Your Property Success Mentor Call October 29-10-2020

Hello. Hello, everyone. It is Jane. Here it is, your Property Success Club and the masks are off. In Melbourne, we are allowed to be out of lockdown. Now, before we get going, I am really keen to make sure we've got people who can see me and hear me. John won't be joining us today, so let's help me out as much as possible here. Now, I see we've got someone who's already popped in and used the guest link, which is great to ask their question. So we'll get over to you in a moment, Trevor, but just for the moment, whilst everyone is there, let me know if you can hear me and if you can see me and if I'm coming through loud and clear on the your Property Success Club page. So whilst we're doing that, I'll give you a little bit of an update on what's happening here. So. So, as always, we've been running these now for over eight years monthly and hardly missed a beat. And as a lot of people say, when they go back and have a look at the recordings of the youe Property Success Club, they've got a lot of value out of those and that we've got, you know, a lot of information that we can share with you and, you know, this is your chance as members of the club to come in here, ask some questions live every single month and get the benefit of that. So thanks for letting me know that there's people on there that are watching. It's good to see that we are live. Thanks, Teresa. So now let me just give the disclaimer out of the way. I'm not a real estate agent, financial planner or accountant. This information is here purely for your assistance and help. And if you do want to join me on screen and show your face, I would love that. So I don't just keep chatting to myself and no one. And you can do that by clicking on that guest link and come on and ask your question live. But if you have another question this month no one has sent any additional questions through. I am more than happy to take questions as you type them in. So you know what a huge month this has been. There has just been so many things that have been out there happening and I think the most interesting thing for me is that every single time we have a doom and gloom, let's what, watch what is happening in the market. As I discussed last month, there's another piece of information that says, oh, my goodness, the cliff that we were going to fall off when jobkeeper was reduced didn't Happen. The resilience of the market is amazing. And the huge drops of 2015, 20, 25% in the market that were expected have all been downgraded to 5 to 10%. With the big banks, we just have this underlying resilience. And I have to say, you know, as of midnight on Tuesday night in Melbourne, we were all pretty much released from lockdown within 25km. But it allowed us to, you know, kind of get back to some degree of normality. You know, bunnings and office work were the two big choices for me to visit my go to happy places. But I even wandered around this morning, jumped into Big W to pick up some socks and jocks. The family are out and it was just so nice to actually have a vibe and feel that we're getting back to a new normal. I have to say, for all of you in other states who've had that normal for a period of time, we were getting a little bit jealous in seeing you out there having drinks and meeting up with friends. So what is great about this is, you know, Victoria represents, you know, 30% of the economy, 30% of the money and infrastructure and all the spending and, you know, sentiment kind of information that is published and, you know, that's a huge amount of our economy added to the 30% in Sydney. You know, we really are the drivers of the economy and that's not taking anything from everyone who lives regionally. I grew up in Dubbo, I get it, and those that are in other states, but the fact of the matter is that when the two biggest economies are starting to rebound, then we are in a really good spot. Now I have had the opportunity once a quarter I spend a day with my mentoring students and we did that two weeks ago and really pulled apart a lot about what was happening in the market and where things have been now. I've had them on a wait and see hold since April and, you know, everyone is back in the market and, you know, a bit of the information that I shared with them I'm going to share with you a little bit today because I want to give you the resources and the tools and confidence and clarity so that you can actually take some steps and look in the market. So good to see a number of you here. If you do have a question, please, you know, just type it in and we will get going. And let me know if you know you. Where, where are you? There's some people here who are based in Melbourne and happy to be out. And for those of you who want to come on live and ask a question. Please do so. You know, it's great to see so much activity in the club now. I do. I see, Mandy, you've joined. Trevor's dropped off. Maybe he clicked the wrong link. Mandy, if you've got a question, what I might do is bring you on and let you ask. So nod if you would like to ask a question live. I think she's going to nod. Don't want to put people up there if they don't want their faces seen. Hey Mandy, how you going? Oh, you're on mute. The most commonly told things for all of 2020. Hey Mandy, did you have a question?

Just want to know, what's your view on commercial property? Do you have any commercial in your portfolio?

Yeah, look, it's a really good question. Do you have, do you have commercial in your portfolio at the moment?

I got two resident and I'm thinking to purchase commercial into my sms. So I'm looking to that for into commercial. I want to get your view on commercial.

