Your Property Success Mentor Call October 28-10-2021

Hello. Hello everyone, and welcome to the youe Property Success club live for October 21st. And I hope you are all wonderful and it is great to think that most of the country is now out of lockdown. And for those in Melbourne, six o' clock tomorrow night seems to be another step towards freedom, which is fantastic. Now I would love for you to just type in and let me know that I'm coming through loud and strong. It's nice to be able to be back in the office after two months, but you know, tech may not all be working, so let's just bear with it. And as always, you know, this is an opportunity for me to share information with you, to also explore your questions and see if I can assist you and serve you. And I am not a real estate agent or a lawyer or a financial planner or an accountant, so there may be questions that I'm going to have to refer you to other people. And all of the information that I share with you is based on my own experience and those of my students and clients. So without further ado, I would love for you to just let me know that. Coming through loud and clear. Thank you so much, Susie. It's so nice to see that you tap that link too, so I can see your name, which is fantastic. And I know Susie's got a question that she has asked for me to address today, which is fantastic because I always love getting into questions straight up. But I trust you all are doing well. It's been a really busy month, as you know. There's been a lot of changes that have gone on. The change in lockdown of having Sydney and Melbourne released has allowed the property market to go into its next phase, which has been fantastic to see. And it's also really good to see that there's some optimism around as well. And I know that some of the mortgage clients I've been working with and the mentoring clients, which I'm intimately involved with, the purchases that they're doing, I'm seeing a lot of activity and it's just really, really interesting to have a look of what's happening in the market. Not sure what's happening there. I can see that Paul has joined the stream. I'm not sure, Paul, if you're trying to a question asked or if you are just wanting to come up and show your face. So let me know in comments and we'll do that and jump straight into it. Well, let me share my screen here and hopefully you guys can see this. Fantastic. Okay, so let me just know that you can see it and we will just head straight into some of the questions and the wraparound. I've got so many interesting things to tell you about this month. There's so many things that are going on and there's so many new pieces of information that you know, I'd really love to be able to share with you and show you what is happening because there is a lot of new data available to us and with new data we get the opportunity to then go and use that for our intelligence. So let's just push in. Susie has asked a fantastic question here. In actual fact, Susie, who has been part of this community, I don't know Susie, how long I'm going to push out to say maybe six to eight years. Susie's sent ahead four questions so let's just dive straight into those and have a look at them. And I can see also in the Facebook page that there are some other questions there that I would definitely jump straight onto as well and answer those questions as soon as that we have some, some information. So Susie, you have seen said here that where do you get the 10 year average data from since the your investment property magazine is no longer available? So I'm just going to jump over here and show you. As a member of my community I understand when we teach the location masterclass and the ultimate guide to renovation to get a full expression of what is happening in the market, I get people to do a dot map exercise. Now the dot map exercise I really want people to be able to get in and look at the last 10 year growth for suburbs. However, we've always got that information from the back of the magazines. Now you can possibly if you go into your property investing magazine now it's all online. Where are you? Yep, here we go. They do have some really great information in here that you can get for free. So if you just go through and actually, you know, put in a suburb that you're, you know, keen on, Mount Gravatt, for instance in Queensland, if you put that information in there then you're going to get some really good, you know, information that comes up. Just note where the information comes from. CoreLogic Sep 21 Sometimes the data that you get from different places is a little bit older and what this gives you is an indication of what has been happening in the area. Now when they usually talk about annual capital growth, this is 10 year growth. So just remember that's how that information is usually put out. So average annual growth. Remember we have this conversation quite often in the your property success club. It is, is the 10 year growth. However, I understand that that's really, really painful to go through all the suburbs and do that because as you might recall, you know, when I teach the Location Masterclass I talk about getting the 10 years worth of data, you know, and then getting the legend together and looking at the dot maps and pricing pressure. Bear in mind this is for major capital cities and doesn't work for regional areas. For those of you who are in the Location Masterclass course, I have actually I buy the data every single month for it from SQM Research and what I've done is I've put that whilst we're in the middle of all these weird stuff into the a link there for you that's updated every single month. And I have to be honest with you, I think I was feeling really particularly generous at one stage and I think I may have even put that into the your property success club and obviously access to that is via the access to via a donation. Kids help one look, there you go. Geez, aren't I nice? So there you. There you have it. This is where you can get that data. It's updated for the month of October there. So I hope that helps with that question that you had there. Susie. Question 2 whether in these uncertain times it's wise to buy in now, even though it was part of the original strategy to buy up third party, especially when prices are out of control. You know what, this is a really important question and I think I have probably answered it two to three times a day every single week in the last month. And I understand the concerns about, all right, am I buying at a price that's inflated and I'm going to lose my money in the long term. And that really comes down to two things. First of all, Confucius many thousands of years ago essentially said, when do you plant a tree 50 years ago or today? So we really want to make sure that you get the opportunity to have the time in the market and if you haven't done it already, get in as soon as possible. Now people do try to get a little bit clever and they do try to time the market. And when we look at time timing the market, the problem with that is that if you get it wrong, you get it really, really wrong. And really it comes down to trying to make money quickly. So you know, most of the people I work with, we're in this for the long term. We understand that if we do it right and we strategically buy in a good growth area, we maybe renovate to add value and create equity Then, you know, in 10 years time, if you've done it right, you've done it right. And it strikes me, you know, I had a call with one of my mentoring, past alumni mentoring students on Monday and we targeted an area with growth opportunities. We targeted a future cash flow potential for her. And you know, that was really around her being able to build a granny flat. But we gave her, you know, the circumstances and conditions for her to be able to do that. She needed to increase her income by $20,000 and, and she needed the property value to go up by $200,000. And we estimated on the growth trajectory of the suburb that we had purchased in with her that it