Real Estate Capital Growth Month! Insights from Louis Christopher SQM Research (March 2018)

Hello clubbers, it is Jane Slacksmith here and as we know, it's March 2018. So we are all here for Capital Growth Month and continuing in the way that we've started. 12:30 on Wednesdays, we bring one of Australia's most prominent property experts and commentators to the table. Answer any questions you have, but also to share some of their insights about capital growth and, and exactly what it could mean to you. So if you haven't listened to the capital growth expert that we had on last week, go back and have a look at that video. Have a look at Sarah's video as well from the Friday catch up about what capital growth has mean to her. And this Friday at 12:30, we'll be chatting to another one of our community members. So please, if you have any questions and you have any thoughts or anything you'd like to ask Louis, please let us know. But I, with great excitement, would like to invite Louis Christopher from SQM Research to join us. Hi, Louis, how are you going?

Good, thank you, Jane.

Great to be here.

I have to say, when I put your name up from Facebook, it comes up with a very long name. You've got a few middle names going on there.

That's Facebook for you. Yes. I didn't used to have it though. I used to have it as Louis Christopher and then one day I woke up and found that Facebook suspended my account and they said I no longer believed I am who I am, which I found extraordinarily frustrating. Anyway, I had to send you all this ID to them, which included my ex, my full name, and they now basically will only let me keep my account if I publish my full name. So that, That was my grandmother who set that up as well. She said, oh look, this little boy should have two middle names.

Oh my goodness. I have to say my grandparents looked at my father and went with a name like Slacksmith. He doesn't need an extra middle name, so he would never have been qualified for Facebook, which is probably a good thing. Well, we're here to chat about capital growth and welcome and thank you so much. Thank you so much for joining us. It's such a privilege to have someone of your expertise joining us with the club and sharing a little bit about capital growth. Because really, I don't know about your opinion, but I think it's what makes the world go around in property.

Well, for property investors, no question it is. It is largely about capital growth and finding those areas which are going to produce long term gains which are perhaps less volatile as well. I mean, you can pick areas which potentially could provide massive capital growth, but you might well be taking on a heck of a lot of risk in doing so. So for us it's about. Okay, firstly for us it's about providing information on all areas, whether they're gaining or not, and providing information which allows investors and home buyers and home sellers and institutions to make the right decisions. Absolutely.

And I think that the thing is around growth is that, you know, you look at some of the drivers for growth. I don't know what are the traditional drivers that you choose as the top kind of five drivers? When you're looking at what has made suburbs grow in the past, we have.

Found that over time that one of the big key drivers of growth is income growth in the area where the incomes are actually increasing in that local area. And it's not necessarily tied to population growth either. So we've seen areas where you have strong population growth, yet prices do nothing. It's about, over the long term, strong income growth. And that may well be generated through a demographic change that's actually occurring in that area. Areas that perhaps were once regarded as being, say, poor may well can change simply by an improvement in infrastructure or simply that a city is expanding. And that locality is no longer regarded as being in the sticks. It's regarded as very much as being part of suburbia. So we follow very closely localities which experience long term income growth that is outperforming the wider area.

Okay, so if we went to the SQM Research website, would we be able to see that information there?

Yes. So we have on our website a demographic section. It's free, you don't need to sign up to anything. And lots of people actually have demographics and I'm sure you've come across that. But what we do is we've actually brought the census Data back to 1991. And so we've charted the demographics so everyone can see how the demographics have changed over time. And that is for us, the key. And that's on the front, that's on the front page of our website. And you can go into free property data and then you go in and you see demographics.

Yeah, there it is.

You can see part of it. Now you see that chart that's above. There we go. And you're clicking on, you can see all the things we've got. And you'll see below there, there's one on called income or family income.

Okay, so let's choose a suburb. What would be an interesting postcode that we could choose?

Let's choose. I Think one in Melbourne that has experienced strong income growth compared to the citywide average. And I would take a bet and say Carlton. We could look at Carlton as an example. That might be one.

Or core field.

There's a lot of units there, isn't there?

Yeah, there is. So that might not be the right one.

And I must admit, I haven't go.

Out a little bit and maybe pick up one of these gentrifying areas like Coburg.

Go for it. Put Coburg in.

I love these real live examples on the go. Okay, let's check it out.

So, yeah, so the blue bars represent the family income in the area and the red line is the statewide average.