Sure. Look, I am not. I don't have commercial property in my portfolio and it's something that I haven't studied or done a lot of research on. However, you know, the low risk kind of investing strategies and filters that I use are things that I'd encourage you to consider. So, you know, when we start looking at a suburb to invest in for residential investment, we look at what the in demand type property is. So one of the biggest risks that I see for commercial at the moment is, you know, what that in demand property is. And you know, there's been so many commercial or retail warehousing type properties, office spaces that generally go under commercial risks that we've seen with COVID you know, no one expected Covid, but the effects on that with those kind of commercial, you know, retail spaces and office spaces are quite considerable. I know. You know, for my personal office space, for instance, you know, my landlord came back and said, you know, we'll reduce your rent. And they did so nicely by 30% up until last month and they said, we're going to start putting it up again. I gave them, you know, indication that I probably don't need all of my offices going forward. And they've come back with a very incentified offer for me to keep that space. Now they're obviously hurting. A 30% reduction is a big problem in my mortgage. If I put on my mortgage broken hat. Where's my mortgage broken hat. If I put on my mortgage broken hat and talk about it. I've had a couple of Clients and we've written a couple of commercial deals. We usually give that to commercial experts. But over the last 15 years I've been involved with current clients who have looked at going commercially and some of them bought retail in Noosa and then that collapsed and they had a vacant place for five years. The risks associated with commercial lending is usually they're term based loans. So you don't usually get the 20 or 30 year loan. It might be a five year loan and they can renew it. So if they do a valuation based on which is often how they do it, the rental return, then what can happen is they say, well you know, the rents have dropped or you don't have a tenant in there at the moment and therefore we're going to call the loan in or the valuation is less, so you have to put money in. So commercial has always been something that's been attractive to people, especially when they get bored with residential lending. They're kind of like, I'm kind of cracked this, I've got it, it's not exciting anymore, you know, and then you start listening about commercial lending and it's things like they're going to pay all the outgoings and you know, the returns 10% and you start peeling all these stories. The downside is that you may have a tenant that moves out and you could have a long period of vacancies. I think office spaces are going to be reconsidered in the future. A lot of companies are leaving the office space for requirements. And I just spoke to a buyer's agent this morning that he'd been picking up deals for people and one of his people that he'd purchased for, you know, the company said you only need to come into two days a week. So he's like, yeah, want to live near the coast. So I think from a commercial point of view, although there always seems to be more rewards and it kind of makes sense, you know, when you're thinking self managed super fund, you know, a lot of people consider that. I just urge you to just overlay those kind of low risk filters that we have. You know, what's the most in demand needed type of property. I know some people have done really well buying retail kind of strips of shops in, you know, not regional but outer suburb areas but you know, they've been closed down, you know, and felt the effect of COVID So I just, I'm not an expert in commercial property but my experience has seen that the people who've gone into it have not always had a great experience and Those who have you're going to hear about. So you know that would be my thoughts on that.

Yeah I know that's one thing I'm sort of charity causes. I'm sort of. Yes. And now you know like everything you invest always have the pro and con. Because I was thinking to have a diverse portfolio I was thinking to get a resident and commercial as well. To have the two balance as well. Because I do looking to getting a resident meaning buy a good resident property and to look like a manager factory grow to do get something into renovation to getting the growth from that one aspect of that. And the one thing as you're saying with commercial because as the net yield is so also promising thing with that. Because you don't have to worry about the ongoing cost. And because one aspect I was worrying about the capital growth. And then a lot of the people present that you. You can have both you can have the net returning. They always give you a capital growth and well and then because they give you 3% of. Although you always get 20% of increment grow every year in in the part of commercial. And that's when I'm kind of bit stuck what to do not sure. And I'm sort of trying to deciding. So that's why I'm released because I know that you buy a bit. I'm planning to get engaged to getting the buy agent as well. But I won't be doing myself to getting the public more specialty in there. So what I expect because I know with the COVID now I don't know it's a good time to buy now. Because even you buy commercial you buy the right one like you stay away others the relative not the office. But you buy into like. Like now more popular warehouse or medical thing. So my biggest concern as well even those because of commercial the lending is quite high. You look at 6% and then they say you get a net return of say that 7 or 8. So margin y is not that mean you only get about 2% something return something like that. I don't know.

And Marianne has said something really important here too. And it's how I kind of look at a residential property portfolio. You might want to combine the residential and commercial to lower the risk. And with the residential portfolio you might have some growth properties that cost a little bit. And then you have some maybe regional yield based properties that overall the portfolio is going up in value and for itself. But I think the things that you mention are really relevant. I mean and as I said I'm not an expert in commercial property. But the fact that, you know, with most lenders you're paying commercial interest rates. There are some lenders, I think bank west, for instance, you know, has commercial rates at residential prices. A lot of the lenders require you to cross collateralize your home. So you're putting your home at risk if you want those lower rates. And when you're talking about a gross kind of like rental return of 10% and they're paying all the outgoings and interest rates are 6% and then the net return in theory is 4%. But you also have the insurances that you have to pay and any, you know, any other on costs that you can't pass on to them. So from a risk percentage point of view, you know, I've had friends that have gone and bought empty office sites and moved their business into the office site and then revalued the property as a rented property. And they've got this equity that they can then go and buy something else with. I mean, there's some clever strategies, but there's clever strategies in residential, residential property too. So I guess the thing is find yourself a commercial property expert who can give you the pros and cons rather than, you know, I want to buy a commercial property for you and has a vested interest in it. But just think, you know, I think there will be some really interesting, I'm going to say commercial and I'm going to lump everything in together. Office, retail, shopping strips and warehousing and storage. And you know, a friend and I flew to God, where do we go? Mount Isa in 2006 to look at storage sheds up there because there was a lot of people who were going up there to work in the mines and they had, you know, they're kind of moving up there to the camp, but they had all this extra stuff and so they were storing up there and it looked like a great opportunity. And you know, the returns look fantastic. But it turned out it was all kind of cash and we weren't sure, you know, who do you trust to take the, the money and we're not up there and you know, so you, we, we couldn't actually manage that from afar. You know, I've looked at the man shed. There's this rise of the man shed where men and I imagine women too go and they have the pool table or their cars and they can just go hang and have their own space, you know, post covered. That might be a thing. I know that there's some out near Tullamarine Airport. There's some Down It's a real people are buying land and building this kind of man shed things. So it's kind of a phenomenon. Will it come be a fad that comes and goes? Who knows? So I think there's so many opportunities out there. There's people who buy properties with options that you really just need to look at it. And if your self managed super fund is there for your retirement, to me it's not something that you go and put a risky investment into. You know, that would concern me. You know, if you want to be exposure to commercial property and commercial opportunities, maybe it's an opportunity to you know, get into it. I don't know. You know, I know nothing about shares, an index fund or, or a management fund who are professionals in making those type of investments.