would take about four years. And she came back on Monday and went, hello. It took two years, my pay's gone up and I'm ready to go. And you know, fantastic that that could happen so soon. But we made that purchase with the long term plan that she was going to hold it for 10 years and get to the stage where she could actually create the cash flow for it to pay for itself as well. So Susie, I take your question is a little bit of fear around, you know, is it possible for me to actually make money now if I get in now or will the market go down? My take on the market, and I'll get into the presentation a little bit later, is that there is some opportunity for people to make money now and in the next year, as you'll see, the major economists have uplifted what they were saying that the market will do. And they're saying that there's still going to be growth in my mind. And I'm looking at Australia as a bit of a sanctuary, even though we've got a little bit of dictatorial governance going on, that there will be a rush for people to come back to Australia. We did have on average 180,000 people migrate to Australia each year. They're talking about doubling that. And you know, that means that we will regain the population that we need. We're going to have that surplus of units possibly taken up for rents. The rents will go up and after a year of being in Australia, those people will qualify to be able to buy their own homes. And then in that following year, 2024, they'll be getting into the market and they will buy and then the market will go up again and there'll be more pricing pressure. So there may be some plateauing. I don't think it'll go backwards. 2023, you know, there will be some indication of rates, you know, being reviewed at that stage at the earliest according to rba. But I really think that, you know, we, we're on a trajectory of growth for a period of time. And if you're investing for the long term, I would say, Susie, get in now and, you know, optimize the wealth ahead. And if you can make $200,000 like that client in two years, fantastic. Let's just check out your other question there, Susie. Now I see some other questions coming, coming through, which is so fantastic. Please keep them up. I also see Paul and Zaman who are actually here. If you are here in the studio and you want me to bring you up so that we can actually ask questions, I will please hang around here. Otherwise, just hang out on the Facebook page and let us know. Susie, how long are you looking for? About six years. Got it. Oh, thank you, Jen. Fantastic. All right, let's move on to your next question. I know I've got a lot of questions today, so let's see where we're going with that. All right, so it's all about me. Let me hide my video. Do you believe the market will soften next year and will be advantageous to hold off? Same question, same answer. You know, I'm going to show you some of the experts. I'm not an economist. I just curate and curious observer of what's going on. Is Brisbane a good prospect to be able to buy something less pricey and reduce a bigger debt buying elsewhere? Thank you. Hope you're doing well. Thanks. Okay, so once again, really interesting question there, Susie. The let me think about this. Brisbane is a really interesting market and I think that there is a lot of opportunity for us to look at that market based on the median price being a lot lower than what you see it on the other eastern states. Having said that, I think Canberra's median is now higher than Melbourne's. You know, we've had incredible growth and trajectory in Hobart, Canberra, Sydney, Melbourne. In any other year, the growth that Melbourne has had a bit extraordinary, but it's still, you know, behind everyone else due to the number of lockdowns. And Brisbane has obviously that optimism around the election. The Games that are coming to Brisbane, however, they were given the Games based on the fact that there wasn't a lot of infrastructure and spend that was necessary, which is usually a stimulus that goes into before the games in different countries and what we've seen in the Olympics. So I think that there is some optimism. What's really interesting is what I'm observing now is the move to Queensland initially There were some lifestyle decisions around people from the eastern states moving to Queensland when Covid kind of hit and they're like, you know, I'm out of here. I'm actually seeing people making very political statements in their moves now. So they're making a statement that says that I'm not happy to be living under the rule that can restrict my freedoms easily. So if you look at what happened in Melbourne, once you get to 80% vaccinations, everyone's allowed out of lockdown in Queensland. To summarize it simply, if we don't get to 80% vaccinations, those people who aren't vaccinated go into lockdown. So a complete different way of doing things. Everyone has their own opinion on that. Having had a 14 year old son go back to school, school this week for just two days, having had 81 days locked at home with us, I know that, you know, there's a, there's a whole generation of kids out there, let alone their parents that you know, are doing things differently and we don't know what the ramifications of that is. Something that has come up this week, which I think is really a little something I'm sitting in and thinking about is two of my contacts, one of my clients have made a decision to split their family up and the mother and child have moved to Queensland and are renting based on the fact that they believe it'll be good for their mental and health reasons for their children, their young children in primary school and the father and the other kids are staying put in Sydney and Melbourne. This is something that I've never seen families split up for, you know, the good of one child so, so clearly demonstrated in separating these households so that, you know, children can thrive and it's only two people, so it's not statistically relevant information, but I'm just watching this and watching it with interest and yeah, I think their reason to move is a political statement of not being happy of how their children are growing. So should you buy in Brisbane? Roundabout question and answer there, Suzie. What I'm saying is I'm actually seeing another reason that people are starting to move to the Brisbane Sunshine coast, obviously and to some degree Gold coast, and exploring that as a, not just a lifestyle decision but a mental health and health decision for their families. So I believe the prices will continue to go up there. I think there's some still great opportunities. From one of my mentoring clients yesterday we talked around a 600,000 price point. We were looking at some suburbs in Geelong Looking at some suburbs in Melbourne and looking at some suburbs in Queen in Brisbane as well. So there are some opportunities that I think at a price point, you know, allow you to make a. A decision based on where your other properties are, the land tax exposure that you have. I think being geographically differentiated across different states and different land tax and stamp duty and policies and political, you know, responses and lockdowns is a good thing. You know, you would hate to have all your properties stuck in Melbourne with no opportunity for moving rents and taking less rent and not being able to sell, etc over the last two years. So, you know, this is another reason why I've been geographically differentiated. It's a really great thing. So I hope that serves you and helps you and yeah, Susie, thank you so much for your question. Now, Zaman, I see that you've got a question here too. I'm just gonna see. Are you. I can see that you're actually sitting here in the Be Live presentation, so I'm gonna see if I can show you in stream. And if you would like to ask your question live, if you've just clicked the link by mistake and don't want to, then that's fine. I can read your question out. But are you there? I'm going to unmute you. Are you there, Zamalan? Would you like to ask.

