Mark Moss projects Bitcoin could hit $1 million by 2030 if it captures 1% of a $1.6 quadrillion global store of value basket. He uses Uber and Airbnb's rapid market capture as models, arguing that even modest Bitcoin adoption would drive massive price gains as the money supply expands.
So if you look at just that basket, in 2010 it was like $300 trillion. By 2020 it was about $700 trillion. Today it's over a quadrillion. And, you know, the CBO, Congressional Budget Office, projects out the budget, the deficit, the debt, right, till 20— for 30 years, right? So if you look at the rate that they project the money supply to continue increasing, and then sort of take that past trajectory with the money supply and sort of— and then extrapolate that forward, then the money— then the store value basket should be $1.6 quadrillion by 2030, $3.5 quadrillion by 2040, and like $8.5 quadrillion by 2050. The CBO projects that far. So then the question is, okay, if it's $8.5 quadrillion, what percentage of that basket do we think Bitcoin could get to, right? So Uber and Airbnb both captured 10% of their market in less than 10 years. And doesn't mean taxis or hotels are gone. Just Uber and Airbnb exist, right? Can Bitcoin take— can it take 10%? Can it take 1%?
Yeah, take 1% of that. 1% is $85 trillion, but that's going to be worth what? What do you think the inflation is going to be?
Well, that's including the inflation, right? So that's how I got—
Is the CBO budget accounts for inflation on total debt?
I consider inflation— I'm like old school Austrian, right? So inflation is the money supply, right? So that's why I'm taking the money supply growth. I'm not taking whatever CPI CPI is or whatever. Now the Fed's going to change it to PCE minus whatever.
But in that modeling out, just going to 1%, what is it at today? Like 10th of a percent?
I said to get to $1 million Bitcoin by 2030 would take 1% of that basket. So the basket grows, but also we get a bigger share. So can we go from 1% to 8% of the basket?
So the basket's growing and our percentage that we're capturing of the basket continues to grow. So $10 million would be 10% of that basket.
Oh, $10 million Bitcoin. Bitcoin. Yeah. Yeah. So if we can get to 8% by 2040, that'd be $14 million per Bitcoin. If you want to learn more about the Wealth Operating System, then comment "ready" and I'll send you an invite to the free training I have in the workshop coming up, and I'll see you there.
