Mark MossChief Bitcoin Strategist Satsuma | Partner BTCOppFund | ArchLending | BlockwareTeam | 100M+ YouTube

The Most Reliable Bitcoin Price Indicator

15 Jun 2026 · 1 min

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In this solo market analysis, Mark Moss discusses the MVRV (market value to realized value) score, an on‑chain metric that reflects the profit margin of Bitcoin holders. He explains how the MVRV is calculated, reviews its behavior during past Bitcoin peaks in 2011, 2013, and 2015, and shows that the current MVRV reading is far below those historic peak zones, indicating that Bitcoin is not near a market top. Moss cautions viewers not to rely on a single indicator, urging them to monitor a suite of metrics, but highlights the MVRV as a key chart to watch.

Chapters

Bitcoin's been down off its all-time high, and a lot of people want to know, are we going into this 4-year bear market cycle, or are we still going higher? Rather than look at all the headlines, let's look at what the data tells us. This is called the MVRV score, one of the most widely used charts. It's on-chain data, and the MVRV is the market value to the realized value. So it shows what the profit is. Now, when we look back through past Bitcoin peaks, we can see in 2011, 2013, 2015, each one of these marked a peak. But what we can see here today is that we got nowhere back into this zone right here, which starts to show us where the market peak is. As a matter of fact, we're way down here, really low today. So based off of this indicator, which is only one, the MVRV Score shows us that we're nowhere near the peak. And don't just look at one indicator, look at a bunch. But this is one you should keep your eye on, and I'm watching it.