Yes.

Yay. Would you like to ask your question live?

Yeah, I had troubles getting onto the Facebook. I don't know if this is my first time actually, so I wasn't sure. Are we supposed to be able to see this stream on the Facebook page as well?

Yeah, if you go to the Facebook page where the post is that says, you know, we're gonna go live, it's actually live there.

Okay. I tried through Firefox and Google, you wouldn't play. So this was my only way to get in.

Well, you're in now. I can't see your wonderful face, but I'll let you go incognito for the moment. So. But I see you've got a question. How can I help you?

Yeah, I posted a question there already. So. My, my. I had a bit of a confusion in regards to, you know, a way where we can get away from stamp duty. I heard that you can have an options contract and where you could, say, get in and do some renovations and then after that on, sell it to the new buyer. And that way you can get away from paying stamp duty. I know in Queensland I believe you can do that, but I wasn't sure if you can do that in New South Wales as well, and just thought you might have an idea on that. I'm not expecting you to know, but I'm just saying if you have any.

It's a really good question. And as investors, we're always looking ways to optimize the way that we can invest, which means usually minimizing cost. When I started to invest way back in 2020, it was a tactic and a technique that some property educators would talk about, which is go in with an offer conditional to, or go in with a name on the contract, which was that you could be able to allocate it to someone else so you could sell it before it actually settled, maybe have a long settlement. And like you said, get in there and renovate different states, have different policies on that, and you're going to have to speak to the conveyances or the legal teams in those states. It definitely was a tactic. And I know that in a couple of states they really closed that loophole and it allowed you to. I mean, the cleverness was essentially you put your name on the contract as the purchaser and. Or nominee, and that meant that you can nominate the person that would actually settle the loan on the settlement date. And so it allowed you to maybe do the renovation in between and then on sell it. At this stage, I don't believe it's possible. But I haven't tested that and I haven't seen anyone use that technique or even talk about it for many years. But I'd encourage you to speak to your legal team about that.

Cool. Okay. So thanks for that. And I had a second question there as well, which I posted afterwards.

Let me know. Yeah, go on.

You may have answered this already, but I'm not sure. I just wanted to get your thoughts basically on interest rates, on where you think it's heading. It's probably a question that everybody wants to ask.

Exactly. There's a difficulty in talking about interest rates is because, you know, the RBA and how they set rates is kind of how the interest rate discussion is set. But the reality is, you know, that's just the exchange rate that the banks are buying the money for, essentially. And then it's up to the banks on how they want to put on their pricing or their margins or how they're anticipating the risk in the future or their exposure to certain markets. Now, I did see briefly, and I'm not too sure if I'm going to quote this correct or not, that ANZ came out today with a 62% profit over the last year, and they're Talking about the how much profit the banks have made. So obviously they're doing okay with their margins. What we have seen in the month of October is that APRA has stepped in with some concerns over how much activity is going on in the market. Now on one hand, if the RBA stepped in and put interest rates up, that would probably be a really stupid decision because they're going to try to kick start the economy, put money in the economy, get businesses to spend, borrow money so they can put more staff on. You know, this is something that's really going to help the economy. So if they all of a sudden put the rates up, you know, just as could cool the property market, it doesn't make sense. So that's why entities like APRA or the banks themselves step in and say, you know, how can we be really mindful of what is happening in this part of the market and how we can control it? So what APRA has done is they've said, look, when the banks are servicing how much you can borrow instead of servicing at 2.5% the interest rate you're going to pay. So there's some buffering there in case, case rates go up because let's face it, we should be taking 30 year loans. So it's not just about what's happening in the next two to three years. They want to make sure if the rates go up and they will one day, that we have a buffer of integrity of assessment. And as a mortgage broker, as a mortgage broker, put a little mortgage broking hat on. This is kind of one of the things that they, you know, we need to be mindful of. We have responsible lending requirements, not just as mortgage brokers but as banks to make sure that people don't overextend themselves. So CBA put their servicing rate up before even APRA stepped in and said, look, we, we think you should move 2.5 to 3%. Now the reality of this is it looks kind of good and the market looks, you know, there's a lot of media around, you know, the fact that people's borrowing capacity has gone down, they, they can borrow less based on this, but it's really only 5%. So it's not going to make a huge difference. And I've got a few slides a little later in the presentations. A man that indicates that we're nowhere near the kind of interest only and investment activity that made APRA in 2019 really step in and put in some really tight restrictions. However, I do look to New Zealand, funnily enough, 30 years behind in music but they're always six months ahead in finance and they have, you know, put in some LBR restrictions around Auckland in particular and you know, they have got a little bit tighter, they put rates up, you know, they're doing things that we are usually about six months later. So I've been you know, predicting from earlier this year that September, October this year that we would see some APRA restrictions come in. I was hoping I wasn't right. I was and. But I'm often wrong. So heads up to that too. But it's something that we need to be mindful of. What we have seen in the last two weeks is that some of the lenders have actually put their fixed rates up. So when their economists are trying to work out how they're going to make money in two to three years time, they're obviously betting or hedging that rates will go up at that stage. So we're starting to see some movement on rates. So don't just watch the RBA and what you read about the cash rate and every Tuesday after 2:00 clock when we get emails in our inbox that say rates on hold. RBA are definitely saying they're not looking at increasing rates until end of 2324 is what they're officially saying. But there is some indication that a lot of economists, economist thinks that will be late 23 but that doesn't necessarily mean that we will not have an increase in rates. The banks just determine that. So I hope that helps.

Thank you, thank you. Very informative information.

Yeah, no problem. Appreciate you coming on. Next time you can show your face too. I'm going to leave you in this area just so that you can still, still listen. But yeah, you'll be able to get to the recording and that's where most people, I know a lot of people can't do lunchtime on Thursdays. Most people watch this and recording. So you. We usually get you know, 10 to 20 people at lunchtime and then 200 to 300 people in the next week and go back and listen to all the other recordings for the previous month.

Yes, I'll try to find those. Yes, thank you very much.

Okay, all the best. Bye. And I think now Paul, I'm going to show you in stream too and just see if you wanted to ask a question. I'm not sure if you've got lost as well.