Yeah. Now I was thinking that meaning have to have like under the portfolio it's good to have bit of everything like have resident commercial. And then if I have some thinking if have some fund then then we'll invest some in share as well. So in that case I have three lot of diverse portfolio. And then you have some more cash of both share wise if they need anything cash. And then because you can liquorize quicker then because with property you pretty much you have to hold for the long term for the retirement. So that's what I was thinking along the line of having my portfolio.

So I do more research. Mandy, I hate for you to just take my this one because as I said I'm not an expert in commercial. But just apply the, the rigor of the thinking, you know, what are the risks and how can I minimize those risks. So it might be a long term tenant. It might be, you know, something that you can do to make your commercial investment more attractive or possibly have multiple uses that you can, you know, pivot on if you need to pivot, you know, with that property. But something to consider.

Yeah like multi. Multi talent. Like you buy something unless you got multi rental income coming, unless you got losing one, you still got something that. So you get something multi in that sense.

Yeah, absolutely. And it's very similar to the Trident strategy. You know, I had three ways to make money out of that property. And you know, making money when you buy and making money by adding value and making money from the growth. You could apply that thinking to any property or any type of investment and say, you know, how do I minimize my risk to make sure that if I get one of these things wrong, if I can't put a, you know, a subdivision in place and sell off the back of the land, you know, what can I do with the property? So all of the things that you can do to minimize the risk would be things that I would consider.

But one thing sort of want to try to consent like to like I know resident property is always if you buy as you're in your like your strategy by three lot and you buy manufactured growth, you get the cash of the rental and then you still get the growth. But what I probably try to work out strategy wise in between those two type of investment which one will give a better return between in the long term like resident or commercial. And I'm like, like that's what I really want to know projection wise like if you know the outcome of the returning which give you a better outcome. That's what I'm trying to give me more.

Love that crystal ball when you find it. Yeah, pulled up a. Where did I do? I pulled up now I've got in my presentation a bit later I did a long term 90 year different asset classes and how they perform. But I just had a look at it and it doesn't include commercial. So it's only got cash and shares and property.

So yeah, yeah. I found that when you talk to people like my agent, if they specialize pro in resident they will say pro like resident. And then people specialize in commercial cost they're going to say commercials. So you have two different view. But what I'm trying to get is like combined with two which give you a better outcome in the long term. This is what I'm trying to get.

And as Marianne said, maybe it is putting a whole portfolio together that has a low risk and a high risk component to it. I just wouldn't be putting all of my money from the self managed super fund into the high risk component because that's the thing that's supposed to get you through the long term. And there's some really interesting economic reports. Like Peter Switzerland does a really good overview. He has a TV show and information that he does, you know, he looks at you know, the entire market and all the asset classes. So you might want to go and search him out and see what you know, his, his thoughts are. Because you know I'm sure that you'll find that he does pick up on those different asset classes including commercial. Also you might want to go to the RP Data website. They have a whole commercial news section.

Okay, that'd be good. So. So you. They have what free information you can go to have a look with them.

Yeah, yeah. Information in. So let me just See if I can find it here because I was looking at RP data earlier today and if I. Where are you guys? RP data. Corelogic. Okay, so if you go let me find this, I'm going to share my screen, my entire screen without audio. Okay. So I'm going to check. Just let me know that you can see this. Can you see that screen now?

No, nothing. Nothing this day.

Okay, so let me get back into here and see what I'm doing. Can't even find where I am. Okay. All right, well that's reason why is because I haven't actually shared it. Okay. All right, so let's have a quick little look at this. If you go to the RP data website, you can see here it's got a news section and under the news section there's the commercial news. Now I know that they do have, you know, things that they sell, etc. But you know, Granny Flats could boost property values by 30%. You know, Sydney Council. So there's a lot of information here around what's happening. And you know the other area that I would look in if you go to Heron Todd White month in review. So these guys every single month put out a fantastic report. So let's go. Heron Todd White month in review. Okay, this is February. But if you actually go into their reports, they have a whole section on commercial and they start with commercial information.

Okay.

And it'll tell you where the market is at the moment regionally, but it'll give you an update across the asset classes. And that's probably, you know, they would be the two pieces of information that I would go to the RP data commercial news because they also own. Is it con Condo. Oh gosh. Brain dump. They also own products. I'm sure they'll try to Cordell. Cordell, who does all of like the depreciation scheduling kind of information on commercial deals and you know, how much a deal would work cost. So they've actually looking at that information from the guys of having access to, seeing and costing out what other sites are sharing as well. So just be aware that there is information out there and you know, go and get it. So check out Switzer, check out commercial RP data and Heron Todd White. Go and sign up for their newsletter. Fantastic newsletter on a residential property. But also really good as well for the commercial property.

