In this June 9, 2026 daily market commentary, Kenny Polcari recaps the recent market turbulence driven by a two‑pronged shock: a sharp pull‑back in the stretched AI/semiconductor trade and unexpectedly strong U.S. economic data. He details how Broadcom’s muted AI‑chip outlook sparked a sector‑wide sell‑off that hit NVIDIA, Micron, and other chip makers, wiping out roughly $1 trillion in market value. The same day, a robust Non‑Farm Payroll report (172,000 jobs added) pushed bond yields higher (2‑year 4.17%, 10‑year 4.55%, 30‑year 4.02%) and revived expectations of a Fed rate hike before year‑end, pressuring high‑multiple tech stocks. Polcari walks through the day’s index moves, sector breadth, and the contrast between growth and value trades, noting modest rebounds in several semiconductor names and mixed performance across other sectors. He then covers commodity dynamics—oil falling on improving U.S.–Iran talks, gold breaking a long‑term trend line, and the VIX retreating from a spike. Upcoming inflation releases (May CPI and PPI) are highlighted as the next market catalyst. The analyst also announces that OpenAI has filed confidentially for an IPO, completing an “AI trilogy” with SpaceX and Anthropic, and speculates on capital allocation impacts. He offers a brief portfolio risk reminder and invites listeners to call for personalized advice. The segment closes with a step‑by‑step recipe for breaded pork cutlets bathed in white wine, presented as a simple, family‑friendly dinner.
Chapters
Well, good morning. Yes, it's me, Kenny Polcari, your host of the party. And today is Tuesday, June 9th, 2026. And I'm back after being out for a couple of days as I went to a wedding. But now here are the things you need to know to get your day started. Well, markets attempted to recover from apparently Friday's beatdown. Bonds are lower while yields continue to trade in the danger zone. Oil is lower on advancing talks with Iran. Gold breaks the trend line that we've been talking about for weeks. The CPI and the PPI are both out later this week, and that'll give us the latest read on inflation. OpenAI, well, they join the trilogy as they file confidentially to go public. And what do we have for dinner tonight? We're gonna have the pork cutlets. Well, like I said, good morning, and yes, I am back. I was away at a wedding, so I missed the action on Thursday and Friday. So here we go, let's just kind of talk about that so we can lead into what happened yesterday. So Let's talk about, uh, what happened at the end of the week because Friday's sell-off didn't come out of nowhere. It was the collision of not one but two powerful forces that had been building for weeks, forces that we had been discussing: the stretched technology trade and the ongoing stronger-than-expected economic data. It ended up being a one-two punch that caught some off guard. Last week, markets were a bit edgy. The Iran and US negotiations were in a stalemate. Oil was on the rise. Bonds were getting slammed. Yields were rising. Uh, and the NFP report on Friday surprised nearly everybody. Every index got sold on Friday. The NASDAQ plunged by 4.2%. The S&P fell by 2.6%, and the list goes on. Now, let's be clear though about what happened. The sell-off was all about technology, more specifically the semis. The AI trade slammed right into the wall. The warning signs, though, had actually appeared earlier. They appeared on Thursday for sure when Broadcom disappointed investors by failing to raise its AI chip outlook despite reporting solid results. The stock sold off and that weakness quickly spread across Guess what? The entire semiconductor sector. And then Friday came. NVIDIA got hit, Broadcom got hit more, Micron got obliterated, falling 13%. And the selling became, as it does, indiscriminate. All the Momo guys running for the door at the same time. And you know what happens when that happens? The bottom falls out. And this is the problem with concentration, because when a handful of names carry the market higher, those same names become vulnerable when the algos throw a fit and decide to go into sell mode all at the same time. But that was only half the story. The second punch came from the economic data, right? Friday's Nonfarm Payroll report showed employers added 172,000 new jobs in May, nearly double the expectation. Bonds declined on that headline and yields exploded. The 2-year kissed 4.17%, the 10-year kissed 4.55%, and the 30-year kissed 4.02% as the Street began reassessing the path of interest rates. Fed fund futures are now pricing in a rate hike before the end of 2026. I mean, think about it. A stronger economy means inflation pressures remain sticky. Sticky inflation means the Fed remains boxed into a corner. And that means that interest rates stay higher