That's interesting, isn't it? So we're actually comparing it to the statewide. So we can see that over time it's been pretty much on PAR until about 2006. And in the last 10 years, there's been a huge income growth of that family. Weekly income.

Yeah.

And I'll take a bet then that.

Real estate prices have outperformed in that area. Not that I know. Straight off the bat, I don't. But if you do know, then that may well in part explain it.

If there is outperformance, there's definitely been an upturn there in real estate prices. And I think that it's one of those areas that we see just from that ripple effect. You know, the Carlton Brunswick takes off and it becomes unaffordable. And we head over to Coburg next and those price points around 900 plus plus now. 950 plus.

Wow. Okay.

So that's interesting. So income is one of the measures. What's the other measure that some of the other measures you look at that would have had driven growth?

Well, population is definitely there, but with population, one's got to be careful about supply responding to that population. So I'll give you a classic example which occurred right throughout the 1990s, and that was the Gold Coast. So if you've ever spent some time.

On the Gold Coast, Jane, you'll know.

That the local wealth builders there talk about the Gold coast having massive population growth. But the thing is, the council, Gold Coast City council there historically has been very liberal in terms of opening up areas for supply, which has been great for homeowners and tenants and so forth, but probably hasn't been so good for property investors because it's been very much the case of population increases and so does supply. And more often than not, you have this situation where there's a surge in demand, then supply rapidly over response. And that's where you've got to be careful about areas where they're rapidly expanding in population is that the supply side can really respond quite quickly. Now the Gold coast is in an interesting situation where on this particular cycle we have had once again a surge in demand for real estate. But the supply side has not responded as well this time around, though the show is not quite over yet. I think we are seeing a little bit more of a supply response in this current year in the lead up to the Commonwealth Games. But so far artificial.

Well, isn't it?

Yes and no.

I think that there has been a strong population surge on the Gold coast.

And this time around we've had a.

Situation where the developers have not been given as much lending approval by the banks to build and so not as many projects have been coming out of the ground this time around. And sure enough, we have been seeing outperformance of prices on the Gold coast over the past four years now. But I just don't think, I think the cycle hasn't ended yet and I think the top of the cycle will still see that supply surge come through.

Okay.

Well.

I guess when we think is we look at growth and we can look at historically what has happened and you've come up with the income growth and population growth have really kind of been the things that have been almost the catalyst to, to good growth areas. What about if you pull out that crystal ball and share with us what are your thoughts about what's happening in the market and how much growth we have to go if we kind of zoom around Australia.

Yeah, look right now, from what we.

Can see now, leading indicators, it is a mixed housing market and there is some conjecture in terms of what exactly is happening right now in some cities, namely Sydney. But overall we're seeing a situation where if we start from the west coast, Perth, our leading indicators increasingly suggesting that the bottom is in, in the Perth housing market, we're seeing now a sustained downward trend in rental vacancy rates. And that's really critical, Jane, because in the downturn, when the downturn actually started in Perth, which was basically back in 2012, it was led by a rise in vacancies. So we've been on the lookout in terms of vacancy rates being the key leading indicator, waiting for that to top out and waiting for that to fall. And we're now seeing that that vacancy rate.

I have your report that came out yesterday that I'm going to share that we can actually see.

Since you're on our website, you'll be.

Able to See the free property data.

You should be able to click on the vacancy rates chart for Perth and it really shows it quite well. But yes, you've got our media release and you'll see the Perth number and you'll see what's important. There is a year on year change and also the month on change. So we recorded a vacancy rate for Perth of 4.1% for February, which in itself is elevated. But we'll come to that point in a moment. That was down from 4.4% in January and importantly down from 5.1% in February. And this is the key with our vacancy rates and we have a very strong following for our vacancy rates across the country. It's not just the absolute number that counts, Jane, it's the relative trend. So if I'm seeing a situation where, say, in a township vacancy rates are going from, say, 10% to down to, say, 5%, I can guarantee you that even while 5% sounds quite high, the rents will be rising because it's that relative movement in the vacancies are tightening and rents would be rising as a result. By the same token, in Canberra, back in 2009, the vacancy rate was.

I just have that Perth graph up there, Louis.

Oh, yeah, you can see it now. Look at the downward trend that's occurring in the chart there in recent months. It's clearly on the downtrend now, compared.

