In this June 3, 2026 market‑round‑up, host Kenny Polcari reviews the S&P 500 and Equal‑Weight S&P reaching fresh all‑time highs, noting that broader sector participation (7 of 11 S&P sectors up) suggests a strengthening rally despite a narrow 9‑day winning streak. He flags potential consolidation and highlights the limited breadth of the prior rally, where only 2 of 11 sectors rose. Geopolitical risk is examined: Iran’s missile launches and stalled nuclear talks, plus a Trump statement on Iran’s nuclear stance, are described as short‑term noise unlikely to reshape long‑term equity pricing. Polcari then dives into SpaceX’s upcoming IPO, explaining the unconventional pre‑roadshow pricing at $135 per share, the projected $75 billion raise, a 15 % greenshoe, and a 94× revenue valuation—framed as a “belief story” about Elon Musk’s ecosystem rather than earnings fundamentals. He updates bond yields (2‑yr 4.07 %, 10‑yr 4.48 %, 30‑yr 4.98 %), oil at $96.41, gold stuck in a triangle around $4,460, and a modestly higher VIX, interpreting these moves as reactions to geopolitical headlines. Recent economic data (JOLTS, factory orders, consumer spending) are summarized as indicating a cooling but not cracking economy, setting the stage for upcoming ADP, ISM Services, and Friday’s Non‑Farm Payrolls. Polcari offers disciplined investing advice, a complimentary portfolio review phone line, and a personal touch with a risotto‑with‑fava‑beans recipe, a weather note from Florida, and a plug for his appearance on Stuart Varney at 10 a.m. The overall tone blends market analysis, cautionary optimism, and lifestyle commentary.
Chapters
Well, good morning. Yes, it's me, Kenny Polcari, your host of the party, and today is Wednesday, June 3rd, 2026, and there's so much to talk about today. Uh, here are the things that you need to know to get your day started. Well, the S&P and the Equal Weight S&P are notching new highs together. That's a bit interesting. Iran— yes, no, is there a deal, is there no deal? We'll discuss that in a moment. And SpaceX Well, they supposedly priced the offering before the roadshow. Has Elon changed all the rules? Oil's up, bonds are down, yields are up, and gold— well, that remains stuck and confused. The eco data will be key over the next 3 days because we'll talk about the labor market. What we have to do tonight, we're going to have the risotto with fava beans. Delicious. Okay, so the bulls keep charging. Now, I'm not sure that's such a great idea after 9 straight up days, but It is what it is for now. Yesterday marked the 9th consecutive gain for the S&P as stocks once again pushed their way to fresh record highs on the Dow, on the Nasdaq, right? The S&P— 4 major indexes notched new all-time highs, including the Equal Weight S&P. And that's significant because it suggests that participation is improving. The Dow tacked on 229 points, S&P up 10, the Nasdaq added 8. The Russell added 26 points. The transports lost 60 points. The Eagle— oil was up. The Eagle 8 S&P added 30 points while the Mag 7 lagged, falling 360 points. But remember what we discussed yesterday. Monday's action gave us a reason to question the breadth of the advance. While the major averages were making records, only 2 of the 11 sectors finished higher on Monday, and most stocks actually lost ground. It was a rally on Monday primarily driven by tech and energy. And yesterday, what was a different story? The equal weight S&P joined the party. 7 of the 11 S&P sectors gained ground, suggesting that investors went looking for opportunities, opportunities beyond just the Mag 7. And you saw that in the weakness in the Mag 7 and the other mega-cap names. That's important because while 1 or 2 sectors can ignite the rally, They can't carry it forever, right? We've talked about that. Now, does that mean that it's all clear? No, not at all. After 9 straight up days and record highs across the board, some consolidation would be perfectly normal. And you might just see that today. US futures are lower, European markets are lower. Why? All because the headlines suggest that the negotiations with Iran are what? Huh, stall mode. The Iranians apparently are not giving up. The fighting continues, and in fact, Iran launched ballistic missiles at Kuwait and Bahrain trying to take out US military forces, but they were intercepted, so the damage was minimal. But what it does say is that Iran's just not giving up yet. They're going to hold Trump's feet to the fire. So I guess the idea that the negotiations with Iran are close to a deal are in fact not so close, and we've been discussing that thought as well. So don't be surprised if we see some of the most recent euphoria begin to fade, but again, Don't get sidelined. Remember, geopolitical headlines are great at creating short-term chaos and noise but don't