No, I've got you here.

Hey Paul, have you got a question?

First time. So thank you.

Pleasure.

Yeah my question was we have a unit in A city in Chippendale that we've had for some time. And I guess my question was just around your thoughts on whether it's better to sell a unit that has done well for us over the years before we need to pay capital gains with the intention to purchase another investment property or to hold onto it and use the equity to purchase another investment property. I think a question that needs to go with it is what are your thoughts on the inner city unit market over the next few years? Would probably go hand in hand with that question. No, that's our only one.

And when did you buy it?

2009.

And did you buy it new?

No.

And what was the strategy around the purchase?

It was initially just to live in and get on the ladder.

So it's like a home that got, then converted into an investment.

Yes, that's right.

Perfect. And you know what, that is how a lot of investors start, you know, they start with a home as the investment property of the future and without even planning for it. So a lot of strategic first home buyers these days are using all the grants, et cetera, to, to get on the ladder and buy their first investment property, leaving it to get all the grants. But a lot of people who have a home and then go to upgrade think, well, why don't I just keep it? I can afford both. And this is where the trouble gets into. It really depends on what your long term goal is. So if your long term goal is to create a passive income of $100,000 a year by having $2 million in a bank account earning 5%, then you're going to have to get, you know what, two and a half or $3 million. And I'll just show you where you can find that, a little calculator to help you calculate that. Actually, I created one now that I think about it. Let me just show you. Start video. I have all three of us here and I'll go solo on this one. Okay, so if you go to my website, obviously I had my hair and makeup done that day. Go to resources and you go to calculators. I've got this calculate calculator here that it kind of allows you to work out, you know, how many properties you need to get to the goal that you want to get to. And you know, just to say, you know, you have a passive income goal of $75,000 a year, you want to achieve that. That's a big number. You want to achieve that in 10 years. You know, you are a good astute investor and you believe that if you can invest money, you could get a 5% return. You make an estimate on inflation, your tax rate, selling costs, et cetera. If you go to through that and you calculate this, it essentially says that $75,000. Can you see this? Okay, yes. $75,000 today in today's dollars based on inflation is about 96,000 in 10 years time, which means you're going to have to have 1.9 million in the bank. And when we look at the portfolio, it kind of says, well, if you had a portfolio of $4.3 million in 10 years time, you sold it, you paid your capital gains tax, then you're going to be able to put the 1.9 in your bank. So to achieve your current portfolio goal, if you had $2.2 million worth of properties, that is so what I've said here is each Property is worth $450,000, your estimate of growth, etc. If you had $2.2 million with the properties, then with a 7% growth, you could achieve that outcome. So this is the question, is your property a portfolio killer or not? And that really comes down to are you going to get the growth with a property that is eating up your borrowing capacity now for the future. So Chippendale is a really interesting market. I've got a little terrace in Darlington that I bought in 2002 and I was really conscious and worried when all of the units went up around Chippendale. I was like, oh my gosh, they're going to take all of my tenants. So for me that was a really big concern that I had to kind of be mindful of. And when we're looking at the moment at where the unit market is in Sydney and all the concerns around the cladding, we've got vacancy rates really high. It is a worry. So I would usually get stuck into trying to find, let me see if I can do this. Trying to find some information that about the actual units. So you know how I said there's some really great new websites etc and information that's out that we can use. Suburb trends.com it's changing every day because I know Kent Lardner, who's putting this together, is trying to optimize it and fix it up, but go to wherever it clicks on the day that says suburb map and kill my video so that you can see this put in Chippendale what I really like. And Kent was one of the original owners of Price finder, worked for CoreLogic. He's, you know, got a lot of data integrity. This is the only place that I can actually see this type of lead indicators, which is around inventory. Now there's a whole methodology around inventory and how that works. But what this means is that if there is 48 listings on the market at the moment and no more listings come on the market, how many months would it take for all of that inventory to be eaten up? And this is over six months. So this is telling me that there's very few units that are actually selling per year. If I go back and have a look at 12 months ago, it was 10. So it's getting better. Right. So it's down to 6.4 now. But the forecast for the next 12 months is 7 now under 5 pretty much indicates that, you know, the market, there's some movement in the market. When we're going from a 6.4 up to a 7.4, this tells me that the prices are probably going to drop. So when I'm looking at the reverse of that, I'm actually looking at an area where prices are going to start going up. Does that, does that make sense what I'm saying so far? Yeah, it does.

Yeah, it's very interesting.

So when I kind of then go over to this unit market and get a feel for what's going on and how many listings are out there? A thousand listings. So I'm looking at this and going, this is not. This is a lot of competition out there. If I look at the rental market itself, you know, the rents, you know, luckily are kind of staying a little stable, which is good. The vacancy rates, where would I see vacancy rates? Let me think about this. Actually, I just go straight to SQM Research to be honest. Oh, actually, you know what I'm going to do? I'm going to pull over SQM Research here because. This is a brand new product that SQM research has. It's 2008, isn't it? The postcode.

Yes, that's right. For juvenile.

Seems not to be working. Postcode snapshot. Let's just have a look at this. Nope. Oh goodness. Best laid plans and all. Right, let me have a look at my account first. Code snapshot 2008, not allowing me to put a number in there. So let's have a look at, see if this works out. All right, so pulling around what's happening in the area. So if I'm looking at units, huge amount of units, right. Being listed on the market. If I'm looking at the vacancy rates, you know, we're over 4%. We were up to 8%. So this is Good. But it's going up again. And what this tells me is that there's a large amount of properties, there's more properties on the, the market at the moment to rent, then there is people who want to live there. So this is, this is not a good indicator. So what we have now is we've got some indications here around this inventory number that we're seeing that's, you know, not positive when it's looking at, you know, it's going to go up, which is going to put pricing pressure on, going down. And now I'm seeing vacancy rates saying, you know, if your property becomes untenantable, will you be able to get a tenant? There's going to be a lot of competition. So what that would say to me is this is probably something that you need to consider, you know, really quite seriously, and just if your next step is to build your property portfolio and this is eating up your borrowing capacity, then consider, you know, that it might be something that you do, you know, get rid of so that you can move on to an area that has better growth and, you know, reduced rental risk for yourself.