To back to 2012 and 2013, where.

It was just rapidly rising.

Yep. And this is. So when you talk about your lead indicators, this is one of the lead indicators. What are the other kind of lead indicators that you look for?

It depends on the area.

So for Perth, Perth was very interesting how the fact that the vacancy rates led the city into the downturn. It's not always the case for all cities like it. So the other leading indicator that we like to follow, particularly for Melbourne and Sydney, are listings and what listings are actually doing, whether listings are rising or falling. And naturally we also follow auction clearance rates, which we can talk a little bit about later if you like. But the listings is quite critical and I might as well point you to. If you're on the website now, have a look at the listings for Sydney.

Because there's been a development there as well.

So what I'm looking at here, just guide me to where the listings are. Free property data.

So you go to free property data.

And look at total listings or stock on market.

Yep.

And then when you go into there, click on Sydney.

So we'll do that for Sydney 2000.

No, no, you'll see above there you.

Should be able to click on the city itself. Not just Postcode. You don't want to click on Postcode 2000. You want to click on the city itself.

Okay, let me go from the thing. Total property listings.

Okay.

Scroll down and you should see below.

There the ability to click on the region.

Not at the moment.

All right.

Okay, I've got another option for you. Do you want to go right back to our front page, SQM Researcher. Click on the top right logo, Sqn Research. Click on that. Okay, Click on property. Okay.

Scroll right down.

Until you see the indexes for asking prices. And you see Sydney. Can you see Sydney?

Yep.

Click on Sydney.

Got it.

Now one more step. Okay, scroll down right down there and you'll see it says stock on market for Sydney.

Keep going, keep going. Says stock on market for Sydney. You see it?

It's great having one of the actual designers here to direct us.

Okay, now we're there.

Okay, so this is the listings.

Right.

Okay, now, so you'll see the purple line represents the number of units for sale, and the blue line represents the number of houses for sale. And you'll see there.

Firstly, let's point out to the trend.

That we've been getting. You'll see from 2012 through to about 2015, listings were basically trending lower. But in most recent times, they've been trending higher. So there's more supply of property that's been coming into the market. Now, in the scheme of things, let's just consider what it's been historically and.

You'Ll see, you'll be able to.

There's a bar there. You can move the chart backwards back through time.

Yep.

Okay, take it all the way back.

Okay.

You'll see there 2008, where the series began. And you'll see that we had back in the GFC, there was about 43,000 properties on the market.

Wow.

Then it quickly.

So, yeah, back in 2008, July, August, the market was looking pretty sour. And then we got through the gfc. And then of course, you may recall the first homeowners grant and those big interest rate cuts we had in later 2008. And that rapidly saw demand absorb a lot of the stock that was on the market. And listings fell, which is normally a big sign of a market moving forward. Then, of course, 2010, 2011 were years where there was a bit of a downturn in Sydney. And you'll see listings rose during that time. And the ABS has noted that prices basically fell by about 3% over the course of that period. And that was generated because of the interest rate rises that we had in 2010 in the repeal of the first home owners grant boost.

Yeah.

Then, okay, from about 2012 onwards, listings fell again. And we put that down to the fact that we had interest rate cuts in 2011 and 2012 in particular, and a resurging local economy. And this is also a time when the population growth rate started to really accelerate in Sydney. But it was predominantly as a result of the interest rate cuts. And you'll see there, basically listings fell right away to basically a record low that we had in 2015. And this was a time when in the June quarter, 2015, Sydney recorded a massive price spike of 8% in one quarter. Prices rose 8% in one quarter. Those were the official numbers from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. It went just crazy. And that's when APRA started stepping into the marketplace and they started putting clamps on property investors. Now, as you can see, listings are back on the rise again. I'm sure you will have heard auction clearance rates have been a bit soft in Sydney, but we're nowhere near those levels in 2008.

We're just approaching those levels that we had in 2011.

So our view going forward is right now, as we speak in Sydney, it's a market that is a little bit soft. It's definitely softer than where we were this time last year. It's become a little bit of a buyer's market. But we're not having some type of.

Full scale big correction.

And I think it's very unlikely we will. And one of the major reasons why we don't think this is the big one is because once again, the actions of apra. So APRA in the last week came out and said that they are going to lift the limits that they put on property investors back in 2015. They haven't told us when they're going to do it, but we're already seeing through some of the banks becoming a little bit more liberal towards property investors once again. I don't know if you've noticed that.