Okay, that's good. Thanks for that. So since I'm here, just gonna get what's what your kind of thought on the cow market at the moment with the resident.

On that. Are you okay, Hang tight.

Okay. Okay, that's good. So you present the market. Is it on the state?

I'll go into that now. Okay. Mandy will prevent. Okay, we'll say goodbye. Thank you so much for coming on live. It's so nice to have someone else's face with me here rather than people just seeing me boring. So I really appreciate your questions. Thank you.

Okay, thank you. Where's John?

He told me he's going to visit his mum today, so he's allowed out of lockdown, so his mum's recently moved into a home, so he's off to see her. So it's been months, so we're gonna forgive him.

Notice. Are you using a new platform? Is it for the. For this one? Are you using. This is a new platform you're using.

I've been using this belive platform for a couple of years now, so it allows me to share screens a lot easier. So. But I could even. I'm sure there's a way I can even share. I'll drop something in the notes later of how to get access to it, but it's a really great platform. I find it really easy. And you can share the. You can now put go live on YouTube as well and you can share the comments from people. So if people do, there should be. That link is get. So that's what Mandy's just done is she's clicked that link. If you want to come on and share your face. I know. I saw Trevor's face pop up a little earlier. So there you go. Okay, well, we'll say goodbye. Thank you so much.

Okay, again, you were doing the podcast before. Are you gonna do anything, Chance? Because you did the podcast before years ago and you stopped doing that. Are you gonna do anything?

You're tough. You're tough.

Your podcast before, now you stopped doing that. So I was wondering, do you thinking of doing that any future?

To be honest with you, you've probably heard our podcast and our podcast they did take about. We took weeks in putting them together to make sure that we could tell the guest story really well so that it was timeless. You could go back and listen to it time and time again. What has happened?

What.

Because it was taking so much effort and it was just John and I, you know, we had to let something go and that was the thing that we let go. But I tell you what we have done and I hope you got the email about this last week was I have show in stream once again and on solo. Okay. So I have started the JaneSlaxmith.com au page. And if you go in there, because everyone kept saying, oh, look, I don't know, you know, what you're doing. So I put together, you know, I put together a whole first home buyers show that people can go and have a look at. I put together the your home is your gold mine series that I put together for women's weekly a few years ago. I've got the podcast in here and as you rightly say, stop. There was 17 fantastic episodes, but keep going down here. The borrow my brain series is there. But if you go and open the vault right at this very moment, whilst we're talking, I actually had the secret vote. That's a vault that's opened. And for a lot of people who over the years have gone through and seen my ultimate guide to renovation course promotion, what we did was we ran, you know, three videos of showing people a property before the renovation, doing the renovation, and then what to do after the renovation. The fourth video was usually then saying, hey, if you want to join the ultimate guide to renovation course, come along. And I have actually added this property inspection checklist in here as a kind of helpful tool. But what you'll know is that this is actually, I've just opened up the secret vault for a short period of time. There's no course to be sold. I'm not running the courses. And I've also put in here for those who are dying for information. That was kind of on the podcast. John and I used to spend six to eight weeks putting together a webinar, you know, twice a year on what was happening in the market. You know, how you can, you know, here's a freedom plan for people in their 40s and 50s. The invisible hand. The things that are actually guiding the market. How to make profit for renovations. These, as I said, these webinars took us, you know, six to eight weeks to pull together with all the information. And they're timeless. So if you're hungry for information, there's that. And if you get really, really bored, I'm actually. I've actually been on five podcasts in the last, like, two months.

Yeah, I see. I see on the public couch. Them. Yeah, couch.

So I was just on. Ian Agarte has a new podcast called small is the new big. So a bit less about property, more about mindset, but you know how you do what you do. The. The guys at MCG Surveyors as well as, you know, I'm a mortgage broker, and the guys over at the mortgage broking group asked to talk to me about Being a mortgage broker, how I got into that as well. So there's a lot of information there. If you get really bored.

You can.

Go and find it. But you know. Yeah, lots of different podcasts. Even the panel that I was on with Shayna Blaze and Rich Harvey for Corp, that live recordings there. So you're not going to be without information. So I'd suggest that you go and check that out.

But no, I got to check the vouch. Yeah, I got to check the route. I love the ball your Brain series. I checked that. That was really good.

Oh, good, good, good.

Yeah, that was really helpful to say all different, different people, different type of, different type of strategy, different type of circumstances. So that was really good. Yeah. Well, I'm.

I'm currently recording new ones, so for people who are interested in applying for Borrow My Brain, just go to that James slacksmith.com site and it says apply here. So I've just recorded my second one. So once I get a few more, the second series in December will start. So you've got some Christmas listening.

Okay. So it's coming up soon in Christmas. Coming up.

You are such a hard task master. Thank you.

That's good. So I know what's coming up so I can follow up. Can go in to check it.

Yeah, it's definitely there. And make sure you get over to the club. There's so many things happening over there all the time as well.

Yeah, no, I was occasionally going to check on the. The club to check on what's what stuff coming up. New check on. I see you on the Facebook thing. What's what thing you're putting up on. That was really good. Thank you for. Thank you for the information you put provided. Thank you. Okay, thanks, Jen.