Yeah, that's great. Thank you very much, Jane.

Appreciate that. Okay, no problem. Well, thank you for joining. Thank you. Okay, I'm going to hide you down. Okay, so good questions, guys. Really appreciate the questions that are being asked. I'm just going to do a quick little check and make sure that I've got. Yep, a few. Okay. I think I've answered all the questions that are there for the moment and great. I've got. So that was Paul Lambert. I've got a Paul Gump. No, he's not asking questions, so we'll move on. Okay, so let me just share my screen once again and jump back into this presentation because I've got so much to tell you about. Oh, here we go. Susie's got another question. With restrictions and not being able to fly to view a property such as Brisbane, what's your advice as to buying without seeing property? Do you suggest a buyer's agent? Look, I can't tell you enough how beneficial it is to have a buyer's agent working in your interest at the moment. In this fast moving market, if you can get out and see a property maybe, you know, once, once a week, then, you know, that's great. But if you are remote, it's going to be so super hard. So, you know, buying without a buyer's agent I think is really difficult. There are some other ways that you can get people on your side and buying for you full disclosure. I'm an advisor on a company called Realify and Realify has been assisting people in particularly the Sydney market in looking at being able to. And they're doing beta testing at the moment but they've been looking at assisting people in. Let me just show you that. Assisting people in being able to get into the market and having basically getting real estate agents out there and working for them. So there's a number of really innovative new disruptives that are working in the real estate space that you know, might just be something that you want to consider. But buyer's agent, I would, you know, they're worth their money just on the negotiation and at the moment they're worth their money on getting you into properties. And I've had some of my mentoring students just this year in this very, very fast market actually have properties presented to them through their buyer's agents and their contacts with real estate agents that are off market and haven't actually hit the market as yet. And that with the hot market it's really hard. So I'd really encourage you to consider that. So I hope that helps. Once again, thanks, Susie. Okay, so I love things. Have some claps and some love here guys. I hope that this is a being service to you. Now I'm going to jump back over onto. I do want to show you actually whilst I was jumping into SQM research over there, I just want to show you something that's delighted me recently and that is the SQM research new portal. Now I do have early access to this so I know that not everyone has access to this but I really want to be able to show you what this could be like because you know that I like information and I like sharing and this is a way that I think that we can actually find some really cool information and be able to use it. So we just had a little quick little look at that snapshot of the property. How about we find a property that is on the market at the moment? Let me find one that is on the market at the moment. Where shall we look? Anyone have any particular areas that they are keen for me to have a look at or a particular property? Cheers. Guildford. So let's go to Guildford where you use the main. Central coast. New south wales. Yep, central coast. Happy to do. Central coast. Give me it. Give me a town. Gosford. Anywhere else and go Gosford. Terry Ghoul, I'm waiting for you to give me something here. Okay, let's just choose somewhere. Don't look at units, don't look at Units, don't look at units. Let's filter houses. Okay, so let's just get something that looks like a typical type of house. That looks pretty typical, doesn't it? 9 Compton Street, North Gosford, guided 800. So let's just go in here and have a look at 9 Gosh, Compton Street. In North Cosford. Now there's a couple of things that I really like about. As I said, I'm a beta tester here. So it's all new. So some of the things I like about this. First of all, it gives a price range. Now obviously this is a whole lot different to what these guys are talking about, guys of 800,000. So we need to be mindful of the fact that what we would expect and possibly this is what 9 Compton Street, North Gosford. I'm going to show you a couple of different ways that we can use some of this data. At the moment. I think the new SQM data information is going to be very similar to this, about $150 a month. Now here's the thing with this is that at the moment RP data and beginning in the beginning of November is actually going to launch this new look RP data. One of the things that I think is really clever about this new look RP data is that you don't have to go and do a valuation report. It actually just pops up for you on the address. We do have some of the functionality so it's saying around 700,000. So you can see here there's some real differentials that start coming up. Now one of the things that I really like doing is if you can see here this date, October 21st. So this is how the property looks at the moment. So we get a little idea. It's got a fireplace, old carpet, it's got a fan, it's got a dated kitchen, It's got a, you know, updated bathroom. Nothing really fancy but what you find and I usually just start here and go backwards. May 04 so it hasn't sold for many a year. Interesting, isn't it? Hasn't sold in theory in many a year. And it is allows, this allows us to see if there's been any renovations done or any improvements because often what will happen is the valuation that we get is actually based on the fact that it was sold and then renovated and the data is based on the sold price and then all of the comparables then used with the growth in that period of time since it's been sold and that's what is applied to it. So it never takes renovations into account. So what we can see here is the Median here is 800,000. We've got valuation estimate here at 700,000. We can see there was a couple of like a sneaky little sales that went on here, which would seem to me that, you know, Scarlett, who owned this, has done some interesting kind of sales to self or, you know, divorce sales or whatever. But what I really like about this information and the new SQM research property reports is you can go back and you can have a look at what that valuation would be for, you know, when it was a year ago. So you can see here the current valuation is really, this is not a great example. Obviously looks like it's going down. And then two years ago you can go back and have a look at what that valuation was two years ago. So what I would say here is that there's something a bit skew with their numbers, but those valuations indicated that it was quite high. We've got a great rental return and rental estimate. So here's the good stuff. One of the things that I kind of like is this segmentation around the property value. So how much per bedroom are we actually expecting to see those properties go for? Now, it's always kind of nice to have a look at information. For instance, when I have a look at the segmentation tool in suburb trends, it gives me an idea that if they tell me the median house price is 1.6 million, if I've got, you know, here, 1.4 to 1.6 million, there's what, 13% of properties in that? There's 30 between 1.6 and 1.8 and another 13%, 1.8, 1.2. So when I'm looking in here and saying the median price is 1.6, can I really find a property worth 1.6 if there's so many properties above that, especially the 1.6 to 1.8, 30%, the answer is you're probably not going to get something for 1.6. But that doesn't tell us per bedroom. But what I like about SQM research is it starts to tell us per bedroom and one of the other benefits that you will find in say, domain. For instance, with suburb profiles, when we go into Gosford north, what it will do is actually give us a breakdown per bedroom as well, what that median should look like. So this is where you can kind of start pulling the free data together. So I do really like this. I like the fact that there's a lot of information around the catchment zones and you know, the different types of schools in the area as well. I think this is, you know, obviously this is a bit of a beta, but I'm really enjoying playing with these new products. The suburb trends, the SQM Research, new SQM Property Explorer and the new RP data as well. So just a little bit of information on some of the new things that we're seeing there. See if I can use this on.

