In this special edition of his Morning Stock commentary, Kenny Polcari outlines SpaceX’s upcoming Nasdaq IPO, positioning it as the largest public offering ever. He details the filing: ticker SPCX, a target raise of $75 billion at a $1.75 trillion valuation, with a roadshow starting June 4, pricing June 11 and first trade June 12, surpassing Saudi Aramco’s record. Polcari emphasizes that SpaceX is no longer just a rocket company; its cash‑generating engine is Starlink, which now has over 10 million subscribers and contributes roughly $11 billion of the projected $18.6 billion 2025 revenue. He notes that AI (via XAI, which controls X, formerly Twitter) now consumes more capital than rockets and connectivity combined, signalling Elon Musk’s focus on AI, compute, and data movement. The company posted $18.6 billion in revenue but a $5 billion loss, yet the valuation is driven by a $28.5 trillion total addressable market for orbital logistics, compute, and global digital infrastructure. Polcari explains the dual‑class share structure (Class A = 1 vote, Class B = 10 votes) that will keep Musk in overwhelming control, framing investors as passengers on his rocket. He presents a bullish case (Starlink as global infrastructure, Starship reshaping orbital economics) and a bearish case (heavy AI capital burn, declining ARPU, execution risk). He also highlights SpaceX’s 18,000 BTC holdings worth about $1.5 billion. Finally, he urges a long‑term, conviction‑based investment horizon, warning that the “Elon premium” is distinct from typical AI or war‑premium market dynamics.
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Well, good afternoon. Here's a special edition of my Morning Stock. This is a special SpaceX edition on Thursday, May 21st, 2026, and here are the things that you need to know before you jump into this unbelievable opportunity. Look, last night while everyone was still obsessing over Jensen Huang and dissecting every word about NVIDIA and trying to decide whether or not this another monster quarter was enough to justify its current valuation, Elon Musk was quietly filing the paperwork. And just like that, the largest IPO in history, in the history of financial markets, has become real. It's not rumored anymore. It's not sources familiar with the matter say. It's not speculation. It is real. The S-1 is public, the ticker is set, and the clock is ticking. SpaceX is targeting to raise $75 billion with a valuation of $1.75 trillion under the symbol SPCX on NASDAQ. Think about that for a second. When Saudi Aramco went public, they raised $29.4 billion and held the record of the largest IPO. SpaceX is attempting to raise more than double that amount. It's not just the biggest IPO of 2026. This will become the biggest IPO in the history of financial markets. So mark these dates. The roadshow starts on June 4th. The pricing is expected on June 11th, and the first trade will happen on June 12th. And remember how this works. After the pricing on June 11th, the institutional money the next day will determine the opening equilibrium price. Retail gets access after the heavy lifting is done. That doesn't mean you don't participate. It just means understand which side of the trade you're on before you jump in. Now let's talk about what it actually is, because if you still think this is just a rocket company, you're already behind the 8-ball. The company now includes XAI. XAI controls X, formerly Twitter. So the same company landing rockets on autonomous barges in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean also owns one of the largest social media distribution platforms on the planet. We are living in unusual times for sure, but make no mistake, the engine under the hood is Starlink. More than 10 million subscribers and roughly $11 billion of the company's $18.6 billion in '25 revenue. That's the business throwing off cash. Everything else, that's the vision, and the vision costs money. SpaceX spent approximately $20.7 billion in CapEx last year, and what jumped out at me was that the AI consumed more capital than both space and connectivity combined. That should tell you exactly where Elon thinks the future is. This is no longer simply about rockets at all. It's becoming an infrastructure story. Communications, AI, compute, data movement, and platforms. Now here's the part that, uh, should make you stop and think just a little bit. The company generated $18.6 billion in revenue and they lost $5 billion, yet it wants investors to assign a value of $1.75 trillion. So understand what that means. You're not buying SpaceX for what it is, you're buying SpaceX for what it could become, and there's a big difference. The valuation is not about current earnings power, It's entirely about future dominance. And don't miss the governance structure because the Class A shares, what the public gets to buy, carries 1 vote. The Class B shares, largely controlled by Elon, carries 10 votes. Following the IPO, Musk is expected to retain overwhelming control. The translation? You are a passenger on this rocket ship and he's flying it. If that excites you, great. If that makes you uncomfortable, understand that before you go write the check, right? Now the bull case for this is obvious. Starlink could become this global digital infrastructure. Starship could redefine economics, orbital logistics, orbital compute, even orbital data centers. Their own total addressable market, their TAM estimate, is $28.5 trillion, which they describe as the largest actionable market opportunity in human history. Is it ambitious? Absolutely. Is it crazy? Maybe. But then again, people once laughed at reusable rockets, right? Now, the bear case, that matters as well. Maybe not so much, but you have to consider it. XAI is reportedly consuming enormous amounts of capital. Starlink's revenue per user has declined as subscriber growth has accelerated. More customers, less revenue. Perhaps importantly, the valuation already assumes a near-perfect execution. And you know what I think about perfection being priced in? We just watched it happen with Nvidia, right? Another spectacular quarter, another beat, another raise, all the good stuff, and the stock barely moved. That's not failure, that's expectations becoming impossible to exceed. Do I think that'll happen with XAI, with SpaceX? Not so sure. One last thing buried in the filing that made me, uh, that made me happy was SpaceX owns more than, uh, 18,000 Bitcoins purchased at an average cost of $35,000. Current prices, that equates to about $1.5 billion. Not so bad. Here's the message: this is not a trade. This is not something you buy on Thursday and you sell it on Friday. This is a conviction story measured in years, not quarters. If you believe in satellite infrastructure, AI communications, and orbital economics, and one man's relentless belief that humanity eventually becomes multi-planetary then June 12th deserves a circle on your calendar. Just know what you own, because the war premium can kind of oil, the AI premium can compress, but the Elon premium, that's a completely different conversation. So ready? Strap in because we're about to take off.
