Q&A Mentor Call February 2022

Foreign. Hello, everyone. I'm getting ready to go live with our Q and a call for February 2022. So just grab yourself a cup of coffee, grab your lunch, and let's kick this off. Hello, everyone, it is February 2022 and welcome, welcome, welcome. Wow, what a month. And there's been so many things going on. What a year. And if you missed the January catch up, well, go back and watch that recording because, you know, we really looked at the year ahead and a few predictions and as you can expect, there are many more predictions from many more experts. And I've tried to curate that for you for this month. But I did send out a bit of a challenge. But first and foremost, please let me know, can you hear me and can you see me and tell me where you are? I know that we usually have 10, 20, 30 people join this live and then hundreds of people watch it in replay. As you know, I have been doing this with John for over nine years, doing our monthly Q, Q and A. And we have brought so much content and information to the table to help you in your property success. And that continues today. So I put a bit of a challenge out there today and said, what would you like to discuss? And are there any areas that you're interested in? So, you know, make sure you put your notes in chat. In the link at the top of this video, there is something you can click so I can see your name as it comes up so I know who I'm talking to. Otherwise I'm going to have to keep jumping over to my phone and seeing if there's any comments there. But yeah, I'd really like to be able to help you if you have some questions on specific suburbs or properties, deal reviews that we can share with everyone so everyone can benefit. So February has been, oh, gosh, it's been such a quick month and there's been so many things that have gone on. I have had the pleasure of running a couple of strategy and vision calls for some of my new mentoring clients and some of my other clients. And look, it's been a real revelation in, you know, where people's headspaces are when it comes to property. There's a lot of fear, there's worry. You know, there's a lot of economic indicators that are being put out in the media that are showing, you know, that there's a downside to come. Depending on who you speak to, it could be 12 months out or you could be five years out. And, you know, I think it's really important that we Just look at the information. And we're not, you know, all fairy dust and rainbows. We have to be really realistic to see, you know, what is going on out there and what the real market is doing. And so I think it's important that we look at what the commentators are saying. Also look at where the commentators are coming from because a lot of people who want you to buy, buy, buy are going to be giving you positive information and they may be buyer's agents who, who would like to act for you. And there's potentially a lot of banks out there that are pushing up their interest rates and there's some question around your fixed rates and they might be predicting that rates are going to. Or house prices are going to go down and rates are going to go up because I want you to fix in that loan which is the equivalent to four or five rate increases. Now, bear in mind, we have not had a rate increase in over 10 years. So we have been in an amazing situation. But that's going to change at some stage in the future, depending on who you speak to, who knows. So we have got, yeah, we've got some people who are putting posts up there in the, in the Facebook group, which is fantastic to see. And hey, I really encourage you to go and check out the Facebook group because, you know, there is so much information in there and there's so many people doing so many interesting things at the moment. And I think it's really important that we're there to support each other. People are putting up floor plans with questions. There's a call out for people looking for structural engineers, for accountants, for bathroom renovation people. So there's so many things out there. So I've got a few comments here. Let me just pull them up on screen. I have got, ooh, we've got Gabriel from Sydney who would like me to have a look at St. Peter's so let's put that on the list. And we've got Stanmore. So let's have a chat about that. Right next door to me says Marion. So I think she might be near Stanmore. So let's have a look at some of these suburbs. So one of the things that I guess I can bring to the table when I do strategy sessions or I try to give a little bit more clarity on deal reviews is try to give people the tools and resources so that they can actually do that this for themselves. And there's so many different tools out there. And you know, I'm always discovering new ways to find out information. But I Usually start at the top and the top is the suburb selector software. So let me just put that straight up into the stream and let's have a look at that. Now I'm just going to make myself little. Oh, how about I just turn off my video so we can have a look at it completely. So if you're in the ultimate guide to renovation module one and I'm sorry two and three cover location masterclass. If you're in the location masterclass, this is where you go to have a look at the suburb selector software and just get some information about what is actually happening out there in the market. Now as you all know, the suburbs lecture software just because I know that when I look at the pain and gain reports all the information that always comes up is that houses are better than units and capital cities are better than regional. Now you may question that over the last year and the major regionals are areas that have growth as well because of, of the flow on effect from the cities. Now you know, so I've essentially covered in the suburb selector software all the data of the major regionals and the capital cities. Now there are other regional areas out there but what I have found is that these areas don't usually have enough sale data for me to use it as predictive analysis of what is going to come. No one expected what's it that movie, Monty Python. No one expects the Spanish Inquisition. No one expected the rise of the regionals. Information's coming out right now just indicate that that market is coming off. But you know, it's really interesting to have a look at some of these areas and see what's happening. So let's pull up some of the data. Now you can go all the way up to well, what is the median house price in Stanmore? Who knows, let's put in $3 million. So we're happy to go like a long way up. Gosh, is that 3 or 30? 