Thank you. Bye. Bye, Mandy. Really appreciate your question. And hard ones too. Well, that was Mandy. And so it's so nice to have a chat to people. Oh, who we got here? Is this Lee saying I missed out on the property couch discount? I'm so sorry, Lee. It was like a short discount thing. So keep your eye out. I'm sure that we'll be able to do something in the future with the guys over property couch. Actually, I'm catching up with Bryce this afternoon, so I might just see what's going on. So hang tight. Now, a couple of the other things that I wanted to let you know. So let's just check out what's happening in the club because I want you guys to get familiar with what's happening in the club where people are and what they're doing because I think it's really cool to be able to see what you know is, is happening out there and you know there's a lot of new people who are joining the club. You know Kath's over here talking about what to do in separation. Shane had a really great conversation about property managers and what to do. Now I'm going to come back to this poll because I've got a bit of a presentation I want to talk, talk you through and if you've got any questions please, you know, throw those up there but you know, make sure that you go and have a checkout in the club. There's always people in there. There's over a thousand people. This is fantastic. Have a look at what Krisley Higgins has just done. She's got this beautiful property that she's renovated. She says I'm not sure how this works but after taking advice from Jane to sell our underperforming investment property and apply the trident strategy, we landed this property. So just check it out. This is one of the renovations that have been done and I think it's quite fabulous. So you know, have a look at those. So good it won't stop. So but yeah, you know there's so many things that are happening in the club so go over there and have a look. It's a resource for you to be able to use and just for those who get a little bit confused on where to find information. If you go into the. I've got admin tools up here. If you, here's my whole, whole life here, it's popped up. If you go back into the club and you head over to the left hand side. Slowly, slowly, slowly. Well let's take this off solo whilst we work out what's going on here. But if you, if you head over to the club and. Happening in the club you'll be able to see that there's. So we're back but what I wanted to show you was that we've actually got and I'm just going to see if I can do this one more time to make sure that you can see it. But if you go over to the left hand side of your property success club what you'll see is that there is a lot of information there and yeah it's happening well so let me know if I'm still coming through live because I want to get to this presentation and share it with you. I think there's some really important things that we can be talking about at the moment and I really want you to be able to have a look at what is happening. So let's have a look and see if I can share my screen one more time. This time without audio, without at all going weird. And let's see what is happening here. So I'm going to share my screen. I'm going to run this PowerPoint presentation for you so that you can see it and let me know if you can see that PowerPoint presentation. So I'm going to show it now. So just let me know if you can see that. Guys, I'm keen to hear if you can or not. And because I think it's really important at the moment that we actually have a look at what's happening in the market and we have a look at what's happening in the world. And without being able to get all the information that everyone can get access to, it becomes really, really hard to be able to find information. So if you can see. Yes, we can see you. Thanks Diana, appreciate that. So what I want to do is I'm just going to go through this presentation because I think as I said, you know, we need to know what's happening in the world and there's so much information out there at the moment. I know that there is a considerable amount of information that just becomes more and more confusing. And so I really suggest that take the information from the media and have a look at it. But also just keep in mind that there's so much that people are sharing and so much information that it can just become like an absolute fire hose of information that affects you. So I really want you to be able to have a look at the information that's out there and see what's really happening. So, you know, as I said, you know, keep up to date with the information. One of the things that I look at every month when we have a chat is I look at what's happening with the early market indicators. Now the early market indicators are really important because what they do is they give you an idea of what is happening in the market and where we are at the moment. So as you can see here, you know, we've got all this pre listing activity. Now this pre listing activity as defined by CoreLogic as of last week is the, basically the people using the RP data site or the real estate agents generating valuation documents, they call them CMAs. And as you can see, we're getting back up here to almost March's level. So week on week there's been a 14% increase. Same week last year we're only 2% down and year to date, year on year, we're 11% down. But, but if you start looking at it, this is quite interesting because we're getting people and we're momentum of people going, oh, I'm going to start looking at properties, these newly advertised properties, those for sale month on month. We're up two and a half percent week from last week, up 5%. So these are really good to see that we're really getting back up to where we were previously. And obviously mortgage activity is increasing as well. Now I want to pick up on a few things that I think is really important, that I think is too important not to discuss. And that is the fact that, you know, in the last, I've attended over 27 webinars now on all things about property and remote working and the economy and lending and prop text and fintechs and the rise of the ibuyers and what's happening overseas. And I'm trying to keep an idea so they can inform you on what's happening and what are the conversations going on and what could affect your property investment decisions and portfolio that you currently hold so you can make a good assessment of what to do. So for me, you know, it's really important that you understand, you know, what the things are that are affecting you. So this is a part of a presentation I pulled together for my mentoring students when we spent a day together last weekend. And you know, this whole rise of the remote working, I'm wondering whether this regional boom that's being recorded is actually true or if it's misleading people. So, you know, when I have a look at, you know, the regional centers, you know, are the new black, this is what I'm hearing. You know, everyone's going to remote work and you know, the areas in the regions are so cheap we should consider this. Look, I'm not sure if this is just rhetoric or the fact is that this is a real commentary. So, you know, one of the interesting things actually about this was, you know, so Peter Switzer, Bernard Salt, Shane