A.

My account suburb. So just for instance, someone there has said toon bay. So let's just throw toon bay. This is this weird thing in here right to wound Bay. What is twin bay? Okay, toon bay. Let's get an idea of where this is. And it is 2261. So let's go to 2261. The other thing I was going to mention about this SQM research information that I like is I usually end up buying the boom and bust report every November from SQM research. And what I found is that it, what I found is that it actually allows us to have that information as part of the snapshot. So when we're looking at this, this boom and bust data that they actually, you know, you go and buy a report on this is actually coming up in the postcode information, which is interesting. Now I'm always looking, when I'm looking for my clients, obviously I'm not a buyer's agent, so when I'm saying I'm assisting them in what they're looking at, when I pull this data up, I'm always looking at kind of three and a half and above just to get an indication of what's happening. But often what happens is that some of these kind of more regional areas, something like a walkability score brings it down. So just be aware of a number is a number, but then understand, understand what's behind the mark, behind the numbers. Days on market score are high, which just means that there's probably a lot of activity at the moment there. Vacancy rates means high, vacancy rates are low. So this is an area that has a lot of activity that's happening. So imagine we're looking at houses. We're starting to get the listing houses coming up. It's not as big as it used to be, which may be the fact that there was some new development activity in the last 30 days of properties coming on, but well below that 3% kind of equilibrium mark here for vacancy rate. So if you're going to put your property up to rent and it's the typical property in demand, then it's most prospecting going to Rent quickly, rental listings. So we've got pressure here on the house Rental listings we can see here. So they're really low as well. And there's so many things here. Days on market. I find this interesting because. So it's like how the postcode compares to the area of the Central coast and then the state. So you can see here there's a lot more activity happening here than the rest of the Central Coast. Days on market. So it's selling quicker. Asking price, they give you an indication of what's happening. We're seeing the property prices, houses going up, the three bedroom houses going up as well. We're seeing units coming down and we usually can have a look here at the rolling averages of what's really happening in that area. Over the last 10 years, you know, property prices have gone up by 8%. It's interesting. Also here they split out the typical property. Sorry, I'm just going to have to get a drink. The typical property. And you'll see that the price between all houses and that typical property gives you a bit of an indication of what's really happening in the market. I never look at week on week data or month data because it's really, you know, can be skewed by one or two sales. But you can see here, it's actually really great information. And what I like about this is it compares all of the last five census data as well. So it gives us an idea of what's happening in postcode when it comes to population change. So it's still a growing population, which is great to see. We've got incomes going up, which is great to see. And we've got some stability around the number of houses as well in the area. So it's not like there's been this huge development that's. Come on. I do like this. This is like one of my favorite things. Just because I like data. I hope you guys do too. But it goes all the way back. So here we've got 51 years of number of sales and the reported medians and the growth for the year. Look at that, 70% growth. Wouldn't you be happy that year? Lows and highs. Now I love this as well because I have probably shown you in previous tutorials on how to actually find out what the typical block size is. This actually tells us the typical block size. Imagine if I did this on like Point Cook. I'd see with all the new developments, you know, there was quite high. And then when the newer developments came in, they split the blocks and they Dropped a bit. So you know, this is interesting, gives us an idea of some of the recent sales as well. So I just think this is a really good report. This is how I hacked the system previously to try to find out what the typical block size is. This is the sales over the last year and I can see then when I look at the houses that it's somewhere between 400 and 800 square square meters. Obviously they've taken that median of 600. So when I'm in like RP data and I'm doing an analysis on the suburb, I actually were looking at houses that the typical houses invariably usually three bedroom houses between 4 and 800 square meters when I'm actually defining my searches, private treaties, 87% so you get an idea of how you're going to interact in the market as well. So I think this is all really good data and really very helpful. So hopefully you think so too because I do. So let's just move on. I want to give you some really quick. I know we've probably only got three minutes left but hey, I've got like 30 slides to share with you. I wanted to share with you just some of you know what's happening in the market, give you a bit of a context of what I'm seeing occurring, giving you some of the economic updates as well. So let me just push through with that for those of you who have to go, goodbye. And for those of you who are going to be watching this a bit later. Hang in there. Okay, so I want to give you first of all some information on what the economists are talking about with property growth for next year. Now if you can think about this and it's just so funny if you said that you had a 7% capital growth, the rule of 72 essentially says that in 10 years time 72 divided by 7 in 10 years time your property will double in value. And it's really quite funny when we are looking at, you know, these kind of city forecasts and some of the numbers that have come through now these are some of the numbers that have, that have come through that are just indicating until the end of the year what they're expecting the market to do. But I'm seeing some of the forecasts that have come through and I think the most recent one was from amp Shane Oliver who said we've increased our 2022 growth from 5% to 7% per annum. And you know the, I think the words was something like the conservative 7% per annum and it had to make me giggle because if you look at the last 10 years of capital growth in Brisbane, it hasn't got more than 2.3%. And he was saying 7% is kind of conservative. And that's because in the last year we've been doing it like 20%. So it's been. We have to put this in context of what it really means. That is, properties are going up in value and they're going to go up only by maybe 7% next year. But that 7% is significant when you think about it in context of what we've seen in the last 10 years. Let's just have a look at what is happening in the market at the moment as well. So the strange dwelling prices values, you know, when we're looking at. Let me see if I can turn my video off. When we're looking at the market, we're looking at the dwelling markets in the property markets in the last three months have gone up by 4.8%. When we're talking dwelling market, we're talking apartments and houses. So just be aware of when they're doing that. That's what they're talking about. The other thing that we're seeing is the high end of the market always leads growth. And in the last three months to September, the top 25% of values across the capital cities rose 5.7. So, you know, we know that high end of the market moves first. It's still moving is what you need to