for longer, at least new, or at least neutral where they are. And that is exactly the plotline that creates problems for a market trading at elevated multiples. Now look, the S&P is now trading at 25 times expected 2026 earnings, right? Fairly rich. Uh, in other words though, that makes now Kevin Warsh's job a bit harder. Good news for the economy became bad news for bonds, and higher yields became bad news for stretched tech stocks. And suddenly the AI trade that looked unstoppable all year suddenly becomes vulnerable. The selling took nearly $1 trillion in market value out of that tech AI complex. The bulls were bruised and the bears were taking a victory lap, proclaiming the AI trade is over and the bubble has burst. Uh, except maybe not so much. Yesterday, the dip buyers began to sift through the rubble. MU added 10%. The Sox was up nearly 6%. Western Digital up 3%. Uh, Seagate Technologies up 3.5%. NVIDIA up 1.7%. AMD up 5%. Intel up 11%. Broadcom up 2.8%, right? It's funny, the algos were buying the same stocks that they were throwing out nearly 48 hours ago. And as usual, all the analysts came out to take advantage of the opportunity. Morgan Stanley saying it was inevitable. Citigroup raised their year-end target while UBS continues to tell investors not to underestimate the strength of tech, while at the same time telling investors not to let a hawkish Fed get in the way. Remember, earnings were better— they've been better, uh, than expected. Economic growth remains robust. CapEx spending is strong. Consumers are spending. Compute demand is surging. I mean, look at Intel yesterday. It surged 10% on the back of a headline that said Apple was set to purchase more than 3 million TPU chips by 2028. Now, a TPU, a tensor processing unit, is an application-specific integrated circuit, right? Designed specifically for AI workloads that excel at the core mathematical operations that allow AI to learn and predict. They are not the same as CPUs and GPUs. They are in addition to. At the end of the day, the Dow lost 80 points yesterday. The S&P added 22. The Nasdaq rose by 220. The Russell added 22 points. The transports rose by 220 points. The equal-weight S&P lost 6 points while the Mag 7 gave back 18. Only 3 of the 11 sectors advanced. Tech was up 2%, consumer discretionary up a half, and energy was up 1.1%. On the back of its decline, on the back of oil's decline. The other 8 sectors— utility lost 1.9%, and real estate lost 1.5%, basic materials lost 1.3%, financials lost 0.6%, communications lost 0.5%, consumer staples lost 0.4%, industrials down 0.3%, while healthcare was down 0.25%. Below that, it was kind of a mixed bag, right? Homebuilders lost 0.2%, airlines lost nearly 1%, disruptive tech added nearly 2%, Retail was up 1.5%. The value trade lost 2/10 while the growth trade added 7/10. Emerging markets continue to outperform, gaining 1.8%, now up 20% year-to-date. And the quantum trades were up between 4% and 10%, uh, in the group. Bonds got sold again. The TLT and TLH down 0.5% and 3% respectively. Yields held steady, uh, yields are holding steady at 4.14%, 4.55%, and 5.03% for the 2s, 10s, and 30-year issues. Oil, which has been a big driver of sentiment and market action, was down yesterday and is down again this morning, trading at $89.45. It is now down $7 from last week's high of $96.50. The move, a direct result of the ongoing negotiations between US and Iran, right? We're now below the short-term trend line, and we're going to look to test the May lows of $86.35. Should the news continue to be somewhat positive, expect oil to fall a bit further, but it won't collapse until there is a signed deal, the strait is open, and the blockade is over. Now, gold— what did I tell you? It was stuck in that triangle right between the rising long-term trend line and the declining short-term trend line, and it finally made a decision. It broke the long-term support at $4,437 last week to trade as low as $4,268. Now this morning it's trading at $4,335 as it tries to assess what's next. Remember, higher rates and a stronger dollar are negatives for gold, and the next level of support should be at around $4,100, uh, while the trend line now at $4,437 becomes resistance. So we're in this new trading range. The VIX, which exploded higher, up 35% on Friday's, uh, sell-off as investors rushed to buy protection, has already retreated as things— as the anxiety begins to fade. It closed last night at 18.12, and with futures pointing higher this morning and global markets rallying, I'd expect it to end the day a bit lower. Remember, anything below 20 generally suggests a level of investor complacency. But remember what I said 2 weeks ago when the VIX was trading in the 15s? I said be careful because when investors become too comfortable