Oliver from AMP Capital that I've seen present in the last three weeks, they're all talking about this rise of the regional people who no longer have to travel to work every single day. The big offices are saying, come in once a week, come in once every two weeks, come in once every two months. Who knows they're taking the option to move interstate or they're taking the option to move regionally. Now, I spoke to a buyer's agent this morning based in Victoria, and I was asking him, you Know what is happening. And he said he just purchased for some people down in Torquay because the big employer had said, we only need you in one day a week and the wife would rather live near the beach. And they made a change to go out there. But as a mortgage broker and talking to people, you know, every single day across Australia, we're getting, we're not getting the sentiment that there's this huge regional move. So this had me thinking, how, how and why would people move to the regions and who could move to the region? So if you're thinking about who could move to the regions. Well, typically people who can move to the regions are those that are, you know, solid in their career, maybe 38 to 48 year olds, right? So you don't need to be bumping into the boss at the coffee machine to go, oh, remember me? When the next job opportunity comes up, you're actually cemented in your career, you have career progression, you know what the next step is, you know, you kind of set. And then I started thinking, well, for 38 to 48 year olds, where are they typically in the life journey? And most of them have kids going into high school or kids in high school. So I thought, well, why not have a look at what that actually looks like? So I did some analysis. And so I got the Census data from 2016 and all I did was actually move all the numbers down four years because 2016, 2020. So the kids that were 0 to 4 up to 2016 are out now in the 5 to 9 year old age group. So I kind of looked at this age group and said, okay, so this is the age group of people with kids in high school. There's over a million in Victoria and 1.3 million in New South Wales. Are these 38 to 48 year olds going to be moving regionally when they have kids in high school, you know, about to go into the arguably the toughest educational time of their lives, preparing themselves for the future. You know, are these people are actually going to be moving regionally and then depending on the regional high school to look after their kids. So in my mind, the answer to that is no. So I want you to have a look at the rhetoric of all of these people and experts that are saying there's going to be a huge move to the regions and then sit back and go, but are they actually moving? Which brings me to the actual poll that I mentioned to you, which I'll just share over here too. If you have a look at this poll, have a look at you know what the question here was, you know, I went out and statistically we're talking about 50 people voted. But you know, this is interesting. So, you know, for those who are actually, you know, looking at currently, are you thinking about staying put? Are you thinking about moving or not? So are you thinking about staying put? 33 people said, yep, you already living in the country and you're pretty happy. Six people said yes. Are you already living the sea change? And four people said yes. Are you going to move to the sea? Three people said yes. And are you going to move to the country? One person said yes. So as you can see, you know, there's all this kind of information that's out there and you know, we're consistently getting this kind of rhetoric that people moving to the regions. I'm just not seeing it. I'm not convinced at this stage. So in my opinion, wait and see. But when you start hearing about people going, I don't care about leaving the local community, the local schools and my friends and families and starting up in the middle of the Southern Highlands. When you start hearing people saying that and they're moving regionally, that's when you should be paying attention. Where are we headed? This is another really interesting question and I think immigration is going to be the biggest player in this. Now, if you check this out, obviously our immigration figures have gone down. We have had, you know, some, some issues that have been associated with the immigration and I think it's, you know, we know that, you know, we're in a stage at the moment where we've got people who cannot return to Australia because of the fact that, you know, they're on an education visa and the universities are closed. You know, we've got a lot of temporary skilled work visas. We've got people who usually came out here and working holidays. There's about 250,000 people who would normally come to Australia per year that are coming to Australia at the moment. Now, as you know, I hate just taking data and without doing anything with it. And I want to get to the bottom of what's really going on in the world. And so when I looked at this data and looked at what is the effect of immigration going forward and what does that look like to me, I wanted to understand how relevant is, is this to our long term property investing and what should we be thinking about? So I got on the phone to an immigration lawyer and said, tell me about your immigration lawyer business. He said 60% of the people he brings in are expert visa holders, engineers, a Lot of design people. It design people. 40% are students. I said. So of those 40% of students that come to Australia to learn in Australia, how many of those do you subsequently create a permanent residency visa application for? 100%. So people are using education as a way to get into Australia. Now think of Australia. Australia is essentially an island. We are, and we're in a bubble, hopefully. We seem to have Covert, you know, 2.0 under control. Now that Melbourne's back playing the game correctly, I think that we're going to see a lot of people looking to Australia for a safe economy, you know, a safe political system and health, safety. And one of the ways that they can do that is through an expert visa, skilled visa and through education. So watch this space. You know, the one of the webinars that I attended recently was by a new government group, the National Housing and Finance Group, and they did a huge presentation on population, the effect of COVID on population. They talk about this education and the fact that the students are leaving. And after the gfc, it took four years before the international students came back. I think once they open the borders and have their quarantine under control and the restrictions under control, you'll see that those students will return sooner because they'll be coming back to Australia or coming to Australia to get a safe haven for themselves and their families in the future. But I still think that we're going to be in for a world of pain for units, especially in capital cities. I think that the safety issues with cladding and all the other things we've seen in Sydney are going to create some problems. I think there's going to be an oversupply. You know, we know that a lot of those short term stays, Airbnb time properties have come off short term stay and gone on to the long term rental market. We