take from that. I wanted to give you some context now. I'm just not sure why I can't turn my thing off here. Let me just see if I can. Get this working again. And if not, Okay, let's just see if you guys can see this again and is it working again? Had a moment of trouble. So if you could just let me know that you can see this screen, that'd be great. I just wanted to show you, you know, where we are across the rest of the world in context of the kind of growth that we had now. This was like June quarter. As you can see, there's some substantial growth that's going on at the moment. And when we're talking about, you know, this kind of 20% in the last 12 months, we are now very much catching up to where New Zealand is. So I think that's, you know, really interesting in seeing how, how that is appearing in the market as well. Let me just. I just want to make sure that I am coming through loud and clear. If you guys can just, just let me know. Be much appreciated so that I Can continue. Let me just have a look if anyone. Ah, it's working. Thank you. All right. Okay. So let's just have a quick little look at this. I think, you know, all the information that I'm seeing is things are all, you know, going well. Thanks, guys. Appreciate it. And this, what we're seeing at the moment is household wealth has really continued to increase. And you can see here, the average net worth per capita in Australia increased by 20% from a year ago. So stocks rebounded, super balances swell, Property market surged. Our bank account surged because we had nothing to spend our money on and we didn't go overseas or on holidays. Household wealth now is around $13 trillion. Most of our wealth is held in homes and in our properties. So you can see here, over the last 20 years, our wealth has gone from under 200,000 to above 400,000. This is a really positive outcome when I'm looking at the market itself. This is a news release that came out a couple weeks ago around first home buyers. What's really exciting here is one in the first, one in ten of all first home buyers actually use the first home loan deposit scheme or the new home guarantee. It allowed so many people to get into the market, which is really exciting. What we're starting to see now is there's pricing pressure and affordability issues that is starting to really, you know, create a bit of problems for people to get into the market. So this is a really interesting report on where people are spending their. Where the first time buyers are and the activity as well. This is from Anz, and this is another really good report that kind of looks over, you know, the last 17 years or so, seven years or so, and just looks at, you know, where we have had some ups and downs. And this is kind of like the consumer optimism report. You know, what's made us happy and what's made us sad. And as you can see here, you know, this. We kind of came off the back of the bushfires and our optimism level was not huge. It really tanked. And then we started. We hit with COVID but you can see now we're actually getting up over to the average that we've had since 1990. And then it's. It came down again when we had our second lockdown and now it's coming up again. So optimism around financial optimism is actually consumer optimism. It's really good. I wanted to just show also is when we're looking at the macro, this is another report from Anz, but the macro kind of position of households We've actually had quite a significant decrease as well in where there was vulnerable households where the loan to income ratio was above six and you know, they had less than one one month of prepayments on their loans. So this is actually a really good indication when we're having a look also about how we sit with the rest of the world with debt. You know, you can see our household debt is quite high, but it's not the highest. And you know, there, there has been obviously some changes as you can see down here. Accra and we discussed earlier has change their serviceability, three month changes. So this is just giving us a context, 312 month kind of look at what's happening in the market. As I said, you know, Australia is still increasing in their, their dwelling rates. I really think that we're going to start seeing Darwin go backwards. I think that most of the capital cities will return to what they used to do and when, when things kind of calm down a little bit and the long term averages and we can see here that things are just starting to turn a little bit as well. In the 12 months, obviously there's been a huge kick and we've definitely seen like a huge growth in the market. Melbourne down here has been languishing due to the extensive lockdowns that they've had. The capital city market, now this is that where they referenced, you know, it's the highest 20% of values that they kind of lead the market. And you know, we kind of watch the high end of the market move first and then the rest of the markets come through. And you can see here, you know, pretty much across most of the markets, we've got some real indicators that, that show that that's what's happening. Hobart and Darwin have got the lower end of the market leading here and that's really interesting because, you know, Hobart in particular has had some fantastic growth as we can see over the last year, really out outperforming everything else. And that would have been led potentially by the higher end of the market and then the rest of the market follows. So it's actually probably a bit more mature than the rest of the markets as to where it is in its growth cycle, which to me would mean that we probably are going to expect to see that the growth come off in Hobart. This is just around how many properties are actually on the market. So the total listings in Melbourne for instance, 28,000 new listings this month, 11,000 total listings in Sydney, 20,000 in the last month, 8,000 total listings, 13,000. So it really Gives you an indication of what's happening here in the market and the number of listings that are coming on. What's really interesting here is, you know, Darwin, as we can see, there's been some extraordinary kind of listings that have come onto the market as well. Rental yields only pull this up because you need to be mindful when you're doing your investing what kind of yields that you're going to expect from the market. We had a bit of a conversation about Darwin. Long term hasn't been a great growth area. There definitely seems to be some real pricing pressure on listings at the moment for rents as well. So they're really stepping out and we can see that, you know, if you're paying an interest rate of 2% and your rental returns are 252 8, you're probably paying a little bit out of your pocket. But if they're up around the fours, you know, you're probably in the positive cash flow kind of realms, which is great. I just wanted to put this up here to give you an indication owner occupied investors. What we're kind of seeing is the typical interest rates at the moment as well. Having said that, there's always, you know, some, some outliers either side. Based on your current lending, it may or may not be that you are able to get in with the lenders that have got a one in front of them number or you might be up with lenders with a 3 in front of the number because of the particular policies that you have to comply with and those lenders allow you to have through August, combined value of lending for the purchase of housing fell. So we're starting to see a little bit of a coming off of the lending. You know, if anyone's been talking to mortgage brokers and banks out there, we know that there has been some constraints on the lenders on, you know, turnaround times. Even to the extent that most of them aren't doing full pre approvals now. It's just like a tick and flick approval which you know, has led some people to be in a bit of