1, 2. $3 million. We're happy to go to 90% below that and hey, let's throw 20% above Stanmore. Not too sure where you are. So let's make this the widest, widest search possible. Now just let me know if everyone can see this and it's coming through. Okay, I just want to make sure that we're getting that data and you're seeing where this data is coming from. So essentially I've now got every property from $3.6 million down in Sydney within 50Ks. And I'm assuming that Stanmore will be in this, this precinct. So let's check that out and if not I could go into the data behind the data to have a look. So 2.67. So lucky we went all the way up to 3 million. Let's just check out what is happening in Stanmore. Now what I'll do is I'll grab the data from different sources so you can see how this information works. So what I'm trying to do here is I'm trying to get the latest information about Stanmore. Now Stanmore is 4.9Ks from the CBD. The other suburbs around it that are a bit further out are a little bit more expensive, a little less expensive. So phenomenal growth. Let's just dive straight in and find out the information. This just gives me the high level information that I'm always after to find out what's next and what kind of information I have to find. So I'm just going to jump in here, get an idea of what's happening in this suburb. So as you can see this data from the top, I've essentially pulled this from census. So I'm looking at a three bedroom flat as the typical property in this area. The train is the, there's a train station nearby. There's a large amount of students there, 30%. When I start saying 15 to 20% I start thinking there's a table for university in my 30% is huge. Mum, dad with kids are outnumbered by mum dad without kids. Now here's the big disclaimer here guys. This is 2016 data from Census. We are eagerly awaiting more information. 154 properties sold a year. This is great. You're not going to waste your time in there now we're talking about houses here. So let's have a look. 1300 units, 1300 semis, 600 houses. So when I'm looking at 2.67 million house price, here's one of the things that I'm thinking about. I'm thinking about, gee, there's a large amount of semis and I know that the data people don't always get it right which means that sometimes the price points with that many semis compared to houses means that 2.67, you're out there trying to buy a house and you're like what the, everything's 3.5 and that's because the semis or townhouses are actually bringing down that median price. So just be aware, this is how you need to read this data. So when you're seeing, you know, I can afford this property or this suburb and you can't it may be that you're having a skew of data. So I start with that looking at that average weekly income. It's just an indicative information. It gives me an indication of the the socioeconomic area. Less than $900 a week. We're kind of looking at Logan in Queensland public housing, very small number 1.3%. I don't need to be aware to monitor in that suburb. Where to look at days on market 46 percentage of renters 46%. Now this is fantastic, right? So I'm always looking around 30% of renters being in an area because I want to make sure that there's actually a market for what I have. I don't want to be an outlier and having a very low amount of ren renters in the area. So when I put my property on the market, it gets snappled up. But then again there may be not people who want to rent there. I'm minimizing my risk vacancy rate 2.8%. Now when we get to 3%, what happens is we start seeing that there's more people putting their properties on the market to rent than people looking to rent. Now this has been up as high as 5%. And in the rental market, where we now know this area has the most predominant type of properties, it has been really high. So the rental market and do my kind of headwinds, tailwinds of the market a little later. But the rental market has been really difficult and we've had the biggest differential between houses and units ever in the price point. So this kind of gives me an idea of what's happening in the market now at 1.8% yield, that kind of hurts, right? We're looking at a nearly a $3 million property. And if you're like most people, you're going to have a loan on that and your weekly rents about 900 bucks, 1.8. That's like lower than inflation. Now some of the tools that I might use let me do suburb trends first. So I jump into suburb trends. I'm going to jump over here. I can see that Kent, who has suburb Trends has just started selling the Excel spreadsheet, which is always really great. So I think we're in Stanmore, aren't we in New South Wales? So the reason I like this is it gives me an idea of what's happening in the market. I have this like pretty picture of it now. One of the things I personally like that I'll get to in a moment that is added is this section on the sensors Ages with me here. So I'm going to turn off my video, put on my glasses so you can see most of the screen. So it gives me an idea. Now here's the thing, right? I update the suburbs, like to Software on the 21st of every month with SQM data, SQM research data. Now you could get data from RP data, you could get data from scraping the website. You could get data from just domain or domain real estate. Different people get different data. The thing is, just recognize where you're getting the data from. Note it down. Check this out, though. Median house price 1.8. Now it's 2.2. Prices are going up units or actually higher a year ago, which is interesting to see. And we've got some information there on rents. So, you know, there's a nice little, you know, what's happening here, blah, blah, blah. Summary of what's happening as well that you might want to have a look at. House inventory. Now I'm really attracted. I'm assuming Gabrielle, was it Gabriel that was after Stanmore. Let me just check that out. Who was after Stanmore? Comments are gone. Oh, they disappear. Okay. Can you move your face? It's blocking our video. Oh, sorry. Onto it, Mark. All right, so the reason I like this as a measure, inventory tells me at 1.1 now the way that Kent has developed this inventory measure is he says that it's less than five. It means that there's five months of inventory of selling houses that if they. All the houses on the market at the moment were. And there was no new markets properties coming on, it would take five months to sell all of that data or all of those products. So if it's going to one, we're talking about the number of listings. That is, we've got listings here of 50. They're selling about 50amonth. This is what this is saying, which is insane, right? So there's 50 listings and sales are a bit different, to