know vacancy rates have blown out in Sydney, they've increased in the CBDs. Will people need to live in the CBDs? Arguably not, but you know, I think there's going to be some real incredible opportunities to see what people do in coming back from this. So keep that under advisement. I still think units are a concern and a worry and there will probably be an oversupply and potentially not will attend tenants that you want. Let's have a quick little chat about government intervention. You know, as I said, the government did step in. The budget is going to stimulate the economy. You know, home builder, first home loan deposit scheme, home seeker, you know, not home seeker, job seeker, jobkeeper, all of These things have gone to create a lot of funds in the community. They haven't all been spent. We are now saving more than we've ever saved, which is really interesting. And also, you know, one of the other things that, you know, you need to kind of keep in mind as well is there's going to be some long term investments going to be made. So there's a lot of infrastructure. This is from the Australian Post budget that is going to come out of this as well. So, you know, the government has been in a phase of, you know, absolute recovery, not recovery, sorry, response. So a lot of money was thrown in quickly with response. You know, Australia has had, you know, decades of essentially not being in a recession. We are now in a recession. Interviewed in on Tuesday from the rba, the government said that he believes we're currently coming out of the recession. We have to wait for the data to come through at the end of the year. But, you know, we went into a recession arguably for the two quarters and it does seem that we could be on the way out now. What does that mean for us? It means that, you know, there's going to be some optimism with, especially with Melbourne being released from the market. There's some really incredible optimism and I'll fill you in that in a second. But interest rates, the market is predicting that next Tuesday, Melbourne Cup Day, we will have a big win and that is that the interest rate rates come down again, not to zero and one point to 0.1%. So just be aware that there's a lot of things that are happening as well. We have a comment here. Let's just see what this says. USA has limited their intake of Chinese students a few months back. So no longer, no longer have. UK's Chinese students was up 27%. No. So there you go. So a little bit of insight from someone in the group as well. So, you know, I think we're going to respond to the international influx of people who want to come in. We have more money in our pockets. Interest rates are going to go down. The Governor, RBA has said that we're going to. Interest rates won't go up for three years. You know, Australian Mint printing the money, we're not borrowing the money from overseas. The payback is, you know, 0.25% of whatever. The interest rate that the money's being paid back at is very small. Yes, it will take decades to pay back. But we are in the response phase and we're about to go into a recovery phase. Lending the best interest duty requirements will still come in January, which means that mortgage brokers have to act in the best interest of their clients. Interestingly, banks don't need to do that because they can't do that because they've only got one product or a couple of loans and they can't give a complete analysis of the market. So they don't have to act in the best interest, just have to offer their products. So that legislation is still coming through but the responsible lending legislation is being tabled to be taken off the table really next year. And that is that, you know, this kind of prescriptive analysis that we've seen the people have to go through on their living expenses. People are going to have to take responsibility for their own ability to make repayments rather than depending on the lenders to assess that. So there will obviously be some assessment criteria but arguably it's going to come down a bit. So that's something good to see. And you know, we've got the kind of long term outlook and this is the one that I was mentioning to Mandy that I wanted you to have a look at and that is that, you know, over the last 90 years, you know, strange shares and Australian residential properties have essentially been head to head. So 10.7, 10.9% investment and Australian bonds are down. Obviously, you know, long term bonds are down, cash rate is down as well. So you know, we're kind of looking at the sense that where can you put your investments? I feel terribly for those in retirement who have had, you know, the nest egg kind of diminishing value quite considerably. But the fact of the matter is that, you know, we, we are in a position where there are some upsides that we need to consider. As I said, you know, I've been definitely giving my mentoring students clients a wait and see and wait and hold position and at the moment we're in a move position which is fantastic. Interest rates are low. So you know, the government survival has moved into recovery spending. We are going to be targeted from an immigration point of view. There are, is some economic viability. I think the rental demand, especially for units is going to. Sorry, rental demand is going to increase but there's some risk on units. There's going to be people who are less likely to want to put their money into, you know, everything that's out there. So just keep that in mind. And I also want to share with you, you let me just show you this because I think this is really important. I did this analysis on, I had Peter Kalisis come and talk to my mentoring students in July. And he suggested that if you went back over the last 33 years of all the census data that was available in Australia at the time that you would actually see that it, that there was different cities over a five year time frame that outperformed the others. And it was, you know, you would never know. Every, every city's kind of had its day I guess is what we're saying here. So we look at, you know, December 1989 to December 2019, you know, and I've classified these as the best is red. The second best capital growth in that five year period is orange and then the third is yellow. So you can see here, Melbourne won in, you know, 2089 to 2019. Over that 30 year period, you know, we've got all these five year kind of 5, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30 years, you know, but at any stage here you can see that Sydney and Melbourne and Hobart have all had, you know, their time in the sun. If you take depending on what period of time that you take now even Darwin, you know, if you have a look at this overall over that those period of time, you know, Darwin had came in and Brisbane came in with some high reports as well. So you know, this is really interesting to look at and I think, you know, Hobart arguably has had some really fantastic growth that's been associated with the tourism, Mona, all of those things that have come in. So you know, it's kind of ranked second over that period of time of 30 years. We've got, you know, over the 25 year period and over the 30 year period and over a 20 year period, you know, Melbourne just keeps consistently performing. Brisbane