Or not, but yeah, I'm getting messages daily from the banks dropping the interest rates and the fixed rates for investors, which is fabulous. Like some of them are going down, you know,.5,.751% on what we've seen, which is good. So they're showing a little bit more appetite, but we're still getting a strong indication that. Well, actually, I was just speaking to one of my credit reps today. We've got banks saying that they have a policy of cash out, no questions asked. But they're asking a lot of questions.

Yes.

So they're starting to even tighten things internally a bit more.

They have been doing it, you're quite right. So I think in terms of the checking that they're doing and checking serviceability and making sure the income you state you have is a genuine income, they're doing all that and being even more rigorous. However, what they are also doing is they're still now allowing the banks to expand their book once again. So there's no some type of hard limit in terms of investment lending or sealing, investment lending that's been taken away. So even while the banks are being rigorous in terms of their checking, they can at least write more loans and they're willing to write more loans now than where we were, say 12 months ago.

I mean, I know we've seen those first home buyers come back and some in Victoria and Melbourne, there's been some stamp duty concessions, et cetera, but it hasn't replaced that investor market at all.

No. And we must remember too that it's not just been apra, that's been stepping in the market. Of course, on the last federal budget we had a situation where the liberal government basically clamped down on claiming travel expenses. And importantly, even while it didn't receive a lot of media, funnily enough, the plant and equipment depreciation, which is what normally turns a cash flow negative property into a cash flow positive one after tax, they took that away. And I thought that was huge. But for some reason the media didn't.

Really pick up on it.

I know. I mean, we've all got friends who've got depreciation businesses and they picked up on it and they're in their campaign. It didn't seem to be a big issue in the media being picked up.

No, it was really strange. That's still there and that makes investors think twice about it. I'm not anticipating a surge in investor activity later this year, but I do think investors will be coming back a little bit more than where they are today. Hence the reason why we're not perhaps as bearish or downbeat on the market for this year. But Jane, I think we are at an interesting point because we are well aware of what labor wants to do should they win the federal election. And that is take away negative gearing entirely. And I cannot help but think that that's probably going to be playing on investors minds as we get closer and closer to the election.

Well, there's one way to prevent that, isn't it, Louis?

Yes, that's true. Right now they are well ahead in the polls.

Previous voting patterns change quite considerably. Now I just want to bring back quickly just so we can wrap around and have a look at some of the other states. I mean, you mentioned these lead indicators, which is the vacancy rates dropping and insanely 8,000 properties vacant in Perth, 10,000 in Brisbane, 15,000 in Sydney. But there's a proportion of a much different population which results in these kind of results if we just take these cities one at a time. Your thoughts? I'm glad to hear that you're not as downbeat as everyone else around some of the eastern suburbs, eastern states. But tell me about Adelaide. What are your thoughts about happening in Adelaide in 2018?

Adelaide, we're cautious. I must say the vacancy rate is quite tight there in Adelaide right now at 1.4%. So in terms of rental vacancy, things are holding for me. While the reason why I'm cautious is because I don't feel that we have seen the full consequences of the wind up of the automobile industry. That's effectively only happened in November, December last year. And I don't think it's fully played out yet in terms of the job losses. I mean, the job losses have happened, so this has already happened. But the effect upon the market. It's really hard for us to be bullish on Adelaide while we feel that is still playing out. That said, I note the ABS has been recording declines in unemployment for Adelaide, which is. Which has surprised us. I just need. I feel we need to see more data before we can be more bullish. And I do remain cautious on Adelaide.

I did read a report now many years ago that when they started sacking people in Wollongong at the steel plants there, it took about four to five years before the population kind of gave up and moved on.

Yeah.

So probably that's that lag that we're seeing. What about. Well, what about Perth? You've just gave us a quick indication. We're starting to see vacancies drop, which is an indication. And we're seeing more properties on the market or what's happening with the market?

We're starting to see less properties on the market, if I recall the number of listings, but it's still well and truly elevated. So what we're seeing in Perth now is an improvement in the rental market, which is fantastic for investors there who have been through a pretty unpleasant time. Rents have effectively fallen 25% from their peak. So that's hurt a lot of property investors as you can well imagine. So we're seeing some good news on that front for property investors. I believe this year that will feed through to a bottom in the for sale market. We're not quite seeing the bottom yet. We're still seeing falls in asking prices, but we're getting very close. Our forecast for Perth prices is that we'll see a rise of between 1 to 4% this year. And that will be the. If we're right, that'll be the first rise in dwelling prices since 2012.