be honest. But. So what this is saying is that it's not. There is a really tightness on the market. Now I'm really liking his inventory numbers. They used to show three six 12 month predictions. I'm assuming now that that's behind the paywall. I think it's 15 bucks a month to get the spreadsheet, which I will get and have a look at. But this is telling me that the market's actually coming down. So there's still pressure on this market. So I'm loving looking at the inventory. You're looking at units, the same thing. Rent Etc. Now, I really like this. A lot of people don't see the value in this, but I got to tell you, when I'm looking at this median price, it says like 2.6 or 2.2. I actually want to see what's the spread. So you can see that like this 2.2, according to this data, is around the median. There's actually quite a lot of numbers, like 15% of the market, 13%, do we like that? 30% of 35% of the market is below 2.2 million. But here's quite a lot. So 10, 20, probably 40% above it. So that actually shows us where the segmentation is. It's not like it's just a little bell curve. There's actually huge amount of properties that are up at that 3.5 above market. Good stuff. Now, the reason I'm really keen on looking at these approval numbers, there's only two townhouses. There was a huge amount of units approved. If you go back here, we know that there's houses, semis and number of units. This only covered 2016. So I'm trying to get an update on what's actually happening. So, you know, potentially if I'd looked here and there was like, you know, 40 townhouses a month going on, like, okay, townhouses are becoming a real thing here, but I'm not seeing that. Actually seeing not a lot of approvals at all, which tells me it's tightly held. As I said, I'm really kind of keen on this. Now. I have tried to get. I'm going to remove myself again. So you can see this better. Have tried to get Kent to change this, but if you can see here, you should see a blue thing move around. So you can just see that blue line that popped up up here. This is the SA one, the smallest level that you can get down to in census, about 200 houses. This is what's happening in this area. So just in this area, public housing, 24%. Now, if you remember, our public housing number was like 1.3. And we're like, don't have to worry about that. But this little area, lots of public housing. I'm getting an idea over here, public housing, zero it, but it borders it. Townhouses, 75%. So you can see how you can actually start going through the areas and seeing, you know, what the area is. Great things to understand, good things to know. So just as an overview, here's how you can get some extra data on, say, Stanmore for this instance. Is it a good area? Depends on what you're buying. Is there indications that indicate that based on housing inventory that there's still pricing pressure here? Yes. Will you be getting a house for 2.6 million? Possibly not, because I think the semis might be actually clouding what that median house price is. And is it an area that people want to rent in? Yes, but what's the typical property? It's a three bedroom unit. So this then brings us back to questions around typical property in the area. This is really what we want to say that you're buying so that you can actually sell and buy and have the most on demand kind of active audience. So you know, I've seen that number of units, three bedroom flat. But I've got to be honest with you, the number of semis is so close to that that I would be looking at this data and con in context and going, you know what A semi is not that non typical for this area. So I wouldn't be wiping this area out. So I hope that gives you a little bit of clarity how I would look at an area. And let's have a look at the next one, St. Peter's okay, so another way that I would look at an area. So let's go Back to step two. St. Peter's should be in here as well. So as I said, I always start here just to get a feel for what's happening in the area. St Peter's where are you? 1.6 million, once again houses. And that's because I mean if you've been following me for nine years, you know, houses outperform units and I really want you to have the greatest success possible. But I do have a question coming from the lovely Suzy who says she wants to buy in an area that the typical price property is a bit different. So let's have a look at that a little later. Once again, census data. Two bedroom semi. Wow. Wow. It's not a lot of properties in this suburb but geez. As a percentage of what's there being sold is quite high. 39% renters as I said, love that public housing, low vacancy rate right on that 3%. So let's just check that out because SQM research gives us some ideas on. So I just want to show you all the different tools I use trying to give you some context of how we would look at this. So we don't stand Portmore anymore. We're in St. Peter's see if I can. St. Peter's Tempe, St. Peter's postcode. Let's make sure we're in the right postcode, 2044. Beautiful. Go. Okay, let's check out these vacancy rates. So the vacancy rates I would say over the last 15 years have been around this 2, 1, 2. And as you can see in 2001 we've had this huge increase. Now could that be because there was a bit of development that came on and large amount of properties that came on the market, no one to rent them September 2020, or could it be that like what we saw in Melbourne and Sydney, International students left and all the units or all of. Because vacancy rates are based on the entire property's asset classes, all the units go. So we've seen it's coming down. So this is a good thing. Let's have a check about this. So townhouses. So units, houses, semis. Once again, the semis. Compared to the number of houses, I would say that you may struggle to find a property worth 1.6. And we can test that out by having a look, look at this. And I'm in the way again. Sorry. So yeah, really small suburb inventory. St. Peter's is coming down as well. The number of properties that are selling, 1.6. Vacancy rates. We've got the houses. Yeah. So there's quite a lot of 1.8 to. So this is like 9%, 6%, 6%. There's quite a lot in that higher price range. But it does indicate that, you know, the segments of below the 1.6 have a number of properties as well. So when we're talking like 20% of the market of houses and we're talking about 300 houses, we're not really talking about, you know, what's 10%, 30, 60. So we're not talking about a lot. But just be aware of that because I think that's kind of important to have a look at as well. What can I tell you about St. Peter's one of the other things that I would use is I would go to suburb trends, Suburb view and as you know, from the ultimate guide to renovation, etc. There's a sneaky little report here that I like looking at just to get an idea of what is happening in the market. And it is the three month yield report. Now it's around rents, but it gives me an idea of listings as well. So. So I'm looking at the fact that there's one, two and three bedroom listings. We can see the yields. So the 20, there's 23 bedrooms of houses. If I look at the units, there was 25 listings for units. So more for two bedroom units. 