just hasn't really had that full day in the sun, you know, over when we're looking over those five years, 10 year, 15 year periods. So I guess what I'm just trying to show you here is that good quality investments don't change. Buying the right property in the right area, minimizing your risk, going to the target market, which is the most likely market to rent and to buy your future property when you sell it is the market that you should look at. So look at the typical property. So the fundamentals of good property investing that I started teaching 15 years ago in my book here, wrote about in my book eight years ago, it's all still relevant today. So just be aware that the good fundamentals never change and that the reality is that just keep watching the information but digesting the information, not as a consumer that you're going to take action but as this is one Part of the information you can put in your toolbox, which is going to allow you to have a huge overview of what's happening in the market. And as I said, I'm attending so many different presentations at the moment and just trying to get a gauge of what's happening. Some of the rhetoric that I'm hearing around remote work and the rise of the regionals, the people who are saying it, they're not prepared to leave. The people who I'm seeing in my mortgage business, they're not moving regionally. There is some opportunity out there. It's great. You know, I took over kind of helping out with a property management of a property in Dubbo recently and I was at the Strata meeting and, you know, everyone's saying it's all buoyant, it's so great, you know, and I was speaking to one of my business coaches and he was saying, you know, it's fantastic what's happening in Dubbo. Drove through, everyone's buying the activities there. I'm like, are they buying houses or are they buying coffees? He's like, oh, there's lineups outside of the cafe. Like, well, what are they buying? Well, Sydneyside is going on a bit of a trip. So, you know, listen to what people are saying, listen to the news, read the information, but pull it all together and just ask yourself, you know, that kind of does this make sense? And just keep checking if it does, because it might. And there might be a change in the market and we might see that rise. But, you know, the pain and gain report shows us, you know, that's recently come out from CoreLogic, that houses are still the things that make. Make the money, not units. Capital city properties make the money, have less likelihood to losing money, not houses regionally. So, you know, time and time again, just check the market, check the information, double check before you take any action. But that would be my encouragement for you today. So that's about a wrap from me. Unless I have any other little questions that pop up in my chat there, I don't see any. But, you know, this is what the. These kind of monthly get togethers are about, so that you can ask questions live and that we can answer the questions for you during the month, please type them in to the club because that's what that's there for you as a resource, as you know. You know, I try to be in there as often as possible when I'm not in there. There's thousands of other people who can assist you in there if you'd like. To, to apply for the Borrow My Brain series, please do that. Just go onto thejaneslagsmith.com and click on Borrow My Brain and go and fill in the application form because I would love to be able to help more and more people. And, you know, I just. There is an absolute optimism, you know, definitely here in Melbourne, but definitely in the economy. The resilience of the market, the resilience of people, the resilience of our savings, you know, all of these things are stacking up and that's not taking away the fact that we've had losses of life. It's not taking away from the fact that people have lost their job. It's not taking away the fact that, you know, mentally this has been a really tough time for a lot of people. But the reality is that, you know, we've pulled through this and we've really had an opportunity to, you know, get involved and watch what can happen in moments of confusion and moments of panic and, you know, resource up for it. So, you know, I know I'm not, you know, an exciting commentator and telling everyone to run out and buy and run out and sell or anything, but, you know, as an advocate of just looking at the good quality information and sitting back and going, does this make sense? You know, I hope I've given you enough information for you to look at your portfolio and your future portfolio. Now, I did mention that I'd spoken to a buyer's agent in Melbourne this morning just to get a feel for what is happening in the market since lockdown has been released. And he gave me an example that he had spoken to a real estate agent last week. He was buying on behalf of a client and a property was offered at $1.1 million to them and they looked at it and decided it wasn't going to fit there portfolio. And the agent came back on Monday afternoon saying since we're out of lockdown now, it's, it's really, you know, you, if you want to move on this, get me the 1.1 now, otherwise I can't, I won't get it for you. And they went back the following day and it sold for 1.254. So in less than two or three days that Melbourne, you know, good quality properties in good quality areas, the typical property for the areas have recovered the 7% that's reportedly been reduced by, and some. So the market is moving. The next big hurdle will be supply. So I think we're going to see, especially Melbourne, a bit of a hike for a period of time. Good quality properties are selling in good quality areas. People who are making the choice to go to those satellite cities that are more affordable, the Wollongongs, the Newcastles, the Geelongs, they pretty much already made that decision to do that and have been doing that exodus for a period of time. The home builder scheme has allowed some people to get into the market. I still think that buying established and adding value is a great strategy. Renovation is my strategy. Some people do that through development subdivisions or granny flats. If you want to hear a little bit about that, head over to Giuseppe's Borrow My Brain interview because he had a property that was looking at maybe subdividing. We had a really interesting conversation about that. But you know, there's so many opportunities out there and I think that the market's really turning and the optimism is back. So if you're thinking about buying, this might be the time for you to start getting your research hat on and looking at the market. And as you know, we've got a number of ways that we can help you. But yeah, reach out and as always, really great chatting to you, Trevor. Thank you. It's great to have you there. Thanks guys. Appreciate you saying thanks and fantastic. Great to see all these comments coming through. I can't wait to talk to you next month because I think there's going to be some really exciting things that we can report on on all the markets and yeah, I look forward to supporting you continually. Watch for my Sunday emails and yeah, yeah, as always, here is to your property success. Bye for now and I hope you have a great month. See you soon.