is when they're gonna get smacked. Well, Friday they got smacked. Today's eco data includes existing home sales month over month, and they are expected to be up 1.1%. Tomorrow we're going to get the May CPI, uh, and while the month over month numbers are expected to be a tiny bit lower, the year over year numbers are expected to be a bit higher. The issue will be, as usual, if the, uh, if the actual numbers are not what the market expects. Now I'm expecting them to be stronger across the board, right? But let's see what happens. And Thursday, well, that's going to bring us to May PPI, which is the Producer Price Index. And that's the same story— month over month expected to be down, year over year expected to be up. But I suspect both are going to be higher than the expectations. Now If I'm right and both the CPI and PPI come in hotter than expected, then Friday's sell-off suddenly makes a little bit more sense, right? Now, European markets are mostly all higher this morning. Italy in the lead, up 2%. Spain up 1.1%. Euro Stoxx is up 9/10. France is up 9/10. Germany's up 7/10. The UK is the only one not joining in. They're down 2/10 of a percent. US futures this morning are all strong. The Dow up 120. The S&P's up 30 points. The NASDAQ up 205. And the Russell is up 25 points. Now, when I left on Thursday morning, the S&P was at 7,609. Last night it closed at 7,405. Now recall what I said on Wednesday: the Dow, the S&P, the Nasdaq, and Equal Weight were all kissing the overbought line. And all that means is proceed with caution. Do not get FOMO-ized. Stocks are expensive at the moment. Now, none of you should be surprised at what happened next. So now, where are we now? Last Thursday, the market was overbought, overconfident, and trading like risk no longer mattered. Today, it's neither overbought nor is it oversold. The froth— well, a little bit of that has been taken out. The weak hands think the Momo guys have been shaken. Now, the market's about to get another test this week with the CPI and the PPI. So As usual, stay alert. One more side note, the AI trilogy is now complete. Sam Altman jumps in and files confidentially to go public, now joining SpaceX, which goes public this Friday, uh, and Anthropic sometime in the fall. So now we're gonna see how investors react and how much of these trillion-dollar babies the market can really absorb. I would expect you're gonna see more money come out of Bitcoin to help fund these dreams. You can give me a call at 561-931-0190 to discuss your goals and the timeline. Let's assess the risk of your portfolio and your tolerance for volatility. Okay, now what do we have for dinner? We're gonna have the breaded pork chops bathed in white wine. Now they're bathed, they're not drowned, they're just bathed. It's also an easy dish to make and one that's gonna become nearly a family favorite. Now for this, you're gonna need the boneless pork cutlets, you're gonna need eggs, seasoned breadcrumbs, flour, butter, both grated Parmigiano and Pecorino Romano cheese, white wine, and some chicken stock. Preheat the oven to 350 degrees so it's nice and hot when you need it. Begin by rinsing and patting dry the pork cutlets, set them aside. Now in one bowl, beat 5 eggs, set that aside. In a large bowl, add the breadcrumbs, season them with salt and pepper, onion powder, garlic powder, and a handful of both the cheeses, the Pecorino and the Parmigiano. Mix it well. Then you're going to set up the production line. First the cutlets, then the bowl of flour, then the eggs, and then the breadcrumbs, right? You're going to do it like you usually do. Dredge your cutlets in the flour, dip them in the eggs, and then, uh, put them in the breadcrumbs, making sure that you— the breadcrumbs are on all sides, and right, uh, you've coated them well. Set them aside. Repeat it until you've done all the cutlets. Now, melt a half a stick of butter and a splash of oil in a large nonstick frying pan. When it's nice and hot, sear the cutlets on both sides until the breadcrumbs form like a crust. Maybe 4 minutes or so, depends on the thickness. Then put them in a Pyrex glass baking dish. Now, go back to the sauté pan, add some white wine to the pan to deglaze it. Now add in chicken stock, enough that when you add it to the baking dish, the cutlets are bathing. Do not drown them in the liquid. Now, cover the dish with tin foil really tight, put them in the oven for 30 minutes or so. After that, remove them and serve them with a side of whatever you want. Roasted cauliflower and a large mixed green salad with sliced tomatoes, red onions, cucumbers. You know that, you know the deal. Dress it in a red wine vinaigrette. It's simple, it's easy, and trust me, it will become a family favorite. Now, until tomorrow, take good care.