13 for one bedroom. So two bedroom units, kind of typical townhouses, not that many, one bedroom to six. Now this just gives me a little bit of information about, you know, what is happening in the area and where the listings are. Because I'm really trying to understand, you know, what the market bears for my rental property in the future as well. So, you know, I think it's really important that we have that kind of data and we can have a look at it. And these are the kind of places that I would go to and say, you know, what is happening? Where do we, what, what do we think is happening in the market? It is a very small area. You could go to something like Microburbs. Now bear in mind Microburbs is not been updated with Census data since 2011. So I spoke to the owner, asked him why and he has moved on to other things, unfortunately. But what I really did like about this, they have these great scores and things and it is based on 2011. But let's be honest, we don't have that many things that actually change within that period of time. If I go into like, you're not changing the demographic greatly. If I go into this long term resonance, what I kind of like about the long term resonance is it gives me an idea of how long people stay in that area. So if I'm looking at long term, okay, you can know where I am. If I'm looking this area, it's going to give me the information about how long people have lived, how many, what percentage of people live there for more than five years. Now we're talking now 2011 and back. But it just gives me a little bit of an idea of, you know, this is really tightly held. 80% of people have lived there for more than five years, 49% in this area. So it gives me an idea of what is happening in the market, which I like. And you could also, if you've got access to the RP data and if you need access, we have a great little offer where you don't have to sign up for a year. You can do month to month if you're one of my students and if you're in the club, you're one of my students. So let's just see where that goes in the interim. I'm just going to stop that for a second and save that and open it. Let's have a look at this report. So yeah, small little suburb, median price, houses for sale. So we're getting an idea. I'm going to try to make this Bigger for you getting an idea of the number of properties that. So the left axis is the number of properties sold, which is 36. So number of sold going up. And we're also seeing that the price is changing up as well. So this is good to see because often what we see is that when there's less supply, the price goes up. So this is an unusual kind of look. I like the fact that they always kind of give us this is the median, but this is the 75 percentile. So it indicates there's not that much of a gap upwards, but there is more of a gap downwards. And that's interesting because that kind of validates what we're seeing here, which means that there's more properties in the lower half than there is in the top half. So that's how I would read this data. And what else do we have here? So we should have some information also about what has been happening overall. So population's gone up 9% percent. We've got an idea of the value that has over the last five years. So up and down and up and down, but it's gone up in the last two years by, you know, up by 40% minus 10 upwards. So there's been some really big changes in this area. Okay, let's move on. Oh, lots of questions here. Can you talk about the Perth market? I guess I could. How would I tell you about the Perth market? Let me bring up a few, a few things around the Perth market. Okay, I'm going to stop sharing that I'm going to share on my screen now. I did a presentation to my mentoring students around the Perth market. So let me jump in and find what I felt was really interesting about that. Okay, now propertyology and I'm going to share this with you a little later. They've got some really great reports and what I really like about these reports is that they really go deep on the research. So Simon Pressley's name. So this is what I felt was really interesting when I'm looking at the Perth property market is how reliant they are and their economy is on international exports, in particular China and particular commodities. So it's really important to note that when we're looking at what's happening in Perth, Perth is actually not done that well over a long period of time. And if I could run my little algorithm, I'm going to show you that. Okay. So for my strategy calls, what I often do is I actually run the algorithm to come up with the suburbs so you don't have to Go through the dot maps and you don't have to go through all of the things that we normally go through. But as you can see I've been tracking the market over long, long period of time and you know, minus, minus, minus Perth, minus, minus, minus, minus, minus, still minuses. So you know, we really haven't even got the Perth market back to where it used to be, which is really sad. Darwin is a lot like that as well. And when we have a look at what's happening in the market, I think, you know, it will show you some interesting information there around how that market is compared. The difference between Perth and Darwin, which I find really interesting is that Darwin's had some real great rental growth. Probably outperform most the markets in how much rent increase they've been able to get. So that's something to watch but you know, still the underlying growth is not there. So look, you know, vacancy rates, when we look at vacancy rates compared to commodity prices, oil price goes down, vacancy rates go up, people leave essentially migration, you know, when or when the prices go down, people leave Perth. Now arguably I think it's the 3rd of March, the borders are finally open and people can go in and out of Perth. But you know, it's interesting to see how linked population is to the commodity prices. And here's the other thing, you know, when we've got the reliance on China and the decline of Japan, you know, there is a lot of reliance on China and I think you'd have to be living under a rock not to know