typically price stocks in the long term. Now, there's also a breaking headline this morning at 6:45 AM. Trump says that Iran has agreed to not have nuclear weapons, but they can change their minds. Really? Futures remain negative even after that headline hit, so we'll talk about that and we'll see how the day progresses. But if you're a bull and you want to find a reason to remain bullish, yesterday's action was a step in the right direction because it suggests that the foundation underneath this rally is in fact continuing to strengthen, right? As we see the— it broadening up. We've been discussing that for a couple months now. Chips continue to rip higher. The semis up nearly 6% yesterday as investors are in a frenzy, taking Marvell up 33% or $71 after Jensen called it a future trillion-dollar company. HPE surges too as they raise their AI guidance, suggesting that, guess what, the chip boom won't quit. And there's news about SpaceX. This morning we learned that SpaceX is reporting looking to price 555.6 million shares at $135 per share, a transaction that would raise a staggering $75 billion and value Elon Musk's rocket and satellite company or empire at $1.75 trillion. Now think about this for just one second. The headline is suggesting that they are reportedly setting the price before the roadshow begins. That's not how this usually works. Normally a company gives investors the price range, say something like $100 to $150, just to assess demand across that range, right? And then, and then management hits the road. They, the institution kicks the tires, orders start to come in, and the final price gets determined through a big building process, a book building process where supply meets demand at certain prices, right? Now let's not be foolish, this conversation has been happening for months with the institutions. Of course it has. Goldman and Morgan, who are the lead bankers, are well aware of where the bodies mostly lie. But Elon appears to be doing what Elon does best. He isn't flirting, he's just gonna skip the foreplay and go right to the entree. He's telling investors this is a price take it or leave it, period, the end. Now, can that change? 100%. Will that be the price on opening IPO day on June 12th? Absolutely not. Remember, June 12th is when everyone else gets to throw their interest into the hat, and supply and demand will change. The roadshow was supposed to begin tomorrow, June 4th. The deal wasn't expected to price until June 11th, with trading beginning on the 12th under the ticker SPCX. Now, there's also a 15% greenshoe option attached to the deal, meaning that the final raise could end up being north of $75 billion if demand is strong enough. But be careful— while the story does appear to be credible, it remains provisional until ultimately the fat lady sings and the deal is priced. Now let's talk about valuation. At those numbers, investors are going to be paying 94 times revenue for a company that has lost $5 billion. 94 times. There's no PE ratio to discuss because there's no earnings, which tells you everything you need to know. This is not a valuation story. This is a belief story. A belief in Elon Musk, a belief in Starlink, a belief that satellite communications become a dominant global utility, a belief that artificial intelligence, data centers, autonomous systems, space infrastructure, and Musk's XAI ecosystem all converge into something far larger than what exists today. And investors appear willing to pay almost any price for that possibility. The deal is the poster child for the next phase of AI innovation and investor excitement. Between SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic, we're talking about nearly $4 trillion of potential market value that's going to be looking for a home. That's a lot of optimism. Now maybe it's justified, maybe it isn't, but one thing is certain: this is not about today's earnings, it's about tomorrow's dreams. And who doesn't love a good dream? Now bonds did very little yesterday, leaving yields essentially unchanged, but today's a different story. The headlines are creating a bit of angst, so bonds are now under pressure, and that's sending yields a little bit higher, uh, this morning. The 2-year is up 3 bps at 4.07, the 10-year is up 3 bps at 4.48, and the 30-year is up 3 bps at 4. 