've got this market making new highs while at the same time oil is elevated, yields are firm, and geopolitics, despite the headlines, remain unresolved. Because let's be clear, the 10-day ceasefire is just that— it's a pause, it's not a solution. Now, Trump has already said that if it doesn't work out watch out. But he also said if it does work out, he's going to go to Islamabad— Islamabad to celebrate. Now add in the economic data. Initial jobless claims come in at 207,000, better than expected, another sign that the labor market remains resilient. Continuing claims ticked a little bit higher but remain historically low. So while the consumer may be feeling some pressure, they're still employed, and that distinction matters. In addition, we saw a bit of weakness in industrial production capacity utilization. There's no economic data reports today, but next week— us— next week brings us a long list of data points: advanced retail sales, pending home sales, mortgage apps, Chicago Fed activity, S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, which is expected to be sitting right at the neutral line— not expansion, not contraction, but just neutral. Now, while we get all that out of the way, we have to discuss what's next, and arguably maybe the most important part of this story going forward for the next couple weeks, and that's earnings. Last night after the bell, we got Netflix, another name that everyone seems to be in. Just to, just to make it clear, I am not. It's a good miss for me. At first glance, it looked like a blowout— strong earnings, solid revenue, subscriber momentum, blah blah blah. But then came the guidance, and that's where the story changed. The outlook disappointed, and the stock got hit after hours. And that tells you everything that you need to know about the market right now. It's not about what they did, it's always about what they're going to do next. So watch the open closely. The stock this morning in the, in the pre-market is trading down $10.50 or 9.8% at $97. If it gaps down and stabilizes, that may be an opportunity. But if it gaps down and then keeps going then the guidance miss becomes the story. The chart suggests that it could go either way. The downside is the trend line at 91.60, just FYI. So I guess now you know what I think. Now, before we get to today's earnings, I have to say, and it's worth noting, that the big banks have already reported. And to be fair, they have not disappointed. They were actually very good. Think JPMorgan, Citibank, Wells Fargo, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, and Goldman Sachs. The money center banks, as they are known, came in strong. Earnings held up. Trading desks had a field day with all the volatility, and overall the tone was more constructive. But let's be honest, that was early in the game. This morning we're moving from the appetizers to the meat and potatoes. Today is a regional bank report card. We're going to hear from names like Truist Financial, Fifth Third Bank Corp, Regions Financial, Huntington Bankshares, and Citizens Financial Group. And that matters because these are not the money center banks. These are the banks that sit on Main Street. You go into any Main Street in town, you're going to see these names. They don't have trading desks to bail them out. They don't have global capital flows to mask any weakness. They live and die by deposits, loan growth, and credit quality. In other words, the big banks tell you how Wall Street's doing. The regional banks tell you how America is doing. And in this environment, oil above $90, rates at 4.3%, a Fed on hold at best, and a simmering Middle East, uh, uh, uh, will make a difference and will matter to what they say. Because they're not going to give us a read on whether the economy— because they're going to give us a read on whether the economy is holding steady or starting to crack. And get ready to buckle up because next week is when it gets real. We're heading straight into the heart of earnings season, right? The meat and potatoes with nearly 20% of the S&P set to report. And that's gonna give us a much clearer picture on whether the rally has real fundamental support or not. But more importantly, it's also a big tech week. We're gonna hear from Tesla, Google, and Amazon, right? In the tech space. But then we're gonna hear from Boeing, Intel, IBM, UnitedHealth, ExxonMobil, Chevron, Visa, Ally, and Ericsson. These represent industrials, semis, enterprise tech, healthcare, defensive growth, energy, payments, auto, consumer finance, and telecom infrastructure. And that's not even the whole list, right? And make no mistake, this is where the market is going to get tested, because these are the companies that have driven the rally, led the AI narrative, commanding premium valuations. So the question becomes simple: Can they deliver? Because here's the issue, and I think the expectation is they can, but here's the issue. Tech is expected to carry the load again, driving a disproportionate share of the earnings growth across the whole of the S&P. But at the same time, these companies are spending hundreds of billions of dollars on AI infrastructure, causing investors, uh, causing investors anxiousness. And they're starting to ask the obvious question again: when does the spending turn into real returns? Because that's the question every CEO is going to get. And the answers that they give will certainly move markets. This morning, European markets are all a bit higher. Italy taking the lead, up 7/10. Um, the UK is the only one in negative, Tory, down 2/10. The other ones are, you know, up about 3 or 4/10. US futures are higher, uh, as they're expecting more good news out of the Middle East, uh, and more good news, I guess, out of the earnings reports. Dow futures up 200, S&P's up 13, NASDAQ's up 30, and the Russell's up 11. The S&P closed last night at 7,041, up 18 points, another new high. It did though trade as high as 7,051. Recall yesterday I told you that the tech— from a technical perspective, trendline resistance is closer to 7,075, which is up 30 points from here, or just 0.4%. So what do you think is going to happen? Anyway, call me at 561-931-0190 and let's talk about how Slatestone Wealth can help you Navigate all of this to reach your end goals. Okay, look, it's Friday. It's been a hell of a week. You want something simple. That's all you want. You don't want to stress over it. You want to kick your shoes off and relax. So I'm going to give you the lollipop lamb chops with a simple salad. It's perfect. Simple. That's all you need. Takes all of 10 minutes. For this, you need your lollipop lamb chops. You need adobo, which is a Spanish spice you can buy in the spice aisle. You need salad of your choice. Romaine, arugula, Boston bibb. Mix it all together. Do one, do two, whatever you like. You need red— I like red onion, lemon, salt and pepper, oregano, and olive oil. That's it. A simple salad. Turn your oven on broil. Begin by laying out your lamb chops on a baking sheet that you've lined with, uh, with, uh, tin foil. Season the chop on both sides with the adobo. That's it, just the adobo. It's got everything in it that you need. And place them on the middle rack. Don't put them right up against the heat, but put them just the one below, right? Uh, and so while they're broiling, you're going to make your simple salad. Season it with salt and pepper, oregano, fresh lemon juice, and a squirt of olive oil. That's it. Enjoy this glass with a, with some light red wine or maybe even a rosé or really whatever you enjoy because it's about simplicity after this long week where you want to kick off your shoes, relax, and just get ready for the weekend because you never know, and next week. Until then, take good care.