there's a lot of upheaval and political tensions there. So I think it's really interesting to watch exports, as exports go up, the price goes up in properties. But you know, I have to be honest with you and say that I feel, feel pretty sad about the, the Perth market and yeah, I don't, I don't think that it's, it's going to be something that's easy to predict. It is coming a little back into its own. But the commodity price and the China reliance would really have me quite concerned. So that is my thoughts on that. Okay, let me, I'm just over here on the other screen. Sorry, I'm looking away. Perth. Okay. Jane, Public housing data on a map. That's amazing. I know, right? And we used to get that off Bright House years ago and then they closed down their public access. Maybe campsie instead of St. Peter's if you can see this. Okay. Someone else would, would be interested in townhouses in Campsie. Three to four bedroom with A lesser degree, houses and semis in Newtown. If there was time, New South Wales would be interested in days on market vacancy rate. Is it worth selling? Okay, I'm gonna have difficulty in talking about you selling because obviously the big disclaimer that was at the front but I forgot to put up which is this is just general information. I'm showing you how I assess areas and properties and suburbs. It has to be in context of your entire portfolio. And so you know, there might be the opportunity to have to carry a negatively geared property which has good growth because you've got a portfolio of positively geared properties that overall balances out and you can afford it. So I think it's important to just clarify that I do know that we've got some other questions here that I'm just going to pull up as well. So let me have a look at Coolum Beach. So cool and beach. Where can I show you cool beach? Oh, I know, I'm going to give you some, some groovy different places to find information. Okay. And I do have new. Nope, that's not it. I do have some new data sources that I want to share with you as tools that I'm just loving at the moment. This will be one of them. Nope. Suburb growth data. So I don't delay. Everyone, let me share my screen and show you what I'm thinking about. So we're having a chat here. Oh, that's a bit ugly. I'm having a chat here about Coulomb. Let me find some ways that I can. Okay, let's check out Coulomb with my dot map. So this is my latest dot maps that have just been generated for the month. Okay. So everyone, this is just for my mentoring students. So you're not going to have access to these now. Coulomb, Coulomb. Sure. It was up now. Am I wrong? No. Okay, so cool. So here's the funny thing around this area, right? Is that in Brisbane, when I have a look at the Sunshine coast market over, you know, the last number of years, 2019, 1.8 1.2 twos fours. And then I look at the Brisbane market, Queensland and I'm looking, you know, Brisbane, even February 2020. Twos, twos, twos. And now they're, because of their 2030 growth, they're up to 5% for annum. Oh, when I did this original legend two years ago, everything was below 6%. So you can see here, when I chose my legend, it was from 0 to 6%. Now that the Queensland market's gone crazy, everything's red now, you know, with the dot maps. I don't use that for the regional areas because I really don't have the pricing pressure and the patterns and the number of suburbs that have the pricing pressure. And there's premiums. On beachside, we look at that in Newcastle, you've got the lake and the beach and it's just difficult. And I don't use it because I don't want to have the wrong information. But if I have a look at Coulomb, which I've now lost again, where did you go? Cool. But now look at Coulomb. You can see here 1.2 is the median house price. Vacancy rate very, very low. 0.4. A nice income, 32% rented, 10 per year, 10% growth, which is fantastic. I would potentially jump over now. I have this really fun data analytics tool that I like heaps. And it's in one of these articles. And the reason that I'm looking at at this is that. Nope, it's not that one. It gives me an idea. Where did I put it? I hate it when I lose things. Prestigious suburbs, realestate.com just get their newsletters because they actually embed fantastic data into them. Now the data unfortunately is a little old, so please note that we're talking about September 2020. But what I like about this is. And one of my mentoring students showed us this, which I love. What I like about this is it actually don't worry about the numbers, but it shows you where the most expensive areas are in that suburb. So we can see here this area and this area are more expensive than these areas. So when you're looking at, for instance, Coolum and you're looking at the areas and you're thinking, hell yeah, I can afford this. 1.1. This is fantastic. You know, I've really, I've got this nailed. And then you start having a look at the price segmentation and you're like, oh, okay, there's a lot at 1 and 1 2. But there's 2. There's a lot that are higher up here. And then you start looking at the data and you start where's these blue areas? So this blue area here, that's kind of correlates to our number three. 55% houses, 56% houses. So you can see as these blue. I hope you can see that these blue things are jumping around. That one just jumped there. If I go backwards, you can see it jumped up here. You can start correlating that and I'll put this into the data for you, you start correlating these areas and you can actually start seeing what the comparison is. So the beachfront's 1.2 700 and this is in 2020. So it gives you an idea of what that differential is as well. And so when you're in an area and you're like hell, this is great, you know, 1.1 million. I've just got a, a fantastic property. But you've bought it out here. It's actually in the lower end so a little bit of extra information on the area. So without further ado I'm going to jump over to my presentation because going to run out of time and I want to share it with you. So this is the update for 2022. I do have a question here from Susie which I'm going to have a look at for her. She asks what does she ask? I've decided to use the suburb selector software for Sydney properties under 800,000 the suburbs like to solve limited my choices down to two suburbs. Both have typical properties of one bedroom units. The suburbs were Wentworth Point and one other. I know you've always said houses are better than apartments for land value but what if a house is not the typical property for the area and the unit is and that's all we can afford. Okay, so here's the thing. You know it is really difficult sometimes to when you