It's been a long time coming.

Hasn't has now I'd like to point out. Sorry, I was about to say I'd like to point out Melbourne compared to Perth because if you look at the vacancies in Melbourne, there's actually less vacancies in Melbourne than there are in Perth right now. That's right. And there's less vacancies in Melbourne compared to Brisbane, which has about 10,000 and certainly less than Sydney which has 15,000. Right. So, wow. Melbourne is tight. We actually recorded a vacancy rate of 1.4%. I'll have to check our numbers. I'd say they'd be very close to a record low.

Really?

And what is really interesting here is that you may recall basically from about three years ago and they've recently made this claim as well. The Reserve bank of Australia highlighting Melbourne as an area for potential oversupply. And look at the numbers. We're not seeing it. There's no oversupply. Why? Why is there not any oversupply occurring? Despite the fact that everybody has seen the cranes, there has been a lift in completions and construction. Melbourne's been actually running at record construction. So why have we not seen oversupply?

Is 1800 people a week moving here?

Yes. Yes.

Well, actually it's more than that. The city is now expanding by over 110,000 people a year. So greater than the size of the mcg.

Come to Melbourne. We've got a great climate, you've got.

A great climate, but boy, does the infrastructure need to keep up.

Exactly. Well, I've got to say if you've driven around Melbourne in recent months, you'll know that pretty much the entire city is under construction for new tunnels and railways and things. So I guess they're hearing the ploy. Not all the transport MOD cons that we could have gone ahead, would have gone ahead, but at least we're making a bit of a change.

Yeah. That is critical because I think.

If.

The infrastructure doesn't catch up, I don't think Melbourne will regard it as the best city to live in the world or nearly the best city to live in the world for much longer.

What about Brisbane? We've been waiting for Brisbane's growth cycle for I'd say at least three years. It should kind of been stagnant. It should come. It should come. Is it going to come?

Not quite yet, no. We have a vacancy rate 3.4%, which is. It's down a little bit from where we were this time last year, 3.6%. But there is still this large overhang of stock in the cbd. It is rather significant. We're recording vacancy rates and newstead of over 5%. South Bank, I think the last reading I had was about 8%. It is very much a tenants market there. And of course that's been dragging down rents in the CBD and that's had a flow on effect to the rest of the city. So rents in Brisbane have been slightly falling. So I cannot be bullish on Brisbane until we see that overhang of unit stock basically come to an end now may well towards the end of this year because we are noticing a decline finally now in building approvals. So that's a good new sign that the developers no longer as keen to build. So that will help. But this is a classic scenario of what I discussed earlier on that Brisbane's been in that situation where, yes, we've had population growth increases. Brisbane's running at about 1.8% per annum, if I recall. But the supply has kept up. The supply has kept up in this scenario in this city. And so that has been so great for property investors. That said, though, if you own a freestanding house in Brisbane, things have been better. The capital growth over the last few years for a freestanding house has been running at between about 4 to 7% per annum.

Okay, good growth. And what about this is small, other than Hobart, 0.8% vacancy rate. Insane.

Yeah, yeah. Very, very tight in Canberra. And we have seen a lift in rents over the past 12 months. If I recall a number we're seeing about a 6% rise in rents. So yes, quite tight. But on the for sale side in Canberra, not as strong. There's been a surge in listings of late, so more vendors for some reason have been keen to sell and that's been putting a little price growth in Canberra.

Now, we had a chat about Sydney, but what about Darwin? Is there hope for Darwin? Are they tracking Perth and do they always track Perth? I guess the question is Darwin seems.

To be lagging Perth. So Perth entered into the downturn, first before Darwin, but then Darwin did enter and boy did it have a downturn. And the latest numbers are suggesting, similar to Perth, that they're starting to trend down in terms of rental vacancies. They're still elevated. 3.3% is kind of elevated, but it's heading in the right direction, which is great. Like Perth, the for sale market has not yet bottomed. So we're seeing price declines in Darwin over the past 12 months of about 4% and are not seeing anything in our asking prices index, which is suggesting that vendors are becoming confident.