trouble when they have gone to purchase and there's been a full assessment done. I do know that there's a lot of people in Brisbane, for instance, who are now being almost forced to buy without a finance clause because it's the conditions that are getting them the property just because there's so much heat in the market. And that's something you really should speak to your broker or bank about when they talk to you about having a pre approval, making sure that they Know that you're going in without a finance clause because it might just be that you're left holding that property and having difficulty getting lending new portion of investment housing lending. It's still not, you know, right up here around this 35%. So you know, it's not a large amount. And the reason I bring that up is that you know, we know that it's been this kind of, you know, when debt to income ratio is greater than 6. The banks have now said that they're, you know, putting this extra buffer in. This is the indicator that they're looking at the moment. But you know, when we look long term and have a look at what has been happening long term, you know, what we do know is over the years is when owner occupiers had interest only loans that were quite high and there was a lot of investors in the market then that was when there was a bit of an apostood in and we're not seeing that right at this moment. Financial review, you know, as I said, New Zealand put their official interest rates up a bit. Our RBA is still talking about 2024 in doing that. There is some estimate that they might actually go up earlier than that. But this is just something to watch. But as you can see our household debt is actually coming down but house prices are going up. So this is something that we need to watch. I wanted to get a view also of what is happening in the market because the biggest employers in the market are our self employed, not self employed, our small businesses in Australia. And Banjo, which is a small business lending, did a bit of a survey and I found this really interesting that you know, 72% of small business really, you know, were restricted during COVID but this amazing amount of optimism out there about what's happening in the coming year. And when I looked at this and you know, where they thought that their income would come from, you know, in 2021-22 there's still this amazing optimism. About 69% of them expect to increase their revenue over the next 12 months. When their revenue increases, they start employing people and we've already at an amazing unemployment rate that wasn't expected that we would come out of COVID with and you know, the jobkeeper, the job saver, the job seeker, all of those incentives have really assisted us and you know, 46% in the next 12 months are going to increase headcounts. So this is just a different data source that you probably are not going to see normally. But I think it's really important and as always, you know, I love just jumping into seeing what's happening in the property clock. I encourage you to join Heron Todd White's valuers newsletter every month. See what's happening. The ones that are in yellow are the ones that have moved from a previous stage. So you can see here Newcastle was in a rising market. It's now approaching the peak across according to Heron Todd White. So there's really, you know, there's still a lot of rise in the Australian property market which is great to see and just reminder I know that I covered this last month but you know they're usually. Spring is usually the fighting period of time in the Australian property market where people get out there and start slogging it out to find a property and get into the market. You know we saw last year with the, the shutdowns, especially in Melbourne that that kind of spring season did not stop and went through from Christmas, January, February, Victoria, you know, as of the end of October should pretty much be out of significant restrictions and I imagine that we're going to start seeing that that market's going to bounce back again. So you know, watch this space. So that's, that's kind of where I am for the month and my, my thoughts, you know, as I said, interest rates may go up a little bit with the fixed rates with the, the lenders, there's still optimism. The economists are still talking about 2022 being a growth year should you buy, buy strategically. You know there's research I've shared with you three new ways of getting the data and the information. But you know, as we know there's a, it's a really hot market. It is hard to get out and into the market. You know, if you need to have professionals to assist you like buyer's agents, I really encourage you to, to do that and check out, you know, suburb trends and SQM's new Postcode Explorer and all their reports and hopefully we will get some comments from Louis next month when he puts out his boom and bust report for 2022. So yeah guys, I hope that the run to Christmas is a good one for you. We'll chat to you the end of November, the last Thursday of November at 12:30 and I'll give you update on what's happening in the market, answer your questions and as always, you know, support each other in the your property success club. As you know I jump in and out and help answer questions. I'm seeing some polls going there at the moment about you know, whether you should leave an area for a dishwasher or laundry sinks and things. So, yeah, it's really great to be able to get everyone's collective wisdom on things like that. And yeah, it's great to see the community thriving. And thank you so much for those that have joined the community this month in particular, we have raised an extra $1300 this month for Kids Helpline, which is extraordinary. And I've had the opportunity this month also to give a talk to the, to picka, the Property Investors Council of Australia. I really encourage you to show you, encourage you to go and join PICA. You know, it's $5, which is just amazing. And you know, they have some really incredible research and analysis, but $5 a year or $20 for five years or something. You know, they're the advocates that are out there talking about, you know, stamp duty and all of these things that we need to be mindful of that. And we need advocates on our side in Parliament and talking about these kind of things. And if you go and jump in, obviously you don't want to see my profile, but if you want to go in and jump in and have a look at the member events, I did a talk there just recently and, you know, I have no idea where it is, but I'm sure you can find it if you have a look. Why join? Why are you here? Your profile, whatever, but go in and check it out because they really have done some great things. And I had a chat this month with Kieran, who's on the board. And the first part I talked about renovation. And the second part I had a chance to, to talk about how I have seen successful investors and the mindsets that they have operate with what I've had been doing and collectively working with them for over 15 years. And some interesting conversations we had, which I might even share with you next month. But anyhow, as always, it's all good to see you guys and speak to you and thank you for those of you, Paul and Zaman, who came on and actually asked a question live. It's always easier to get the information out live. And look, I really encourage you to, you know, watch what's happening in the market. Go and see, you know, where, you know, where you can potentially take this opportunity to grow your wealth in a really strategic and secure way for the future. So great. And thanks, James. I love it when people put their names in. Thanks for clicking the link and thanks for being part of this. And as you know, and as always, as you know, here's to your property success. I hope you have a great month, and I look forward to talking to you soon. Bye, guys.