run this information and you come up with your area and so for instance we'd have a look at this and we say $800,000 is the limit. I personally would go a little bit higher. So we want to probably go 20% below and maybe 10% higher and we come up with you know, 50k is far enough away for Wentworth. Probably not just making 150k just for the hell of it. Wentworth Point I think it is that she says Wentworth Point. Okay so it's not coming up for me at all. Now let's not sure. Why not let me go to the data behind the data and see what I can see. Wentworth Point. Okay so this is the data I'm looking at. So as I said I have a look difference 12km to CBD. Interesting rented concentration. So if I convert this to a number number and make it a percentage it gives us a really high percentage of renters. So I kind of look around 30 depending on you know, the area. 30 to 70% renters. This tells me there's a large amount of renters good income but large amount of renters. Young population, 21% at uni. Couples without children 57. So a younger demographic. No. Houses, units, semis, three and a half thousand. So this is like all units. So when we start looking at the information and it's hard to get information, it's because we probably haven't got that. The data has been completely skewed by the area itself. So this would concern me and I would jump over here and have a look at Wentworth Point, New South Wales, Parramatta River. Gosh, it's really out there by itself, isn't it? Let's learn a little bit about this. No houses. It's kind of like this, this huge development. So here's the question. If you've got 800,000 to spend and you wanted to be within, you know, the closest you could be, I think 50 is really. Then you actually do have quite a lot of suburbs that do come up. And I know, you know, I had a client, one of my mentoring clients bought out in Badger Creek a house that she's added a granny flat onto for 620. This time last year we worth about 720. Now I have had another client buy. Campbelltown for under that with a 20 flat. So I know there's a lot of areas available that are out in this area. So I just would suggest that, you know, if you can't afford anything other than a unit, just be prepared that if this is for a home, then you know why you're buying it because you know it's emotional for you. If it's for an investment, just be aware that we do know pain and gain report that houses outperform units. And we know that, you know, even more recently that the, if it is as a rental property, there has been a large amount of vacancy rates that we have seen for units. So although it's coming down, it's still over 3%, which would be a concern for me. Inventory. There's seven months of inventory on the market at the moment, which doesn't put pricing pressure on it. Which means that if no more properties come on the market, it'll take seven months to get rid of the current units that are there. Listings have all of a sudden come down, but they were up at 400 like in December. 95. Still a lot units. I don't know what to tell you about this, but, you know, there's a lot of approvals that are coming through. There's no, there's scarcity because it's bounded by the river, but it looks to me like there's development opportunities that will continue going on and the demographic, you know, information actually tells me that they're quite affluent. So in an affluent area, you're buying a unit. Water views. I wouldn't be considering this as an investment opportunity. So what do you do when you can't afford the property that you want? And a lot of people do this. They essentially end up just going to the suburb that they like because they did all the research, but they can't afford it. So they just. Just settle and buy a unit. And I don't think that's a great idea. So, Susie, if you're buying this for emotional reasons, great. But there's no pricing pressure on there. There's a lot of properties on the market. There's a huge amount of renters. I'd just be wary of spending your money. Okay, so guys, let me push on. We've got 20 minutes. I'm hoping that you are enjoying this so far. You're getting some value out of it. Give me a hey, yeah, Jane, it's going well for me. So I know that we're on track here and doing everything that you're after. I do encourage you to go in and check out the Facebook group because there is so many things that have been going on there at the moment, which is really exciting. Okay, so let me give you a little bit of an update of what I see happening in the market. I don't know how I can make this smaller. That doesn't really work so well. Okay, goodbye. All right, so 2022, let's hope it's not like 2022. Two years of the highest rates of home upgrades and relocations in history. So the assumption was we are going to have no immigration, therefore house market will completely collapse. Did not happen. Everyone was upgrading. The RBA is sticking to their belief that they will not raise rates to 2023. We've seen major lenders already raise fixed rates this year a couple of times. AMP started saying that they're going to start raising them in August. Other lenders are saying at the end of the year, the RBA said until they have wage growth, they are not going to raise the rates. Regardless. The fact that inflation is. Is now in their target zone because the inflation is actually, unlike the US and the other countries, a simulated inflation that is higher than expected because of all the costs of transport and delays in distribution. So they believe it's an artificial inflation, not one that indicates there's a growth in the economy, wage growth and everything coming. And now that the borders are open and immigrants are flooding back in, I would indicate that there's going to be Some other issues that are going to come up now. I'm going to go through this quickly, but essentially, you know, their proof shows that it takes 5 to 6 rapid rate rises to have a major effect on a boom. So just keep that in mind. Five to six, we've had none in 10 years. Yes. When they come, we will have probably a few because the market will start going up. Now the information here I'm just putting out over the last 12 months. You know, we've got Perth and Darwin and Melbourne who've been like the little losers down here, mainly around commodities, Perth and Diamond, maybe around immigration, international students, et cetera for Melbourne. What I think you should watch and why I like this RP data is that they're looking at the median price properties, but also the lower and the higher. I often see that the lower end of the market starts rising and. And by the time you start getting the higher end of the market rising, it