Mark MossChief Bitcoin Strategist Satsuma | Partner BTCOppFund | ArchLending | BlockwareTeam | 100M+ YouTube

97% of the Fiber Was Sitting Unused

19 Sept 2026 · 1 min

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In this brief commentary, Mark Moss cites an NBER study showing that about 97% of installed fiber capacity was idle in 2002, and that the figure remained essentially unchanged the following year. He frames this as a classic case of catastrophic overbuilding: investors poured capital into telecom infrastructure far ahead of demand, leading to a massive debt crisis, company failures, and wiped‑out Wall Street positions. Despite the financial collapse, the physical fiber, network equipment, and data centers did not disappear; they persisted as dormant assets, poised to serve future demand when market conditions improve.

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According to an NBER paper, roughly 97% of the installed fiber capacity was sitting unused in 2002. In the next year, 97% wasn't even being used. From the perspective of the investors who financed it, that looked like a catastrophic overbuilding, and it was financially. It was companies failed, right? Telecom debt blew up. Investors got wiped out. Wall Street had clearly paid way too much for way too much capacity. Way too early. But the fiber, the networks, the servers, etc., they didn't disappear when the stocks crashed. They were still there and they were waiting for demand.