Okay, and what about Old Hobart?

Well, yes, I mean, Hobart, we've just got half a percent vacancy that's up marginally from January when it was at 0.4. These are record lows for Hobart. I mean, just 145 properties vacant in the month of February. That's just extraordinarily low. And sure enough, rents have really picked up. We're talking about rental increases over the last 12 months of about 8% and that follows on from another 8% increase we had back in 2016, 2017. So very, very tight. The developers are starting to wake up to it and there has been some movement. So we are expecting an increase in supply in Hobart for completed dwellings next year, but it's not really coming this year in our view. So conditions are going to be very tight on the rental market and then that has transferred to big capital gains on the for sale market. So our numbers show that dwelling price has increased by about circa 15% over the past 12 months for Hobart. I was about to say, you know, Jane, Hobart is a type of boom bust city. You've got to be on the right side of it.

Yeah. And I mean, it is a concern, isn't it, where you, you have a market that everything about the economy and population doesn't really stack up to why you're having that growth. And, and there is a, you know, potentially a, an overhang of those. People go, I can't afford Sydney, I can't afford Melbourne, I can't afford Brisbane. Hey, he's Hobart. And it's almost like it's, it's just people chasing that. But the reality is that, you know, it happens once every, I don't know, 10 years or so. You know, the numbers in Hobart and I just worry about the other eight years that people are holding these properties, especially if they have a short term goal of achieving, you know, financial freedom in 10 years time.

Yeah, I think for say a home buyer, gee, you'd want to have a job which is specialists and can work in Hobart. Your typical white collar worker, for example, may well struggle to get jobs there. Hobart doesn't have a great finance sector to make that type of move. Gee, you'd want to be sure that you have job security or if you've got a business, that business can definitely work in Hobart. That's not to say that they've made great inroads in terms of their economy. I think the state government's been doing a great job in terms of creating economic opportunity and that's helped the citizens. And Hobart as economy is far better than what it was 10 years ago, but it's still a relatively narrow economy which is particularly susceptible to, say, a strong rise in the Australian dollar. So we've noted in our numbers, whenever you've seen a surge in the Australian dollar, like what we had, say in 2010 when we had the commodities boom, Hobart actually suffered under that scenario, and they would suffer again. If we saw the Australian dollar get above, say, $0.90 USD, there would be troubles for Hobart.

Well, I think the, you know, what I've really taken out of this conversation is we do look at the lag indicators of growth often and we can use them to help predict the future. So we talked about income growth, population growth. But these lead indicators that you're looking at know vacancy rates listings and, you know, just getting a feel for clearance rates, which is not, you know, I guess it's a kind of a lead. It's kind of the now rates. These kind of things give us an indication of what's happening to the market right at the moment. So it's great that we can actually put all these together into helping us choose where to buy.

Well, that's it. And that's what we're all about. We're a research house that's really keen to provide informative information of what's going on now and the reasons why.

Well, I have to say thank you so very, very much, Louis. I really appreciate you joining us today at the club and we hope to have you back some other time. But, you know, March is all our capital growth month at the moment, and we're so thankful that you could share your insights from your many years of research with us.

Good to be here, Jane. Glad we can assist.

Okay, I'll let you go and I'll do a wrap, let these people know where we are at the moment.

Thank you.

See you.

Okay, guys. Well, that is it for this. Wednesday's 12:30. Talking to the expert. I want to let you know to tell your friends about the club. We're really proud about your Property Success club and we're really excited to have more and more people join. We we've recently just changed the way that the club works and now people can actually get into the club for as little as $10 or what they can afford. So, you know, you spend $97 a month, get in, get access to all those amazing modules, get the private Facebook group and speak to great experts like Louis, which we are so thankful to have on board. But I want you to go over to SQM Research, go and have a look at that amazing data. Then the boom and bust report actually takes in a lot of those considerations that Louis was talking about as well, making the predictions about the different areas and what happens if the Australian dollar goes up or interest rates go up. So he does put in a number of scenarios in there too. So check out that report and head over to SQM Research and yeah, go crazy with the data. So once again, here is to your property success. It's been fabulous having you here on board today. And please stay tuned for 12:30 on Friday where we're going to chat to someone in our community about capital growth and what it has meant to them. So all the best and bye for now.