starts coming down. So just understand that Hobart is kind of in that area at the moment and Adelaide and Brisbane are getting there. Just something I watch with a degree of curiosity and amusement. And it usually correlates clearance rates. Now look, clearance rates are down on last year, light purple being last year. But check this out. We've actually got a lot more sales. So I've only. Clearance rates are just out a little bit. We're actually selling more properties. More supply should take the pressure off some of the market. Here's the data that's just out this week that shows that the difference between units and houses is the highest it's ever been. Another reason why I still think units are bad. And I'm about to sell my first property next month and it's a unit I am getting out. I'm sick of the strata. Ten years, we've only just started to have. Talk about price rises. Keep that in mind. The reason I've shown you this is that the rents have been going up. We are getting pressure on rents so when people can't afford to buy, they rent. When kids are sick of living at home in lockdown for two years, they rent. So there's a lot of things here. Oh, thanks. I appreciate your comments. Always great information. Oh, here we go. Update Wentworth. New development area on the Parramatta river near Rhodes. See how I could work that out without knowing that. And this is how the data tells us about it. Okay, what I like about this, this is buy side buyers, agents, always great data, great buyer's agent. Check it out. What I do love about this is it gives us an idea of the yield but also the median prices. Canberra is now higher than Melbourne. Brisbane is getting right up there, but Hobart's higher than Brisbane. Unemployment, we can see where the highest unemployment is up here in Queensland. And also the population growth. Everyone's going up except Victoria. Immigration around students now I attended. That's a funny face from Shane Oliver. A lot of talks this month, month but essentially the economic outlook is positive. They do expect the home prices to start slowing and 2023 them coming off. As I said, China is a big deal. The federate, the election, everyone stops the month before and up until the election buying. So we're going to have some, some issues there. We've now got, you know, costs going up because of, of this Ukraine, Russia war which is horrible. Banks are lifting interest rates, a lot of them are lifting interest rates based on inflation, wage growth. We are not seeing that. And the RBA who are in the know are saying that they're not going to lift rates until next year. I'm just going to get through this because there's a lot of good information here, but I just don't want to over complicate things. We've already kind of looked at this. This is from Propertyology again, you know, most people are better off with the household wealth than they were five years ago. The debt is a bit higher, but we've actually got more in our bank accounts and there's a lot less bankruptcies. And I was in a talk this morning with mortgage brokers and lenders and there's a lot of optimism still around the market. So, you know, all of these things show us that regionally there has been some really great growth. Southern Highlands, the Shellhaven area, Sunshine Coast, Hunter Valley. You know, there is some really good growth in these regional areas, but there is information to indicate that it is coming off. And based on the survey from nab, they found that people are more likely now to start looking at city living than country living. And I was speaking to one of the government, what do I call regional development people for Victoria just recently and he was saying that, you know, there's limitations on skills and accommodation to move people into the region. So there's a lot of pressure there. So, you know, I think it's interesting that they were talking about people want to be near amenities and shops and they want to be in a house rather than an apartment. They want to have a bit of land they want to be able to buy in metro areas. So, you know, I think that we need to kind of read this information some predictions around 2020. This is from Rich, from Sydney, buyers agent, as I said, attend a lot of webinars and things and get a lot of information. He's seeing the market, predominantly Brisbane going up, Canberra, Adelaide and then Melbourne and Hobart. So pretty much all good except poor old Perth. Once again, let's have a look at some of the forecasts. So CBA, they're talking 2022. We're not going to have the growth that we did have, but we still still have great growth. Now let's be honest about this. 7% growth means your house price doubles in 10 years. So 72, rule of 72 divided by 7 means it takes 10 years to double. Now we can't complain about 7% growth because this used to be our target out there in the distance. Just because we've had 26, 22, 27, 29, we need to be realistic. These are really good growths. Now what they are predicting is that these price pressures, there is a correction coming. Everyone's predicting this, NAB's predicting it, ANZ's predicting it. We've got Westpac predicting 2023. Not as substantial as others. My housing market, Andrew Wilson, who's started this company, you know where the market's going to be. We're going to have some positive market for the houses up here. Brisbane, Adelaide, Canberra, the PD picks, Sydney, Hobart and then Melbourne. Units are going to be below that. SQM research. They, you know, we've been through their boom, their boom bust report. They have a number of scenarios where they see what the market could potentially do. They usually get it right. So, you know, if we have an election and labor gets in or whatever and no negative gearing changes and all of the things, things that are predicted, there's some interesting changes there. I'm not going to go into that. There has been some great growth as well. When you're watching this and recording, you can stop this and have a look. I'm aware that I have your attention for three minutes and I just want you to see the big picture. Average Australian house price all over Australia is over a million dollars at the moment. So you know this, this is just extraordinary when we look at where these prices are and the fact that Canberra's median house price for the first time has gone over 1 million, Sydney's at 1.39. So we're really getting a gap between the regions and Australia when we start looking at where the actual price is. So would 7% on a million dollar property growth be better than 20% on a $300,000 property. They're the kind of calculations you need to ask about real money. Rents, as I said, rents