9.8%. And oil, you guessed it, it's not going down. And in fact, it's now trading at $96.41. That's up $10 since last week's lows at $86 when the thinking was, well, this is almost over. What a difference a day makes. It's not almost over, and it does not appear to be anywhere close to being over. So don't expect this quick decline in oil prices. Oil remains now in this $90, $105 trading range. And if that is true, do not expect to see CPI, PPI, the PCE to move lower at all. And if that's true, there's no rate cut for you. Now gold, it remains stuck in the triangle, down $24 this morning at $4,460. Remember, support's down at $4,420 and resistance at $4,630, and it's converging like a triangle. The VIX, remember what I said, it becomes a bit— I always become a bit concerned when it suggests complete and utter complacency, and that's exactly what it has been suggesting. This morning it's a bit higher, and if the headlines do, do not suddenly change, I suspect we'll continue to see it move higher over the coming days. And if that happens, expect stocks to pull back, which they should, and that would be okay. It will shake the branches a little bit, and let's see who falls out. Can you say the Momo guys? Now, yesterday's eco data reinforced the narrative that has been driving this market higher. The economy is cooling, but it's not cracking. The JOLTS showed employers are still looking for workers. Factory orders suggest manufacturing remains sluggish but stable, and consumers continue to spend despite higher borrowing costs. In other words, the data does not point to a recession. It points to a slower growth environment that still supports corporate earnings and gives the Fed room to remain neutral, not hawkish and not dovish. For the bulls, that's about as good as it gets. Now, the real test comes today and later on this week. We're gonna get ADP, ISM Services, which is a key, uh, eco data point, and Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls report. If these reports confirm a gradual cooling trend without a sharp deterioration in employment, the market is likely to view that as another green light. If it does not, then there will be a repricing. European markets, well, they're mostly lower on the geopolitical headlines. Germany's down 0.9%, but Spain is up 0.5%. The other market centers are all negative, down about 0.4%. US futures now are mixed. Dow futures down 190, S&P's down 10, the NASDAQ is up 45, while the Russell is down 16. Now the S&P closed at 7,609, up 10 points, putting it in another new century. The Dow, S&P, NASDAQ, and Equal Weight are all kissing the overbought lines on the relative strength scale. And I know I keep saying this and stocks continue to move higher. Well, until they don't. And all that means is don't be emotional. Make smart, disciplined decisions with your money. Now, you can always give me a call, 561-931-0190, to discuss your goals and your timeline. Let's assess the risk in your portfolio and the tolerance for volatility. I'm always happy to give you a complimentary portfolio review and look at your risk assessment. Okay, so what do we have for dinner tonight? We're gonna have risotto with fresh fava beans and pancetta. Risotto's always an easy meal and it's good for those who are veg— this one's very good for those who are vegetarians or need to be gluten-free. This one celebrates fresh fava beans enhanced with pancetta. Truly, truly a great dish. Now for this you need butter, olive oil, finely chopped onion, finely chopped pancetta, arborio rice, white wine, 6 cups of vegetable broth. You can use chicken broth, either or. You need fresh shelled fava beans and chopped parsley, and finally the grated Pecorino Romano cheese. Now begin by heating the butter and olive oil in a heavy saucepan, right? Add the onions, cook them until they're translucent, then add the pancetta, sauté that for 3 or 4 minutes. Now add in the rice and stir it until it's all coated in the butter and and juices, right? Then once it's coated, you're going to add the wine. You're going to stir that continually over medium heat until the wine is absorbed, uh, is absorbed, right? Once it's absorbed, you're going to add in 1 ladle of the hot broth, 1 at a time, stirring consistently as you, as you add it until it's absorbed, repeating adding the broth until, uh, and stir it constantly until it's all done. After about 10 minutes, you're going to add in the fresh fava beans, continue adding the broth, continue stirring Right? You want the rice to be firm to the bite. Not hard, not soft, just firm. When that happens, remove it from the heat, add a dollop of butter and the Pecorino Romano cheese. A handful or two is never bad. It's never a bad thing. Serve it in warm bowls to your guests and enjoy your favorite. In this case, I would drink white wine. And you know my favorite is the Pinot Grigio Santa Margherita. Look, Uh, it's a cloudy day outside today. There's clouds everywhere and it looks like it's going to rain most of the day. It's not raining now, but it's going to rain probably— what it looks like— most of the day. But it is summertime here now in Florida, and that typically is kind of what happens every day. In the meantime, I will be on Stuart Varney at 10 o'clock this morning, so make sure to tune in. Until tomorrow, take good care.