are going up. Found this really interesting, the housing supply. So you know when you've got a boom, you've got supply coming down, limiting. Everyone's like, oh, I need to get in there and push prices up. When you've got lots of supply, there's a downturn. So just monitor this, Start looking at this. As you can see, you know, lower Supply down to January 22nd. Lower supply, lower supply, lower supply. So these are the kind of indicators you need to look at. So this is why this predictions that these are actually cooling off in the Sydney market and potentially in Darwin as well. Hotspotting Terry Ryder, he's at his big predictions. Regional. New South Wales, regional. Western Australia is in the top three. Regional or Queensland, as we know. Terry loves the regions. Then Sydney, Canberra. So all good stuff here. Now I just wanted to have a look at these X factors. Richard from Sydney. Buyers agents called these out. International borders, expats and infrastructure I want to pick up on. As we can see, Melbourne's kind of lost 50,000 people. Regions have gained 50,000 people. Brisbane's got 20,000. Other capitals up 20,000. There has been a significant change in where people were in the last few years. If you had a chance to have a look at Rob Fluck's presentation, oh, my goodness. I sat through the five hours of it last Saturday and regretted not a second. It was fantastic. This population really shows us where people come from overseas, internal or natural. Now, overseas immigration, as you can see Melbourne, this is where they are. This is where their population is driven by. This is why there's high vacancy rates. This is why the market hasn't moved as much. Internal migration, not so much internal migration, kind of huge. So you can see here, you know where we are at the moment in con in the fact that where overseas migration are going to come to, generally these areas, the regional areas versus this, the other thing, infrastructure. What I really found interesting here is New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland. These are kind of. Yeah, we'd like to give it a go. Western Australia's huge here is like. Like we've put some money behind this. So we've got New South Wales and Victoria and Queensland leading way. Here's like we're announced, we're going ahead. New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland. No Western Australia leading the way. They're actually sourcing it. New South Wales, Victoria. We have awarded contracts, we're moving forward. New South Wales, Victoria, New South Wales, Victoria, New South Wales, Victoria. Where's the immigrations come? New South Wales, Victoria. Where do the borders open? New South Wales, Victoria. Hearing what I'm saying, major infrastructure. Very interesting. South Australia 25 to 27. They're going to need all of these people to start doing their building of all of this building infrastructure. And another interesting thing about South Australia that I'm exploring a little bit further is around the ease of getting permanent residency around if you go to Adelaide because apparently it's considered regional. Lots and lots of infrastructure projects. Rob Flux, amazing presentation. Just picks up on the fact that underlying inflation is about 2.1 according to the RBA and it's been affected by global supply chain differences. He just gave this sensational future area of the market. He does believe that there's an incredible opportunity in the next six months where people who've got properties on the market are going to get a little disappointed and be up for negotiating. And his idea is around development. The rest of his talk was around development. I'll put you a link in the description at the top. If you're interested in development, let him know that I sent you because he'll look after you real well. Actually he looks up to everyone really well, but he has that in data integrity and he believes that there's a negotiating time for developers at the moment for people who aren't willing to move on price Just finishing up. I've got a lot of people ask me about where to buy and how to buy. I do strategy sessions. Please check them out. It might be something that interests you. I can give you resources and you can have a strategy call and we'll get to be able to have a chat. So yeah, that's about it from me, guys. I think that you've probably heard me run on and on and on, but it's a bit of fun looking at suburbs and seeing the different tools that you can use that give you the insight of what's happening. And as you know, I don't know half of these areas, but I can actually get a gauge really quickly with the suburbs lecture software. And I've shown you the different areas rather than having it all in one place, different areas, you can get that data as well, but just having that integrity of buying and being able to buy. And I think there's a lot of disappointed people with properties on the market at the moment who are willing to negotiate. So you know, is it time to buy? Maybe there could be a pullback in the market. The banks are predicting next year, but you know, once the immigration starts picking up, Sydney, Melbourne and potentially Adelaide is what I'm looking at is where people are going to be moving to in the next six months. They're not going to rush here straight away. In a year's time they'll be able to get money and loans and permanent residence tendencies so they can get loans to buy houses. So where are the major people coming to? Where is the major infrastructure? What is the typical property these people are after? These are all the questions that I'd like you to ask yourself. So great. Oh, thank you so very much. I really appreciate your time and being able to share this with you. It's. Yeah, it's really, it's really fun in pulling this together. And as you can see, I kind of, I really like the data integrity and looking at the different information and trying to see where people are coming from who are making the big calls and then with amusement, looking at some of the data in the magazines and the newspapers that are calling out things that are maybe just taking in one little piece of data. So don't be alarmed, don't be worried. There are predictions around the market coming off next year and if they come off for a year until the immigration boom can, you know, bring people back into the market, I think that's a good thing. We're going to see rents go up and we're going to see a lot of activity. But, yeah, whole time. Anyhow, guys, it has been wonderful sharing this information with you. As always, here is to your property success. Have a great end of month and I'll see you next month. Bye for now.